How will TS Elsa affect the Silvers this week?

[pennyk]

I have a reservation northbound for this Friday and am concerned that my trip may be canceled by Amtrak.

Does anyone know at what wind speed CSX will remove crossing gates and cause Amtrak to cancel trains? Also, does anyone know how soon those crossing gates will be replaced in order to resume service?

At this point, it appears that the storm will skirt the west coast of Florida and cross over and possibly travel north near I-95. The last map I saw, predicted the storm would cross north Florida with 60 mph winds.

Thanks.

 

[jis]

You are looking at the wrong map

This is the one you should look at:


Outside of the colored area, wind speeds will be less that 58mph, and even in the colored area, the colors represent probability with all shades of Green less than 30% chance.

Of course given that it is CSX, anything is possible. In reality I think there is an outside chance that Tampa might be skipped Tuesday and Wednesday. Beyond that I don't see any reason to cancel anything, but of course we'll see. The amount of rain may be a factor in how many trees topple over too as the ground at present is pretty saturated. Here is the rain projections through Wednesday:



I suspect things should be quite clear by Friday. But of course only time will tell.

 

[enviro5609]

I’m worried about the Crescent as well, I’m taking it from New Orleans to New York on the 7th.

I think it really just depends on the wind speed? I haven’t been able to find much info online anywhere about what could happen and when/why.

 

[Dakota 400]

The projections don't look good for Miami and the rescue/recovery efforts at Surfside.

 

[pennyk]

You are looking at the wrong map

This is the one you should look at:
View attachment 23437

Outside of the colored area, wind speeds will be less that 58mph, and even in the colored area, the colors represent probability with all shades of Green less than 30% chance.

Of course given that it is CSX, anything is possible. In reality I think there is an outside chance that Tampa might be skipped Tuesday and Wednesday. Beyond that I don't see any reason to cancel anything, but of course we'll see. The amount of rain may be a factor in how many trees topple over too as the ground at present is pretty saturated. Here is the rain projections through Wednesday:

View attachment 23438

I suspect things should be quite clear by Friday. But of course only time will tell.

Thanks. Somehow I knew you would know the answer. Hurricanes and CSX are both difficult to predict.

 

[pennyk]

The projections don't look good for Miami and the rescue/recovery efforts at Surfside.

I believe for that reason, they plan to take down the standing half of the Tower either today or early tomorrow.

 

[jis]

I’m worried about the Crescent as well, I’m taking it from New Orleans to New York on the 7th.

I think it really just depends on the wind speed? I haven’t been able to find much info online anywhere about what could happen and when/why.

Do none of you ever look at the National Hurricane Center website? Where are you exactly looking for information and not finding it? New Orleans has nothing to do with this storm.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

[AmtrakBlue]

Do none of you ever look at the National Hurricane Center website? Where are you exactly looking for information and not finding it? New Orleans has nothing to do with this storm.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

No, but the east coast might…

 

[pennyk]

Do none of you ever look at the National Hurricane Center website? Where are you exactly looking for information and not finding it?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

apparently I do not look at the National Hurricane Center website. I look at local and national news and text people who are much smarter than I am.

 

[enviro5609]

Yes, I did check the NHC. I know how to Google. You don’t have to be rude. I have read all the forecasts, and have been following the models.

What’s not available from NOAA is how a tropical storm will affect rail service. When tropical coast winds may impact anywhere from Atlanta up the Carolinas? That could impact Crescent service. I don’t know if it could, but I figured people here might know.

Which is why I asked.

 

[Carolina2001]

I have the same question as I am on a silver headed south to ft Lauderdale on Tuesday. I’ll be on Silver headed north as well on Friday. My first ever train trip and I have to deal with tropical weather. . But it is what it is.

 

[McIntyre2K7]

I'm not 100% accurate here but I remember the last 2-3 tropical storms/hurricanes that we have had threaten Florida made Amtrak Start/End the Silver Service routes in Jacksonville. Looking at the timetable above I can see the trains leaving today will probably be the last ones that make it to Miami before the weather gets bad.

 

[pennyk]

I have the same question as I am on a silver headed south to ft Lauderdale on Tuesday. I’ll be on Silver headed north as well on Friday. My first ever train trip and I have to deal with tropical weather. . But it is what it is.

I will send you a PM

 

[jis]

No, but the east coast might…

On Thursday they might be affected in the Carolinas and Virginia though at present it is projected to be a 35mph storm up there, which is more like a run of the mill heavy thunderstorm front.

 

[jis]

Yes, I did check the NHC. I know how to Google. You don’t have to be rude. I have read all the forecasts, and have been following the models.

