Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[user 1215]

So what's the plan for these guys? Are they going to offer "High Speed Service" from Miami ALL the WAY to West Palm Beach, then open non-stop service from WPB to Orlando sometime in the next two years?

They should at least get a stop in Cocoa and run to there until they get the ROW built between Cocoa Beach and Orlando.

But everything indicates Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm, and Orlando being the only stops. Ever.

Finally, I think it's dumb to terminate at an airport. Airports should be served by light rail. MCO has no decent infrastructure other than a single city bus and scores of expensive rental cars for transportation out of the airport. Why not fly into Orlando instead?

I'm all for private rail. I'm all about All Aboard Florida. I just doesn't make sense to me.

 

[chrsjrcj]

They announced that they are working with Brevard County to add a stop after the WPB to Orlando phase is complete. Most likely because Brevard County has been mostly supportive of the project since day one.

Meanwhile, they told Treasure Coast counties that they were willing to add a stop if they worked together, but unfortunately their residents don't care and are very misinformed regarding the project.

As far as speeds, it has always been 79 mph Miami to WPB, 110 mph WPB to Cocoa, and 110-125 mph (grade separated) Cocoa to OIA. As far as I know, nothing has changed.

 

[jis]

That is correct.

 

[user 1215]

They announced that they are working with Brevard County to add a stop after the WPB to Orlando phase is complete. Most likely because Brevard County has been mostly supportive of the project since day one.

Meanwhile, they told Treasure Coast counties that they were willing to add a stop if they worked together, but unfortunately their residents don't care and are very misinformed regarding the project.

As far as speeds, it has always been 79 mph Miami to WPB, 110 mph WPB to Cocoa, and 110-125 mph (grade separated) Cocoa to OIA. As far as I know, nothing has changed.

I suppose my point is that the opening phase is very non-dramatic - just a Tri-Rail 2. I guess my question is, wouldn't it make a bit more sense to get the rail all the way up to Cocoa (all just ROW rework) and get real, new service up fast, then phase 2 would be from Cocoa to Orlando? Maybe it wouldn't make more sense, hence the question.

As for the speed, according to the FAQs on the AAF website, they will make the 235 mile trip in 3 hours. That's an average speed of 79 mph, which doesn't seem great if your two longest legs (with or especially without stops) have maximum speeds way above that.

I'm not complaining - just trying to understand. This will still be a huge improvement over the current Silvers' schedules.

 

[cirdan]

As for the speed, according to the FAQs on the AAF website, they will make the 235 mile trip in 3 hours. That's an average speed of 79 mph, which doesn't seem great if your two longest legs (with or especially without stops) have maximum speeds way above that.

It's also a question of as fast as necessary versus as fast as possible. Seeing this is a private corporation investing private money and expecting returns, they are weighing every dollar spent against the increased revenue that dollar will deliver, and if that benefit is not there, the dollar doesn't get invested.

The line will still be single track in many places as far as I am aware. Furthermore, the ROW will be shared with freights and Tri Rail. A lot of that can be disentangled with good planning and scheduling and good timekeeping. But we don't live in a perfect world. I expect recovery time is also being factored in.

To me the 79mph average actually sound optimistic. Acela does less than that.

 

[jis]

I suppose my point is that the opening phase is very non-dramatic - just a Tri-Rail 2. I guess my question is, wouldn't it make a bit more sense to get the rail all the way up to Cocoa (all just ROW rework) and get real, new service up fast, then phase 2 would be from Cocoa to Orlando? Maybe it wouldn't make more sense, hence the question.

As for the speed, according to the FAQs on the AAF website, they will make the 235 mile trip in 3 hours. That's an average speed of 79 mph, which doesn't seem great if your two longest legs (with or especially without stops) have maximum speeds way above that.

I'm not complaining - just trying to understand. This will still be a huge improvement over the current Silvers' schedules.

The segmentation of the project has to do with timing of available funding and permits. Upto West Palm Beach is easier to do since the permits and funding were already in place.

Initially there is going to be no station in Cocoa, so it is impossible to terminate a service in Cocoa. The funding for the WPB to Orlando depends on getting approval to get the private activity bonding authority, which is imminent. Once the funding is secured construction can begin.

