Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[jadebenn]

Amtrak has looked at service on the FEC. I'm not entirely sure why it didn't come together, however, but at least to begin with Amtrak never had the right to bulldoze their way onto FEC since FEC got out of the passenger business prior to A-Day. This is similar to the lack of service to Des Moines: The Rock Island never joined Amtrak, so Amtrak never had "automatic" access rights there.

The timing of the original "All Aboard Florida" announcement leads me to suspect that the causality might be reversed. I believe that the Amtrak on the FEC planning may be what initially caused the FEC to become interested in running their own service in the first place. I don't think it's too unlikely to believe that the FEC hired a consultant to check if Amtrak's numbers were realistic and got a response like, "Actually we think they're underestimating them."

The reason I believe this to be the case is due to how quickly the FEC moved forward after the Florida HSR project was canceled. They clearly must've been doing studies even before then, and the 'go/no-go' decision must've been made prior to the announcement. Thus, I don't think it's very plausible for them to come to a decision so quickly if they hadn't been looking into the issue prior to the cancellation of the HSR, though I'm certain that played into it, the timeline definitely suggests they were already looking into the idea when that happened.

 

[Anderson]

I don't think it was the Amtrak/FEC study that was the trigger (if that was, Phase II would have been Jacksonville; as-is, Jacksonville is quite a way down the track). I think it was the abandonment of the HSR project and the relevant projections underlying the ridership there (combined with their expectation of being able to do the job for less).

 

[cocojacoby]

Well, that's a mouthful. It will take longer to say the station name than take the train ride!

No more so than Brightline MiamiCentral.

 

[Mystic River Dragon]

Oh, good point. I always just called it Brightline, being happy to be in whatever station I ended up in!

 

[AmtrakWPK]

Some thoughts.... Here in Orlando I was happy to see that they got approval for the Bonds for the entire project up through Orlando. From Press coverage up here, the plan is to have an actual station inside the new Terminal they are building at MCO. Also, from local Orlando TV reporting, there is now increasing interest for extending SunRail to that new MCO Terminal as well. That Terminal is still a long way from being finished, though. Right now there is only a part-time Bus Bridge between MCO and SunRail. Sunrail only runs M-F, **AND** only from just before rush hour until late at night. It is NOT 24-hour, and does NOT operate on Weekends except for rare special events. So you are really limited in when you can use it. Your return flight would have to be during a time when SunRail would be running, or you're stuck with a long taxi or Uber or bus ride. If/when they extend SunRail to MCO it would presumably go to 24/7/365. That would also be GREAT for connecting with VIrgin to Miami.

 

[jis]

I have actually been to the MCO Brightline station which is adjacent to the Terminal C APM station. The basic structure, concourse and platforms are complete awaiting installation of tracks. Brightline currently has a construction office in the structure.

So no, the station is not in the air terminal C concourse. It is in a structure adjacent to the C parking structure, all connected by an integral wide multi level walkway. The terminal C concourse is currently under construction. The Brightline Station, the APM C station and C parking structure are done, and the APM C station and C parking lot are open and serving. I have even parked there a couple of times.

Extending SunRail to the MCO station will involving constructing an additional platform of the correct height for SunRail. There is space preserved for it, but that part is yet to be funded and built, unlike the Brightline part, which is already done.

 

[GBNorman]

So it appears that the industry trade magazine, Bond Buyer, reports the private placement by Morgan Stanley was successful.

Fair Use:

The Virgin Trains USA name made a hit with qualified investors who eagerly scooped up its high-yield bonds to finance Florida’s privately owned passenger train project.

In the largest municipal bond deal of the week, the $1.75 billion of unrated private activity bonds priced Monday with the Florida Development Finance Corp. as the conduit issuer on behalf Virgin Trains USA, formerly known as Brightline.

The deal, upsized from $1.5 billion initially proposed in bond documents, priced a day ahead of schedule because of strong demand.

