Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[user 1215]

An article on AAF/Brightline by the Mayor of Cocoa:

http://www.floridatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/04/01/brevard-brightline-station-could-mean-development-jobs/99844848/

There are many of us in Brevard County who utterly reject the nonsensical bill being pushed by Debbie Mayfield to pander to the NIMBYs of Martin and Indian River Counties.

This verges into politics, but...
Given that district, my opinion (and it being just that, an opinion) is that there needs to be a concerted effort to primary her. The seat is a safe deep red one (she won by close to 2:1) so you're not going to get rid of her in the general election.

There are plenty of Red politicians that support rail transport. Heck, Debbie may even believe in it herself. But she's supporting what her constituents want. Perhaps by a 2:1 margin. Mr. Parrish's piece in Florida Today makes perfect economic sense, and hopefully it will either persuade her people or at least keep them from getting their own stinkin' way.

 

[Anderson]

An article on AAF/Brightline by the Mayor of Cocoa:

http://www.floridatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/04/01/brevard-brightline-station-could-mean-development-jobs/99844848/

There are many of us in Brevard County who utterly reject the nonsensical bill being pushed by Debbie Mayfield to pander to the NIMBYs of Martin and Indian River Counties.

This verges into politics, but...
Given that district, my opinion (and it being just that, an opinion) is that there needs to be a concerted effort to primary her. The seat is a safe deep red one (she won by close to 2:1) so you're not going to get rid of her in the general election.

There are plenty of Red politicians that support rail transport. Heck, Debbie may even believe in it herself. But she's supporting what her constituents want. Perhaps by a 2:1 margin. Mr. Parrish's piece in Florida Today makes perfect economic sense, and hopefully it will either persuade her people or at least keep them from getting their own stinkin' way.

As much as I hate to hit on this, the question isn't "do my voters support X", it is "how much do they care about X" and "in what context can I frame X". Moreover, in the context of the Florida legislature (with its heavy term limits) she's arguably only risking a single far-off re-election for a project that (1) is likely to end up being popular down the line, (2) which quiet inaction would probably not attract much notice, and (3) where she could probably get away with a line to the effect of "Look, I'm not a fan of this project but it isn't the job of the legislature to throw arbitrary roadblocks in the way of a private company using their property legitimately." I highly doubt she was elected solely, or even primarily, on the rail issue.

 

[jis]

I don't know where the 2:1 support for opposing Brightline comes from. It is just a random number perhaps derived from her vote margin and is nonsensical. But again this lune if discussion is a bit off base in this thread I think.

 

[Anderson]

VentureForth was, AFAICT, extrapolating. Extrapolation is always dangerous, as we know...

Anyhow, my point was more getting at the fact that this is likely a low-salience issue and I'm hard-pressed to excuse her actions on "representing her constituents" on what is likely a low-salience issue that has a good chance of flipping in the space of 3-4 years, particularly with the presumed likely addition of a station or two between West Palm Beach and Orlando. I've just got a hard time excusing something like this in context...really, a harder time than I do have excusing some of the CAHSR stuff because there I can at least see the reaction to the price tag and mismanagement (apparent and actual) and misrepresentation of the cost from the start.

Edit: To be fair, I've seen surveys which hint at strong opposition in a few of those counties, but I don't recall the methodology or sample sizes.

 

[jis]

If you follow the money and see who funded her, the reason might become a bit more obvious she is no different from any other politician left or right or center.

 

[Green Maned Lion]

Honest, true, and selflessly serving her constituents to the detriment of large corporations and special interest groups?

 

[user 1215]

Well, my point in extrapolating the margin was to bound the probable limits of the opposition. Again, I don't doubt that there are plenty of NIMBY's who would rather wait for the droll of a 35 MPH freight train fouling the grade crossings that have been there for 100 years than a sleek new 25 second inconvenience of a superfast, sleek, new train. I think that despite the efforts of Ms Debbie, the long term success of Brightline will be well received.

Now - how does Amtrak feel about Brightline stealing market share - not just from Orlando to Miami, but taking the main purpose of the Silver Star away?

Anyone have any cost/speed comparison estimates?

