Empire Builder Summer Blues Started Early this year

[JayPea]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="JayPea" data-cid="450984" data-time="1372265232"><p>Sleep???Heck no! I was up at quarter to three this AM, checking the Amtrak status maps first thing! :lol: And I'm not going to take a nap later! I don't want to take a chance on oversleeping and missing the train! :lol: As for light, about 4-4:30 it begins to lighten up, particularly if the idiots who misforecast our weather here are actually right, as it's supposed to be clear tomorrow morning. I'll keep checking the status maps. This is Amtrak we're talking about so plenty can happen in the next few hours but as I said before if the same pattern holds, I should get into Portland an hour to hour and a half late, plenty of time to peruse Powell's Bookstore and grab lunch at Jake's Famous Crawfish. I hope! I catch Cascades 516 to Seattle at 2:45 tomorrow afternoon (I think; they've changed the departure time so many times) but hopefully have plenty of time to do what I wanted to do in Portland first.</p></blockquote>

I just saw Powell's mentioned on FB. There was an HLAA convention in Portland this weekend & one of the ladies posted someone told her to check it out. It's getting positive reviews from her friends.

Turns out the EB was a couple of hours late into Portland. While I would have had time to go to Powell's after my lunch at Jake's (the two are just a block or so from each other) there wouldn't have been time for me to do Powell's justice. Besides, with all my electronic toys, batteries, cords, chargers, adapters, and power strips, not to mention clothes, I'd have had no room for books anyway. :lol:

I will be back in Portland in September so maybe will have time then.

 

[Rail Freak]

Looks like the 7/27 had one of it's better arrival times into Spokane, last night!

 

[D.P. Roberts]

Looks like the 7/27 had one of it's better arrival times into Spokane, last night!

It seems to be random. 7 was only 66 minutes into WFH on the 28th when I was on it. I say "only" because we still got to see all the scenery in Glacier during daylight hours. That's about the best it has been in weeks, so I consider myself lucky!

 

[D.P. Roberts]

So what happened to the westbound 7 tonight? It was running 2.5 hours late leaving GPK, and another 2.5 hours later it still hasn't arrived in Essex.

 

[montana mike]

#8 in ND this AM doesn't seem to be faring very well either--now over 3 hours late (having lost most of this time in the usual eastern ND places overnight--and this despite the fact that no construction is going on today along the hi-line. So much for our theory that on time performance would improve when the track work eases off. The EB arrivals had stayed just under 2 hours late in CHI for 4 days in a row (still poor, but a heck of a lot better than the previous several weeks). Looks like today's arrival will break this short string of reasonably late arrivals in CHI town--bummer.

 

[jebr]

#8 in ND this AM doesn't seem to be faring very well either--now over 3 hours late (having lost most of this time in the usual eastern ND places overnight--and this despite the fact that no construction is going on today along the hi-line. So much for our theory that on time performance would improve when the track work eases off. The EB arrivals had stayed just under 2 hours late in CHI for 4 days in a row (still poor, but a heck of a lot better than the previous several weeks). Looks like today's arrival will break this short string of reasonably late arrivals in CHI town--bummer.

Yikes. Here's hoping it's better by the Gathering!

 

[TraneMan]

#8 in ND this AM doesn't seem to be faring very well either--now over 3 hours late (having lost most of this time in the usual eastern ND places overnight--and this despite the fact that no construction is going on today along the hi-line. So much for our theory that on time performance would improve when the track work eases off. The EB arrivals had stayed just under 2 hours late in CHI for 4 days in a row (still poor, but a heck of a lot better than the previous several weeks). Looks like today's arrival will break this short string of reasonably late arrivals in CHI town--bummer.

Yikes. Here's hoping it's better by the Gathering!

By that time the summer works should be done.

 

[montana mike]

BNSF says "mid-October" completion dates for eastern MT track work, they have no firm completion date set yet for the ND work (delays in getting some of the items needed evidently), although this was supposed to be finished "late 2013" as well. #8 arrived in CHI town about 2 hours late today and #7 trekking thru western MT tonight is over 3 hours behind. C'est La Vie'

 

[crescent2]

Is something similar likely to happen next year and continue into October? It sounds like this year's work may be more than the usual routine summer maintenance. ??? Thanks-

 

[montana mike]

My BNSF guy here in MT says they are spending a very large amount of $$ to upgrade and improve tracks due to the increased energy train movements as well as more modest increases in intermodal trains as well. They are indeed spending more resources this summer and fall. But he pointed out this is part of a multi-year upgrade program, not just this year. Note: He said the projections of movements from ND and MT for energy related trains are "very substantial" and will make the hi-line a very busy route over the next several decades.

