Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[Touchdowntom9]

Wonder how they expect to be able to really hit their target numbers or approach break even on their rail operations with the current number of coaches per train. Think it would be much easier if they had 8 or 10 cars vs the current 4. But last I heard they don’t have any outstanding orders remaining with Siemens

 

[Anderson]

Wonder how they expect to be able to really hit their target numbers or approach break even on their rail operations with the current number of coaches per train. Think it would be much easier if they had 8 or 10 cars vs the current 4. But last I heard they don’t have any outstanding orders remaining with Siemens

I've raised this as well. Basically, they physically cannot meet their stated ridership projections with four-car trains. On the current equipment and frequency count, they would have a load factor of over 160% on the busiest segment (and would be over 100% on all segments).

 

[west point]

Brightline could take 2 four car train sets and couple them together. If short term just couple 2 engines together. If longer term just remove 2 locos and couple coaches together making an 8-car train.

 

[cirdan]

Brightline could take 2 four car train sets and couple them together. If short term just couple 2 engines together. If longer term just remove 2 locos and couple coaches together making an 8-car train.

I'm not sure whether they have sufficient spare trains to be able to couple them as pairs, except maybe in exceptional circumstances.
The plan from the beginning was to add further intermediate cars as justified.

 

[jis]

I'm not sure whether they have sufficient spare trains to be able to couple them as pairs, except maybe in exceptional circumstances.
The plan from the beginning was to add further intermediate cars as justified.

Correct. They have almost exactly the number of trains to run their planned hourly service. So no doubling up without reducing frequency. And yes, they do have a pile of options to grow their trains to 7 or 8 cars, I forget which. I don;t think they plan to go to ten cars any more as they had said very early on in their planning.

 

[cirdan]

Correct. They have almost exactly the number of trains to run their planned hourly service. So no doubling up without reducing frequency. And yes, they do have a pile of options to grow their trains to 7 or 8 cars, I forget which. I don;t think they plan to go to ten cars any more as they had said very early on in their planning.

I should very much hope they have generous options, as obviously they are locked in with one supplier and platform. If Siemens should ever decide to not manufacture that type of car any more, or decide to charge an extortionate price, they would have a serious problem.

As indeed happened to Amtrak some years ago when they considered adding extra cars to the Acelas.

 

[joelkfla]

I should very much hope they have generous options, as obviously they are locked in with one supplier and platform. If Siemens should ever decide to not manufacture that type of car any more, or decide to charge an extortionate price, they would have a serious problem.

As indeed happened to Amtrak some years ago when they considered adding extra cars to the Acelas.

If that were to happen, they could procure full trainsets without locomotives from another supplier, and group the existing cars into longer trains. The new cars would just need to be compatible with their existing engines, which I don't think would be a problem.

 

[jis]

I don't think Brightline management is as clueless as some of us apparently think they are

 

[Tlcooper44]

I don't think Brightline management is as clueless as some of us apparently think they are

Agreed, but do that have any (public) plans to procure more equipment to meet obvious demand? Running 4 car trains really seems short sighted, at this point. Ridership is strong, even without Orlando.

 

[joelkfla]

Agreed, but do that have any (public) plans to procure more equipment to meet obvious demand? Running 4 car trains really seems short sighted, at this point. Ridership is strong, even without Orlando.

Way back, they did say that they had purchase options on additional cars, but things may have changed.

 

[bonzoesc]

Way back, they did say that they had purchase options on additional cars, but things may have changed.

I don't know why they wouldn't keep those options. A pre-negotiated option is valuable for both Brightline and Siemens; it's absolutely something plugged in to their respective accounting systems to figure out when they make sense to exercise.

 

[Ziv]

Because of $$ generated...

They gain ad revenue and lose some repeat business. I guess the extra revenue is worth it to them.
It would irritate me. I have ridden buses with wraps and it is like a really dirty window.

 

[cirdan]

I don't know why they wouldn't keep those options. A pre-negotiated option is valuable for both Brightline and Siemens; it's absolutely something plugged in to their respective accounting systems to figure out when they make sense to exercise.

