The NTSB report was filled with errors and baseless claims:
https://trn.trains.com/news/news-wi...enges-ntsb-finding-in-cascade-accident-report
Talgo report here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/14VXFiyvqSx8DcfUNlffiQ8Ji4TueIJeD/view?usp=sharing
It includes examples of similar crashes with standard equipment where truck separation and fatalities occurred.
The biggest issue here is speed, though. The passive tilting of the Talgo trains allow them to transit between Seattle and Portland in less time. That is why people like them. The Coast Starlight, with standard equipment is scheduled for 4:15 on the segment, while Cascades is 3:30. People here like the style and comfort of the Talgos, and many are going to be dissapointed when they book their next trip and end up on 30 year-old Horizon cars with no bistro/dining, and 15-30 minutes extra travel time on every trip. I've checked the OTP for the past few days, and 500/505 have consistently been between 15 and 30min late on the PDX/SEA route. This isn't a coincidence. The equipment is slower. From what I've seen in blog posts and social media, the reaction to this equipment change is universally negative. The regular riders are not happy.
So, aside from the water route south of Tacoma, what is the advantage of the train over Bolt Bus now? I was a frequent traveler on the PDX/SEA route, and people choosing the train do so because it is a premium service. The bus is almost always cheaper, and now it will be faster. Even after Covid ends and travel recovers, this is going to be a disaster for ridership. Before the crash, Cascades had the best farebox recovery % of any state route. You might save some maintenance dollars by ditching the Talgos, but premium ridership will collapse, and we will end up paying just as much state subsidy for an inferior service. I understand the desire for standardized equipment, but I think WSDOT is going to shoot themselves in the foot here.
7/10: 505 delayed 25m into EUG, no cause given.
7/11: 500 delayed 30m due to congestion south of Centralia.
7/11: 505 delayed 55m due to mechanical issues between PDX and ORC.
7/12: 505 delayed 25m, likely due to the cancellation of 500 same-day, which was due to mechanical issues.
7/13: 505 delayed 30m due to rail congestion/speed restrictions
7/14: 505 delayed 2h10m due to trespass incident @ TAC
7/15: 505 delayed 30m, no cause given
7/16: 505 delayed 30m due to mechanical issues @ TUK
In the last week, 505 has been delayed every single day. Most of the delays are due to mechanical defects. Two delays were given no explanation, potentially supporting what you have to say regarding the lack of tilting tech.
Say what you want about the
Horizon subfleet, but they don't break that often even in the middle of a Midwestern winter.
I agree with you having a standardized fleet makes the most sense from an operational and financial stand point. I'm not as knowledgable on airline mechanics as I am on airline customer service, and railroad mechanics and customer service. But I do think that several of the larger Boeings share a common part pool don't they between models?
Amtrak's fleet really is a hodgepodge of various fleets that reflect the poor management it's had at various times in the past that prevented them from having a standard fleet which like you said benefits from economies of scale on parts management. The shops where this is shown to be the worst would be Los Angeles which has one single level Amfleet/Horizon trainset, three long distance superliner sets, and the large amount of California Cars that call it home. Washington, DC being another prime example of a terminal with only one Superliner train, and the rest being Amfleet I's which don't have a large commonality between parts.
Fleet simplification makes sense from a business stand point, and it makes it far easier for the operations department. I wouldn't be surprised to see the superliners be replaced by single level equipment for this exact purpose.
I'm currently in ACS myself but operations is where my heart is at. Most aircraft variants have part and type rating commonality in order to ensure the greatest amount of efficiency possible from both a cost and labor standpoint. For example:
The B737-700, -800, and -900ER are all one type rating (meaning a B737 Next Gen-rated pilot can fly all three variants). Same goes for the A319, A320, and A321, the B757/767-300ER. I believe the B767-400ER and B777-200/300 are on the same type rating as well.
Generally speaking, those variants are
mechanically the same aircraft. As a result, you can keep the spare-parts sets and labor pools as small as possible. It's a neat little system.
If Amtrak were to proceed with this approach, they would save boatloads of cash in the long run. They would be able to:
-Retire most, if not all, of the old equipment
-Simplify car shops
-Simplify parts stores and training
-Simplify crew training
From a customer service/experience standpoint:
-Provide an updated, modern, and uniform service nationwide
-Use saved funds to help pare down other expenses or to take on large capital projects such as ROW acquisition from Porter to Chicago, overhaul food and beverage service, or even start new services in underserved areas like the
Front Range.
I would bet that Siemens is going to get the Amfleet/Superliner replacement order, and I truly hope they go back to single level. I've seen the interior of the new cars and I am extremely impressed with what they're producing, and I personally think they're a shoo-in for the job.