Currently, the Star makes the trip from Miami to Tampa (146 miles) in nearly 6 hours without delay (5 hours, 47 minutes) with fares ranging from $35-$57 (I'm almost upset how cheap folks can ride in FL!).

Miami to Orlando on the Meteor is 5 hours 25 minutes (265 miles) and cost ranges $37-59.

Brightline MIA-TPA will be around 315 miles. Wonder how long it'll take and what the cost will be?

 

[Green Maned Lion]

I would suspect that Amtrak would prefer to run a 5-sleeper, 2-diner (or diner/table), 8-coach (16 is the limit, right?) Silver Meteor than the pair of trains.

Actually, I think the route would probably best be served by a Coast line New York - Savannah day train (Palmetto) a Miami - Florence NC day train, and a Washington-Orlando day train, all running coach, business, baggage, and a cafe like the Silver Star's and a night train that ran from New York to Miami (bag, 5 sleepers, diner, table, lounge, 8 coaches) on the Silver Star's schedule to Miami, but skipping Tampa (assuming something else serves Orlando/Tampa).

Then you would have 4 frequencies on the route, one more in total than now. You would triple the frequency between Florence and Orlando, lose no specific service, still have a night train on the only schedule that actually makes sense, and I haven't done the math carefully but I don't think you'd need extra cars.- you might even need less, until your ridership ramps on intermediate traffic due to a more convienent schedule between Florida and other southern states.

 

[brianpmcdonnell17]

Well, my point in extrapolating the margin was to bound the probable limits of the opposition. Again, I don't doubt that there are plenty of NIMBY's who would rather wait for the droll of a 35 MPH freight train fouling the grade crossings that have been there for 100 years than a sleek new 25 second inconvenience of a superfast, sleek, new train. I think that despite the efforts of Ms Debbie, the long term success of Briteline will be well received.

Now - how does Amtrak feel about Briteline stealing market share - not just from Orlando to Miami, but taking the main purpose of the Silver Star away?

Anyone have any cost/speed comparison estimates?

Currently, the Star makes the trip from Miami to Tampa (146 miles) in nearly 6 hours without delay (5 hours, 47 minutes) with fares ranging from $35-$57 (I'm almost upset how cheap folks can ride in FL!).

Miami to Orlando on the Meteor is 5 hours 25 minutes (265 miles) and cost ranges $37-59.

Briteline MIA-TPA will be around 315 miles. Wonder how long it'll take and what the cost will be?

I think Brightline will take away the purpose of the SM more than the SS, even if it goes go Tampa. If Amtrak could get FEC to agree to it, I think it would make sense to operate the SM discharge/recieve only down the FEC (I seriously doubt FEC would allow Amtrak to carry intra-Florida passengers). Then the SM could be the Miami express train and the SS could be the Tampa and Orlando train. The only adjustment that would probably be necessary is to move the SS an hour earlier northbound so it could connect to the CL (I think this should happen even with the current set-up).

As to the Brightline Tampa extension, I doubt it would be more than an hour and a half to Orlando which would put the entire route to Miami at four and a half hours, over an hour faster than Amtrak. It would also stop in the South Florida downtowns and have far more frequencies. The only way Amtrak could compete is if the tickets were priced significantly lower or if Brightline consistently sold out. Also, Tampa to Miami is about 246 miles, not 146.

 

[Anderson]

Well, my point in extrapolating the margin was to bound the probable limits of the opposition. Again, I don't doubt that there are plenty of NIMBY's who would rather wait for the droll of a 35 MPH freight train fouling the grade crossings that have been there for 100 years than a sleek new 25 second inconvenience of a superfast, sleek, new train. I think that despite the efforts of Ms Debbie, the long term success of Briteline will be well received.

Now - how does Amtrak feel about Briteline stealing market share - not just from Orlando to Miami, but taking the main purpose of the Silver Star away?

Anyone have any cost/speed comparison estimates?

Currently, the Star makes the trip from Miami to Tampa (146 miles) in nearly 6 hours without delay (5 hours, 47 minutes) with fares ranging from $35-$57 (I'm almost upset how cheap folks can ride in FL!).

