Fare Buckets - and when do they increase/decrease?

[D E K E R]

Hi all,

Apologies if this is the incorrect forum for this post (mods, feel free to move to the right spot).

I'm looking at a trip on the Lake Shore Limited towards the end of 2023. I found a great graphic elsewhere on this site listing out all of the potential fare buckets for long distance routes. I see the trip I'm looking at is currently priced at the highest rate.

My question is - when does this fare start to drop, if at all? Or is my date just so popular that they have already gone through all the cheaper buckets? Or, is there something that says it'll start to decrease say 2-3 months prior to departure?

What about point redemptions? Do those also decrease based on the fare bucket? I hope all of the above makes sense, if not, I'm happy to clarify as best as I can.


Thanks in advance for any assistance.

 

[zephyr17]

The points values are based on cash fares and will increase or decrease with them.

Inventory is reallocated between buckets when Amtrak yield managers review sales and projections and decide how things are going and whether they need to adjust the mix to maximize revenue. That actually can happen at any time, but appears to happen most frequently between 4 and 6/7 months before departure. Note that the evidence for that practice is anecdotal and does not have hard statistics behind supporting it. And Amtrak considers its yield management practices to be confidential, so they can only be deduced. Nevertheless it appears to hold in my experience. For example, my return from New York last November, both the LSL and EB roomettes were at high buckets. Since there were at least 8 roomettes available on both trains, I suspected they would reallocate some roomette inventory to lower buckets at some point. Lo and behold, at 5 months before departure, almost to the day, the LSL had low bucket roomettes available and the EB had second lowest. I immediately purchased my ticket.

What I do is check fares early, like 10 or 11 months out to get a baseline and check the off chance they allocated some fares in low buckets right out of the gate (they haven't been doing that the last few years, in my experience but it is possible). Then I'll check back sporadically, just to see. At a bit more than 6 months out, I'll start checking systematically, daily or close to it. Amtrak seldom allocates more than one or two accommodations of any category to the lowest open bucket, so I want to be able to grab one quickly should a low(er) bucket appear. So I recommend checking no less often than weekly once you are in the window.

A couple other things to note.
1. The inventory allocations can and do vary day to day, departure to departure. Try to be flexible, and have a target travel window, not a specific day. Then grab a lower bucket when one appears in your travel time frame.
2. Don't hold out for lowest bucket. They don't usually do not allocate anything to lowest bucket. When they do, it is usually on only really weak demand days in low demand periods. Grab it when it drops, don't wait hoping it will drop yet again. Personally, I'll take anything up to middle bucket.
3. Amtrak limits the number of "dummy" reservation attempts you can perform at one time. It seems to be about 10 or so. After you hit it, they'll start returning a generic error message. It also appears to IP address linked, not to a specific device, so using different devices on the same network doesn't get around it. The lockout takes about a day to clear in my experience. Needless to say, don't log in when doing research using dummy reservations. So you have to be a bit strategic in using your dummy reservation attempts in researching fares and inventory.

 

[Sidney]

The points values are based on cash fares and will increase or decrease with them.

Inventory is reallocated between buckets when Amtrak yield managers review sales and projections and decide how things are going and whether they need to adjust the mix to maximize revenue. That actually can happen at any time, but appears to happen most frequently between 4 and 6/7 months before departure. Note that the evidence for that practice is anecdotal and does not have hard statistics behind supporting it. And Amtrak considers its yield management practices to be confidential, so they can only be deduced. Nevertheless it appears to hold in my experience. For example, my return from New York last November, both the LSL and EB roomettes were at high buckets. Since there were at least 8 roomettes available on both trains, I suspected they would reallocate some roomette inventory to lower buckets at some point. Lo and behold, at 5 months before departure, almost to the day, the LSL had low bucket roomettes available and the EB had second lowest. I immediately purchased my ticket.

