Brightline Trains Florida discussion 2025

[bonzoesc]

I think they do have an "advantage" in that traffic here is very bad, and the RTO push (Miami-Dade County is starting to require it soon) is making it worse.

 

[Anderson]

Thanks for the excellent and detailed analysis.



I think it's always difficult to constrict ridership and then want to rebuild it. Customers tend to be loyal and will often build their lifestyle around being able to use the train, and in doing so bank on the railroad upholding their side of the bargain by maintaining the service. Brightline have struggled over this twice. the first time was with their total and prolonged shutdown over Covid (at a time that Amtrak delivered a reduced but still essential service) and this in Florida, a state that was supposedly more lenient than many other states on restrictions from a legal perspective. And then a second time by constricting out short haul riders in favor of long haul ones. So basically now they are trying to re-start a third time. Passenger confidence or loyalty is not a commodity that can be taken for granted.

I think they got a mulligan on the first one, if only because the initial shutdown happened alongside everything else shutting down (even Disney!). However, I agree that the second squeeze will be harder to recover from - per their reports at the time, Brightline basically had a *commuter train* covering its operating costs, but they were also shaking out extra capacity at the time (e.g. there was an extra rush hour round-trip) that can't be done with all of the sets now spoken for.

I'm editing to extend and revise on the above:
(1) We've seen the sometimes-catastrophic impact of reliability disruptions in some of the Western LD trains. It can take years to bring those riders back, if they ever return, and that's in a situation where the disruptions were due to "external" actors (though I can't rule out equipment slashing also being at issue, or some other odd-and-end factors such as service expansions on corridors cannibalizing ridership in the case of the Coast Starlight).
(2) My suspicion is that if space returns, it'll be a 2-3 year rebuilding time. However, part of this is because some of the decisions that were taken to optimize ridership on the southern segment aren't doable for the time being (e.g. the extra rush-hour frequency was sort-of shuffled back in in the morning, but it doesn't exist in the evening - if you get off of work at 5 PM, the first train out of Miami you can catch is at 5:45 PM).

[I'll add that I wonder what Brightline's potential for getting past seven cars is - Siemens looks like they have a pretty full order book for the next few years, and as I think I've discussed elsewhere, that'll also come into play with the putative Tampa extension.]

 

[Touchdowntom9]

The return of the commuter pass should be very helpful in generating greater ridership on the short distance segment, and I would expect them to be able to return to 175K+ short distance monthly riders once they reach their targeted 7 car length, as that would mean that even with reserved seats for LD, they are providing the same capacity as they had pre-Orlando extension for short distance.

I also agree that their monthly report was unclear as to the status of their newest coaches arrivals--does anyone know if they have already received the other 10 cars and are just testing them (which would mean 6 car trains should be imminent) or if they have not received them yet at all? I also recall hearing that they may have gone from 10 trains with 4 coaches each to 9 trains with 5 coaches but it wasn't clear if that was just a temporary measure or not (Wikipedia has them listed for 40 coaches with 30 on order, though that figure could easily be out of date).

Perhaps they are being conservative by saying they want to run 7 car trains long term, but these trains should get to 10 coaches in length during rush hour at some point. If not that, then they should be looking to add additional trainsets for greater frequency.

Lastly here is a visual output of their Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) performance--they are growing slow but steadily since their covid shut down. Hopefully this will continue long into the future as service frequency and capacity per train grow.

 

[cirdan]

If my tally is correct they now have 10 sets of two locomotives and five coaches, plus one spare locomotive, with a further 20 coaches on order presumably to be delivered in two batches of 10.

 

[Touchdowntom9]

If my tally is correct they now have 10 sets of two locomotives and five coaches, plus one spare locomotive, with a further 20 coaches on order presumably to be delivered in two batches of 10.

So the expectation is that they will get those 20 additional coaches delivered during the next 3 months (Q2)? Seems to be a quickly approaching deadline but hopefully they can hit it.

 

[Anderson]

So the expectation is that they will get those 20 additional coaches delivered during the next 3 months (Q2)? Seems to be a quickly approaching deadline but hopefully they can hit it.

The January report said the following:

To address this capacity limitation, we have on order 10 more additional Smart class passenger cars and another 10 Premium class cars to be delivered in batches that will allow us to operate seven-car long trains in mid-2025, with a maximum capacity of 450 seats. In December 2024, our second group of new passenger cars shipped from the Siemens facility in Sacramento, California. The cars, configured as Smart class passenger cars, were placed into service as of early January.

