Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[jis]

After Thursday's small flood the possibility of the tunnel needs more thought. Just remember what Sandy did to the north river tunnel tubes.

The station at ground level needs some further thought too

 

[bonzoesc]

After Thursday's small flood the possibility of the tunnel needs more thought. Just remember what Sandy did to the north river tunnel tubes.

I think after the flooding combined with the prices in that FDOT "New River Crossing Feasibility Technical Memorandum" above, the tunnel doesn't need more thought.

 

[McIntyre2K7]

It looks like Brightline opened the Orlando Station for the media today. Brightline also announced that Orlando ticket sales will launch in May for future dates, with one-way fares starting at $79 for SMART and $149 for PREMIUM. SMART fare bundles for families of four will be available for less than $199 one way

 

[George Harris]

I think after the flooding combined with the prices in that FDOT "New River Crossing Feasibility Technical Memorandum" above, the tunnel doesn't need more thought.

The thing to keep in mind when reading these reports is that they must include all the possibilities from existing conditions to the gold plated irrational. This is necessitated by the tendency of those that want to appear smart, which includes most politicians and everyone against the project to raise possibilities that vary between ridiculous and completely insane.

When looking at the profiles and costs on these various profiles, it appears that they are calling the existing profile as being the same as MHW = mean high water. This is unlikely. Existing profile is probably about MHW + 10 or so. A look at both the construction and operating costs of the tunnel alternative says that it is remaining in the report solely for the purpose of heading off the "why did you not consider a tunnel?" crowd making noise. To me the most logical is the high level bridge that does not require a draw span. It is little more costly than the mid level bridge that still requires a draw span but is considerably cheaper to operate and maintain. I don't see the low level bridge as being much more than double tracking of the status quo. The effect of the high bridge on freight trains should be minimal in that the approaches could be considered momentum grades, since freight trains could approach at relatively high speeds and the total climb is short, meaning that speed lost due to the upgrade would essentially be returned by gravity on the downgrade. The high level bridge should also eliminate several grade crossings.

 

[jis]

The current status quo is a double track bridge at MHW + 10 or so.

I think almost all rational people think that the high level fixed structure is the way to go, except for the Fort Lauderdale political bosses, who like the Tunnel, but assume that they won't have to bear any of the cost. Given Florida's propensity to be "frugal" I don;t think anyone in Tallahassee thinks of the tunnel as viable, and might spring for the High Level Fixed structure. Without them springing for it, nothing will happen.

 

[Anderson]

2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                    
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20

Analysis:
Ridership has continued edging upwards, in line with last month. Daily ridership was 5,793/day for March (31 days), versus February's 5,416/day (28 days) and January's 5,037/day (31 days). YOY this is an increase of 67.7% overall.

Ridership at the new stations was 48,459; this gives ridership of 131,117 at the "old" stations (an increase of 22.5% vs March 2022), with the rest of the increase being attributable directly to the new stations.

PPR was up about 7% month-over-month, and appears to be up about 25% vs the "stable period" last year (March 2022 was the strongest month for PPR in 2022).

The addition of a fifth car at some point probably helped (that added capacity will likely help lift a lid on the capacity squeeze that was self-evidently beginning to develop). On the basis of about 18 trains/day (which is generally about right), ridership-per-train appears to be averaging 161/train (vs 150/train in Feb and 140/train in Jan). Even allowing for some turnover, this was going to start closing in on practical capacity limits (on the basis of no turnover, this would be just under 2/3 capacity; there would still be some room for growth, but this implies peak-hour trains being absolutely slammed).

YTD ticket revenue is up to $11.9m (and overall revenue up to $16.0m) and ridership is just under half a million riders so far. More to the point, the March pace would put Brightline at about 2.1m riders and $50-55m for 2023 on the South Segment. The last bond projections gave 2.46m riders, $27.66/passenger revenue, and $68m on the south segment. Last month I noted that the trend was for about 1.9-2.0m riders and $45-50m in revenue. So, obviously this is an improvement and the trend is moving in the right direction.