Miami to Orlando on the Meteor is 5 hours 25 minutes (265 miles) and cost ranges $37-59.

Briteline MIA-TPA will be around 315 miles. Wonder how long it'll take and what the cost will be?

I think Brightline will take away the purpose of the SM more than the SS, even if it goes go Tampa. If Amtrak could get FEC to agree to it, I think it would make sense to operate the SM discharge/recieve only down the FEC (I seriously doubt FEC would allow Amtrak to carry intra-Florida passengers). Then the SM could be the Miami express train and the SS could be the Tampa and Orlando train. The only adjustment that would probably be necessary is to move the SS an hour earlier northbound so it could connect to the CL (I think this should happen even with the current set-up).

As to the Brightline Tampa extension, I doubt it would be more than an hour and a half to Orlando which would put the entire route to Miami at four and a half hours, over an hour faster than Amtrak. It would also stop in the South Florida downtowns and have far more frequencies. The only way Amtrak could compete is if the tickets were priced significantly lower or if Brightline consistently sold out. Also, Tampa to Miami is about 246 miles, not 146.

With Brightline, my best guess is that Tampa-Miami will clock in at 3:55-4:00 (give or take a few based on stopping patterns, etc.). Why?

(1) Miami-Orlando is, IIRC, set for 2:55 or so over 240 miles.

(2) Presumng that the alignment from the Orlampa project were to be used, that would be 84 miles. It might be possible to "shave" this by a few miles if you don't turn around and head north to the OCCC...so call it 80-85 miles. That puts a project total at 320-325 miles.

(3) The Orlampa project was projected to cover 84 miles in 64 minutes. On the one hand, that was using faster trains (168 MPH vs 125 MPH); on the other hand, that also had three intermediate stops whereas I suspect Brightline would start with either zero or one. My guess is that the two factors would probably wash or come out slightly in Brightline's favor (the stopping-and-going on the Orlando end of the HSR project looks to have been a real killer...the average speed from OIA-Disney was only 54 MPH, dragging the overall average speed down to about 79 MPH).

Presuming that Brightline could nudge the average speed just over 80 MPH they should be able to run the last leg in about an hour; with 125 MPH trains on a "fresh" corridor that was originally planned for even faster trains, an average speed in the 80-85 MPH range should be doable.

===== ===== ===== ===== =====

As to Amtrak on the FEC line, I think there may be a bit more room for nuance depending on the relevant Amtrak timetable. I'll tentatively agree that Brightline probably doesn't want competition, but if Amtrak were running a train through at an awkward hour of the night I don't think they'd mind. Even presuming they get an operation to Jacksonville, it isn't clear what level of frequency they'd be running at. In Brightline's shoes what I'd probably do is allow "local" pax boarding on the northern end subject to Amtrak paying a per-passenger fee and agreeing to not undermine me on prices. I'd actually be tempted to use Amtrak to cover properly "local" service to keep local governments off my back (e.g. I can see the Meteor/Star making about a dozen stops along the way while Brightline only makes 4-5) and possibly help cover some station costs. Basically, I would want (limited) Amtrak service because it's a potential cash cow and if (for example) I can hit Amtrak for $10/passenger plus some sort of track-usage fee and then get some cash off of those passengers on top of that (for parking, in-station revenue, etc.), that's probably a few million dollars in the bank each year for me.

 

[A Voice]

Well, my point in extrapolating the margin was to bound the probable limits of the opposition. Again, I don't doubt that there are plenty of NIMBY's who would rather wait for the droll of a 35 MPH freight train fouling the grade crossings that have been there for 100 years than a sleek new 25 second inconvenience of a superfast, sleek, new train. I think that despite the efforts of Ms Debbie, the long term success of Briteline will be well received.

Now - how does Amtrak feel about Briteline stealing market share - not just from Orlando to Miami, but taking the main purpose of the Silver Star away?

Anyone have any cost/speed comparison estimates?

Currently, the Star makes the trip from Miami to Tampa (146 miles) in nearly 6 hours without delay (5 hours, 47 minutes) with fares ranging from $35-$57 (I'm almost upset how cheap folks can ride in FL!).