Now, I've looked at video from trains this month just now (yay railfans) and they're still five cars long (at least, the five sets I saw were) and at the same time I know the trains got lengthened back in November (witness the spike in ridership). So something is inaccurate here - either they're referencing equipment received earlier in 2024 and making it sound like they're the second batch of cars (those were received earlier in the year) or they've received the next 10 (but they aren't in service yet).

Notably, them not being in service makes Brightline's outlook appear just a bit better (since they're not doing January's numbers with some element of six car trains being in play).

 

[ManganeseFrog]

The first 5 cars were delivered in late September and began entering service in October, right before Milton. Afterwards, Brightline temporarily cannibalized cars off of 2 sets to create 9 5-car sets, with 1 set having 2 premium cars, and operated with 2 fewer round trips. The second 5 cars were delivered in December and began entering service in late December and they returned to the regular schedule, I believe, on January 6th. As far as I know, the third round of 5 cars has not been delivered yet.

 

[cirdan]

The first 5 cars were delivered in late September and began entering service in October, right before Milton. Afterwards, Brightline temporarily cannibalized cars off of 2 sets to create 9 5-car sets, with 1 set having 2 premium cars, and operated with 2 fewer round trips. The second 5 cars were delivered in December and began entering service in late December and they returned to the regular schedule, I believe, on January 6th. As far as I know, the third round of 5 cars has not been delivered yet.

Something doesn't add up here.

I assume one set must have been cannibalized, not two. This would have provided 4 cars (one of which Premium) with which to extend the remaining four 4 cars sets to 5 cars each.

 

[ManganeseFrog]

Something doesn't add up here.

I assume one set must have been cannibalized, not two. This would have provided 4 cars (one of which Premium) with which to extend the remaining four 4 cars sets to 5 cars each.

I should have clarified, they took one red car and two orange cars out of their respective sets and combined the remaining cars into the 9th set. Seems odd but it must have been more convenient.

 

[Anderson]

Thanks. That explains the "Frankenstein sets" (colors not matching).

 

[Anderson]

The return of the commuter pass should be very helpful in generating greater ridership on the short distance segment, and I would expect them to be able to return to 175K+ short distance monthly riders once they reach their targeted 7 car length, as that would mean that even with reserved seats for LD, they are providing the same capacity as they had pre-Orlando extension for short distance.

I also agree that their monthly report was unclear as to the status of their newest coaches arrivals--does anyone know if they have already received the other 10 cars and are just testing them (which would mean 6 car trains should be imminent) or if they have not received them yet at all? I also recall hearing that they may have gone from 10 trains with 4 coaches each to 9 trains with 5 coaches but it wasn't clear if that was just a temporary measure or not (Wikipedia has them listed for 40 coaches with 30 on order, though that figure could easily be out of date).

Perhaps they are being conservative by saying they want to run 7 car trains long term, but these trains should get to 10 coaches in length during rush hour at some point. If not that, then they should be looking to add additional trainsets for greater frequency.

Lastly here is a visual output of their Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) performance--they are growing slow but steadily since their covid shut down. Hopefully this will continue long into the future as service frequency and capacity per train grow.

View attachment 39213

So, I've been thinking this over and I have a few thoughts:

(1) It looks like the Northeast Corridor is close to a decade off (current opening is targeted for 2032) and the Broward portions seem to be even further behind (and Broward has been split in two, with the first segment - the south one - not reaching Fort Lauderdale's downtown station). So the odds of having direct commuter competition (or feeder service) seem to be a ways off.

(2) Brightline wants to run identical sets of equipment. The question of how this should look is somewhat a matter of opinion - you can make a case that instead of going from seven cars to ten cars (needing 30 new cars), Brightline should instead order four new sets of equipment (needing 28 cars and eight locomotives), especially since the Disney/I-Drive and Tampa extensions are already going to end up requiring ordering another few sets (probably about five, give or take, depending on whether Brightline opts to do anything "shuttle"-like from MCO to the Disney area). What Brightline will actually do down the line, who knows?

(3) Related to (2), and I've hit this drum a few times over the years, Brightline's official ridership projections are physically impossible with seven-car sets on the current schedule. They're not even doable with ten-car sets. The math just isn't there, especially when you consider that (for example) your far-off-peak trains are probably never going to run full with the same equipment as your peak-hour trains, so load factors over 80% on any segment seem...unlikely...to me. So I presume that if ridership ever ends up in the same universe as the modeled projections, there will need to be substantially expanded service.