What I do is check fares early, like 10 or 11 months out to get a baseline and check the off chance they allocated some fares in low buckets right out of the gate (they haven't been doing that the last few years, in my experience but it is possible). Then I'll check back sporadically, just to see. At a bit more than 6 months out, I'll start checking systematically, daily or close to it. Amtrak seldom allocates more than one or two accommodations of any category to the lowest open bucket, so I want to be able to grab one quickly should a low(er) bucket appear. So I recommend checking no less often than weekly once you are in the window.

A couple other things to note.
1. The inventory allocations can and do vary day to day, departure to departure. Try to be flexible, and have a target travel window, not a specific day. Then grab a lower bucket when one appears in your travel time frame.
2. Don't hold out for lowest bucket. They don't usually do not allocate anything to lowest bucket. When they do, it is usually on only really weak demand days in low demand periods. Grab it when it drops, don't wait hoping it will drop yet again. Personally, I'll take anything up to middle bucket.
3. Amtrak limits the number of "dummy" reservation attempts you can perform at one time. It seems to be about 10 or so. After you hit it, they'll start returning a generic error message. It also appears to IP address linked, not to a specific device, so using different devices on the same network doesn't get around it. The lockout takes about a day to clear in my experience. Needless to say, don't log in when doing research using dummy reservations. So you have to be a bit strategic in using your dummy reservation attempts in researching fares and inventory.

In my nearly a hundred trips in roomettes I’ve never paid more than low bucket. Of course these fares are getting harder

 

[joelkfla]

Since there were at least 8 roomettes available on both trains

How did you determine that?

3. Amtrak limits the number of "dummy" reservation attempts you can perform at one time. It seems to be about 10 or so. After you hit it, they'll start returning a generic error message. It also appears to IP address linked, not to a specific device, so using different devices on the same network doesn't get around it. The lockout takes about a day to clear in my experience. Needless to say, don't log in when doing research using dummy reservations. So you have to be a bit strategic in using your dummy reservation attempts in researching fares and inventory.

Recently, I was able to gain more attempts by switching browsers. I started on Firefox, then switched to Chrome when the errors came, and then to Edge (this was on a laptop.) By repeatedly rotating between the 3, I was able to continue my search pretty much uninterrupted. I logged out and closed the tab on Firefox or completely exited the browser on the other 2; I don't know whether that made a difference, but it seemed like a good idea.

It also seems to me that the lockout is on a rolling clock, and it resets completely after a few hours, not a full day. But after a shorter time (maybe 30 minutes, I don't remember exactly), I was allowed a few more attempts on the same browser, but not as many as the first time.

 

[Sidney]

…to find. You have to be extremely flexible and check constantly. That $1100 roomette might be $600 the next day. Pardon the interruption. I m on the first Adirondack going North in over three years. Just passed the Port Henry station. There was a huge crowd with banners welcoming the train back. Surprising it’s only 40% filled.

 

[zephyr17]

How did you determine that?

You can do up 8 passengers on one reservation. Make a dummy reservation with 8 passengers in 8 roomettes and see if they come up. It's useful for checking how much inventory is actually open. It's also useful for checking how many are in a lower bucket if there's one open. It's been awhile since I tried it, but I think I recall that if you exceed the inventory in a given bucket, it'll price all rooms into the next higher open bucket, not split them.

In my case, I know that there are about 17 roomettes total available for sale on the Seattle section of the Empire Builder (13 in the 30 plus an estimate of 4 for revenue sale in the transdorm). 8 is a pretty big percentage of available space. On the New York section of the Lake Shore there should be around 18, 12 in 11 (V I), 10 in the 12 (V II, minus one for the washrooms and one for linen storage) for 22, minus 4 for the LSA and the attendants. Again, 8 represents a pretty hefty percentage of available space.

That's a good tip on rotating browsers. I'll give that a shot. I think I tried again once after three hours and got a couple more, then it locked again. After that I took to just waiting until the next day because I did not want to continually reset the clock.

 

[zephyr17]

In my nearly a hundred trips in roomettes I’ve never paid more than low bucket. Of course these fares are getting harder

Some of those hundred trips almost had to have been before the current yield management regimen was implemented and booking really early usually resulted in a low bucket. Now you both have to monitor regularly watching for inventory reallocation and be flexible on dates to get the lowest fares, as you point out on your other post.

