April 2017 Monthly Performance Report

[afigg]

The April 2017 Monthly Performance report is out. It was posted on the website several days ago, so Amtrak appears to be getting back to putting out the monthly reports around the end of the following month. I suspect the delays in getting the MPRs out were due to the new CFO and other new managers.

I have not posted a MPR summary in a while, so here goes. April was a good month for ridership, revenue, and actually breaking (nominally) even for the month. But Easter travel is a big part of that with Easter falling in April this year while Easter was in March in 2016. The shift in Easter distorts the month to month comparisons, a fairer one would be to combine the March & April 2017 numbers against the 2016 combined numbers if anyone were to go to the trouble.

According to the report, Amtrak had a nominal net adjusted operating surplus of $1.7 million for the month. The net loss was actually $67.4 million before depreciation and other non-cash adjustments are backed out. Ticket revenue and ridership were ahead of budget which implies they have a more realistic budget projection this year.

Summary stats from the April 2017 monthly report by category.

Ridership and Revenue percentage increase/decrease for the month of April compared to 2016:
System: ridership +8.8, revenue: +10.7%
Acela: ridership +4.0%, revenue: +2.1%
NE Regional: ridership +7.2%, revenue +13.6%
State supported corridors: ridership +10.0%, revenue +15.6%
LD trains: ridership +11.7%, revenue +14.0%

Big month overall for the state supported corridors with WAS-NFK and San Joaquins both showing >20% increase in ridership. The May 2017 and upcoming summer numbers for the NEC and other routes that operate out of NYP are going to be affected by the track problems and summer work blitz. April may be the last really good month for the NEC until the NYP track repair bltix is done.

Ridership and Revenue summary for FY2017 from October to April:
System: ridership: +2.1%; revenue: +3.0%
Acela: ridership -2.2%; revenue: +0.3%
NE Regional: ridership +3.0%; revenue +6.2%
State supported corridors: ridership +2.5%; revenue +3.5%
LD trains: ridership +2.5%; revenue +1.6%

Not a good report for On-Time Performance. Most routes show worse OTP for the month of April than last year. The worse OTP among the LD trains was for the AutoTrain, which was 20%.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

The April 2017 Monthly Performance report is out. It was posted on the website several days ago, so Amtrak appears to be getting back to putting out the monthly reports around the end of the following month. I suspect the delays in getting the MPRs out were due to the new CFO and other new managers.

Ridership and Revenue percentage increase/decrease for the month of April compared to 2016:

LD trains: ridership +11.7%, revenue +14.0%

Someone get this report to the Trump budget team!

 

[Acela150]

I would take a educated guess that Easter has a major effect on this.

 

[Bob Dylan]

The April 2017 Monthly Performance report is out. It was posted on the website several days ago, so Amtrak appears to be getting back to putting out the monthly reports around the end of the following month. I suspect the delays in getting the MPRs out were due to the new CFO and other new managers.

Ridership and Revenue percentage increase/decrease for the month of April compared to 2016:

LD trains: ridership +11.7%, revenue +14.0%

Someone get this report to the Trump budget team!

Don't bother! They have their own Alternate Facts and Figures!

 

[Devil's Advocate]

The April 2017 Monthly Performance report is out. It was posted on the website several days ago, so Amtrak appears to be getting back to putting out the monthly reports around the end of the following month. I suspect the delays in getting the MPRs out were due to the new CFO and other new managers.

Ridership and Revenue percentage increase/decrease for the month of April compared to 2016:

LD trains: ridership +11.7%, revenue +14.0%

Someone get this report to the Trump budget team!

Don't bother! They have their own Alternate Facts and Figures!

Trump doesn't seem to represent a definable ideology with rational goals based on actual facts and figures. Instead he seems to represent people who despise the very idea of a functioning federal government. Steve Bannon already stated that the Trump administration's primary goal is to undermine and subvert America's regulatory policies and enforcement agencies as much as possible. Dozens of countries and hundreds of businesses tried to convince Trump to remain in the Paris accord, including several examples of regions and companies Trump actively claims to be protecting, and we all saw how that turned out. Amtrak is a tiny insignificant speck compared to that level of lobbying. Trump doesn't care about Amtrak. If he did he or someone in his administration would be talking about it. Which is probably why he outsourced Amtrak's future to a think tank that will identify precisely how much Amtrak can be defunded at current support levels and then lobby hard to help meet that goal.