Having said that, I suspect they'll still pull up a little short for the year on the South Segment in terms of ridership (revenue is a bit tricky to pin down as well) for two reasons: First, March has generally been a "pretty good" month (both March 2019 and March 2022 had the highest ridership for a few months - March 2019 wasn't surpassed until November [and December], likely due to Polar Express trains; and March 2022 wasn't surpassed until July and December, the latter due to both the Polar Express stuff and the addition of new stations). The added capacity plus stations getting "bedded in" will probably help offset this. The second reason is, somewhat ironically, the Orlando service - that seems likely to squeeze out some ridership on the south segment, depending on how much ridership you get there and what they do with the frequencies. The exception here is going to be if they start getting the trains up to six cars sooner rather than later - I know that order is apparently in, but I don't think we have a timeline on it, do we? If that happens, then Brightline can probably put in around 100-120 through pax per train without seriously impacting loads within the South Segment.

On the other hand, I suspect that PPR may actually come in a bit on the higher side for 2023 - but not for a (generally) good reason. The slug of about 10-15% of inflation over the last two years (the CPI is up over 300 vs roughly 260 at the start of 2021) means that the market can bear prices that are nominally higher. Of course, the fact that the base value of Brightline's bond issue is being offset by this is also helping (to borrow an old phrase, they borrowed hundred-cent dollars and are getting to pay it back with fifty-cent dollars).

 

[Anderson]

Just a note per the above - the revenue estimate is based on ticket revenue alone. With respect to total revenue, YTD that's at about $32.83/pax. Spread out over 2.1m riders, that would come in at about $65-70m for the year. For March's numbers, that's $36.20. Spread that out over the last nine months and add the first quarter to it and revenue for 2023 would be $70-75m for the South Segment.

As above, the question of how that will interact with the Orlando extension is...a very good question.

 

[cirdan]

The effect of the high bridge on freight trains should be minimal in that the approaches could be considered momentum grades, since freight trains could approach at relatively high speeds and the total climb is short, meaning that speed lost due to the upgrade would essentially be returned by gravity on the downgrade. The high level bridge should also eliminate several grade crossings.

Interesting thought.

What would happen though if a freight had to be held because the span was open?

I guess holding a train on the grade would be pretty detrimental so the signals would have to be set up so that the train could be held on the level some way from the start of the grade so there would be enough track for the train to build up sufficient speed to take the grade by storm. How much would that be? 6 miles maybe?

 

[jis]

Interesting thought.

What would happen though if a freight had to be held because the span was open?

I guess holding a train on the grade would be pretty detrimental so the signals would have to be set up so that the train could be held on the level some way from the start of the grade so there would be enough track for the train to build up sufficient speed to take the grade by storm. How much would that be? 6 miles maybe?

There is no span to open in the high bridge. It is a fixed structure.

Incidentally, the freight problem is easily addressed by keeping the ground level structure in place which will be held open for boats except on those rare occasions when a freight that cannot make it up top comes by. TriRail has such a setup on the same New River further upstream where TriRail uses a high fixed structure, which CSX freights use an adjacent ground level movable structure.

 

[ManganeseFrog]

there would still be some room for growth, but this implies peak-hour trains being absolutely slammed

5-car sets can sell out, although I don't know how often. I think it is more likely on event-branded trains such as for Miami Heat games.

The exception here is going to be if they start getting the trains up to six cars sooner rather than later - I know that order is apparently in, but I don't think we have a timeline on it, do we?

The best we have is "half to be delivered in 2024 and the remainder to be delivered in 2025." So 6-car sets may not happen until 2025 unless they sacrifice a set.


Excluding the new stations, I wonder how close this March, 131k, is to what March 2020 would have been. This January was about 1.5k below 2020 and this February about 4k higher.

 

[Anderson]

5-car sets can sell out, although I don't know how often. I think it is more likely on event-branded trains such as for Miami Heat games.