Cocoa was not included in the first round because it adds an additional complication in the negotiation with the Central Florida Expressway Authority regarding protection of toll revenues on 528 Tollway where its toll income which is used to guarantee the bond payments gets affected by introduction of rail service from Orlando to the Space Coast. A small tax on a ticket between Orlando and Space Coast has to be negotiated to make the Expressway Authority whole. AAF chose to postpone that complication to after the basic service between Orlando and Miami is in place.

After service begins to Orlando a station is likely to be added at a suitable location in Brevard County. The process for selecting a location for such has been started by the County in collaboration with AAF. This is also when the toll related tx on the Space Coast ticket will be agreed upon. It is likely to be somewhere between $1 and $1.50 or so per ticket is the current guess, based on the fact that the toll on two axle vehicle for one way between Orlando Airport and the eastern end of the tollway is $2.

The railroad between Maimi and Cocoa will be substantially double track, except for single track across a few movable bridges. The MAS will be mostly 110mph with several short segments of 80 and 90mph curves between WPB and Cocoa. The E-W segment between Cocoa and Orlando will have some double track and some single track. This segment will just need to support two to four tph, so is quite manageable with substantial single track. The MAS on a large portion of this segment will be 125mph. I don't see any problem meeting the projected 79mph average speed. notice the portion where there is going to be any freight interference is mostly double track with many passing sidings. So once the train departs north from WPB it should be able to sustain 110mph and 125 mph over long distances. So I don't believe 79mph is optimistic at all. These trains will face virtually no congestion interference compared to what Acelas face, and will have more sustained high speed running than Acelas manage, specially north of New York.

Any interference with Tri Rail is in the future and as part of that project there will be addition of a third track on substantial segments between Miami and WPB. At present there is no and will be no Tri-Rail service on FEC. That requires an additional EIS and the works, together with requisite funding for enhancing the infrastructure to support such.

 

[chrsjrcj]

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/gallery/business/slideshow-all-aboard-florida-presentation-florida-/gCSHy/#7143904

Slide 16 has the travel times.

Miami to Fort Lauderdale- 25 miles in 30 minutes (50 mph average speed)

Miami to West Palm Beach- 67 miles in 60 minutes (67 mph average speed). This one is a bit weird because that means Ft. Lauderdale to WPB is 42 miles in 30 minutes which is an 84 mph average speed, higher than the 79 MAS. I wonder if they plan on running direct Miami to West Palm Beach trains?

West Palm Beach to Orlando- 165 miles in 120 minutes (82.5 mph average speed)

Miami to Orlando- 235 miles in 180 minutes (78.3 mph average speed)

 

[me_little_me]

The railroad between Maimi and Cocoa will be substantially double track, except for single track across a few movable bridges.

They could eliminate the bridges by dredging the water channels below them so the water goes along at its present level then drops under where the bridge was so taller boats can navigate then slowly rises after the bridge. :giggle: :giggle:

 

[Tokkyu40]

The railroad between Maimi and Cocoa will be substantially double track, except for single track across a few movable bridges.

They could eliminate the bridges by dredging the water channels below them so the water goes along at its present level then drops under where the bridge was so taller boats can navigate then slowly rises after the bridge. :giggle: :giggle:

Proof that humor is not dead. Just wounded.

Any bets on whether people will think that's a good idea?

 

[user 1215]

Looks like former American Airlines CEO Robert Crandall is on the Anti-AAF bandwagon:

https://www.citizensagainstthetrain.com/content/politicians-who-support-all-aboard-florida-will-pay-price-citizens-will-remember#.VT-DGHtSVoE

Incidentally, I find it hilarious that the website for CARE opens with a slide of a DRAWBRIDGE opening over the Intracoastal Waterway. Those are SO much slower and back up traffic FAR worse than a train doing 79 MPH.

Meanwhile, it looks like Indian River, St. Lucie and Martin counties will not benefit from economic impact from AAF because they are suing against it. I wouldn't put a station there against such opposition.

In a separate Mason Dixon poll, here's an interesting question:

QUESTION: Have you ever been delayed either in your vehicle or boat for 10 minutes or more as a result of rail traffic?

YES 67%

NO 32%

NOT SURE 1%

Don't they realize that the infrastructure improvement will decrease dwell times for freight, while passenger train waits are often less than a traffic light?

Sounds like they polled a bunch of low information individuals.

 

[jis]

They should have also asked, "Have you ever been delayed 10 minutes or more by a drawbridge?"