(4) Back to point (1): That process is getting so drawn out that I can see a scenario where Brightline ends up giving up and doing something else on their own (with the support of one or more counties). It could be an interim project (e.g. Brightline buying the sets they expect to deploy onwards elsewhere and running extra frequencies in South Florida with them) or something more permanent. One thing I will say is that I do not see Brightline running a "commuter-priced" operation in South Florida without the government(s) kicking in quite a bit. I also don't see Brightline adding stops as long as service is more-or-less hourly.

With the above noted, within South Florida I think there are basically two paths forward for commuter-ish services:
(A) Brightline engages in modest frequency expansions over the next decade or two and the commuter stuff happens roughly as planned.
(B) Brightline and the counties get tired of a stalled-out process and work out a deal where the counties pay for an additional few stations (not the whole number suggested, but say an additional 3-5 stations within SF) whose opening would coincide with Brightline ramping up frequencies substantially.

A scenario where they kick in (say) $200-250m for the stations and some added capacity at a point where Brightline is going to 2x/hourly service during peak-ish hours (probably the limit of service at present) and so can keep hourly service on an express-leaning schedule is plausible. This isn't part of Brightline's current business plan, I acknowledge, but there's a lot about their existing plan that (literally) does not add up.

 

[blueman271]

So, I've been thinking this over and I have a few thoughts:

(1) It looks like the Northeast Corridor is close to a decade off (current opening is targeted for 2032) and the Broward portions seem to be even further behind (and Broward has been split in two, with the first segment - the south one - not reaching Fort Lauderdale's downtown station). So the odds of having direct commuter competition (or feeder service) seem to be a ways off.

(2) Brightline wants to run identical sets of equipment. The question of how this should look is somewhat a matter of opinion - you can make a case that instead of going from seven cars to ten cars (needing 30 new cars), Brightline should instead order four new sets of equipment (needing 28 cars and eight locomotives), especially since the Disney/I-Drive and Tampa extensions are already going to end up requiring ordering another few sets (probably about five, give or take, depending on whether Brightline opts to do anything "shuttle"-like from MCO to the Disney area). What Brightline will actually do down the line, who knows?

(3) Related to (2), and I've hit this drum a few times over the years, Brightline's official ridership projections are physically impossible with seven-car sets on the current schedule. They're not even doable with ten-car sets. The math just isn't there, especially when you consider that (for example) your far-off-peak trains are probably never going to run full with the same equipment as your peak-hour trains, so load factors over 80% on any segment seem...unlikely...to me. So I presume that if ridership ever ends up in the same universe as the modeled projections, there will need to be substantially expanded service.

(4) Back to point (1): That process is getting so drawn out that I can see a scenario where Brightline ends up giving up and doing something else on their own (with the support of one or more counties). It could be an interim project (e.g. Brightline buying the sets they expect to deploy onwards elsewhere and running extra frequencies in South Florida with them) or something more permanent. One thing I will say is that I do not see Brightline running a "commuter-priced" operation in South Florida without the government(s) kicking in quite a bit. I also don't see Brightline adding stops as long as service is more-or-less hourly.

With the above noted, within South Florida I think there are basically two paths forward for commuter-ish services:
(A) Brightline engages in modest frequency expansions over the next decade or two and the commuter stuff happens roughly as planned.
(B) Brightline and the counties get tired of a stalled-out process and work out a deal where the counties pay for an additional few stations (not the whole number suggested, but say an additional 3-5 stations within SF) whose opening would coincide with Brightline ramping up frequencies substantially.

A scenario where they kick in (say) $200-250m for the stations and some added capacity at a point where Brightline is going to 2x/hourly service during peak-ish hours (probably the limit of service at present) and so can keep hourly service on an express-leaning schedule is plausible. This isn't part of Brightline's current business plan, I acknowledge, but there's a lot about their existing plan that (literally) does not add up.

The below article, which may be behind a paywall, says Brightline expects to have a deal with Dade County in quarter 2 of this year and with Broward County shortly after that.

Of course, if Tri-Rail coming to MiamiCentral is used as example, the actual train service will take years to materialize after the contracts are signed and won’t come anywhere near what was actually promised.
https://www.bizjournals.com/southfl...htline-miami-train-deal-broward-commuter.html