What’s not available from NOAA is how a tropical storm will affect rail service. When tropical coast winds may impact anywhere from Atlanta up the Carolinas? That could impact Crescent service. I don’t know if it could, but I figured people here might know.

Which is why I asked.

It is much harder to predict what Amtrak and NS put together will do than what the weather may be like, admittedly.

I am sorry to have upset you. It was entirely unintentional. I would like to apologize for the same.

Anyhow, you will get into Atlanta Wednesday night and through SC Wed night into Thursday morning. By Wednesday evening it will allegedly be a 35mph storm and you will be on the extreme west edge or just outside its projected wind field. So if nothing changes you just might squeak through. But again with Amtrak and NS who knows?

Again, I am sorry and please forgive me.

I have the same question as I am on a silver headed south to ft Lauderdale on Tuesday. I’ll be on Silver headed north as well on Friday. My first ever train trip and I have to deal with tropical weather. . But it is what it is.

On Tuesday there is a definite possibility that they might truncate at JAX. Friday Northbound out of FLL should not be a problem unless the forecast changes drastically.

 

[Carolina2001]

I’m packing some extra snacks, battery chargers, and stuff just in case I have to wait it out at a train station or sitting on the train.

 

[enviro5609]

It is much harder to predict what Amtrak and NS put together will do than what the weather may be like, admittedly.

I am sorry to have upset you. It was entirely unintentional. I would like to apologize for the same.

Anyhow, you will get into Atlanta Wednesday night and through SC Wed night into Thursday morning. By Wednesday evening it will allegedly be a 35mph storm and you will be on the extreme west edge or just outside its projected wind field. So if nothing changes you just might squeak through. But again with Amtrak and NS who knows?

Again, I am sorry and please forgive me.

On Tuesday there is a definite possibility that they might truncate at JAX. Friday Northbound out of FLL should not be a problem unless the forecast changes drastically.

Thanks, I appreciate it. Sorry for being snippy in reply.

Sounds like I just gotta wait and see. It’ll be an adventure one way or the other.

 

[jis]

BTW, in the NHC 5pm (7/4/21) advisory it becomes a Tropical Depression before entering Georgia, so the impact in Georgia and Carolina should be even lower than we previously thought.

And also we in the Space Coast are now out of the cone, though @pennyk in Orlando is still at the eastern edge of the cone. We in Florida are all now within three days of arrival so things are becoming more solid.

It is likely that the cone will shift a little to the west within the next two advisories since at present most of the models used by NHC are to the west of NHC official path. Either those will shift east or NHC's official will shift a bit to the west. Surprisingly Elise is failing to gain strength over warm Gulf waters. That is apparently mainly because of the chaotic wind directions at different altitudes in its path, the shear of which keeps it from strengthening. According to the trusted Hurricane Model HWRF this situations last through the period that it is over the Gulf.

 

[JoeBas]

It is much harder to predict what Amtrak and NS put together will do than what the weather may be like, admittedly.

Exactly, the hardest part of running a weather consultantcy is not predicting what the storm is going to do, it's predicting what NHC is going to do about the storm. LOL

 

[JoeBas]

To answer Penny's original question, wind should be below 40 miles an hour in all inland areas as the storm passes.

However, knowing CSX, they never miss a chance to at least stick Amtrak, so there could be some delays/cancelations while the storm passes. But by Friday, it should be long gone, and there should be minimal damage.

 

[JoeBas]

Thanks, I appreciate it. Sorry for being snippy in reply.

Sounds like I just gotta wait and see. It’ll be an adventure one way or the other.

Crescent will not be impacted.

 

[pennyk]

I seem to recall, but I could be wrong, that crossing gates come down when 40+ mph winds are anticipated. Based on this map (thanks @jis for the link), there may be a small portion of a Silver route with winds at or above 40 mph (unless I am reading the map incorrectly).

 

[jis]

It should be all gone by Thursday afternoon.

 

[JoeBas]

Yup, on the current track (which has been very stable) the only places winds may approach 40 mph would be from north of Tampa inland through maybe Gainesville and Lake City, then back around to St. Marks, mainly on Wedensday. Gusts to 40 mph might be possible from there northward to the RIGHT of the track through say North Carolina through Thursday afternoon, but by Thursday night whatever's left of it will be gone away off the Mid Atlantic coast.

 

[SwedeC]

Here in JAX Beach, the auto bridges over the Intracoastal Waterway are closed at 40mph, but who knows what the freight lines will do.
Another concern might be flooding. The ground here is saturated and the creeks are full (or overflowing) today from days of showers.