Additionally they should have asked "On a typical ride from home to work how many minutes are you delayed by traffic lights?"

I suspect those three counties are pretty low on the totem pole for getting a station anytime soon. Afterall, they have to engage and decide on station locations and partially fund the stations. If they spend all their money on fattening the pockets of their lawyers they are unlikely to have any money left to do anything constructive.

My guess is that before they get a station Brevard will get two stations, the second one of course in conjunction of service between Miami and Cocoa and then onto JAX.

 

[Paulus]

"Debt of All Aboard Florida, the company owned by Fortress private-equity funds that’s building the project, has lost more than 7 percent of its market value since it was issued in June"

 

[Anderson]

Considering that at the time it was over 100, the drop isn't too shocking. I'm also not surprised that there's volatility...this is likely a rather thinly-traded commodity.

Edit: There's also quite a bit of "headline risk" with all of the lawsuits flying around, and I'm going to bet that said risk/lawsuits accounts for the risk (and, frankly, a good portion of the high bond rate). In-kind payment dilution probably isn't helping, either.

Edit 2: Some of the lawsuits are borderline risible. The one from the "Old Vero Ice Age Sites Committee" should be swatted aside fairly easily (the project has such a limited impact in terms of acreage (and being almost entirely on old ROW to boot...and this isn't Hawaii, either)) that the consultation was probably unnecessary) and the EIS one should be handled by the FONSI...but good grief, I'd love to see them forced to pay Fortress' costs.

 

[user 1215]

My guess is that before they get a station Brevard will get two stations, the second one of course in conjunction of service between Miami and Cocoa and then onto JAX.

Now that we're playing in the sandbox, if they opened a station in Cocoa and Daytona, do you think that travel to JAX from ORL would be competitive to Amtrak? It would seem inefficient to go ORL-COC-DAY-JAX, and it would be even less popular if you had to change trains in COC.

There is so much potential out there. After going to Lakeland last week (by car) the traffic on I-4 hasn't gotten any better since I lived in the area 20 years ago. They NEED rail between ORL and Tampa.

 

[MikefromCrete]

My guess is that before they get a station Brevard will get two stations, the second one of course in conjunction of service between Miami and Cocoa and then onto JAX.

Now that we're playing in the sandbox, if they opened a station in Cocoa and Daytona, do you think that travel to JAX from ORL would be competitive to Amtrak? It would seem inefficient to go ORL-COC-DAY-JAX, and it would be even less popular if you had to change trains in COC.

There is so much potential out there. After going to Lakeland last week (by car) the traffic on I-4 hasn't gotten any better since I lived in the area 20 years ago. They NEED rail between ORL and Tampa.

Could be close to having it by now, except for the governor's rejection of a high speed route as part of the Republicans' rejection of President Obama's high speed plans (also see Wisconsin and Ohio) because....oh yeah, because the Republicans didn't want to see Obama succeed at anything.

 

[jis]

My guess is that before they get a station Brevard will get two stations, the second one of course in conjunction of service between Miami and Cocoa and then onto JAX.

Now that we're playing in the sandbox, if they opened a station in Cocoa and Daytona, do you think that travel to JAX from ORL would be competitive to Amtrak? It would seem inefficient to go ORL-COC-DAY-JAX, and it would be even less popular if you had to change trains in COC.

As things stand there are two possibilities..... both requiring additional construction beyond just stations. And there is an issue about construction of a station too.

1. If run via Cocoa, then a northbound connection has to be built at Cocoa, which is not part of any plan that I am aware of. Also the proposed Brevard County station location, all the ones being considered are south of the junction with FEC. So anything going north from the Orlando link via this hypothetical northbound link would miss that station.

2. There is considerable demand from Volusia County to extend Sunrail to Daytona over a new ROW which is yet to be found (perhaps substantially along the ROW of I-4). If that happens than a service from Orlando International/Sandlake Rd to Daytona via Sanford and then onto JAX would be possible.

However, so far FEC or AAF have not mentioned anything about Orlando to JAX service. They have talked about Miami to JAX service. So it is likely at present that the only northward service they are thinking of involves a change of trains somewhere in Brevard County, and that may be one of the reasons that they are more eager to get a station in place in Brevard County than anywhere else as a first step after the basic service goes on line.

Having said that, if FEC chooses to upgrade their line from Cocoa to JAX to the same standard as what they are doing between WPB and Cocoa, then possibly even going via Brevard with a train change, it might take less time to get to JAX from Orlando International than taking the Amtrak route.