 

[wdscott]

The April 2017 Monthly Performance report is out. It was posted on the website several days ago, so Amtrak appears to be getting back to putting out the monthly reports around the end of the following month. I suspect the delays in getting the MPRs out were due to the new CFO and other new managers.

Ridership and Revenue percentage increase/decrease for the month of April compared to 2016:

LD trains: ridership +11.7%, revenue +14.0%

Someone get this report to the Trump budget team!

Don't bother! They have their own Alternate Facts and Figures!

Trump doesn't seem to represent a definable ideology with rational goals based on actual facts and figures. Instead he seems to represent people who despise the very idea of a functioning federal government. Steve Bannon already stated that the Trump administration's primary goal is to undermine and subvert America's regulatory policies and enforcement agencies as much as possible. Dozens of countries and hundreds of businesses tried to convince Trump to remain in the Paris accord, including several examples of regions and companies Trump actively claims to be protecting, and we all saw how that turned out. Amtrak is a tiny insignificant speck compared to that level of lobbying. Trump doesn't care about Amtrak. If he did he or someone in his administration would be talking about it. Which is probably why he outsourced Amtrak's future to a think tank that will identify precisely how much Amtrak can be defunded at current support levels and then lobby hard to help meet that goal.

WTF???

 

[afigg]

Trump doesn't seem to represent a definable ideology with rational goals based on actual facts and figures. Instead he seems to represent people who despise the very idea of a functioning federal government. ....

While I agree with the gist of much of your post, I started this thread to discuss the April monthly report. Let's leave discussion of the upcoming FY2018 budget battles, the Trump administration's budget proposals, and actions to threads on the FY2017 budget. Well, to the extent we can keep the political discussions calm and stay focused on the budget and funding aspects for passenger rail and transit.

So how about the April 2017 MPR, eh? Adding the March and April total ridership numbers for 2016 and 2017 to cover both Easter travel periods shows a solid increase. Total system ridership is up for the Year-To-Date. Will Amtrak be able to sustain that through the summer with the service reductions due the NYP track repair work?

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Trump doesn't seem to represent a definable ideology with rational goals based on actual facts and figures. Instead he seems to represent people who despise the very idea of a functioning federal government. ....

While I agree with the gist of much of your post, I started this thread to discuss the April monthly report. Let's leave discussion of the upcoming FY2018 budget battles, the Trump administration's budget proposals, and actions to threads on the FY2017 budget. Well, to the extent we can keep the political discussions calm and stay focused on the budget and funding aspects for passenger rail and transit.
So how about the April 2017 MPR, eh? Adding the March and April total ridership numbers for 2016 and 2017 to cover both Easter travel periods shows a solid increase. Total system ridership is up for the Year-To-Date. Will Amtrak be able to sustain that through the summer with the service reductions due the NYP track repair work?

To be perfectly honest Amtrak is doing better overall than I anticipated. Both with regard to ridership and revenue. The NYP track work is likely to have a substantial negative impact but it also comes with a built-in explanation and counterargument should someone criticize the results too quickly or casually. I dislike the Machiavellian approach to basic track maintenance and I don't exactly trust Charles Moorman, but I can see why they do it this way. The system far too broken and convoluted to function rationally so instead we play games with our infrastructure (and our lives). There's also the possibility of people riding Amtrak who have put it off in the past but are concerned that their desired route or schedule may no longer be in regular service if they wait too much longer. I happen to think those fears are realistic but even if they're premature the result could be a short term gain that helps pad the numbers a bit. The early reports of moderately improved dining have given me more of a reason to ride again but the SL's poor calling times, the TE's track work, and the EB's lack of same day connections continue to complicate my options.

 

[lo2e]

A lot of the summary metric charts are looking REALLY good right now - the only numbers that are unfavorable to budget are OTP and cost per gallon of diesel (and cost per gallon is only negligibly higher than budget).

YTD a lot of lines have shown great growth in ridership, with AutoTrain kinda sticking out like a sore thumb going the other way. And AT has lost ground in both sleeper passengers AND coach/business passengers, as well as the number of vehicles carried. April itself, because of Easter, helped considerably, but it will still need much more help.

Anyone know what's happening with the diesel switchers in Wilmington? The "equipment returns" sound a bit ominous:

"Delays in paint process as well as equipment returns have resulted in serious delays the the switcher overhaul program. It is anticipated that unit 720 will release towards the last part of May and unit 794 will release in July. Another unit will be brought in when each leaves, however, I only expect 1 more unit (3 total for FY17) being released."