Morgan Stanley, the sole underwriter, said 67 participants sought orders after “very successful” roadshows in Boston and New York. In-person site visits also allowed prospective investors to ride the train service on its current route between Miami and West Palm Beach, which offers passengers wireless internet service, electrical power and USB outlets at all seats, and food and drink service.

Something tells me, these institutional investors, while enjoying their "tax free 6%", are placing their bets that if "things go South" they can take seats at the "Tallytrough" - and be fed.

 

[jadebenn]

Sorry for the crappy resolution, but it looks like we've finally got a look at the new livery they're going to be rolling out to their trains:

I mean, it's okay, but I am gonna miss the yellow-and-black when it's gone. Hoping that this is just a preliminary design, and the final design turns out better.

 

[Brian_tampa]

I have read that the new livery will include elements of the Brightline scheme. They are considering 3 different liveries.

Here are some pics of the future station area at the ITF building. I was there yesterday as part of the group of supporters that attended the FDFC meeting. Also shown is the new Virgin Trains USA shirt they handed out before the meeting.

 

[GBNorman]

As of this moment (0934CT 08APR), https://www.gobrightline.com is "dark"

 

[jis]

It is working fine for me. As of this moment that is.

 

[GBNorman]

Jishnu. I will gladly concede you know more about this stuff than I do.

I tried my phone first through Mobile Data (Verizon) going nowhere near Comcast and got the site complete with its "Bransonizing". Then again through Comcast (with Mobile Date off) and its Chrome browser. It worked. Up to the desktop, no different through IE. Rang up Chrome, it worked. Also worked through Microsoft Edge. So I can only conclude the problem is with IE.

 

[neroden]

I just... well... Brightline is great 'n all, but Miami's doomed. In 30 years, not 50. I wish we could get this sort of service up and running somewhere which isn't gonna have permanent "sunny day flooding".

 

[JRR]

You mean like Holland? Whoops, they aren’t flooded.

 

[sitzplatz17]

You mean like Holland? Whoops, they aren’t flooded.

]

Except the Netherlands has spent the better part of a century and billions of euros on flood management systems. Not to mention the fact that the soil in Florida is completely different than the type in the Netherlands.

There’s a good chance that major parts of the FEC will be underwater before they ever make it to JAX with passenger service.

 

[Anderson]

Yeah...the problem with Miami (really, most of Florida) is that it's porous limestone. That's why you've got all the lakes throughout the central part of the state (and I've occasionally been able to make "sinkhole de Mayo" jokes...the stuff weathers pretty badly and you occasionally get a hole opening up underground that you don't know about until the ground collapses). If it was hard bedrock you might be able to block the sea out with some expensive seawalls assisted by aggressive pumping, but the local limestone won't really allow for that.

Credit to Henry Flagler, I've pulled the flood maps for Miami. As far as I can tell, with the exception of where it crosses a river, the FEC line is high enough to avoid landing in a puddle (so to speak). It seems to roughly track a ridge at least as far as Hallandale Beach/Hollywood.

 

[cirdan]

The reason I believe this to be the case is due to how quickly the FEC moved forward after the Florida HSR project was canceled. They clearly must've been doing studies even before then, and the 'go/no-go' decision must've been made prior to the announcement. Thus, I don't think it's very plausible for them to come to a decision so quickly if they hadn't been looking into the issue prior to the cancellation of the HSR, though I'm certain that played into it, the timeline definitely suggests they were already looking into the idea when that happened.

Cynics might speculate that the HSR project was possibly cancelled at the request of FEC.

 

[cirdan]

]

Except the Netherlands has spent the better part of a century and billions of euros on flood management systems. Not to mention the fact that the soil in Florida is completely different than the type in the Netherlands.

There’s a good chance that major parts of the FEC will be underwater before they ever make it to JAX with passenger service.

The Netherlands aren't as simple as all that. They don't have sinkholes to contend with, but the soil is sandy down to a considerable depth meaning it isn't easy to make things stable and erosion can happen quite quickly if water does find a way in. The metaphoric hole in the dike that can be blocked by a finger could in reality soon wash out into a far bigger breach.

