jis
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I must admit that I don't have any working theory on the dynamics of this thing. The front power head and several cars are separated from each other, but in line in order they originally were in the train, sitting in a ditch a ways beyond the bridge. The rear of the train seems to have piled on upon itself with one car having jumped up and landed upright on the road more than 10' above the RoW and reportedly some 40' removed from it!When looking at this thing, remember that it did not hit this wall square on. It hit a glancing blow as was sliding along it. That makes it difficult to understand the extent of the damage. One posibility is that the power unit plowed into the ballast making it slow much faster greatly increasing the impact of the following lightly built cars. Even with that the damage seems excessive and the death toll all but unbelievable. Another factor is ballasted track itself makes the plowing in of equipment possible which concrete slab does not. Look at the two Shinkansen design trains that derailed in earthquakes on concrete slab track. Both slid to a stop on the concrete, stayed more or less in line and everyone walked off with nothing more than bumps and bruises despite derailing at over 100 mph in both cases.
The power heads are both quite intact. Keep in mind that the cars immediately adjacent to the two power heads have an MTU diesel unit mounted in them to provide power for the train in non electrified territory. This might have played a significant role in that I seem to see the car immediately behind the lead power head is the one that appears to derail first. I suspect the dynamics folks in the safety board will be asking some serious questions about the weight distribution and relative buff strengths of individual units. Sort of the same concerns that you mention in your message George.
I like your characterization of a string of tin cans between a pair of bricks.
Incidentally FRA's new regulation adds energy management to the equation. I am not sure how much it reduces buff strength. But I am sure it does not reduce it below that required by TGVs which is in the range of 800klb the last I heard, which is the similar to that required for Tier 1 equipment in the US. The whole kerfuffle re FRA had to do more with the unrealistic requirements for Tier II, is what I understood. However, I could have understood wrong.