Tracking ridership recovery (2022-2023)

[west point]

Va DOT reported Virginia supported trains had increase of 30% in number of riders.

 

[Acela150]

Why are Keystone expenses rising so much? Is it because Amtrak sometimes has to use an extra locomotive due to Metroliner cab car reliability?

Right now it's a combination of reasons.. Crew shortages in HAR. I've had to spend the night in Harrisburg several times because they didn't have an AC to work a train to Harrisburg. It's more common for Conductors right now to take a train to Harrisburg and have to stay the night there. Factor in that their is a major track work project ongoing on the PH line between CORK (Lancaster) and RHEEMS (West of Mt. Joy), lack of state workers riding the trains these days, and lack of commuters from Dowingtown, Exton, Paoli, etc. to Philly and NYC factors in as well.

 

[Septa9739]

In July the following routes report YTD ridership above July 2019.

1. Ethan Allen Express
2. Vermonter
3. Maple Leaf
4. Berkshire Flyer (vs. last year)
5. Springfield Shuttles
6. Empire South
7. Heartland Flyer
8. Roanoke Regionals
9. Newport News Regionals
10. Norfolk Regionals
11. Missouri River Runner
12. Carolinian
13. Piedmont
14. Auto Train

The following were within 5%

1. NER
2. Downeaster
3. Illini/Saluki
4. Richmond Regionals
5. CONO
6. Lakeshore Limited

July (June came out late and then I forgot about it) was a very strong month for Amtrak’s recovery. The NER had a stellar month at 115% of July 2019 ridership (surely a record), to a YTD total of 7,318,400 passengers on the year, 99% of 2019 ridership. The Acela was drug along for the ride to 98% on the month, 90% on the year. The Acela is commanding higher fares, but a pittance of what it once collected. NEC traffic is roaring back with a vengeance. $128 is now the typical walk up fare PHL-NYP. There has been a noticeable rise is traffic to Trenton on SEPTA’s Trenton Line, especially on Saturday, presumably people realizing $24.75<$128.

Ethan Allen continues to run about 175% of 2019 numbers. Vermonter is at 105% vs. 2019, Empire West 114%. Downeaster has fought back to 95%. The Keystone continues to be ugly at 70% YTD, but 75% on the month. I expect levels to return to the 80’s by end of year. Empire South has been pacing 2019 for most of the year. Likewise on the Lincoln Service 81% and 92%. Hiawatha sits at 71%, Illini/Saluki 99% and climbing, Wolverine 84% despite some true horror stories over the last year, IL Zephyr 62%, Heartland Flyer 106%, PacSurf a miraculous 50%, Cascades 77% YTD but 92% July to July and higher if equipment were available, Capitol Corridor 51% and pretty steady (any guesses?), San Joaquin 78%, Blue Water 91%, Roanoke 143%, Newport News 103%, Norfolk 213%, Richmond 98%, Missouri River Runner 97%, Pennsylvanian 90%, Pere Marquette 88%, Carolinian 122%, and Piedmont 132%. The state sector shows major and continuing recovery in commutation, robust leisure demand, and some conspicuous soft spots.

Long distance is ugly. Star 88%, Cardinal 77% (fallout over discontinuance of Hoosier State wreaking CHI-IND?), Meteor 78% (missing just about a month of ridership due to late restart. Pretty strong considering that), Builder 80% (ridership in free fall since 2013), Capitol (and Capital) Limited (Availability) 63% (I wonder why), Zephyr 81%, Chief 75%, CONO 98%, Eagle(tte) 90%, Sunset 85%, Starlight 80%, LSL 99%, Palmetto 90%, Crescent 93%, Auto Train 120%. There’s this strange correlation between having equipment and having ridership… very interesting. Also of note is the Auto Train’s operating ratio of about 115%. The number is sketchy because gross ticket revenue is greater than operating revenue, which should be impossible.

 

[west point]

Septa" Great work with all time you took. Maybe revenue higher than operating revenue due to future reservations paid for is actually unearned transportation / passenger revenue. That is paid for transportation but not yet taken. It is an item on all airline financial reports but see no location of it on any Amtrak reports. Most Cr Card companies do hold back some but unknown how much now? Now how bus substitutions are handled is unknow by this poster. Are the buses listed as an operating expense and revenue earned? We may get an idea after looking at Crescent for August.

About the LD trains. How many are constrained due to lack of equipment and higher than normal fares? Available seat miles between the various years are one measurement you could compare for each route. Capitol is one obvious example. Another measurement IMO is revenue passenger miles of various trains. Prime example is Crescent. Before Lynchburg service and after LYH number of passengers nearly same but revenue passenger miles increased by eliminating most local Crescent passengers LYH <> WASH.