OTP, while still pretty terrible, was slightly better than March on most hosts.

 

[west point]

The March MPR seemed to indicate switcher prime movers were not being repaired properly and returned in a timely manner. Amtrak negotiated cancellation and sent the Prime movers ( Actual diesel ) to another vendor that promised an overhauled in 6 - 8 weeks.

 

[neroden]

OTP is always the issue and the only solution is government owned tracks, whether local or state ownership. MA has made the most progress, followed by CA and MI and NC...

 

[Devil's Advocate]

OTP is always the issue and the only solution is government owned tracks, whether local or state ownership. MA has made the most progress, followed by CA and MI and NC...

I wonder if government managed dispatching and government scheduled track maintenance might work almost as well.

 

[Lonestar648]

I don't see nationalizing the rail systems. First Congress would stop funding yearly infrastructure improvements to move instead their pet home to be funded. Dispatching would open up to Congress using their political clout for the business in their states. For Amtrak to continue in improvement in the MPR, I am not convinced more regulation and more Congressional involvement will benefit Amtrak's MPR numbers.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

I don't see nationalizing the rail systems. First Congress would stop funding yearly infrastructure improvements to move instead their pet home to be funded. Dispatching would open up to Congress using their political clout for the business in their states. For Amtrak to continue in improvement in the MPR, I am not convinced more regulation and more Congressional involvement will benefit Amtrak's MPR numbers.

Looks like we're about to watch the reverse happen in the airline industry as Trump starts handing agencies like the FAA over to loyal friends and future oligarchs.

 

[jis]

I don't see nationalizing the rail systems. First Congress would stop funding yearly infrastructure improvements to move instead their pet home to be funded. Dispatching would open up to Congress using their political clout for the business in their states. For Amtrak to continue in improvement in the MPR, I am not convinced more regulation and more Congressional involvement will benefit Amtrak's MPR numbers.

Looks like we're about to watch the reverse happen in the airline industry as Trump starts handing agencies like the FAA over to loyal friends and future oligarchs.

Actually, what is being proposed looks surprisingly like Amtrak, and a bit beyond that in that it is to be a not for profit corporation. And not even he has not proposed handing FAA over to anyone (well of course not taking into consideration that the SecDOT may be one of his cronies though the current one is not as much his cronies as that of someone else in another branch of the government). It is only the Air Traffic Control System that is in play.

 

[A Voice]

OTP is always the issue and the only solution is government owned tracks, whether local or state ownership. MA has made the most progress, followed by CA and MI and NC...

Changing who owns and controls the right-of-way doesn't do a thing to increase capacity or remedy known bottlenecks and choke points, which are the primary source of delays. While greater public funds would ideally be spent on private owned tracks, to provide improvements needed primarily for passenger train benefit, with a vested interest in the infrastructure the freight railroads generally do a much better job at operating the tracks than would a public entity.

 

[jis]

Interestingly, as the California example has illustrated, making some changes to the way compensation for service is structured, even what was otherwise one of the most cantankerous freight operators can be brought to the table in a cooperative frame of mind As long as the attitude is that everyone that is a service provider is your adversary not to be negotiated with under any circumstances, the results will be predictable and undesirable in general.

Yeah it could be ideal for infrastructure to be nationalized. The road infrastructure is and the air infrastructure to a large extent is. Repeated attempts to privatize roads have failed. What is being proposed for the ATC is something like Amtrak, and that does not necessarily bode well for it. While in most of the rest of the world rail infrastructure is nationalized, that does not make it any more feasible across the board in the US with its own historical context.

There will be many opportunities in special cases and we should try to be ready to take advantage of such. An example is in Florida, where we are at present singularly unprepared to take advantage of CSX's desire to shed some property.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

I don't see nationalizing the rail systems. First Congress would stop funding yearly infrastructure improvements to move instead their pet home to be funded. Dispatching would open up to Congress using their political clout for the business in their states. For Amtrak to continue in improvement in the MPR, I am not convinced more regulation and more Congressional involvement will benefit Amtrak's MPR numbers.

Looks like we're about to watch the reverse happen in the airline industry as Trump starts handing agencies like the FAA over to loyal friends and future oligarchs.

Actually, what is being proposed looks surprisingly like Amtrak, and a bit beyond that in that it is to be a not for profit corporation. And not even he has not proposed handing FAA over to anyone (well of course not taking into consideration that the SecDOT may be one of his cronies though the current one is not as much his cronies as that of someone else in another branch of the government). It is only the Air Traffic Control System that is in play.

