Covid will dictate the future

[joelkfla]

I wouldn't rely on the New York Post for your science news, myself. They specialize in 'alarming' as a business model. But even the version of the study in the Post says that the biggest problem is cotton fabrics. Guess which fabric is extraordinarily unlikely to find in an Amtrak sleeping-car? Hint: it stains badly and is not at all abrasion resistant...

No, it says polyester is worst, followed by cotton, and then polyester-cotton blend being the least worrisome.

Between polyester, a poly-cotton blend and 100% cotton fabrics, the polyester posed the greatest risk, even after 72 hours; on full-cotton samples, the virus lasted one day, while the poly-cotton blend remained contaminated by viral droplets — designed to mimic human saliva — for just six hours. ​

 

[jis]

Weren't Cardboard boxes and packing material also supposed to be terribly dangerous for a while? AFAICT fomite driven infection, something that initially was believed to be the primary infection vector, apparently based on not much, is basically an extremely minor to a non-issue, specially for those that keep their hands clean, except for those that want to continue worrying about it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/scourge-hygiene-theater/614599/
The original paper in Lancet is also worth reading if anyone is into digging deeper into the subject.

 

[Barb Stout]

I'll repeat what the a nurse in my doctor's office told me the other day "People are getting the vaccine because they are desperate to get their old lives back - but they won't". What she went on to explain is that masks are going to continue indefinitely and that social distancing and other safety measures are here to stay. I've been reaading that there is now a theory that those who have been vaccinated could still transmit the virus even a month or more after receiving the vaccine. That means that the vaccinated must go on with the masks. So will there be no relief - ever? This article reports on how the virus lingers on fabrics for three days. Just how safe is an Amtrak sleeping-car compartment if this is the case? Alarming COVID-19 study finds virus survives on fabric for 3 days

With regard to that article, I suspect the authors wrote that in part to get any medical facilities who were not already washing their staff's uniforms to do so instead of allowing them to take them home. When I worked in hospital laboratories, the hospital contracted with professionals that did the laundry not only for hospital linens, but also lab coats. We were not to take them home for washing or any other purpose. I am not sure what other hospital staffers do with their gear such as scrubs, but I would imagine it is similar. Can anyone herein speak to that?

 

[Ferroequinologist]

Excellent point.

I suspect it has to do with so much being shut down, all the social isolation, extensive hand washing and much better hygiene.

 

[nti1094]

The Post quotes a study. The Post did not conduct the study.

They don’t cite the exact source, and knowing their history, it’s unlikely peer reviewed.

 

[Bob Dylan]

They don’t cite the exact source, and knowing their history, it’s unlikely peer reviewed.

Murdock Media is Infamous for quoting unknown sources, ie Made up, in lots of instances!

 

[Barb Stout]

They don’t cite the exact source, and knowing their history, it’s unlikely peer reviewed.

Near the bottom of the article, it indicates that the study has been submitted to a journal that will have peer review. Also, there is another link in the article that leads to another article with a lot more information.

 

[nti1094]

Murdock Media is Infamous for quoting unknown sources, ie Made up, in lots of instances!

Or quoting KGB sources or assets. It really is just trash in terms of journalism.

A quick search of Pubmed and Academia App finds a lot of papers citing the exact opposite, but nothing definitive because it’s all so “novel!” Certainly worth considering to be careful, because it can’t hurt.

It seems like this has been going on forever, yet it has really just barely been a year. Less than a year for our lockdown in the USA. It’s mind blowing how deeply society has been affected and the changes this has caused. Not to mention a little terrifying.

One thing I bring with me on my trips is a UV-C lamp. Not the little useless handheld ones they sell everywhere now, but one that you might find in a hospital room. It certainly cleans any surface you pass over (slowly). But they can be dangerous, I would not recommend without proper UV blocking eye protection, and you cannot leave it running continuously while you occupy the roomette or bedroom because at the 150 to 180 nm wavelength the UV reacts with oxygen to form O3 (Ozone) which is an irritant for humans.

 

[Ferroequinologist]

Murdock Media is Infamous for quoting unknown sources, ie Made up, in lots of instances!