Wonder if the NEC increase is due to available seat miles equal or even higher?

 

[Septa9739]

2019 was still the opaque Anderson era “reports” with no miles numbers at all. Otherwise I’d look into it. I think all LD’s are affected save the Auto Train (due to actually making money), Palmetto (all Amfleet), and CONO (axle counts prohibit consist reduction). The LSL and Meteor (I think) have taken turns being fully equipped this year and that is reflected in their relative strength. Everything else is or was missing from one sleeper (minimal impact on ridership) to a couple sleepers and couple coaches (almost half the original consist). I suspect NER seat miles are up. In 2019 seven or eight cars was a typical consist. Nowadays I see a lot of nine car consists, some eights, with the occasional 10 mixed in to keep it interesting. That said, not all trains have returned to the schedule, so it is likely less than I am perceiving. The Acela‘s miles are definitely down, missing 3 round trips NYP-WAS due to the pains of age. For all my distaste of it, it likely would have been a record month, if they were operating.

 

[Septa9739]

In August the following routes report YTD ridership above August 2019:

1. Northeast Regional (113% on the month, likely a record)
2. Ethan Allen Express (150% on the month, consistent with the year)
3. Vermonter (88% on the month, likely off due to storm-related issues)
4. Maple Leaf (115% on the month)
5. Berkshire Flyer (vs. last year)
6. Springfield Shuttles (131% on the month, 119% on the year)
7. Empire South (110% on the month, 101% on the year)
8. Heartland Flyer (97% on the month)
9. Roanoke Regionals (154% on the month, consistent with the year)
10. Newport News Regionals (109% on the month, a little ahead of the year)
11. Norfolk Regionals (150% on the month, consistent with the year)
12. Richmond Regionals (139% on the month, about 101% on the year)
13. Carolinian (207% on the month, 127% on the year)
14. Piedmont (133% on the month, in line with the year)
15. Auto Train (107% on the month, 119% on the year)

The following were within 5%:

1. Missouri River Runner (111% on the month)
2. Downeaster (101% on the month)
3. Illini/Saluki (104% on the month)
4. CONO (110% on the month)
5. Lakeshore Limited (88% on the month)

August was another very strong month for Amtrak’s recovery. The NER had a stellar month at 114% of August 2019 ridership, likely a monthly record, to a YTD total of 8,207,200 passengers on the year, 101% of 2019 ridership. The Acela was drug along for the ride to 99% on the month. Note well both services are still missing frequencies, so ridership per train is up astronomically. Very pleased I grabbed ShareFares for December at $17/head, round trip. Maybe the commuter specials will reappear for the Holidays this year. The NER will, in all likelihood set its first annual record of the 2020’s, and its 9th in 12 years. The Acela is nowhere near its 2019 high (when it just barely topped the 2014 record), but may reach full recovery September to September.

Ethan Allen and Vermonter cooled considerably. I believe August was the month interrupted by storms, deluges, and trackwork. Empire West strengthens to 115% on the month. Downeaster has surged to 115%, but likely can’t pull a record on the year. The Keystone budged little from the rest of the summer. SEPTA is noticeably busier on Mondays since Comcast came back. We shall see what the September numbers show. I still expect levels to return to the 80’s by end of year. Empire South has been pacing 2019 for most of the year, but popped to 110% in August. Lincoln Service collapsed to 57%. Hiawatha climbed to 76%, Wolverine slid to 76% (signal work?) , IL Zephyr holds at 63%, Heartland Flyer slips to 97%, PacSurf a miraculous 65% (amazing what happens when you open the railroad), Cascades slides to 85%, still remarkable given circumstances , Capitol Corridor up a tick 52% and pretty steady, San Joaquin ditto at 79%, Blue Water ups to 96%, growth eased in Virginia, but still good for a monthly record, Missouri River Runner 111% (the advantage of the Ann Rutledge setup on 318/319 or secular growth), Pennsylvanian slides to 78% and Pere Marquette 81%, Carolinian pops to 207%, and Piedmont steady at 132%. The NEC and SS sectors show accelerating recovery, especially in the Northeast, and continued strength in the Southeast. California is a persistent mess for ridership. This year will bring plenty of records, but next year should be an all around smash, particularly if gasoline stays where it is.