For me, I am usually happy with the lowest and second lowest buckets. I'll reluctantly take a middle if it really looks that is as good as it will get. I flatly will not book in the top two. Mostly because, as much as I enjoy rail travel, even I have a limit. A small bit is I don't want be part of the demand equation that shows they can get those fares.

 

[D E K E R]

Great info, I appreciate everyone jumping in and providing input.

The trip I am looking at is a little over 6 months out, so I'll wait a few weeks and then start trying again. I'll be much more diligent as it gets closer to the 5 month mark.

Currently it is at the highest fare bucket and I am hoping to get to the lowest one and grab it fast.

Thanks again for all of the assistance.


Edit: this is the fare bucket chart I am going by: Long Distance Train Coach & Sleeper Fares (Buckets)

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Most of your leverage as a passenger is choosing where you want to go and when you want to get there. If you lock yourself into a single trip and travel window the only remaining leverage is when you book, which is mostly just guessing how a price you can't control might change in the future. I've had roughly equal luck in prices going up or down in line with expectations for any individual trip. If finding a good deal is important one method I've used is to make a list of desirable locations and available travel dates and see which combinations offer the best value. It's not always possible to travel this way but I've managed to save many thousands by being flexible with dates and locations.

 

[TinCan782]

What about point redemptions? Do those also decrease based on the fare bucket? I hope all of the above makes sense, if not, I'm happy to clarify as best as I can.

Since points are directly tied to the dollar amount of the ticket, then yes, the points redemption will fluctuate along with the dollar amount.

 

[D E K E R]

Most of your leverage as a passenger is choosing where you want to go and when you want to get there. If you lock yourself into a single trip and travel window the only remaining leverage is when you book, which is mostly just guessing how a price you can't control might change in the future. I've had roughly equal luck in prices going up or down in line with expectations for any individual trip. If finding a good deal is important one method I've used is to make a list of desirable locations and available travel dates and see which combinations offer the best value. It's not always possible to travel this way but I've managed to save many thousands by being flexible with dates and locations.

That's a good point. I do have a slight bit of flexibility on my dates, so I'll compare and contrast the fares for each of the nearby dates as well as it get closer to the travel date. Thanks.

 

[zephyr17]

---

Great info, I appreciate everyone jumping in and providing input.

The trip I am looking at is a little over 6 months out, so I'll wait a few weeks and then start trying again. I'll be much more diligent as it gets closer to the 5 month mark.

Currently it is at the highest fare bucket and I am hoping to get to the lowest one and grab it fast.

Thanks again for all of the assistance.


Edit: this is the fare bucket chart I am going by: Long Distance Train Coach & Sleeper Fares (Buckets)

I'd really start checking regularly and systematically sooner than that (like at the 6 month mark, not 5).

Don't hold out for lowest bucket. Grab it on the drop, it might go lower, but chances aren't great. And if you decide to wait and see if there's another drop, you are running the chance that the couple of rooms allocated to a lower bucket will get grabbed and you'll just be in higher buckets again. They really don't allocate inventory to low bucket on anything but travel days with very weak demand.

If you are flexible in your travel days, check other days that work, especially after you see a drop. As part of the review they seem to pay more attention to day to day variations than initially, where they just seem to shove everything into the same buckets for weeks at a time. So after you see a drop, shop around, you might find a low bucket within a few days of your target date.

 

[MarkInAustin]

In January I bought a July Starlight roomette LAX to SLO for 2 seniors for 8556 points. That same ticket today would cost 9763 points. I try to buy six months out. I check periodically for lower prices and occasionally find them and switch. It seems the six months out price on the Eagle/Sunset is a good one, anecdotally. The July '23 trip is our first on the Starlight.

In 11/21 we were able to add a second roomette Chicago to Austin for next to nothing, day of the trip. This can happen, too. Neither of us had to sleep above and the roomettes were across from each other.