Miami to Orlando on the Meteor is 5 hours 25 minutes (265 miles) and cost ranges $37-59.

Briteline MIA-TPA will be around 315 miles. Wonder how long it'll take and what the cost will be?

I think Brightline will take away the purpose of the SM more than the SS, even if it goes go Tampa. If Amtrak could get FEC to agree to it, I think it would make sense to operate the SM discharge/recieve only down the FEC (I seriously doubt FEC would allow Amtrak to carry intra-Florida passengers). Then the SM could be the Miami express train and the SS could be the Tampa and Orlando train. The only adjustment that would probably be necessary is to move the SS an hour earlier northbound so it could connect to the CL (I think this should happen even with the current set-up).

As to the Brightline Tampa extension, I doubt it would be more than an hour and a half to Orlando which would put the entire route to Miami at four and a half hours, over an hour faster than Amtrak. It would also stop in the South Florida downtowns and have far more frequencies. The only way Amtrak could compete is if the tickets were priced significantly lower or if Brightline consistently sold out. Also, Tampa to Miami is about 246 miles, not 146.

Any Amtrak operation over Florida East Coast, both now and prior to Brightline plans, must be done in a manner which preserves (at a minimum) the current level of service to the popular leisure travel market at Orlando. Ideally the service would return to the former model of splitting trains at Jacksonville; There's no longer a Tampa servicing facility, but there is at Sanford (terminate a section in Orlando).

Just thinking out loud, but service to Tampa would seem to be best provided by a section sent down the S-line, and from there terminating at either Miami or Orlando.

 

[jis]

It would be a miracle if there is ever an LD passenger operation through Ocala again. But hey, who knows?

 

[jis]

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-orlando-opposes-brightline-bill-resolution-20170410-story.html

 

[jis]

More on Brightline train delivery. Orange and Green will be delivered together in a few weeks ...

http://gobrightline.com/progress/tale-two-trains-brightorange-train/?utm_source=brightline&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=brightorange_brightgreen&utm_content=cta

 

[jphjaxfl]

It would be nice if Amtrak could have its new cars delivered as efficiently as the Brightline's beautiful new trains

 

[A Voice]

Siemens is going to get that completed BrightGreen train off shop trucks prior to delivery, right?

 

[MattW]

Siemens is going to get that completed BrightGreen train off shop trucks prior to delivery, right?

You mean those wouldn't be good for 110mph?

 

[WoodyinNYC]

Thanks, jis.

More on Brightline train delivery. Orange and Green will be delivered together in a few weeks ...

http://gobrightline.com/progress/tale-two-trains-brightorange-train/?utm_source=brightline&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=brightorange_brightgreen&utm_content=cta

This info from the Brightline site linked above may be old news to any who follow this project closely. But for the rest of us, a nice summary:

All of Brightline’s trains are being built by nearly 1,000 employees at Siemens 60-acre rail manufacturing hub in Sacramento, California. To build the coaches, Siemens opened a new 125,000 square foot expansion of its rail manufacturing hub, including a new state of the art welding site. The trains are 100 percent Buy America compliant, utilizing components from more than 40 suppliers across 20+ states. As an example, the guest seats are being manufactured near Chicago, the vestibule doors in Littleton, Colorado and the large windows in Emporia, Virginia.

Each trainset consists of two diesel-electric locomotives, one on each end of four passenger coaches. These locomotives are Tier IV compliant, meaning that they meet the highest emissions standards set by the federal government.

The stainless steel passenger coaches are the first to be manufactured by Siemens in the United States. Brightline’s coaches include many innovations and are designed for guest comfort and convenience. These innovations include level boarding, touchless bathrooms, full accessibility, large, comfortable seats, onboard wi-fi, storage for luggage and bicycles and more.

The more American tourists ride these trains, the more people will ask, "Why can't Amtrak have nice trains like this?" Well, Congresscritter, what's the multi-Billion dollar answer?