I'm sorry the Post is not up to your standards. Is the BBC acceptable to you? Here is a BBC report stating the same as the Post: University study finds Covid survives three days on fabric

 

[Ferroequinologist]

I've yet to see anything that indicates secondary surface contact is a major infection vector for C19. That's not to say it cannot happen but washing or sanitizing your hands should be enough to prevent it.


If enough of us get vaccinated we should be able to get rid of the masks. If you hate wearing masks push for more vaccinations.

First of all, vaccines are not 100% effective. Second, read this from the Smithsonian:

"Since scientists haven’t yet found evidence that the vaccines provide mucosal immunity, someone who is vaccinated and has no symptoms of illness may be carrying the live SARS-CoV-2 virus and spreading it to others when they cough, breath or sneeze."

Source: Yes, You Should Still Wear a Mask After Covid-19 Vaccination

Remember, these are experimental vaccines that have no more than emergency authorization. There is a lot that we do not yet know however as things stand it looks as though masks are going to be around for a long time no matter how many are vaccinated.

As for the spread of the virus through fabrics, especially polyester, see the BBC link I posted elsewhere in this thread.

Scientists do not know if life will ever return to normal. That's the reality our leaders aren't telling us.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

"Since scientists haven’t yet found evidence that the vaccines provide mucosal immunity, someone who is vaccinated and has no symptoms of illness may be carrying the live SARS-CoV-2 virus and spreading it to others when they cough, breath or sneeze."

If I'm gathering with others who have all been vaccinated, like at a home party, I won't feel the need to wear my mask. Even if someone is asymptomatic and gives me the virus, I will most likely not have bad enough symptoms to need to go to the hospital. So, yes, we will not need to wear the mask in as many places as we have to now.

 

[jis]

I am already wearing the mask much less. Only in the CDC specified high risk areas or if required by an establishment. Specifically, in a pod situation where everyone in the pod is vaccinated, I am shedding the mask (if I remember to take it off that is )

Since the mask (specially the newest very light weight KN95s I acquired) does not bother me that much, there are occasions where I forget to take it off too.

Actually I think quarantines are now a bigger issue for me, now that I am ready to travel, than masks. If masks, tests and vaccines together help remove the need for quarantines, more power to them.

The important thing is that the vaccines substantially reduce the chances of hospitalization and death, close to zero.

 

[MARC Rider]

Even if Covid just becomes a mild infection that doesn't lead to hospitalizations and who wants to be catching it while traveling? I've had enough trip where I've caught a bug in the middle of the trip and had to spend a few annoying days feeling like crud. Given how well the masks and social distancing have stopped the flu in its tracks this year, I think I'll wear my mask much more frequently, even after the covid-danger has passed.

 

[Barb Stout]

Even if Covid just becomes a mild infection that doesn't lead to hospitalizations and who wants to be catching it while traveling? I've had enough trip where I've caught a bug in the middle of the trip and had to spend a few annoying days feeling like crud. Given how well the masks and social distancing have stopped the flu in its tracks this year, I think I'll wear my mask much more frequently, even after the covid-danger has passed.

The vast majority of times that I have caught some respiratory infection has been while traveling by air. I will no longer feel like a pariah wearing a mask on the plane the next time I fly.

 

[jis]

I found this article to be incredibly sobering in that it gives a very good idea about how many of us with the best of intentions may be mistaken in our beliefs and actions in regard to this pandemic... Something to reflect on. And BTW it does not absolve the "experts" either, of their own sins, something I have been cautioning about since the early days of "fomite madness", "mask not necessary silliness" and "beach shaming". Everybody has made their own set of mistakes, and to err is human. The question is how good is one at reflecting upon self and taking corrective actions.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/how-public-health-messaging-backfired/618147/
And now we are entering the era of "mutant madness" and can't let "can't let your guard down anywhere parenthood" ...

Anyway, give it a read and see if it helps in re-establishing a semblance of balance in an admittedly wobbly and wonky world of the day.

 

[IndyLions]

The important thing is that the vaccines substantially reduce the chances of hospitalization and death, close to zero.

I think JIS's point is one which needs to be emphasized more. Covid is not going away - but as long as people get vaccinated - they may catch it but they aren't going to die from it.

