Airo - Amfleet I replacement Siemens Inter City Trainsets (ICT) (2-3Q 2024)

[Johnny]

I envision a concern with single sourcing from Siemens more from a competitive point of view than anything else - if Amtrak wants to be able to buy from more than one or two companies, they need to actually buy from more than one or two companies every once in a while. If they don't, Siemens will scale up bigger than their competitors and push smaller players into niche segments or out of the US market, possibly with a side of acquisitions.

Same reason Lockheed Martin and Boeing both get military contracts, just a different sector.

Hopefully Amtrak likes the Airos and options another several dozen sets, plus cars to lengthen some of the shorter sets - expanded VA service, Scranton, more Keystone frequency, there's a ton of places that might want more Airo capacity come 2030 or so, and that keeps Siemens busy longer.

Wouldn't longer Airo sets increase track defects?

Also, I do predict that Amtrak will want to have at least two manufactures for equipment operation out of busy stations, such as Chicago. And since Amtrak is looking to order a bilevel (and stainless steel) train-set, this leaves Alstom, Kawasaki, and possibly Stadler as the likely picks. (I don't think CAF will win this contract and Hitachi is still very new to the American market).

 

[John Santos]

Wouldn't longer Airo sets increase track defects?

More trains, heavier trains, longer trains, faster trains all increase the wear of the tracks. The main causes of track defects are wear, corrosion, manufacturing and material defects (metal fatigue fractures in the rails, ties, etc. that grow slowly worse until something breaks), derailments, erosion undermining the tracks and time. Longer trains will aggravate all of these issue, but there is nothing unique about Airo sets.

 

[thefirewarde]

Some Airo sets intended for on and off corridor operation are only six cars long, which is more what I figured they'd lengthen.

 

[west point]

Adding cars that weigh so much less than loaded freight cars will do very little additional damage. Now adding another loco is another matter.

 

[jis]

The fact that more, longer.heavier etc. trains will cause more damage to track is not an argument for not running more, heavier,longer trains. It merely says that there will be an additional cost for maintaining the tracks more frequently, The focus should be on providing service to meet demand. Otherwise the entire passenger service will start looking like the brain damaged management of food service on Amtrak.

In an extreme example, clearly, limiting speed on the NEC to 79mph would save considerable amount of money on track maintenance, incidentally leading also to massive hemorrhaging of riders and the ability to charge premium fares . But is that a reason to get rid of Acela and Regionals services as they are today and downgrade everything to 79mph? I should hope not.

Similar argument goes for highways and airports and every other piece of infrastructure.

 

[Lcon]

Much of the routes that Airo will operate on are overlapping freight routes using the same trackage. A 6 car long passenger train has nothing on a mile long fully loaded double engine freight train. Siemens website gives an estimated weight for an Airo train as about 527 tons. A freight train weight can vary dramatically based on load yet that range is normally between 3000 to 18,000 tons!
Given that Airo’s impact might as well be a rounding error.

 

[thefirewarde]

The impact to schedules outside of electric territory is likely more impactful than the additional track wear, if Airo consists go from six cars to eight or more. East Coast LD trains and in certain areas freight will continue to use more than eight cars with higher axle loading.

Acela 2 will also have more cars but won't have more axle loading. It might still have higher total stress on the track due to speed.

I suppose it's possible a second APV and locomotive pair could be added, replacing the cab control car. If you assume one Charger can easily haul six coaches in diesel mode, this would allow twelve car consists - sixteen, if you put eight cars per locomotive. However there's currently more benefit to adding capacity via frequency and I don't expect Amtrak to run that sort of setup. Maybe a future iteration of a Florida service or Montreal service needs that capacity and can't just run additional trips?

 

[Harmon Shay]

Some Airo sets intended for on and off corridor operation are only six cars long, which is more what I figured they'd lengthen.

I think Mr. Gardner has said eight cars will be the standard Airo Northeast Regional consist. I know that the Cascades are supposed to have six.

 

[west point]

I think Mr. Gardner has said eight cars will be the standard Airo Northeast Regional consist. I know that the Cascades are supposed to have six.

The question becomes will the Airo train sets at 8 cars have the same capacity as a present regional with 8 cars?

 

[daybeers]

That's correct. I do hope that Amtrak chooses to purchase additional cars in the future. NERs frequently run with 9 or 10 cars currently.

 

[Amtrak25]

I don't like the idea of fixed train sets. The lack of flexibility only works with Acela. We have seen Regional train lengths vary over the last 10 years between 6 and 10 cars, and are variously 8 - 10 cars today. I don't frankly care what they do in Europe and Asia. But we are supposed to like it as we do their slide-out bottom seats and unnecessarily narrow Venture 2+1 Business class seats.

