Acela II RFP information announcement

[leemell]

Schumer? embarrassed? That would be the day! With friends like Schumer, who needs any enemies? It is entirely possible that this is Schumer way of politically interfering in what should be a business decision, to make it the way he wants it. And we wonder why Amtrak is a mess? Seriously it is this sort of thing that causes many people, who otherwise like passenger rail, want to see Amtrak simply go away and be replaced by something else.

That was my thought as soon as I saw Schumer's name mentioned. I would even call it probable as means to influence the decision.

There's another possibility: Someone setup Schumer to make him look bad.

This is NYS after all.

That is not possible.

 

[A Voice]

In my opinion, Amtrak could have gone with a slightly longer train-set (9 units instead of an expected 8), and lengthened the platforms in Washington, D.C. as well as realigned the switches there. I really do bet that Amtrak Acela ridership will only continue to grow, and longer train-sets will help with the mobility of the Northeast Corridor.

Andrew, lengthening the high level platforms on the upper level at DC Union Station is not a simple item. Can only be done after the parking garage over the track is removed AFAIK. Which is part of the ambitious mulit-decade long plan for a major rebuild of the track and platform end of DC Union Station. Until WAS and BOS are rebuilt, and for that matter, the Acela maintenance facilities at those 2 stations are lengthened, the length constraints for new HSR trainsets are an issue.

While lengthening platforms and maintenance facilities would be difficult and thus carry a hefty price tag, we're already talking about spending $2.5 billion plus here, on trainsets (and related investment) which will be in service for many decades to come. Rather than limit passenger capacity for the duration (or at least for many years), it seems like it might be worthwhile to spend the money now (within reason) to relocate service facilities and expand platforms. Anyone care to guess what all that work would actually cost?

Certainly the sets may be lengthened in the future, but such "second phase" projects have a tendency not to happen (more Viewliners in the 90's, the Acela coaches, etc.).

 

[jis]

Remember that the first phase of Acela almost did not happen too. It happened only because Canada came up with a financing scheme. So be very careful before proposing various ornaments on the Christmas tree. Amtrak capital planning staff are not idiots. They have decades of experience playing this fine balancing game. Armchair quarterbacking based on insufficient information about the real constraints that they are working under while quite interesting is also quite easy to lead to proposals that are infeasible in the real world.

 

[Andrew]

Well, one way how Amtrak is increasing Acela seating capacity is to increase the size of the fleet by 40%, from 20 train-sets to 28 train-sets.

 

[Acela150]

It will be interesting to see the backlash IF Alstom is not selected as the builder. I honestly think Chucky from NY threw Amtrak under the bus in a way.

Now I'm going to take a gander of a guess that Amtrak is looking for Half Hourly Service with the 28 set order.

 

[jis]

Amtrak has been quoted by the International Railway Journal stating that there are two shortlisted vendors under consideration and no final decision has been made yet.

All that remains to be seen is how much harm Chucky has caused the process by running his motor mouth.

 

[frequentflyer]

So what will the cars look like? AGV like the Italo?

 

[keelhauled]

We don't even know who's building the things yet and you want to know what they'll look like?

 

[frequentflyer]

We don't even know who's building the things yet and you want to know what they'll look like?

Well it does look like its leaning toward Alstom unless political aware Amtrak wants tick off a senior democratic senator.

 

[Hal]

We don't even know who's building the things yet and you want to know what they'll look like?

Well it does look like its leaning toward Alstom unless political aware Amtrak wants tick off a senior democratic senator.

I would guess that they have to consider all bidders that meet the specifications. Also if there are two that they can't pick one over the other based on the Senator. That's not to say that they could not find reason to pick that one. Consider too that other states have senior Democrat senators.

 

[Andrew]

I wonder how long these train-sets will be in revenue service.

Also, how long is a typical electric locomotive expected to be in revenue service?

 

[Ryan]

What color will they be painted? Cloth seats or leather?

 

[Hal]

I wonder how long these train-sets will be in revenue service.

Also, how long is a typical electric locomotive expected to be in revenue service?

Are you for real?

 

[Hal]

What color will they be painted? Cloth seats or leather?

Where will the quiet car be located? [emoji3]

 

[A Voice]

Also, what will be the seating arrangement in the cafe or dinette car, and what will be on the menu?

 

[Paulus]

Also, how long is a typical electric locomotive expected to be in revenue service?

About 30 years

 

[railbuck]

I wonder how long these train-sets will be in revenue service.

Around 200 meters.

 

[WoodyinNYC]

I wonder how long these train-sets will be in revenue service.

Also, how long is a typical electric locomotive expected to be in revenue service?

You may still be looking at the wrong end of this thing.