During the pandemic - it's our responsibility not only to protect ourselves - but to protect others. That means taking personal precautions that minimize the risk for all. If we fail to take reasonable precautions and pass it to others - that's on us.

However - after vaccinations are fully rolled out that is no longer the case. If you choose to take a pass on the vaccination - and catch Covid from me (even though I've been vaccinated) - that's on you.

 

[west point]

The new Johnson and Johnson vaccine so far has prevented hospitalization and death of any vaccinate person that only got a mild case . The results for the other 2 US appear as good but maybe a few persons since so many more have received at least one dose. ? What is being missed in many state priorities is immune compromised person are more likely to throw off another variant.

 

[jis]

AFAICT all three vaccines with emergency authorization in the US have had zero hospitalization and death attributable to COVID or vaccine in the vaccinated group during the clinical trials. The mRNA vaccines with a single dose are indeed as good as the J&J but they went for a two dose regime because they were not quite sure how long a single dose's efficacy will last.

Turns out the observed results now are better than the worst they had feared. Yet, J&J is spinning up a two dose regime trial because they are not quite sure that the efficacy will last as long as they wish with the single dose.

At least theoretically both Moderna and BionTech (Pfizer) could have chosen to do their clinical trial with a single dose, and then we would have a one dose vaccine from them too. But being the new technology they were being more prudent than J&J with a more established Adenovector platform. They were probably pleasantly surprised with the single dose results and ecstatic with the two dose results.

Interestingly though the other Adenovector vaccines - Oxford (AstraZeneca) and Gemaleya (Sputnik V) have both chosen to stick with two doses, though the Brits and Chileans have decided to do the second dose of AstraZeneca 120 days after the first, instead of 21-28 days after the first while Indians are sticking with the original 21 days with Covishield, which is the Oxford vaccine manufactured in India by Serum Institute of India, Pune. They also delivering it to Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Brazil and a few other places.

 

[Hytec]

AFAICT all three vaccines with emergency authorization in the US have had zero hospitalization and death attributable to COVID or vaccine in the vaccinated group during the clinical trials. The mRNA vaccines with a single dose are indeed as good as the J&J but they went for a two dose regime because they were not quite sure how long a single dose's efficacy will last.

Turns out the observed results now are better than the worst they had feared. Yet, J&J is spinning up a two dose regime trial because they are not quite sure that the efficacy will last as long as they wish with the single dose.

At least theoretically both Moderna and BionTech (Pfizer) could have chosen to do their clinical trial with a single dose, and then we would have a one dose vaccine from them too. But being the new technology they were being more prudent than J&J with a more established Adenovector platform. They were probably pleasantly surprised with the single dose results and ecstatic with the two dose results.

Interestingly though the other Adenovector vaccines - Oxford (AstraZeneca) and Gemaleya (Sputnik V) have both chose to stick with two doses, though the Brits and Chileans have decided to do the second dose of AstraZeneca 120 days after the first, instead of 21-28 days after the first while Indians are sticking with the original 21 days with Covishield, which is the Oxford vaccine manufactured in India by Serum Institute of India, Pune. They also delivering it to Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Brazil and a few other places.

Thank you for a well researched analysis and resultant opinion.

 

[neroden]

AFAICT all three vaccines with emergency authorization in the US have had zero hospitalization and death attributable to COVID or vaccine in the vaccinated group during the clinical trials. The mRNA vaccines with a single dose are indeed as good as the J&J but they went for a two dose regime because they were not quite sure how long a single dose's efficacy will last.

Turns out the observed results now are better than the worst they had feared. Yet, J&J is spinning up a two dose regime trial because they are not quite sure that the efficacy will last as long as they wish with the single dose.

I'm hoping J&J on two doses is as good as the Moderna and Pfizer are. The reported results are not good enough for me with one dose, though obviously I'd get it if I had to go out for work.

The thing is, I'm not really as scared about hospitalization or death. If I die, I die. I'm more scared about (1) Long Covid and (2) long-term invisible organ damage which has been found at high rates in random samples of "recovered" Covid-19 cases. I have two friends with Long Covid, who officially had "mild" Covid cases in the initial months, but their lives were wrecked for well over a year, and they're now both somewhat crippled permanently. This is what I'm avoiding.