About $10 Billion for enuff new, additional equipment to add a sleeper and 1 or 2 coaches to every LD train. About 70 more Viewliner IIs; then replace and add to single-level cars, giving the fleet 1,000 coaches and lounges for service east of the Mississippi; replace and add cars to bring the bi-level fleet to about 900 units for the West; more bi-level coaches for corridor services (beyond the current stalled order); and get new locomotives to use all over the country. So a mere $2 Billion per annum for 5 or 6 years to completely re-equip Amtrak.

And at least $75 Billion for upgraded infrastructure for more and better corridor services. At $7.5 Billion a year for 10 years, this amount is about double what was proposed in rail-friendly budgets in recent years.

All my estimates may be on the low side, but with at least $85 Billion, Amtrak could increase its service levels much closer to those of the Brightline.

 

[cirdan]

The more American tourists ride these trains, the more people will ask, "Why can't Amtrak have nice trains like this?" Well, Congresscritter, what's the multi-Billion dollar answer?

.

But it could equally backfire.

People might think, this is what a private company can do. It looks way nicer than what Amtrak has to offer. So its time to split up and defund Amtrak.

That would be a catastrophe.

 

[jis]

This is way outside the scope of this thread, but I think what is important is to get a national transportation strategy and plan in place that includes passenger rail as an equal participant. Whether the actual implementation is via Amtrak or a collection of state agencies or a mix of private and public is an issue that needs to be dealt with under that broader framework, in order for everything to not be just ad hoc tinkering, which is the case right now.

What would be important within such a strategy would be to keep the Long Distance business within a single entity and fund it adequately. Just like Commuter systems have already been separated out, it is conceivable that intrastate or regional services are handled by an organization separate from the LD one. What is important is to have a common fare instrument and performance KPIs driving a well structured contract between the funding agency and the service providing vendor. At least I do not view protecting the current Amtrak edifice as the highest priority within such a broader scope approach. Keeping Amtrak in its present form alive and well will remain the highest priority however, as long as it is the proxy for a currently absent national strategy for transportation that includes rail as an equal player.

 

[cirdan]

At least I do not view protecting the current Amtrak edifice as the highest priority within such a broader scope approach. Keeping Amtrak in its present form alive and well will remain the highest priority however, as long as it is the proxy for a currently absent national strategy for transportation that includes rail as an equal player.

I couldn't agree more.

 

[Caesar La Rock]

Oh damn.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/os-airport-train-station-uncertain-20170423-story.html

 

[Brian_tampa]

Oh damn.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/os-airport-train-station-uncertain-20170423-story.html

I would not be too concerned as AAF has been saying since last year there will be a 30 month construction schedule for phase 2. And they have been saying lately that phase 2 construction wont begin until after phase 1 is operational. So service to Orlando 30 months from October 2017 puts the start up date sometime spring 2020. They are quietly accumulating all the required permits for phase 2. So the opponents can only stop phase 2 if, and only if, AAF has no other source of funding other than the Private Activity Bonds (PAB's). But Mr. Reininger (Executive Director of FECI, former CEO of AAF) has said that AAF will obtain financing, implying it might not be PAB's.

 

[jis]

I concur with Brian. That article is mostly about difficulties being faced by SunRail. It is not saying anything new about Brightline and is not indicating any schedule slippage, though it is trying mighty hard to imply something bad to make it a better clickbait.

 

[cirdan]

I concur with Brian. That article is mostly about difficulties being faced by SunRail. It is not saying anything new about Brightline and is not indicating any schedule slippage, though it is trying mighty hard to imply something bad to make it a netter clickbait.

True.

And there does not appear to be much synergy between Sunrain and Brightline, unlike the hosting of Tri-rail by FEC in Miami.

I don't think Sunrail happening or not happening will have much impact on Brightline one way or the other.

I still believe that sooner or later there is going to be a rail-based (or lets call it non-highway, as it could be BRT) urban publc-transportaion system in the Orlando area just because it's just crazy for a multi-centric metro area of that size and significance not to have any attractive alternative to driving. But I don't think Sunrail need necessarily be the base of that, or is necessarily the best tool for the job.

If you can do that sort of thing for less with BRT or Maglev or whatever, I would welcome that too.