 

[niemi24s]

As the guy who puts together those fare bucket charts you linked in Post #8 (and after untold thousands of laborious dummy bookings to find what fares were offered) here's my conclusion about when to find the lowest fares. . . .

With Amtrak, you can't always sometimes tell what you least expect to happen the most.

That's my theory and I'm stickin' to it! Everybody here has their own pet theory based on anecdotal findings, so I'll offer my own story for your consideration concerning my LSL trip on 10 Mar 2023:

• Booked the next-to-lowest bucket on 16 Jan.
• Checked every day (or maybe every few days) for a drop to the lowest bucket
• Fare dropped to lowest bucket on 15 Feb
• Called AGR that same day and was cheerfully refunded the $90 difference.

As you can see from the latest bucket chart, low bucket fares for Roomettes had always been found. However, some low bucket fares for Bedrooms and Family Bedrooms have never been found!

 

[AmtrakFlyer]

At least on the SWC when I’ve looked which is weekly it’s all high bucket fares from Galesburg to LAX. For the price of a one way family bedroom, all 4 of us can fly RT to Ohare to Cancun stay on the beach at an all inclusive with airport transfers for 3-4 nights and still have 400 dollars extra to spend.

I’m all for yield management to keep the system afloat but when the default one way fare is over $2000, 28 out of 31 days a month the system needs to be tweaked. It’s ludicrous they don’t offer a low fare calendar and almost criminal they knock you off the website if you search too many dates. I shouldn’t have to switch browsers to look for the best fare offered.

 

[zephyr17]

At least on the SWC when I’ve looked which is weekly it’s all high bucket fares from Galesburg to LAX. For the price of a one way family bedroom, all 4 of us can fly RT to Ohare to Cancun stay on the beach at an all inclusive with airport transfers for 3-4 nights and still have 400 dollars extra to spend.

I’m all for yield management to keep the system afloat but when the default one way fare is over $2000, 28 out of 31 days a month the system needs to be tweaked. It’s ludicrous they don’t offer a low fare calendar and almost criminal they knock you off the website if you search too many dates. I shouldn’t have to switch browsers to look for the best fare offered.

Completely agree about the low fare calendar and kicking you off for researching fares.

However, I feel I have to point out that there's only ONE Family Room on each departure with what I understand is the SW Chief's current consist (one regular sleeper, one transdorm). So high bucket most of the time is understandable. It is a scarce resource. Demand + scarcity=$$$.

As opposed to one, there ought to be at least 17 revenue roomettes for sale (possibly more, I am basing that on 4 available in the transdorm that used to be common practice) in that consist. Still not enough, but enough to have more of a chance at some of those 17 being allocated to lower buckets than the sole Family Room.

A partial solution is to get the laid up sleepers back on the road and back to pre-COVID full consists. But even then there were only two Family Rooms on each train. The real solution is to increase supply to better meet demand, but that's a long way off, if ever.

Unfortunately, the other options of equivalent cost that you or any other individual may choose to spend that kind of money on is really quite immaterial. You are free to make your choice as the value proposition does work out for you (it wouldn't for me, either). If one person decides to book at that fare, it makes perfect sense for Amtrak, because all it takes is one. The cost of a trip to Cancun does not make the slightest difference. If 9,999 people choose Cancun and 1 choses that sole Family Room, it is rationally priced.

If they are actually selling that single Family Room at that price on all or nearly all departures, there is only one tweak that makes sense. Raise the price still further. Be careful of what you wish for, you might get it.