 

[yarrow]

He said the projections of movements from ND and MT for energy related trains are "very substantial" and will make the hi-line a very busy route over the next several decades.

i read that if you want to buy a new tank car the wait for delivery is 30 months

 

[Bob Dylan]

He said the projections of movements from ND and MT for energy related trains are "very substantial" and will make the hi-line a very busy route over the next several decades.

i read that if you want to buy a new tank car the wait for delivery is 30 months

There is a Tank Car Factory in East Texas besides the Tracks on the Texas Eagle Route between Marshall and Longview that fabricates these Cars and they seem to be extremely busy day and night! Good High Paying Jobs for Americans, this seems to be one type of Job that we haven't "Outsourced" to Third World Countries!

 

[montana mike]

BTW-I asked the BNSF engineer I know here locally if BNSF was considering adding more double track along the hi-line and he just chuckled. Too much cost he said (even though he admitted BNSF was making "a killing" on the energy boom (his words)). He pointed out the vast distances involved--the trip from SEA to MSP is over 1500 miles thru some challenging terrain. He said it would take "multiple years" of construction-after lengthy design and approval process. He did not deny this would be an "ideal" solution, but said no senior management at BNSF has stated this was their goal in any public forum recently.

I asked him if BNSF had discussed the increase in traffic on the hi-line with AMTRAK and whether AMTRAK might alter schedules at some point to reflect this and he said that was up to "the powers that be" and he personally believes that the traffic load will get to the point that AMTRAK will be forced to do something, since he saw only more and more traffic on this route.

I think we will just have to live with delays--sometimes relatively minor (1-2 hours), sometimes major (4-6 hours) and as they say in AMTRAK--enjoy the ride!! As long as I can make connections and/or enjoy an extra night on the town in CHI I guess things could be worse.

 

[jebr]

BTW-I asked the BNSF engineer I know here locally if BNSF was considering adding more double track along the hi-line and he just chuckled. Too much cost he said (even though he admitted BNSF was making "a killing" on the energy boom (his words)). He pointed out the vast distances involved--the trip from SEA to MSP is over 1500 miles thru some challenging terrain. He said it would take "multiple years" of construction-after lengthy design and approval process. He did not deny this would be an "ideal" solution, but said no senior management at BNSF has stated this was their goal in any public forum recently.I asked him if BNSF had discussed the increase in traffic on the hi-line with AMTRAK and whether AMTRAK might alter schedules at some point to reflect this and he said that was up to "the powers that be" and he personally believes that the traffic load will get to the point that AMTRAK will be forced to do something, since he saw only more and more traffic on this route.

I think we will just have to live with delays--sometimes relatively minor (1-2 hours), sometimes major (4-6 hours) and as they say in AMTRAK--enjoy the ride!! As long as I can make connections and/or enjoy an extra night on the town in CHI I guess things could be worse.

Still bad for Amtrak, though. No one likes a late train, and it'll just keep feeding the beast that says Amtrak is always late, don't rely on it if you need to get somewhere on time, etc.

Amtrak either needs to push BNSF to keep them on-time or find a way to make it happen, hopefully without adding too much more time to the schedule.

 

[montana mike]

I believe anyone in the Forum can see that on the "best" days now the EB will be 1-2 hours late into CHI, and the days of consistently being on time or early in SEA are likely over as well (3 hours late getting into SEA today for example). If the EB is going to be consistently late by this amount of time they should reflect this reality and amend the schedule to at least more accurately depict the length of the journey. Looking back it has been a long time since the EB was on time arriving into CHI, a long time. They know full well that the "summer" construction season, et. al. will be major factors in these delays and these factors are not "one off" events, but continuing almost daily. Perhaps they should have a summer and winter schedule? I know this means some connections will not be made, but how does that differ from the reality of the current situation, where people book the train expecting to make a connection, then they miss it almost all of the time. There is no easy answer to this challenge.........