The Moderna & Pfizer vaccines have such super-high efficacy that they are probably preventing both.

The J&J one-dose vaccine? At this point the data is not there to tell me whether it is preventing Long Covid. And they haven't cat-scanned the 30% of patients with "mild" symptoms to see if they had invisible organ damage. Maybe the data will come in later, but it's not there yet.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

"Since scientists haven’t yet found evidence that the vaccines provide mucosal immunity, someone who is vaccinated and has no symptoms of illness may be carrying the live SARS-CoV-2 virus and spreading it to others when they cough, breath or sneeze."

The impact on subclinical transmission is currently unknown (or at least unpublished) but bubbles of vaccinated people should be able to meet in person without masks or fear of serious infection. Obviously there is still some level of risk but so long as news of my death does not read like a Darwin Award candidate I can "live" with the outcome.

As for the spread of the virus through fabrics, especially polyester, see the BBC link I posted elsewhere in this thread.

All I've seen are statements about about surface viability rather than probable infection from surface contact. To me that's a distinction with a difference. Washing hands and using a neck pillow should be enough to avoid problems. I don't think Amtrak needs a toilet in every compartment but if they did a better job of keeping public toilets clean and ventilated (especially in coach) then more passengers would be inclined to wash up on a regular basis.

Scientists do not know if life will ever return to normal. That's the reality our leaders aren't telling us.

Terms like "normal life" have more to do with social studies than science. Wearing a mask when sick or during cold and flu season has been normal in parts of Asia for many years now. If that became normal here it'd be a good thing.

 

[Dakota 400]

I'm hoping J&J on two doses is as good as the Moderna and Pfizer are. The reported results are not good enough for me with one dose,

If what I have read about the J&J's vaccine's one dose effectiveness is correct, it's more effective than the annual flu vaccines are.

The impact on subclinical transmission is currently unknown but bubbles of vaccinated people should be able to meet in person without masks or fear of serious infection. Obviously there is still some level of risk but so long as news of my death does not read like a Darwin Award candidate I can "live" with the outcome.

Well said. Most of my friends are of my age and all, as far as I know, are getting appointments to be vaccinated. Maybe my monthly brunch group of former colleagues will return sometime in 2021? (I know our small local restaurant would be most appreciative if it did.)

 

[Exvalley]

Maybe the states run by populist cretins will instead start to understand the science?

I don't think that it is as simple as you make it out to be.

Take Florida, for example. Florida has the second oldest population in the United States. And yet their per capita Covid death rate is just about smack dab in the middle at 145 per 100,000. Texas is also in the middle with 153.

Contrast that with one of the most locked-down states in the country, California. California, with its younger population, has a per capita death rate of 134. New York is much higher at 243. The four leading states for per-capita deaths are all blue states. Conversely, the two best performing states are blue states. However, Utah, a red state, is the third best.

We clearly cannot just label a state red or blue and predict how well they will do - which is why I hate wasting time doing that. I am much more interested in the real reasons for the differences.

 

[jis]

We clearly cannot just label a state red or blue and predict how well they will do - which is why I hate wasting time doing that. I am much more interested in the real reasons for the differences.

I agree with you. Part of the problem is that unless you factor in actual practice and other extraneous factors, some not very well known, it is very hard to tell what the net net outcome will be.

It is true that masks, distancing and not gathering in unventilated spaces helps. But unless one is able to get meaningful data on the proportion of people breaking those norms, and moreover what is the relative amount of breaking of those in a Governor mandated versus a non mandated regimen, it is hard to arrive at a well reasoned conclusion.

And this is completely leaving aside the vexing India question, which nobody seems to have any concrete explanation for.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/...-be-hitting-some-countries-harder-than-others

 

[Exvalley]

And this is completely leaving aside the vexing India question, which nobody seems to have any concrete explanation for.

In my un-scientific opinion, there seems to be a direct correlation between obesity (and associated comorbidities) and the per capita death rate. India and most developing nations have much lower obesity rates than the countries that have been hit the hardest.