Long distance continues to be hideous, worse than last month. Star slides to 81%, Cardinal creeps up to 76%, Meteor steady at 79%, Builder 75% (ridership in free fall since 2013), Capitol (and Capital) Limited (Availability) plummets to an embarrassing 41%, Zephyr drops to 72%, Chief 67%, CONO a rare bright spot at 110% (equipment makes such a difference), Eagle(tte) 92%, Sunset a big drop to 67%, Starlight 53% (no idea why) , LSL drops to 88%, Palmetto 95%, Crescent a big fall to 75%, Auto Train 107%. On average long distance trains lost about 7 percentage points August to August vs July to July. This sector is becoming critical.

 

[TheMalahat]

I apologize as you've probably outlined this somewhere, but I'm assuming those LD numbers are largely based on insufficient equipment? The Coast Starlight is the only route I actually have any knowledge/observations, but 80% of 2019 would be reflective of the shorter train?

 

[jis]

From a slide presented by Larry Chestler at the RPA Symposium LD Ridership in FY19 was 4.55 Million. In FY23 it is estimated that it will come in a little over 3.9 Million.

The numbers for the pandemic years were:

• FY20: 2.69 Million
• FY21: 2.24 Million
• FY22: 3.49 Million

 

[Septa9739]

I agree with the 3.9 figure. I don’t know when the symposium was and what figures were used, but it seems to have been a great guess. To address @TheMalahat it seems at this point to be equipment related, but there were also major disruptions in January to all services out of CHI, and also a major suspension of the Starlight (I forget when) which was doing well prior.

 

[Willbridge]

I agree with the 3.9 figure. I don’t know when the symposium was and what figures were used, but it seems to have been a great guess. To address @TheMalahat it seems at this point to be equipment related, but there were also major disruptions in January to all services out of CHI, and also a major suspension of the Starlight (I forget when) which was doing well prior.

As a typical example of the current situation, on this Wednesday evening, Train 11 from PDX to EUG on coming Sunday is sold out in Coach and sleeper space starts at over $400. And this is an "off" season!

 

[jis]

I agree with the 3.9 figure. I don’t know when the symposium was and what figures were used, but it seems to have been a great guess. To address @TheMalahat it seems at this point to be equipment related, but there were also major disruptions in January to all services out of CHI, and also a major suspension of the Starlight (I forget when) which was doing well prior.

The Symposium was last Sunday. We were told that the final number has not been officially published yet, but it is likely to be around 3.9 Million.

 

[Septa9739]

The End of Year Ridership Report is out! Amtrak produced 10 annual Route ridership records this year, the most since 2014 of my numbers are correct. Systemwide ridership is off 4,000,000 or 15ish percent from 2019. The Northeast Regional skyrocketed to over 9,000,000 riders for the first time ever. This is its 9th record since 2012. Remember that it began the year well behind 2019. Ridership is exploding. I would not be surprised to see 9,600,000 next year. The Ethan Allen, Vermonter, Empire West, Empire South, Springfield Shuttles (its first since 2013 and a large one), Roanoke Regionals, Norfolk Regionals, Piedmont, and AutoTrain also set new records. The first is the beneficiary of a major lucrative expansion. The next three are all secular growth. The Shuttles are (I think) seeing the benefit of pre-COVID expansion. Roanoke, Norfolk, and Piedmont have each received an additional frequency during COVID, but growth is above what one would expect from just the expansion. The AutoTrain’s new market post COVID and advertising is helpful. The Illini/Saluki and Heartland Flyer had their best year in 8. The Newport Regionals had their best year since 2014, the first full year of Norfolk service. Maybe Anderson has some scoop on VA for us. The Carolinian had its best in 10 and will gun for the record next year. The CONO had its best year in 7 and is just off the all time record. Other bright spots include the Downeaster, which will likely set its first record in since 2014 next year and the LSL at almost full recovery. The MO River Runner is near its 2019 level, but still 25% off the 2013 record.

The news isn’t all good though. Commuter corridors are still struggling, the worst being the Capitol Corridor sitting at just about half its 2019 ridership. Keystone is struggling, but there are some positive signs. Wolverine is making a good run. Hiawatha and Lincoln are off by about 20% a piece. PacSurf ridership slid (with the bluffs) compared to 2022. The Cascades just can’t meet demand, as WillBridge has so dutifully reported. Hopefully the new round trips come soon. Long distance is just ugly, like really ugly, with ridership coming in right at RPA’s expectation of 3,900,000.

There is reason to hope in 2024. The NER can only be stopped by capacity. Long distance restorations are due to accelerate. Equipment expansion will likely improve reliability of long distance trains and Midwest corridors.