When the shiny new Acela IIs enter service, costs will drop substantially. Capacity will increase enormously. In Year One, revenue will be much higher, costs will be lower, and the net -- call it what, "Operating surplus not counting a lot of stuff" -- will be a lot more cash money in Amtrak's hands.

Until they are retired (technologically obsolete or worn out, or for various other good reasons), the Acela IIs will continue to spin off operating surpluses from Year One, which could be 2020, to Year Last, which could be 2050.

Due to the time value of money, the operating surplus of each future year is not worth the same.

The operating surplus captured in Year One is worth the most. The surplus funds can be immediately reinvested in other projects -- let's say various capital investments, from longer platforms and more ADA compliant stuff like elevators, to new and added track, better signals, bridges and culverts, tunnels, etc. The new capital investments will themselves cut operating costs and/or add speed and capacity. They will each offer a return on investment over their useful lives, which could be 30 years, or 100 years, or 10 years. And the additional funds from Year Two will also be invested, and Year Three, and so on.

Any operating surplus from the Acela IIs starting in 2020 will improve Amtrak for many years to come. But any surplus from Year Last, the year before they go to scrap, will not have so much of an effect, because investing that money can't give so many years of returns in the time frame of the living.

Of course, the time value of money can most easily be understood in personal terms: If you inherit money this year, you can use the funds to pay for college, pay off student loans, eliminate that credit card debt with the 16% annual interest, make a big down payment on your home so that future monthly payments are smaller, stash some in an IRA for retirement, and so forth. Or, you could wait another 30 years for Grandma to die and leave you the inheritance. The time value of money says that sooner is almost always better. Long life to our Grandmothers notwithstanding. LOL.

Another aspect of time, of course, is that over some period we are all dead, so better to grab what we can while we're young and able, because tomorrow ...

That now is better includes Acelas and Acela IIs, which could become technologically obsolete in ways we can't quite imagine today. But we have seen very rapid change in HSR equipment since the first Bullet Trains and TGVs.

(I'm not sure that the standard 30-year lifetime for a regular electric locomotive that you asked about actually applies to HSR, which aren't "typical".)

btw The financing deals can be set up using a standard 30-year payback, like a home mortgage. So Amtrak buys a bunch of equipment, say, 70 electric locomotives, and it must set aside, on the books, millions of dollars toward the yearly "mortgage" payment. In fact, Amtrak benefits over 30 years because the yearly savings from lower costs and higher revenues may actually be much, much more than is booked for yearly payments. The savings can actually pay off the cost of the new equipment within 6 years or so. In effect, this plan allows Amtrak to use the borrowed money for other needs over the remaining 20-some-odd years.

So I'm back to saying, the shiny new Acelas -- faster, lighter, safer, cheaper to operate and maintain, with greater capacity per trainset and more trainsets -- will have a very great impact during the first 20 years of their operating lives. After that, who knows? And why worry so much?

If we're so smart as to see the future -- like how Acela IIs will fit into the world 20 or 30 years or more ahead -- we shouldn't waste our genius insights on blogs; we should be investing on Wall Street or in Silicon Valley start-ups, getting very rich now, and not waiting for 2050.

 

[west point]

Benefits not apparent are:

1. As track and structure improves then the wear and tear on all trains Acela, Regionals, & computer decreases. Less maintenance means more train sets available.

2. Once reliable scheduling of ACELAs and to lesser extent Regionals decreases en route timing then Amtrak turns trains so they can depart trains sooner from the termination stations of BOS, NYP, & WASH than now.

3.. The above is the equivalent of additional train sets without buying any more just better utilization.

4. Can attract more passengers mostly from persons now on the road as air travel has lost about all it will loose. Especially thru NYP traffic that is only about 10% now.

 

[afigg]

What color will they be painted? Cloth seats or leather?

The first class seats should be in rich Corinthian leather of course.

 

[Andrew]

I wonder how long these train-sets will be in revenue service.

Also, how long is a typical electric locomotive expected to be in revenue service?

You may still be looking at the wrong end of this thing.

When the shiny new Acela IIs enter service, costs will drop substantially. Capacity will increase enormously. In Year One, revenue will be much higher, costs will be lower, and the net -- call it what, "Operating surplus not counting a lot of stuff" -- will be a lot more cash money in Amtrak's hands.

Until they are retired (technologically obsolete or worn out, or for various other good reasons), the Acela IIs will continue to spin off operating surpluses from Year One, which could be 2020, to Year Last, which could be 2050.

Due to the time value of money, the operating surplus of each future year is not worth the same.

The operating surplus captured in Year One is worth the most. The surplus funds can be immediately reinvested in other projects -- let's say various capital investments, from longer platforms and more ADA compliant stuff like elevators, to new and added track, better signals, bridges and culverts, tunnels, etc. The new capital investments will themselves cut operating costs and/or add speed and capacity. They will each offer a return on investment over their useful lives, which could be 30 years, or 100 years, or 10 years. And the additional funds from Year Two will also be invested, and Year Three, and so on.