Another major problem the Netherlands need to contend with are the major rivers that form a delta in the south of the country. Blocking off the sea is one thing, but you've still got to ensure the rivers can flow into the sea, and seeing water only flows downhill, and the river must thus be higher than the sea to flow into the sea, and the land is lower than the sea, this means the rivers are higher than the land too in places. That means more dikes and barriers. They have enormous sluice gates with which they can close the rivers off temporarily during storms but this also means they have to be able to retain and store all that water which they do through the controlled and managed flooding of certain portions of land.

Protecting against storms is one thing, but the normal everyday erosion is also a big problem and they have put in underwater sandbanks in places to reduce the force of the waves.

So it's all very sophisticated and there isn't a one size fits all solution. Basically every bit of coast needs a customized solution that respects the peculirarities of the local situation and the interests of the local population, fishermen, shipping channels etc. If they can do, I'm sure Florida can too.

 

[Ziv]

I just... well... Brightline is great 'n all, but Miami's doomed. In 30 years, not 50. I wish we could get this sort of service up and running somewhere which isn't gonna have permanent "sunny day flooding".

The most recent data I have seen is that sea level rise rate has increased from 1.5" per decade since the end of the Little Ice Age to approximately 2" per decade over the past 20-30 years. Getting 99.9% of South Florida safely to 2060 shouldn't be an issue. Or are you thinking that subsidence is the real issue? I thought that FL DEP was looking at subsidence as a spot issue, not a regional one. But I have to admit that I haven't been following it that closely.

 

[cirdan]

The most recent data I have seen is that sea level rise rate has increased from 1.5" per decade since the end of the Little Ice Age to approximately 2" per decade over the past 20-30 years. Getting 99.9% of South Florida safely to 2060 shouldn't be an issue. Or are you thinking that subsidence is the real issue? I thought that FL DEP was looking at subsidence as a spot issue, not a regional one. But I have to admit that I haven't been following it that closely.

When it comes to securing land and buildings, almost nothing is genuinely impossible, it's just a question of how much you're willing to spend.

So my guess is that if some swamps get flooded, nobody will do much to stop that. But when it comes to the extremely valuable areas such as Miami, the owners of the real estate are not going to sit back and watch that all wash away into the sea. They are going to spend money to protect their investment.

 

[Ziv]

When it comes to securing land and buildings, almost nothing is genuinely impossible, it's just a question of how much you're willing to spend.

So my guess is that if some swamps get flooded, nobody will do much to stop that. But when it comes to the extremely valuable areas such as Miami, the owners of the real estate are not going to sit back and watch that all wash away into the sea. They are going to spend money to protect their investment.

Yeah, South Beach has already started a couple projects using pumps and embankments to compartmentalize the flooding and to pump out the water. The problem, and there is always a problem, is that the ground underneath Miami Beach is sand on limestone, both of which are permeable. So any full moon you end up with flooding from the higher tides and the water table probably rises to match. But the pumps apparently remove the water faster than the soil allows it to flow in, or at least that is what it sounded like in the articles I read about them de-watering Miami Beach neighborhoods.

If the recent increase in sea level rise rate continues, it still doesn't seem like it will be all that expensive to protect most of Miami until 2080 or so. But once the rise is over a foot higher than the current levels, it seems like the cost to protect existing neighborhoods will increase relatively drastically. But how many of the buildings in the areas most at risk will be replaced with newer construction with a buildup in the ground level to protect them? Most of the larger roads are being built higher, maybe the majority of the new buildings will be built higher too?
Some areas are probably toast, but oddly enough, one of the worst areas, South Beach and the islands nearby, is rich enough that they will probably find a way to protect it, at a cost that would be ruinous elsewhere.

