Let’s remember that NTSB recommendations are just that: recommendations. They are often ignored (see: US auto industry, aerospace industry, etc).
As an engineer, I’m always curious about these things, and I’ve read through the entirety of Talgo’s response to the NTSB report, and I think their claims are valid, and well-supported:
https://dms.ntsb.gov/pubdms/search/document.cfm?docID=473025&docketID=62431&mkey=96496
Key takeaways:
1. Talgo maintains that the critical damage to the car containing passenger fatalities came from the concrete embankment, not from the projectile truck. At any rate, additional straps can be added to double the attach point strength. WSDOT should definitely do this.
2. Comparable crashes also had fatalities, truck separation, and car decoupling, yet the NTSB doesn’t cite this in any of those reports. Why not?
The closest comparative crash was the Philadelphia derailment, which had higher overall speed, but a lower actual speed to track speed ratio. This crash saw the complete destruction of one car, and overturning of most of the remaining cars, truck separation, etc.
The Metro-North crash was very comparable (82mph in a 30mph zone), but had the benefit of no adjacent large objects to impact. All of the cars overturned, the majority separated, and there were more fatalities. Why didn’t the NTSB cite the Metro North equipment and coupling systems as contributing to the crash? Talgo equipment would have better resisted overturning and decoupling.
3. Their analysis shows that the unique design of the Talgo equipment enabled most of the train to stay upright. Having a lower center of gravity, and with connections at both the top and bottom of the cars, the trainset really behaves as a system, and is hard to tip over (The Chambers Bay derailment illustrates this effect well). It also crumples as a system, with the end of each car crushing, instead of the lead car in the crash. Finally, their analysis also shows that had the locomotive not departed the tracks and pulled the lead cars down the embankment, the Talgo cars would have successfully negotiated the curve at 80mph.
It’s hard to guess what would have happened if traditional Amfleet or Superliner cars had been used on this trainset. I think we would have seen complete derailment of the entire train, with nearly all cars on their side or upside down. At least one would have likely hit the bridge sideways and been torn open like a can. Frankly, I think the Talgo set performed quite well given the energy involved in this crash. One of the coach carriages fell off of the bridge, landing upside down on I-5, and then was hit by a loaded tractor trailer at speed. No fatalities in that car. I couldn’t find a comparable crash anywhere for that scenario.
I think WSDOT should work with Talgo to retrofit the (4) series VI trainsets based on the recommendations in section 5 of the Talgo report. They then need to publicize this retrofit appropriately, so the traveling public has confidence in the safety of the Talgo equipment. I also think we should work to acquire the (2) ex-Wisconsin sets so that service levels can be increased when they move to the Dupont line.