Let me add that at present all this is very hypothetical. The only thing that is likely to happen in the next 10 years is the Miami to JAX service on the FEC.

There is so much potential out there. After going to Lakeland last week (by car) the traffic on I-4 hasn't gotten any better since I lived in the area 20 years ago. They NEED rail between ORL and Tampa.

That may or may ot happen depending on how the core service to Orlando plays out. AAF has talked about the possibility at times, but that's about it for now.

 

[xyzzy]

Anyone buying AAF-related debt, either the bonds already issued or the bonds to come, knows the risk. Or should know. Heaven help us if this debt is being peddled to "widows and dentists" as Gordon Gekko put it.

 

[Anderson]

As far as I can tell, almost all of the sales were institutional sales. Lord only knows that I actually asked my broker to find out if any were for sale and he couldn't find any.

 

[me_little_me]

Looks like former American Airlines CEO Robert Crandall is on the Anti-AAF bandwagon:

https://www.citizensagainstthetrain.com/content/politicians-who-support-all-aboard-florida-will-pay-price-citizens-will-remember#.VT-DGHtSVoE

Incidentally, I find it hilarious that the website for CARE opens with a slide of a DRAWBRIDGE opening over the Intracoastal Waterway. Those are SO much slower and back up traffic FAR worse than a train doing 79 MPH.

Meanwhile, it looks like Indian River, St. Lucie and Martin counties will not benefit from economic impact from AAF because they are suing against it. I wouldn't put a station there against such opposition.

In a separate Mason Dixon poll, here's an interesting question:

QUESTION: Have you ever been delayed either in your vehicle or boat for 10 minutes or more as a result of rail traffic?

YES 67%

NO 32%

NOT SURE 1%

Don't they realize that the infrastructure improvement will decrease dwell times for freight, while passenger train waits are often less than a traffic light?

Sounds like they polled a bunch of low information individuals.

I'll bet few of them actually waited 10 minutes. Most people dramatically overguess their wait time at lights and crossings.

I was directing traffic for the local sheriff's office and after one woman was forced to wait about 30 seconds to go, she complained she had waited five minutes. I was letting traffic out of an event and giving them priority because of the number of vehicles and the small amount of traffic on the main road. At the time, she was the only person. I would check my watch and insure that nobody on the main road would have to wait longer than that before I would allow man road traffic and stop the exit traffic.

At 10mph, a mile long train crosses a point in 6 minutes.

 

[afigg]

The railroad between Maimi and Cocoa will be substantially double track, except for single track across a few movable bridges.

They could eliminate the bridges by dredging the water channels below them so the water goes along at its present level then drops under where the bridge was so taller boats can navigate then slowly rises after the bridge. :giggle: :giggle:

Actually, there is a Dutch proposed design to build a tilting sluice lock type system under bridges to provide a few meters of additional clearance for sailboats and ships. See Ingenious new sluice uses tilting action to avoid slow cycling of water for renderings and a video. Yes, it is ingenious, but strikes me as rather expensive to build and also expensive to maintain over the long term. But, if the boating community along the AAF route is upset about the issue of not being able to open the movable bridges whenever they want to, someone could pass this on as a possible solution. One they or Florida would have to pay for, not AAF. (saw this link on railroad.net).

 

[Alex M.]

Since these bridges seem to have some age to them, How soon would they need to be replaced?

 

[Ryan]

Fancy infrastructure not needed:

 

[Palmetto]

Hilarious!!

 

[jis]

Since these bridges seem to have some age to them, How soon would they need to be replaced?

Just because a bridge is old does not mean it has to be replaced. it can be overhauled and made to be pretty close to new with proper maintenance.

 

[chrsjrcj]

http://realtime.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2015/05/04/all-aboard-florida-construction-to-close-some-roads-in-downtown-wpb/

Road closures in downtown West Palm Beach. I wonder if they are adding the second track because 3rd street is north of where the proposed station site is supposed to be, and is the last railroad crossing before AAF's proposed layover facility. I imagine the real PITA will be doing the Okeechobee crossing, since it's probably the busiest road in Palm Beach County (other than I-95). Fortunately there are two crossings for Okeechobee (eastbound and westbound) with side streets connecting both, so it shouldn't be too bad of a mess.