If Amtrak was genuinely created as some sort of interim soft landing toward the end of passenger rail then I'm not quite sure how this improves things for ATC? As for the FAA itself I doubt he proposes handing it over so much as removing most of the teeth and gutting what's left. Kind of like how he handled the EPA.

 

[jis]

Could you provide some citation on exactly which teeth you see being removed from the FAA? Just for my (and others) education.Thanks.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Could you provide some citation on exactly which teeth you see being removed from the FAA? Just for my (and others) education.Thanks.

Trump himself doesn't need to identify any specific teeth. He can simply appoint an anti-regulation administrator to run the agency into the ground. His lackey can then redirect critical funds, stymie important regulatory tasks and processes, and tie the hands of anyone else. The FAA already struggles with sloppy certification and lax enforcement as it is. These conflicts were exposed during the lithium battery fiasco. The battery wasn't tested properly, in fact it wasn't tested at all by the FAA from what I understand, and even when the seriousness of the issue was exposed for everyone to see the FAA had to be cajoled into serious action by foreign agencies who had already grounded much of the fleet. It should have been a major embarrassment to everyone involved, but more than that it showed just how quick and easy it is for an American regulatory agency to be undermined and sidelined. I know you're far better at splitting hairs and arguing semantics than I am, but are you really this shocked that our system of government isn't designed to successfully fend off an administration that is bound and determined to do as much regulatory damage as possible?

 

[jis]

So this has precious little to do with Trump. There are pre-existing issues with how FAA is in bed with the airlines. OK.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

So this has precious little to do with Trump. There are pre-existing issues with how FAA is in bed with the airlines. OK.

The point is that it doesn't take much to tip the scales. A thumb on one end can drastically impact the other. Each time you asked a question I gave you an honest answer. For someone who apparently thinks very highly of his knowledge and negotiating skills it's odd that you're so careful to only engage in one direction. I guess it's just easier to hug the trunk while criticizing anyone willing to step out onto a limb. As much as I'd be curious to hear what you think about the future our ATC or the FAA I'd actually be more interested in what you were thinking during the collapse of the Soviet Union and what it may or may not portend about the future collapse of our own empire. Perhaps if you're willing to step out on a limb sometime we could take it to another thread?

 

[jis]

I don't recall having asked you any question recently other than asking for a supporting reference relative to this specific claim:

As for the FAA itself I doubt he proposes handing it over so much as removing most of the teeth and gutting what's left.

You don't have one, that is fine. No need to get defensive or mad about it. I have some similar fears, but nothing that I can support yet with any facts.

The only question that I found in your previous post, presumably asked of me was whether I am shocked.

I don't know what is there to be shocked about. That is the way things have been for many decades. I am looking for concrete information on if things are actually getting worse. So no I am not shocked. I don't have any reason to be either shocked or delighted at the present time.

I am genuinely looking for verifiable information. There is too much fake news going around these days from all sides.

FAA plays, and always has played, a difficult balancing act between realizable safety goals and perfection as defined by NTSB. Indeed many even criticize the NTSB for not being as strict as it should be in its recommendations, but that is a different matter. I believe that the regulatory arm of FAA does a reasonable job (indeed acknowledged to be one of the best in the world), and I know some here probably disagree. There is a similar issue with the FRA relative to railroads, which is of greater relevance here, and some think it regulates too harshly. However, both of them do face potential danger of being diluted or tilted more towards favoring commerce at the cost of safety. I do share your fears and trepidation. but we do not have any concrete information about where things are going as far as that goes.

So we'll see as things unfold.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Fair enough. I was overly abrasive about it myself. All I had on the ATC issue was what Fox News "reports" here at work. Which is basically little more than trying to pass muffled facts through a concrete wall. If I see or hear something concrete about EPA levels of dysfunction heading to the FRA or STB I'll pass it along. Unfortunately those agencies rarely receive much if any actual press where I live or visit online, which leaves folks like me in the dark as to when or if important changes are coming down the pipe. I was recently reminded that even my own city council member's goals and dispositions are basically ignored to make room for more human interest stories about the mayor's family life. I happen to like the new mayer and dislike my council member, but I still want to know what their goals are and how they intend to achieve them. In the era of alternative facts it's easy to allow assumptions to reign supreme.

 

[Bob Dylan]

Just think, if we do away with ALL Federal Rules and Regulations and let the Free Market operate unchecked "We'll Make America Great Again!"

What could possibly go wrong???