The split makes sense insofar as, IIRC, the loan was splitting along those lines already and FEC was able to get a FONSI for the coastal sections. I do seriously have to wonder, though...if they're just going to Cocoa, why not run some of the trains up to Jacksonville for now (since they have that ROW squared away) and do Orlando if/when the permissions get straightened out?
You know? I have wondered about that too. Though that would involve building at least 4 or 5 more stations on the way I suspect. Like Cocoa, Daytona, St. Augustine and Jacksonville Convention Center minimally, assuming they want to stay off of CSX entirely, and maybe Melbourne. All that could of course send the folks at Beach line into a tizzy.
That is one possibility, though if they were only selling tickets from Orlando to select stations (MIA, FTL, WPB, and perhaps JAX, St. Augustine, and Daytona) the odds of the Beachline folks being able to do much seem slim since most of the traffic to/from Daytona and points north is going to go to via I-4, not the Beachline.
Stations shouldn't be an issue...in a pinch, FEC could put limited stations in place and expand them 5-10 years down the line (as capital permits and demand dictates), and I think they still own some modest-sized plots in several cities that could be expanded. You could probably get sufficient stations in all of the cities for a relatively low cost ($10-20m).
The most likely explanation is that there would be significant costs associated with needed capacity and/or track condition improvements. The lack of a pre-existing FONSI might also play a role here, though getting that for Cocoa-north shouldn't be
that hard. Also, they'd need more trainsets to run anything from end to end...though I suspect that if they ran 2-3 trains/day north of Cocoa to a couple of FECshaks they'd still get substantial ridership, particularly if they were willing to time an early train into Jacksonville to grab the commuter market.
The second most likely explanation is that service on the whole route would get Jacksonville/St. Augustine talking about commuter rail on
that end as well and FEC doesn't want to deal with that on top of their little back-and-forth with Tri-Rail. I do think FEC wants to ultimately handle the commuter stuff themselves, even if it means carrying less riders for higher prices than "traditional" commuter rail.
One other thought: 0700 is
late to be starting trains from one end to the other. There's a reason the Acela starts at 0600 from NYP and 0500 from WAS.
Brief addendum to the above: Even assuming OOCEA wanted to be a pain about it, a one-way toll is $4.25 on the Beeline from end-to-end (cash toll; E-Pass and SunPass are $3.49). Considering the low level of diversions you'd be getting from the Beeline for points up north and so forth (not to mention that one car can hold multiple people), FEC
might have to throw OOCEA a quarter for each ticket sold to make up for diversions if they get into a fight over this. Oh, the horror...
Cocoa is another story, but even there some sort of agreement to pay $1 or $2 per one-way ticket for the specific city pair of Orlando-Cocoa (the lower range makes more sense to me) should be doable.