 

[Amtrakfflyer]

I agree 100 percent we are free to spend our money anywhere we want. Where I think this will hurt Amtrak is long run, one and done passengers. The value/enjoyment factor isn’t there for repeat ridership. When the family room was $800 we did the trip 3 times a year consistently. Now it’s once a year at most. I know theres only one family room and it’s not sold out as much as people think. It will probably go out empty 4 times next week from CHI to LAX, keep it mind this is Easter week and still some spring breaks in the Midwest. I looked on the website and it’s $2324 one way for the 4 days it’s open next week. I say it will probably go out empty since families (and really anyone doing a long distance trip) need time to plan, a spur of the moment trip like that for us needs at least a weeks notice if not more. If they lowered the price 2 weeks out you might have some takers. TEMPO people in TX did exactly that. The other issue with only one room on the train is the 3 days it’s actually reserved next week it might only be reserved for short hops such as CHI to KC or ABQ to LAX at a lot lower fare. Either way Amtrak is leaving revenue on the table.

Another way it hurts Amtrak is a first time potentail customer goes on the website and looks at the high fares and says WOW and never thinks about Amtrak as a travel option again. I hope extra capacity helps but I think it’s more of a management mindset than capacity issue. Time will tell.

 

[niemi24s]

Spent a few minutes looking for the new increased fares on the EB to find that there are now 7 individual buckets offered (instead of the customary 5) for Bedrooms and the high bucket has increased 42% from $2376 to $3375 (on 18 April for travel from SEA to CHI). Tried to check this one a third time, but Arrow stymied the effort. Will try later.

FWIW, I've now found a total of 6 Roomette buckets. If there's an unfound bucket it's probably the high bucket which should be around $1273 for a 19% increase. [Edit: just found it - $1277}

Here's that #3375 Bedroom fare:

Sorta brings a tear to the eye, don't it?

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Where I think this will hurt Amtrak is long run, one and done passengers. The value/enjoyment factor isn’t there for repeat ridership. When the family room was $800 we did the trip 3 times a year consistently. Now it’s once a year at most.

Amtrak's plan seems to be (1) remove cars and shorten trains, (2) publish remaining bedrooms at insane prices for eleven months, and then (3) dump everything into a deep discount bidding system 48 hours before departure. Seems like a money loser to me but what do I know.

 

[zetharion]

A bedroom on an Amtrak train will never be worth $3400. I was lucky I guess and when I booked my DC trip from Dallas to DC that leaves Monday I got both the Eagle and Cardinal in a roomette at low bucket. I did a circle trip last October Eagle DAL to CHI, CHI to EMY on the Zephyr down to LAX on the Coast Starlight and the Eagle LAX back to DAL. All trains I got a roomette at low bucket. Booking 6 months to a year out paid off I guess. Im not sure I can stomach the price gouging going on right now for microwaved meals. April 23rd may be my last Amtrak trip after only 9 total trips due to stratospheric costs nowadays.

 

[Amtrakfflyer]

Spent a few minutes looking for the new increased fares on the EB to find that there are now 7 individual buckets offered (instead of the customary 5) for Bedrooms and the high bucket has increased 42% from $2376 to $3375 (on 18 April for travel from SEA to CHI). Tried to check this one a third time, but Arrow stymied the effort. Will try later.

FWIW, I've now found a total of 6 Roomette buckets. If there's an unfound bucket it's probably the high bucket which should be around $1273 for a 19% increase. [Edit: just found it - $1277}

Here's that #3375 Bedroom fare:
View attachment 31924
Sorta brings a tear to the eye, don't it?

Especially since they are going back to old verbiage of “First class”, sure traditional dining is “great” on the trains that actually have it but overall there’s nothing first class about Amtrak long distance travel. “Sleeper” more accurately describes it. I don’t think any Superliner sleepers have even been “refreshed“ yet. This thread on fare buckets is really eye opening on so many levels. There’s so many huge disconnects.

 

[BowlerMan3]

A bedroom on an Amtrak train will never be worth $3400. I was lucky I guess and when I booked my DC trip from Dallas to DC that leaves Monday I got both the Eagle and Cardinal in a roomette at low bucket. I did a circle trip last October Eagle DAL to CHI, CHI to EMY on the Zephyr down to LAX on the Coast Starlight and the Eagle LAX back to DAL. All trains I got a roomette at low bucket. Booking 6 months to a year out paid off I guess. Im not sure I can stomach the price gouging going on right now for microwaved meals. April 23rd may be my last Amtrak trip after only 9 total trips due to stratospheric costs nowadays.

if you book way in advane like 10 months you can get a roommate for around $800 to $900 otherwise if they roommates are over $1000 you can wait for an Amtrak Sale and usually you will save money for that but not always.