The best we have is "half to be delivered in 2024 and the remainder to be delivered in 2025." So 6-car sets may not happen until 2025 unless they sacrifice a set.


Excluding the new stations, I wonder how close this March, 131k, is to what March 2020 would have been. This January was about 1.5k below 2020 and this February about 4k higher.

What day did Brightline shut down in 2020? I can use that to start to guess.

Edit: So, Brightline shut down on March 25. There was (obviously) some impact in the week or two prior to the shutdown, but this gives us a floor to work with. Ridership as-is (as-was?) for March 2020 was 47,039. Using the rule of three (that is, 47,039/25=X/31) provides a ridership of 58,328. That's a lowball (again, there was ridership loss in the week or two before this), but I'd guess that they were on track for...80-120k feels about "right". It's a little tricky to zero in further - I'm not sure when ridership actually started "tanking" (things felt normal enough in Virginia for the first 10-14 days of the month - Nerf was only called off for Mar. 14 about a day beforehand). Flat-out doubling ridership might be about right (94k, give or take).

 

[cirdan]

The best we have is "half to be delivered in 2024 and the remainder to be delivered in 2025." So 6-car sets may not happen until 2025 unless they sacrifice a set.

Just because trains will be fully booked for special fixtures such as sporting and other events does not mean they will be fully booked at other times.

Does the investment in extra cars make sense if they will only be filled a few days per year? I think not. It is the base level ridership that needs to catch up, not the peaks.

What they can of course do to boost capacity at one-off major events is to schedule maintenance so that the spare vehicles are available for service on these days.

 

[user 1215]

I think the 5th car is essential for MCO traffic when the train would be pack with local traffic. Would hate to see sold out trains between FLL and MIA preventing people from Orlando from booking to MIA.

 

[bonzoesc]

I think the 5th car is essential for MCO traffic when the train would be pack with local traffic. Would hate to see sold out trains between FLL and MIA preventing people from Orlando from booking to MIA.

I’d be surprised if they don’t bucket them like airlines, where some MIA-FLL seats get held until closer to departure to allow for MIA-MCO sales.

 

[jis]

More tidbits about Brightline Florida...

https://www.railwaygazette.com/pass...nventory-and-reservation-system/63947.article

 

[Anderson]

I’d be surprised if they don’t bucket them like airlines, where some MIA-FLL seats get held until closer to departure to allow for MIA-MCO sales.

I went to do some load-checking last night and I can confirm that they're blocking something like 30-40% of capacity on the end-legs more-or-less right up to departure. Now, they might release them if those seats were getting filled up, but Brightline is already doing this.

Another thing that Brightline might do, at least during peak periods, would be to run a MIA-WPB train and a MIA-MCO train close to one another in the timetable and use pricing "signals" to push pax between the two trains. For example, Brightline currently runs four trains WPB-MIA between 0636 and 0736 and has half-hourly departures between MIA and WPB across the evening rush (most of which aren't "needed" for service back to MIA that evening).

With the extra trains, it seems at least possible that Brightline would look at doing some "fleeting". If they're not planning for full hourly service to MCO, then having extra trains MIA-FLL likely fits.

[I'm still going to contend that they're going to have to make something earlier than 0717 out of MIA work, btw...not getting anybody to MCO prior to 1030 just doesn't feel like a winning move.]

 

[jis]

Another thing that Brightline might do, at least during peak periods, would be to run a MIA-WPB train and a MIA-MCO train close to one another in the timetable and use pricing "signals" to push pax between the two trains.

But first they will require to acquire a few more train sets to do so reliably, or some would say, at all. They require 8 train sets to just run hourly service where each trip take 3.5 hours as is rumored to be the case.

 

[Anderson]

But first they will require to acquire a few more train sets to do so reliably, or some would say, at all. They require 8 train sets to just run hourly service where each trip take 3.5 hours as is rumored to be the case.

That implies full hourly service, and I'm not entirely sure that they're going to go for that right out of the gate.

