Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[the_traveler]

FYI - There is no “Chat”. A chat window opens, but after you type your question, it says to email CS and they will respond within 24 hours!

So why even have a chat window?

 

[jis]

Yeah, it is a bit weird. I have had someone chatting with me on that window at times, and at other times it forwards to the "send email" bot.

While you are at it, do include a complaint about the email thing in the email message too.

 

[the_traveler]

They did respond, and said reservations are not yet open past 12/31 - and try again “in a few weeks”! :blink:

I guess the trains will be very empty on 1/1/2019!

 

[jis]

They did respond, and said reservations are not yet open past 12/31 - and try again “in a few weeks”! :blink:

I guess the trains will be very empty on 1/1/2019!

Frankly, I don't think they have a huge number of reservations this far out anyway. Typically they start filling up two weeks before departure. The fare does not change all that much either.

 

[jis]

Article on Brightline Phase II in the Trains Magazine:

http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2017/10/20-brightline-update?fbclid=IwAR3zIEsRoDNTB-qmESArjy9TDNQBkzo7M1FrfIjJwkKtBtkwB2jp2Zucl7M

 

[PerRock]

Apparently Richard Branson is dipping his hand into the US rail market. Brightline has partnered with Virgin Group, and will be rebranded as "Virgin Rail USA"

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2018/11/16/brightline-partners-with-virgin-group-as-it-plans.html

peter

 

[Pere Flyer]

Apparently Richard Branson is dipping his hand into the US rail market. Brightline has partnered with Virgin Group, and will be rebranded as "Virgin Rail USA"
https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2018/11/16/brightline-partners-with-virgin-group-as-it-plans.html
peter

[emoji47] That was a sincerely unexpected move.

 

[PRR 60]

Here's an article not behind a paywall:

SunSentinal

 

[cpotisch]

Apparently Richard Branson is dipping his hand into the US rail market. Brightline has partnered with Virgin Group, and will be rebranded as "Virgin Rail USA"

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2018/11/16/brightline-partners-with-virgin-group-as-it-plans.html

peter

What the hell?! That really came out of nowhere. :huh:

And for the record, I quite like the name "Brightline" as well as its color scheme, so I'm a bit sad that it's probably about to be replaced with something like this:

 

[Anderson]

On the one hand, I'm sorry to see the Brightline branding vanish.

On the other hand, based on everything else I've seen attached to the Virgin brand, the two are a good match.  In the scheme of things, this is probably going to involve some sort of tie-up with Virgin Atlantic, too, btw (if only through a shared loyalty program).  SRB is also still smarting from the Virgin America acquisition and he did say he wanted back into the US market.

 

[leemell]

It is probably good news for the XW line too.  New money.

 

[AGM.12]

I had thought, or hoped, that the NEC operations would be rebranded Virgin USA. 

 

[chrsjrcj]

It appears an IPO is forthcoming. Time for some to put their money where their mouth is! 

https://www.ft.com/content/dcc94a18-e9aa-11e8-a34c-663b3f553b35?fbclid=IwAR2vPfm7WbA2_iSIQR3d_f7ndr6eyCzXsR1GjZX9b8wMuwsQkB0hW2ic8do

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1737516/000114036118043289/s002218x4_s1.htm?fbclid=IwAR1SaO7KKHBXG9EGw9OdiBTKjKvYoQgwlQL2qF9TYjo5DmPxiao7VQNq5sg#tDP

 

[Anderson]

My guess is that this is tied up with the Tampa situation and/or Southern California.  Orlando-Tampa really does create a much stronger operational profile for the Florida operation (since that adds several market subsets to the picture).

Also, checking that map in the SEC filing?  I had a feeling they were going to try and steal the Surfliner as soon as the Vegas stuff got up and rolling.  Looks like they're really going hard on this (though in their shoes, I probably wouldn't hold my breath on the NEC...even if I could lever operational control away from Amtrak, the SOGR shortfall there is enough to make me run very fast in the other direction).

Edit: I've packed an analysis into the other thread.  Bottom line is that the numbers are rather a mixed bag as-is.

 

[user 1215]

Wow. All I can say is that they can sure keep a secret!

 

[leemell]

Here is an article with a Las Vegas perspective on the Virgin/Brighine: https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/tourism/richard-branson-virgin-to-partner-with-brightline-high-speed-rail-1528571/

 

[jis]

Draft of SEC filing from Virgin Trains (USA)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1737516/000114036118043289/s002218x4_s1.htm

 

[Brian_tampa]

October ridership at 60,000. Revenue for the month at $1M

View attachment ES1215520-ES949214-ES1350042.pdf

 

[user 1215]

Anderson? Seems to exceed even your estimates. This is good news. 

As for Virgin, 8 think the line will be Virgin Trains USA's Brightline. I don't expect to see everything going into the paint shop for a major redo.

 

[Anderson]

Technically, it didn't exceed them since my estimates were for September;-)

Looking at the numbers for Q3, this suggests another 30-50% growth quarter-over-quarter.  I have little doubt that October beat September in terms of ridership by a good bit.  One thing to note is that Brightline added additional weekend trains in October, which can't help but have helped.  I'll slap some additional notes down elsewhere, but it looks like PPR is pretty steady while ridership is moving upwards solidly.

 

[chrsjrcj]

The SEC filing says they expect the average fare between Miami and West Palm to be $50 per passenger. That's double what they charge now.   At least Miami to Orlando for $100 sounds somewhat more reasonable. 

 

[cirdan]

On the one hand, I'm sorry to see the Brightline branding vanish.

On the other hand, based on everything else I've seen attached to the Virgin brand, the two are a good match.  In the scheme of things, this is probably going to involve some sort of tie-up with Virgin Atlantic, too, btw (if only through a shared loyalty program).  SRB is also still smarting from the Virgin America acquisition and he did say he wanted back into the US market.

Virgin's rail operations in the UK were not exactly a success and probably damaged the Virgin brand more than it leveraged it.

 

[Anderson]

Virgin's rail operations in the UK were not exactly a success and probably damaged the Virgin brand more than it leveraged it.

The West Coast franchise has arguably been a success (they've had it for 21 years).  CrossCountry also didn't seem to have many issues other than the ill-fated frequency increase, while the East Coast situation has been a running problem for the last few decades and every operator has run into problems with it (not to mention that the nature of the franchise system there is a bit problematic).

 

[jis]

East Coast was also mostly First Group with Virgin holding a 10% interest. Management was entirely from the First Group side and the financial hit was also on the First Group side of things. Also there really was no complaint about the quality of service, which is what the Virgin brand was primarily associated with.

I think on the whole Virgin Trains has a positive impression in balance. The only thing that they control almost fully has done well.

 

[AGM.12]

Once Brightline is built out and proves itself successfully, I can see that Virgin will buy the rest of it and run it as Virgin. The same with Vegas to LA and any where else this model will apply.