That said, the NEC and Empire Service consists will all be short 1 to 2 cars, and Amtrak will happily Yield Management everyone else off to a curbside bus service, whoever that is, until they go bankrupt. Amtrak behaves like the private sector, until they demand their government check to keep running.

Empire trains particularly can be booked up except for local Albany- Buffalo traffic, yet be 50% empty past Albany because they need cut coaches and Amtrak forgot trains have couplers. With the battery coach coupled to the locomotive, that won't happen. Since intercity bus service west of Albany is mostly a thing of the past, there's Enterprise rentals and the NY Thruway. Since the highway dominated NYS-DOT funds the Empire Corridor, they are content with that.

 

[Mailliw]

The question becomes will the Airo train sets at 8 cars have the same capacity as a present regional with 8 cars?

I believe they'll actually have a higher capacity due to more space in the coaches being available for passengers. And that's assuming the cafe cars don't have extra revenue seating.

 

[Amtrak25]

Venture coaches have 68 seats, despite one bathroom instead of two. Amfleet and Horizon have 72.

 

[thefirewarde]

There are Airo sets for trains like the Carolinian which are six car consists - per Wikipedia, the fleet is planned:

Northeast Regional Extensions: 26 six-car trainsets, will include a cab car and catenary power car.
Northeast Regional: 32 eight-car trainsets, will include a cab car and catenary power car.
Empire Corridor: 17 six-car trainsets, will include a cab car and battery car.
Amtrak Cascades: 8 six-car trainsets, will include a cab car.

I think with the improvements planned for several NEC extensions (including the Carolinian, Vermonter, etc - things like longer platforms and overnight facilities in Charlotte) there'll be a desire to extend some of those trains within the next fifteen years - it's plausible Vermont and Canada get the Vermonter running past the border by 2035, for instance and that would likely justify an eight car consist. Or Scranton, or additional VA frequencies, or... So, if Amtrak wants a unified fleet with more daily trains in more places, they'll have to add more coaches. Having a larger fleet would also give flexibility to break up trainsets to put more capacity on certain lines, though keeping e.g. all the New York battery consists interchangeable makes sense - just bump them all up to seven or eight coaches as needed. Likewise Richmond and points south or Manassas Line and points south or Keystone consists should probably match too.

I think adding one spare car per consist to the order would be a good start. But that depends on continued funding and a successful initial rollout.

 

[jis]

There is nothing in the current order to cover currently non-existent service like Scranton (if and when it happens). Those will require additional equipment order.

Crossing Canadian border by Vermonter does not imply any need for additional cars if the Adirondack experience is any indication. Except for occasional exceptional days there is at most 2 to 3 cars worth of passengers going to Canada, if that. The time difference between Air and Rail between NY and Montreal is so huge that it is unlikely that Rail will get any significant share of that market easily specially given the border crossing malarkey that is imposed on rail.. It will still be an useful service for quite a number of people, but probably not more than 6 cars worth for a long time to come.

 

[west point]

Isn't the Carolinian currently limited to a loco and 6 cars due to limitastions on the storage track at CLT. If and when the CLT downtown station is finally opened then maybe more cars can be added to the Carolinian? it often is sold out south of WAS with Amtrak sometimes addig cars WAS and north.

 

[thefirewarde]

Some routes like the Carolinian do sell out during peak season already - from the time Charlotte Gateway opens to the time the S-Line opens, you're likely to want an eight car (or more) trainset. Once Raleigh gets six or more daily round trips, per the S-Line plan, you probably can go down to shorter trains for a decade.

On the Vermonter side, there's folks that would take a one seat ride to DC or Philly that won't accept a transfer in NYC as the Adirondack requires presently. Plus add the synergistic effect of multiple daily trains, and the strongly implied/not quite required changes that would be in place before the Vermonter could cross the border, and better VIA service... It's not as far fetched as it sounds at first glance.

Per Amtrak's 2024 outlook, "Our contracts with the manufacturers include options to purchase up to an additional 130 additional Amtrak Airo trainsets and up to 50 more ALC-42s." https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/...g/Amtrak-Service-Asset-Line-Plans-FY24-29.pdf pg. 89

Where would Amtrak use 130 additional Airos if not for expanded service? I'll grant you they may buy some Airos for "Northeast Regional" service and then charge equipment fees for extending trips to Scranton or Roanoke or etc, but that's still expanding service.

 

[Amtrak25]

With a baggage car - 7.

 

[Harmon Shay]

That's correct. I do hope that Amtrak chooses to purchase additional cars in the future. NERs frequently run with 9 or 10 cars currently.

I'm curious to know if the Northeast Regionals fill 8 o9 9 cars south of DC and north of, say, New Haven. Just wondering how many empty seats are being dragged around in this now mostly fixed-consist era.