If they are going for that, then either there needs to be a supplemental equipment order somewhere in the mix or Brightline doesn't believe the bit in their own filings about "Despite indicating a dropoff in ridership when it starts, we actually believe that the South Florida commuter service will be additive to ridership".

Edit: If anything, "full hourly" service to Orlando would arguably muck with the commuter traffic they've been catering to and building up.

 

[user 1215]

That implies full hourly service, and I'm not entirely sure that they're going to go for that right out of the gate.

If they are going for that, then either there needs to be a supplemental equipment order somewhere in the mix or Brightline doesn't believe the bit in their own filings about "Despite indicating a dropoff in ridership when it starts, we actually believe that the South Florida commuter service will be additive to ridership".

Edit: If anything, "full hourly" service to Orlando would arguably muck with the commuter traffic they've been catering to and building up.

What's the a) max train length, and b) lead time to order new coaches and locomotives?

 

[McIntyre2K7]

That implies full hourly service, and I'm not entirely sure that they're going to go for that right out of the gate.

If they are going for that, then either there needs to be a supplemental equipment order somewhere in the mix or Brightline doesn't believe the bit in their own filings about "Despite indicating a dropoff in ridership when it starts, we actually believe that the South Florida commuter service will be additive to ridership".

Edit: If anything, "full hourly" service to Orlando would arguably muck with the commuter traffic they've been catering to and building up.

From what I see on my timeline (per Greg Angel) it looks like that will be the case that it will be full hourly service.

Weekdays:
(Southbound): From Orlando starting at 5am (first train arrives at 8:30am). Last train south is 8:50pm
(Northbound): From Miami starting at 6:50am (first train arrives at 10:15am). Last train north is 9:45pm


Weekends:
Southbound: First train leaves Orlando at 5:45am, last train leaves at 8:50pm
Northbound: First train leaves Miami at 5:45 am, last train leaves at 9:45pm

 

[jis]

That implies full hourly service, and I'm not entirely sure that they're going to go for that right out of the gate.

If they are going for that, then either there needs to be a supplemental equipment order somewhere in the mix or Brightline doesn't believe the bit in their own filings about "Despite indicating a dropoff in ridership when it starts, we actually believe that the South Florida commuter service will be additive to ridership".

Edit: If anything, "full hourly" service to Orlando would arguably muck with the commuter traffic they've been catering to and building up.

All that I have to go by is the information quoted from Brightline in this Railway Age article.

https://www.railwayage.com/passenge...national-airport-station/?RAchannel=passenger

 

[joelkfla]

More tidbits about Brightline Florida...

https://www.railwaygazette.com/pass...nventory-and-reservation-system/63947.article

Fascinating corporate website. But is it pronounced skills or squills?

 

[user 1215]

From what I see on my timeline (per Greg Angel) it looks like that will be the case that it will be full hourly service.

Weekdays:
(Southbound): From Orlando starting at 5am (first train arrives at 8:30am). Last train south is 8:50pm
(Northbound): From Miami starting at 6:50am (first train arrives at 10:15am). Last train north is 9:45pm


Weekends:
Southbound: First train leaves Orlando at 5:45am, last train leaves at 8:50pm
Northbound: First train leaves Miami at 5:45 am, last train leaves at 9:45pm

Can't wait to plan my first MCO to MIA and back trip!

 

[jis]

What's the a) max train length, and b) lead time to order new coaches and locomotives?

a) Physically upto 10 cars possible, but they have said they will max at 7 for now.

b) Given Siemens' order backlog, one year may be an optimistic guess. BTW, they already have 20 cars and 2 more Chargers on order. The exact car mix is not known for sure, but from other statements it would appear that all are "Smart" cars. The plan is to grow each consist to 6 cars. The engines are for protect. Given the recent derailment after a grade crossing incident, that makes quite a bit of sense.

 

[joelkfla]

What's the a) max train length, and b) lead time to order new coaches and locomotives?

The platforms at the original 3 stations & MCO are 10 car lengths. I don't know about the infill stations.