 

[jebr]

I believe anyone in the Forum can see that on the "best" days now the EB will be 1-2 hours late into CHI, and the days of consistently being on time or early in SEA are likely over as well (3 hours late getting into SEA today for example). If the EB is going to be consistently late by this amount of time they should reflect this reality and amend the schedule to at least more accurately depict the length of the journey. Looking back it has been a long time since the EB was on time arriving into CHI, a long time. They know full well that the "summer" construction season, et. al. will be major factors in these delays and these factors are not "one off" events, but continuing almost daily. Perhaps they should have a summer and winter schedule? I know this means some connections will not be made, but how does that differ from the reality of the current situation, where people book the train expecting to make a connection, then they miss it almost all of the time. There is no easy answer to this challenge.........

The problem is that it's very difficult to shrink a schedule's padding (or run time in general) once it's been extended. Maybe just a service announcement saying that this train is running consistently late by x amount of time, here are your options, etc. Better to set expectations a bit lower than to have angry customers, in my opinion, since there's not much Amtrak can do.

 

[Ryan]

It's also difficult to negotiate new schedules. I think that we discussed that back on like page 5 or so...

 

[TraneMan]

I believe anyone in the Forum can see that on the "best" days now the EB will be 1-2 hours late into CHI, and the days of consistently being on time or early in SEA are likely over as well (3 hours late getting into SEA today for example). If the EB is going to be consistently late by this amount of time they should reflect this reality and amend the schedule to at least more accurately depict the length of the journey. Looking back it has been a long time since the EB was on time arriving into CHI, a long time. They know full well that the "summer" construction season, et. al. will be major factors in these delays and these factors are not "one off" events, but continuing almost daily. Perhaps they should have a summer and winter schedule? I know this means some connections will not be made, but how does that differ from the reality of the current situation, where people book the train expecting to make a connection, then they miss it almost all of the time. There is no easy answer to this challenge.........

The problem is that it's very difficult to shrink a schedule's padding (or run time in general) once it's been extended. Maybe just a service announcement saying that this train is running consistently late by x amount of time, here are your options, etc. Better to set expectations a bit lower than to have angry customers, in my opinion, since there's not much Amtrak can do.

Amtrak had this posted last summer for the Empire Builder about the major delays going on, and I think they did it the same thing the year before due to flooding.

 

[AlanB]

Not withstanding the recent court ruling, which may or may not stand on appeal; BNSF is going to run afoul of the PRIIA performance standards sooner, rather than later. And when that happens, they're going to have to deal with the problem and padding the schedule isn't going to be the answer.

Padding the schedule not only screws up connections, but it doesn't help anyhow. All it does is move the conflicts to new places, but the train will still be late. We learned this just over 10 years ago when Amtrak worked with CSX & UP to add 10 and 1/2 hours of padding to the full route of the Sunset Limited to help with the far worse delays that train was seeing at the time. The end result was that the delays actually got worse! Not better, but worse.

It wasn't until the economic slow down that reduced UP's traffic that things got to the point where Amtrak finally requested a new shorter schedule recently. Yes, things did improve a bit, a few years after the schedule change thanks to already declining freight volume and UP finally fixing their under-staffing issues.

But still, padding doesn't help. The train will still be late until & unless BNSF either reduces freight traffic or increases capacity on the road. And PRIIA will force their hand if they're not careful. Right now because of the work, they have an excuse. But that won't work forever.

 

[montana mike]

#8 lost over 3 hours on its trek thru ND last night! Nothing will change the cold hard facts that the construction is ongoing and the freight traffic is increasing. These are not one off events, but rather a system evolution. In my discussions with BNSF people here in MT they say that no amount of "priority routing effort" on the part of BNSF is going to put the EBs back on a footing where it is reasonably close to one time much of the time until the infrastructure that BNSF is working on is upgraded and of course the continuing increase in the energy related traffic either decreases (not at all likely) or other methods to move the petroleum are in the offing (also not likely, since no movement on the proposed pipeline is noted).

If the schedule can't be changed for whatever valid reasons, then the traveling public needs to know that arrivals along the route, and especially in CHI, which has implications for connections, will be effected and "buyer beware". I think it is disingenuous for Amtrak to sell connections for trains less than 2 hours after the "scheduled" arrival of the EB, when they know most of these connections will not be made.

 

[gmushial]

....
But still, padding doesn't help. The train will still be late until & unless BNSF either reduces freight traffic or increases capacity on the road. And PRIIA will force their hand if they're not careful. Right now because of the work, they have an excuse. But that won't work forever.