Options are typically time-limited and will expire at some point.
Manufacturers don't like to extend options too far as obviously they don't want to be tied down manufacturing yesteryear's technology. This would not just affect Siemens but go all the way up the supply chain. Promising that something will still be on the market in say, 5 years time, is not as easy as it sounds.
Obviously the Covid years were more or less lost years and the growth we are seeing on Brightline now should have happened back then, so everything is running two to three years behind plan right now, but the options for new equipment are probably non-negotiable. It would thus be interesting to know precisely what those options say and when they expire.

 

[BlazeRip]

I wonder about the shape of Brightline locomotives after their wrecks. I wonder if hitting a car or SUV causes major damage or just cosmetic. You rarely see images of that. I guess all the interest is with the injured as it should be.

 

[jis]

I wonder about the shape of Brightline locomotives after their wrecks. I wonder if hitting a car or SUV causes major damage or just cosmetic. You rarely see images of that. I guess all the interest is with the injured as it should be.

The damage from hitting a car or SUV is usually minimal, fixed within a week. Usually the damage is confined to the snout which is a bolt on component and they have a whole collection of them back at the ranch. The fix usually consists of removing the damaged one and installing a new one.

When a big rig is hit the damage is more sever and may take quite a while to fix. This is the reason that they have acquire additional locomotives which they keep around as standby.

 

[jis]

Agreed, but do that have any (public) plans to procure more equipment to meet obvious demand? Running 4 car trains really seems short sighted, at this point. Ridership is strong, even without Orlando.

I don't think anyone has ever extracted a public plan of anything from them that was not a marketing related message. All other information comes from regulatory filings and such, and I suspect options may not be as relevant in those unless there is a time bound commitment with financial impact of some sort. Options of this sort, negotiated carefully, do not create a financial commitment until exercised. And truth be told it is plausible that no one has dug as deep as @Anderson has to point out that in order to meet the revenue projections the cost projections will need a revision.

 

[Qapla]

Brightline Construction: St. Lucie River Drawbridge - February 2023

 

[Anderson]

I don't think anyone has ever extracted a public plan of anything from them that was not a marketing related message. All other information comes from regulatory filings and such, and I suspect options may not be as relevant in those unless there is a time bound commitment with financial impact of some sort. Options of this sort, negotiated carefully, do not create a financial commitment until exercised. And truth be told it is plausible that no one has dug as deep as @Anderson has to point out that in order to meet the revenue projections the cost projections will need a revision.

And I would hope, for their sake, that the bond investors have dug similarly deep...

 

[jis]

And I would hope, for their sake, that the bond investors have dug similarly deep...

One thing that we don;t know is when they plan to get their next tranche of cars. Since they are a privately held company and they are not looking for further financing from the market, they don;t really have to tell anyone except Siemens of course and most likely covered by trade secret.

 

[Anderson]

One thing that we don;t know is when they plan to get their next tranche of cars. Since they are a privately held company and they are not looking for further financing from the market, they don;t really have to tell anyone except Siemens of course and most likely covered by trade secret.

One thing that is likely to work in their favor is that Siemens has a steady flow of orders, so presuming that they can slip a tranche of 10-20 cars in alongside the Amtrak/VIA sets, they might be able to manage a relatively quick turnaround.

The question of what the Siemens-Brightline contract looks like is, of course, not clear. Still, at this point Brightline's equipment situation is such that absent exercising an order in the near future I have to wonder if the "continuing disclosures" will have to include some discussion on the conditions for ordering additional equipment, given the raw math in those projections. Of course, if there's also the fact that they'll have to make at least some disclosures on this front if they go in for another bond issue - we probably would have seen something in the 2021 bond issue disclosure if they hadn't still been in Pandemic Shutdown Mode.

 

[Qapla]

Brightline Construction: Jupiter Cutover and Loxahatchee River Drawbridge - Jan/Feb 2023

 

[Qapla]

Brightline Construction: Stuart Progress - Jan/Feb 2023

 

[desertflyer]

First day of 125mph testing today.

 

[Qapla]

 

[user 1215]

First day of 125mph testing today.

Are they really going to try to go 125 on the first day of running on the 528 corridor?