 

[jis]

Having seen entire villages that are built on stilts, including roads sometimes, in SE and South Asia, it seems to me that it all depends on how long people want to live in an area, and how much resource they are willing to devote to doing so. The SE and South Asia villages are of course all relatively low resource consumption operations and they have existed successfully for many hundreds of years, even in areas that are visited by powerful typhoons every so often. Sometimes they get wiped out and then rebuild. Sound familiar?

Depending on how the sea level rise rate behaves, things could get worse. But with the current rate, I agree that Miami will be around and possibly thriving even in 2060. The map might look quite different, but then 40 years is a long time.

In the area where I live in East Central Florida in the so called Hammock country, sea level will have to rise considerably to overwhelm the Hammocks and much less so for the "vallies" between the Hammocks. For example, my house is roughly at 30' above MSL. Five miles from here there are localities in the St. Johns River flood plains on the landward side of the Hammock which is just 13' above MSL. St. Johns River is around 10' or so above MSL, and that is 180 miles from its mouth near Jacksonville. OTOH Highway 1 along the Indian River Lagoon is at place more than 10' above MSL, and FEC in most places is about that high or a little higher.

One thing that is unheard of here is sink holes (I have sink hole insurance for $2 per year. That should tell you something!), which suggests that the geology under Brevard is different from the Florida stereotype that everyone thinks about. Indeed Brevard County has no thick layer of old hollowed out Limestone under it. Actually it does not even have Limestone everywhere and where it does it is a thin, new (around 120,000 years old), solid layer, and with the so called Anastasia Formation of Pleistocene Sediment on it, which holds the surficial aquifer which among other things feeds the source of St. Johns River, which is southwest of here, west of the City of Palm Bay. The porous, leaky and full of caverns old Limestone in other parts of the state is 20 to 25 million years old. On the east coast it is mostly south of Palm Beach and holds the Biscayne Acquifer.

 

[cirdan]

Having seen entire villages that are built on stilts, including roads sometimes, in SE and South Asia, it seems to me that it all depends on how long people want to live in an area, and how much resource they are willing to devote to doing so. The SE and South Asia villages are of course all relatively low resource consumption operations and they have existed successfully for many hundreds of years, even in areas that are visited by powerful typhoons every so often. Sometimes they get wiped out and then rebuild. Sound familiar?

Things like that make you wonder why the people living there don't just give up, pack their belongings and build a new village in a more suitable location. Maybe in places poverty has something to do with it, but I think it is also largely because they do actually make a living precisely there and the benefits thus outweigh the disadvantages.

The same is true in The Netherlands. The same is true in Florida.

 

[jis]

Things like that make you wonder why the people living there don't just give up, pack their belongings and build a new village in a more suitable location. Maybe in places poverty has something to do with it, but I think it is also largely because they do actually make a living precisely there and the benefits thus outweigh the disadvantages.

The same is true in The Netherlands. The same is true in Florida.

Indeed. They would have to leave familiar surroundings, move hundred of miles to areas that are already populated by other people, leading to all sorts of unnecessary conflicts etc. It will take way more than a few feet of water to cause anyone to move too far. OTOH for someone on a coral reef where the entire thing will be a few feet under water with nowhere to grow food or carry out any commerce, now that becomes a different issue.

And yeah, in Asia we are not talking about of 10 or 15 years. We are talking 10 or 50 generations.

 

[Willbridge]

Credit to Henry Flagler, I've pulled the flood maps for Miami. As far as I can tell, with the exception of where it crosses a river, the FEC line is high enough to avoid landing in a puddle (so to speak). It seems to roughly track a ridge at least as far as Hallandale Beach/Hollywood.

Sidebar about those rail pioneers: years ago I helped with the Oregon DOT's Lower Columbia River Study using overlays of every sort of issue. One objective was to identify locations good for industrial development with minimal impacts. We found that the best real estate was at Flavel, owned by-- BN. It was where their pier had been for Astoria--San Francisco steamship service. They had beaten everyone else to the site three generations before we worked on the study.