In some senses this is heartening, ie, with rail traffic up a) it means the economy is doing better and b) that with increased traffic, ie, revenue, there will be monies and motivation for the only answer that will really help: more double track/triple track.... and my guess is the EB route is probably one of the easier ones to add that capacity to [fewer tunnels, less population built right against the RR rightaways etc]... just a question of time before the obvious is executed - though have to imagine that the actual construction of new sets of rails will cause its own set of delays - but at least they'll only be temporary and after they're done will result in hopefully longterm fewer.

 

[gmushial]

#8 lost over 3 hours on its trek thru ND last night! Nothing will change the cold hard facts that the construction is ongoing and the freight traffic is increasing. These are not one off events, but rather a system evolution. In my discussions with BNSF people here in MT they say that no amount of "priority routing effort" on the part of BNSF is going to put the EBs back on a footing where it is reasonably close to one time much of the time until the infrastructure that BNSF is working on is upgraded and of course the continuing increase in the energy related traffic either decreases (not at all likely) or other methods to move the petroleum are in the offing (also not likely, since no movement on the proposed pipeline is noted). If the schedule can't be changed for whatever valid reasons, then the traveling public needs to know that arrivals along the route, and especially in CHI, which has implications for connections, will be effected and "buyer beware". I think it is disingenuous for Amtrak to sell connections for trains less than 2 hours after the "scheduled" arrival of the EB, when they know most of these connections will not be made.

Agreed. But I wonder what the resistance is to simply updating the published schedules to reflect reality - take a good statistical sample of actual arrival times, find a value/time that is a half sigma, maybe even a full sigma over the mean, and publish that. Imagine the difference in customer satisfaction when more than half the EB trains arrive 10, 20, 30 minutes "early" vs the current almost always late and the ensuing missed connections. Also, in this day of the internet, the cost of "publishing" is quite low, ie, the number of dead-tree schedules that might have to be recycled because of changes, could be very very small... personally the only Amtrak schedules I've seen, were printed on my laser printer.

 

[PRR 60]

Not withstanding the recent court ruling, which may or may not stand on appeal; BNSF is going to run afoul of the PRIIA performance standards sooner, rather than later. And when that happens, they're going to have to deal with the problem and padding the schedule isn't going to be the answer.
Padding the schedule not only screws up connections, but it doesn't help anyhow. All it does is move the conflicts to new places, but the train will still be late. We learned this just over 10 years ago when Amtrak worked with CSX & UP to add 10 and 1/2 hours of padding to the full route of the Sunset Limited to help with the far worse delays that train was seeing at the time. The end result was that the delays actually got worse! Not better, but worse.

It wasn't until the economic slow down that reduced UP's traffic that things got to the point where Amtrak finally requested a new shorter schedule recently. Yes, things did improve a bit, a few years after the schedule change thanks to already declining freight volume and UP finally fixing their under-staffing issues.

But still, padding doesn't help. The train will still be late until & unless BNSF either reduces freight traffic or increases capacity on the road. And PRIIA will force their hand if they're not careful. Right now because of the work, they have an excuse. But that won't work forever.

Alan. The Circuit Court ruling threw out the performance standards of PRIIA. They are gone. I would not count on a successful appeal and reversal since the Supreme Court typically does not hear appeals of cases decided unanimously by the Circuit Court. The only way for specific performance standards to be enforced is if a new law is passed that allows FRA to set the standards without Amtrak veto power.

So, right now, there are no specific performance standards in the law. Amtrak's only enforcement avenue is civil action based on the "preferential treatment" requirement in the Amtrak law, and that standard can be pretty tough to legally define.

 

[montana mike]

Currently on the east bound #8 in MT--on time out of GNP. I see the #8 just coming into MSP this AM is 3 hours behind. Hopefully our train will have better luck thru the construction areas tonight.

Now thru Glasgow--and as has been the case for the past several weeks BNSF has slowed the EB down to 25 mph along most of the stretch between Glasgow and Wolf Point. We have gone from on time to about 20 minutes late (still not bad). No actual construction being done this Sunday, just a lot of new ties along side of the tracks.

 

[montana mike]

Crawling at about 20 mph behind a freight in eastern MT. The conductor says BOTH ongoing construction slow orders and very heavy freight traffic will cause us to lose considerable time (he didn't specify how much) between now and MN.