 

[OmahaRoad]

Thanks for the great report, @Septa9739 ! I have to say that I have really enjoyed reading your ridership tracking reports this year. They have always given me a lot to chew on when it comes to what's going on in the Amtrak world. In fact, if I recall correctly, your ridership reports may have been how I found this forum initially (maybe from searching something related to Amtrak ridership?)!

The growth in NC with the Piedmont + Carolinian tandem is really quite something--I moved here last year and seeing the (still nascent, but impressive) 'train culture' developing here is amazing! Barring a literal (accident/infra. failure) or bureaucratic/governmental catastrophe, ridership will only keep setting records. I am almost certain that the Carolinian will set its all-time record next year!

On the other side, I share your hope about 2024! I have a good feeling that the Hiawatha and Lincoln's recovery will accelerate in 2024, and that the Michigan services will continue to come along well. So long as equipment expansion and restoration can continue as planned, and there's no natural disasters or storms that disrupt trains like the PacSurf and the Builder, etc., I really think long distance can continue to improve too.

Of course, being from Minnesota, I'm also excited and cautiously hopeful that the TCMC/'Great River'/second train between St. Paul and Chicago will, as planned, start running sometime in '24. I'm not holding my breath for earlier in the year, but late in Q2 would be really nice. I think that the second CHI-MSP train will be a smash hit, and thankfully the estimated first-year ridership is "only" 124,000--better to underestimate. So long as the second train (which will be an extension of a Hiawatha trip) runs with the usual consist of 6 cars, and doesn't experience unforeseen issues, I could see the first 12 calendar months of ridership being in the 140-150 range. In addition to the scheduled run being a little shorter than the EB today, I think a lot of Twin Cities residents flat-out don't know about the EB, associate it with being late, or wouldn't consider taking it both ways due to the very late (now ~11:15 p.m.) arrival time from Chicago.

 

[west point]

Thoughts that Amtrak would like to debunk.

During the pandemic Amtrak made a very bad decision to not maintain all equipment because someone though that there would be no ridership rebound once the pandemic became less of a problem,

The NEC has as higher fares per mile so as pandemic faded Amtrak made efforts to see it has had enough equipment on trains. So, if a potential passenger cannot get the exact time of departure he can get a reservation close to that time. NEC Nothing else counts. That explains the NEC traffic rebound.

The eastern LD trains have had their equipment passed over for restoration to service to allow the NEC equipment restorations.

We all wonder how many more passengers would have been carried on the eastern trains if capacity had not been constrained. The lack of 60 single level sleepers assigned to eastern train lines is revenue lost. That is 75 sleepers at 80 % available = 60 sleepers. Eastern caches another matter. It would be interesting to find out how many Amfleet-2s have operated on the NEC instead of on assigned LD trains. How many AM-1s were assigned to LD trains before the pandemic. Often Crescent had 2 that were closed off south of ATL.

Superliner trains another example of not keeping them up to date. How many passengers lost? The Capitol down to one coach now has no excuse.

The nationwide shortage of dinners, lounges, etc is also a point. But Amtrak finds it can sell out most of its trains without those non-revenue cars.

Locos another matter with lack of keeping the P-42s in good operating order. Amtrak is still showing its lack of contingency plans to prevent loco train cancellations that have occurred because the ALC-42s are having many problems. Anyone with knowledge knows that high teck has many problems geetting to work properly.

 

[Septa9739]

I think most of what @west point has said is true, but I think there is a significant demand aspect to the NEC recovery. I don’t think it’s appropriate to vilify the railroad for assigning more equipment to a route with capacity constrains, surging demand, and nominal profitability. I have not seen an AMII on an NER at any time lately, and I don’t know for certain but I have no recollection of AMI’s on the Crescent pre-pandemic. I think it is still short an AMII. Further, I believe Bear is responsible for Amfleet restorations, but Hialeah is for Viewliner. Please correct me if wrong. The Lakeshore was fully equipped for most of the year and had very few sellouts, the Meteor for part of the year and neither topped records (the Meteor looked pretty soft actually). The Cardinal is down a coach and it shows, but also has new competition from 151 and 66. The East has challenges, but all in all is in decent shape. It’s close to pre-pandemic capacity, but has yet to realize promised expansions. The West is a whole other matter and the Superliner debacle is certainly at this point a billion dollar disaster.

 

[NativeSon5859]

Crescent is running with three coaches. Two are in use out of/into NOL, and the third is saved for ATL passengers. The train used to have four, pre-pandemic. Sleeper capacity is actually up due to the rooms sold in the bag dorm.