Any operating surplus from the Acela IIs starting in 2020 will improve Amtrak for many years to come. But any surplus from Year Last, the year before they go to scrap, will not have so much of an effect, because investing that money can't give so many years of returns in the time frame of the living.

Of course, the time value of money can most easily be understood in personal terms: If you inherit money this year, you can use the funds to pay for college, pay off student loans, eliminate that credit card debt with the 16% annual interest, make a big down payment on your home so that future monthly payments are smaller, stash some in an IRA for retirement, and so forth. Or, you could wait another 30 years for Grandma to die and leave you the inheritance. The time value of money says that sooner is almost always better. Long life to our Grandmothers notwithstanding. LOL.

Another aspect of time, of course, is that over some period we are all dead, so better to grab what we can while we're young and able, because tomorrow ...

That now is better includes Acelas and Acela IIs, which could become technologically obsolete in ways we can't quite imagine today. But we have seen very rapid change in HSR equipment since the first Bullet Trains and TGVs.

(I'm not sure that the standard 30-year lifetime for a regular electric locomotive that you asked about actually applies to HSR, which aren't "typical".)

btw The financing deals can be set up using a standard 30-year payback, like a home mortgage. So Amtrak buys a bunch of equipment, say, 70 electric locomotives, and it must set aside, on the books, millions of dollars toward the yearly "mortgage" payment. In fact, Amtrak benefits over 30 years because the yearly savings from lower costs and higher revenues may actually be much, much more than is booked for yearly payments. The savings can actually pay off the cost of the new equipment within 6 years or so. In effect, this plan allows Amtrak to use the borrowed money for other needs over the remaining 20-some-odd years.

So I'm back to saying, the shiny new Acelas -- faster, lighter, safer, cheaper to operate and maintain, with greater capacity per trainset and more trainsets -- will have a very great impact during the first 20 years of their operating lives. After that, who knows? And why worry so much?

If we're so smart as to see the future -- like how Acela IIs will fit into the world 20 or 30 years or more ahead -- we shouldn't waste our genius insights on blogs; we should be investing on Wall Street or in Silicon Valley start-ups, getting very rich now, and not waiting for 2050.

That was well said!

I wonder how difficult and expensive it would be to lengthen the platforms and reconfigure the switches at Washington Union Station to enable 830 or 850 feet Acela Express Train-sets to board and disembark.

 

[west point]

Lengthen platforms ? Very long range plans are being considered. Last looked It will first require 3 - 4 complete new sets of puzzle switches beyond present ones. So to connect all tracks look for 48+ (?) sets of puzzle switches to allow access from all inbound tracks to every platform. That may not even include duplicate backups. At better than $1M per set add up the cost. Then there may be additional new switches for Ivy street access/ Then there will be the track work needed. As well new CAT for power. Then the phased removal of unused CAT and switches,

Only then can platform work begin.

The additional platforms for future HSR and the lower level. situation will also need resolving. Total cost of master plan? Billions and Billions as our favorite astronomer used to say.j.

 

[Andrew]

Lengthen platforms ? Very long range plans are being considered. Last looked It will first require 3 - 4 complete new sets of puzzle switches beyond present ones. So to connect all tracks look for 48+ (?) sets of puzzle switches to allow access from all inbound tracks to every platform. That may not even include duplicate backups. At better than $1M per set add up the cost. Then there may be additional new switches for Ivy street access/ Then there will be the track work needed. As well new CAT for power. Then the phased removal of unused CAT and switches,

Only then can platform work begin.

The additional platforms for future HSR and the lower level. situation will also need resolving. Total cost of master plan? Billions and Billions as our favorite astronomer used to say.j.

At least Amtrak is thinking about this, or, as President Bill Clinton would say, Amtrak is "Building a bridge to the future."

For the RFP, was Amtrak looking at an aluminum specification?

 

[jis]

For the RFP, was Amtrak looking at an aluminum specification?

I spent considerable time talking to a senior Amtrak person in capital programs and futures regarding the RFP. The RFP generally gave requirements in terms of performance, capacity, end to end running time capability and such. In particular it did not specify details of technology, materials etc. It asked the vendors to propose a solution that meets the requirements. So no, they did not say anything about whether it should be steel, aluminum or Carbon Fiber or whatever. It just has to meet the FRA Tier III requirements together with the exceptions agreed upon between Amtrak and FRA for operation on the NEC in the presence of Tier II equipment above 125mph.

 

[Andrew]

The Amtrak Procurement Website said than an expansion of Ivy Yard is going to happen to get ready for additional Acela Train-sets and the Gateway Project...