 

[lrh442]

Spent a few minutes looking for the new increased fares on the EB to find that there are now 7 individual buckets offered (instead of the customary 5) for Bedrooms and the high bucket has increased 42% from $2376 to $3375 (on 18 April for travel from SEA to CHI). Tried to check this one a third time, but Arrow stymied the effort. Will try later.

FWIW, I've now found a total of 6 Roomette buckets. If there's an unfound bucket it's probably the high bucket which should be around $1273 for a 19% increase. [Edit: just found it - $1277}

Here's that #3375 Bedroom fare:
View attachment 31924
Sorta brings a tear to the eye, don't it?

Fares this high reinforce the damaging narrative that Amtrak sleeper service isn't real transportation for real people. We can passionately argue that sleeper service should be a real transportation option for regular people, but Amtrak's pricing undercuts that notion.

If Amtrak management is wise they will take seriously the mandate to maximize the service they provide rather than blindly maximizing revenue/minimizing subsidy. So long as Amtrak relies on a public subsidy (which it always will) these sky-high fares are fool's gold for Amtrak.

 

[zephyr17]

Fares this high reinforce the damaging narrative that Amtrak sleeper service isn't real transportation for real people. We can passionately argue that sleeper service should be a real transportation option for regular people, but Amtrak's pricing undercuts that notion.

If Amtrak management is wise they will take seriously the mandate to maximize the service they provide rather than blindly maximizing revenue/minimizing subsidy. So long as Amtrak relies on a public subsidy (which it always will) these sky-high fares are fool's gold for Amtrak.

Since the supply of sleeping accommodations is very limited and inadequate to demand, and that situation is likely to persist for a long time yet, how do you propose to ration the supply if not by price? Lottery? First in gets the artificially cheap sleeper accommodations? Push the button at the second they're released for sale like Ticketmaster? Allocate priority to frequent sleeper travelers (which would likely benefit most here)?

The only solution is to expand the supply, which is a win-win, both lower fares for passengers and more revenue for Amtrak. But that is years, if not decades, away. If ever.

I agree that sleepers currently are not a good value proposition. I also agree that the combination of extremely high fares, that would ordinarily signal a luxury product, and service that pretty much ranges from mediocre to outright terrible, probably drives off many first time riders. However, as long there are enough people willing to pay those fares for that service to consume that highly limited supply, those issues do not matter.

I propose that Amtrak do just two things for the short term that are within its means and scope of control.
1. Get the entire fleet roadworthy. Get all cars that were mothballed during COVID inspected, repaired where necessary, and back on the road. Get back to full pre-COVID consists. That would mitigate the supply constraints, a little anyway.
2. Initiate a concerted and sustained effort to improve onboard service and ensure consistency. Stop the egregious and arbitrary practices of current "free range" crew culture, such as homesteading most or all cafe tables, restricting sleeper passengers to their rooms (as has been reported on the Crescent and Eagle), not adhering to published open hours (3 hour long meal breaks for the cafe LSA? Closing service at 9:30? I've personally seen both), SCAs gone entirely MIA, etc, etc, etc. While they're at it restore lounge amenities to all trains.

 

[Sidney]

if you book way in advane like 10 months you can get a roommate for around $800 to $900 otherwise if they roommates are over $1000 you can wait for an Amtrak Sale and usually you will save money for that but not always.

Booking way in advance, 9 to 11 months out will get you the higher buckets. They will lower as the date gets closer if they aren’t booked. There are hardly any sales on sleepers. People will pay the outrageous prices and Amtrak will continue to charge them. $2000 plus for bedrooms from Chicago to Seattle,Emeryville and LA. Over $700 on the Lake Shore from Chi to NY in a roomette,and flex food to boot, No thanks.