 

[west point]

Crescent is running with three coaches. Two are in use out of/into NOL, and the third is saved for ATL passengers. The train used to have four, pre-pandemic. Sleeper capacity is actually up due to the rooms sold in the bag dorm.

Every time on Crescent first 2 coaches were AM-2s and last 2 not open NOL <> ATL AM-1s.

 

[jis]

Every time on Crescent first 2 coaches were AM-2s and last 2 not open NOL <> ATL AM-1s.

The Crescent I traveled by to and from Meridian appeared to have 3 Amfleet II Coaches. I walked by them in Atlanta to visit the locomotive. I was traveling by Sleeper in the 10 car.

 

[City of Miami]

I stopped counting at 150 people this morning on the CVS platform waiting for ner156. The most I've ever seen. This is after first 151 then 20 came through and picked up dozens of pax each. 156 was 27 minutes late for no apparent reason except the meet with 151. No freight traffic at all, I think it's just the meets of 8 trains Amtrak has set up and NS dispatchers don't care, can't be bothered. VA has invested a lot of money here and is getting middling return. CSX dispatchers do better with their 2 of the 8

 

[City of Miami]

The Crescent I traveled by to and from Meridian appeared to have 3 Amfleet II Coaches. I walked by them in Atlanta to visit the locomotive. I was traveling by Sleeper in the 10 car.

20 had 3 coaches (plus cafe 2 sleepers and bagdorm) this morning as usual. I'd say they loaded 50 pax at CVS.

 

[Thirdrail7]

he Northeast Regional skyrocketed to over 9,000,000 riders for the first time ever. This is its 9th record since 2012. Remember that it began the year well behind 2019. Ridership is exploding. I would not be surprised to see 9,600,000 next year.

The NEC has as higher fares per mile so as pandemic faded Amtrak made efforts to see it has had enough equipment on trains. So, if a potential passenger cannot get the exact time of departure he can get a reservation close to that time. NEC Nothing else counts. That explains the NEC traffic rebound.

I like most of West Point's post, but one thing pops into mind when I think about the NEC ridership numbers: The low, late night/early morning fares. It has really made a difference in ridership. In some areas, an Amtrak may cost less than a commuter train between the same points.

 

[user 14106]

I like most of West Point's post, but one thing pops into mind when I think about the NEC ridership numbers: The low, late night/early morning fares. It has really made a difference in ridership. In some areas, an Amtrak may cost less than a commuter train between the same points.

It's really made a difference out this way on the SPG line. Prior to the pandemic the lowest fare one could expect from here to New York was between $32 and $36. Now I can routinely get $17 fares to and from NYP ($15 with my RPA discount) when I take day trips. This is cheaper than riding using the flat CTrail fares to New Haven and changing to Metro North and also often cheaper than driving to New Haven and taking Metro North (which many people in my area do.) If you take 143 or 146 on the weekend the portion from the SPG line station is essentially free as the fares from any SPG line station match the fare from New Haven. With the new "segment" based pricing under the recent fare program changes the through trains are typically less costly than the 400 series trains requiring a connection at New Haven (as with the segment pricing the flat CTDOT Hartford Line fare gets added to the NHV - NYP fare - prior to the new pricing this line had through pricing for intercity passengers heading along the NEC.)

 

[railiner]

It's really made a difference out this way on the SPG line. Prior to the pandemic the lowest fare one could expect from here to New York was between $32 and $36. Now I can routinely get $17 fares to and from NYP ($15 with my RPA discount) when I take day trips. This is cheaper than riding using the flat CTrail fares to New Haven and changing to Metro North and also often cheaper than driving to New Haven and taking Metro North (which many people in my area do.) If you take 143 or 146 on the weekend the portion from the SPG line station is essentially free as the fares from any SPG line station match the fare from New Haven. With the new "segment" based pricing under the recent fare program changes the through trains are typically less costly than the 400 series trains requiring a connection at New Haven (as with the segment pricing the flat CTDOT Hartford Line fare gets added to the NHV - NYP fare - prior to the new pricing this line had through pricing for intercity passengers heading along the NEC.)

Nice that you have so many options. Not many places in the country do…

 

[user 14106]

Nice that you have so many options. Not many places in the country do…

Yes those of us in the Northeast are fortunate. My posting was in the context of the NEC which was the subject of the exchange. Other places in the country are deserving of more options. I’d discourage an NEC vs. National network us vs. them attitude. Many of us in the Northeast advocate for and are supporters of more service in places outside the Northeast.