Hurricane Sandy and Amtrak.

[Just-Thinking-51]

With thousands upon thousands of miles traveling Amtrak from coast to coast in all seasons, this is the first time I've ever been concerned about weather affecting an upcoming trip. I am traveling to Washington DC on the Capitol Limited, leaving Cleveland early on Nov. 3rd. After arriving in DC, I am leaving late on the night of the 3rd, I am going to Boston on #66 up the NEC arriving early Sunday morning on the 4th. At Boston, my wife, who will be there visiting her sister, and I will board the Lake Shore Limited on that Sunday morning to return back to Cleveland.

I know the storm is supposed to pass through somewhere along my path a few days before my trip. I am concerned about damage that would shut down the NEC for several days. I forget how long part of it was shut down, I think it was last year, but it seemed like it was three or four days. That would put me very close to getting stranded somewhere for the very first time.

Yes you might have a issue, but you will have plenty of time after the storm to worry / seek another route, or different transportation.

Point of fact is we don't have any idea of the severity of the storm this far out. Oh yes NJ, NY is going to get wet, but other than cleaning out the gutters on your house, and bring in the outside stuff, nothing to stress out about.

Yet

.

 

[Ryan]

I would also recommend ensuring you're prepared for a loss of power for a period of time. Batteries, flashlights, if you have a generator pick of a can or two of gas and ensure that the motor is in running order. If you get some of the small water bottles, you can use them to fill up the empty spaces in your freezer now. The water will freeze and if the power goes out the ice bottles will help the freezer stay cold for a longer period of time.

This morning's forecast from the NHC has shifted the projected landfall south into Delaware:

 

[AmtrakBlue]

I would also recommend ensuring you're prepared for a loss of power for a period of time. Batteries, flashlights, if you have a generator pick of a can or two of gas and ensure that the motor is in running order. If you get some of the small water bottles, you can use them to fill up the empty spaces in your freezer now. The water will freeze and if the power goes out the ice bottles will help the freezer stay cold for a longer period of time.

This morning's forecast from the NHC has shifted the projected landfall south into Delaware:

Yep, looks like she's coming for a visit here. I already have bags of ice in my freezer since I have so little food in there anyway. I have an ice maker, so I will probably fill up some more ziplock bags by Monday night. We went through all this with Irene last year. Hopefully the caulking my landlord put around a window after Irene sent some minor rain into our living room/basement (through the floor board) is still "good". I'll have to remember to put a tarp under the window just in case.

 

[Ryan]

Here's a link to an excellent post describing some of the science behind this storm and what some of the possible impact could be - it's an excellent read:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2284806#p2284806

Here's an excerpt talking about possible impacts (but I highly suggest going to read the whole thing):

Possible Impacts:
As with any rare weather event the impacts are somewhat of an unknown. Additionally the uncertainty of how Sandy will evolve and how is curves back toward the US coast will drive where and how severe the impacts will be.

It can be easily stated that should the forecast track and models “spectacular” low pressure verify a storm of rare intensity and tremendous impacts will be felt along the NE and mid-Atlantic coast. Given the forecasted perpendicular strike on the coast, onshore winds will push the Atlantic Ocean inland along the New Jersey and New York coast including New York City. Due to the high blocking over Greenland, the fetch of wind will extend nearly across the entire Atlantic Ocean and this will result in massive wave action aimed at the NE US coast. Lunar tides are also near peak with the full moon on Monday and this combined with the wave run-up and long duration of onshore winds (20-30 hours at 60-80mph) will result in potentially record breaking storm surge values. The potential is there for coastal inundation of sea water never before experienced in the NE US including New York City, but this depends heavily on the exact track of the center of Sandy.

Strong winds will batter much of the mid Atlantic and NE for not hours but days as Sandy moves NW to WNW and slows. These winds will last anywhere from 20-30 hours at 60-80mph with higher gust resulting in widespread power outages and downed trees. Strong winds will spread well inland from the coast into Canada and the OH valley.

Rainfall will be extensive as tropical moisture is brought northward with Sandy and pushed against a stalled front nearly along the higher terrain of the Appalachian mountains. Flooding rainfall due to the high rainfall rates and slow storm motion is likely and it is possible some rivers will reach record crests.

Impacts over the open Atlantic will be severe with a massive area of sustained winds of 60-70mph over hundreds of miles. Wave heights will build into the 20-30 foot range and I would not be surprised to see heights build toward 40-45 feet. Visibilities will be reduced to near zero in blowing sea spray and heavy rainfall.

Potential for widespread travel and commerce disruption as air, surface, sea, and rail travel will likely be significantly impacted along with widespread long term power outages which could last well into November.

 

[amamba]

Ugh. I am supposed to close on a new house on 11/6. It's a short sale so we are buying it "as is". I sincerely hope it doesn't get damaged by the storm prior to closing. Honestly I would rather close prior to the storm, that way my insurance would cover any damages sustained by wind.

Everyone, please stay safe!

 

[afigg]

With thousands upon thousands of miles traveling Amtrak from coast to coast in all seasons, this is the first time I've ever been concerned about weather affecting an upcoming trip. I am traveling to Washington DC on the Capitol Limited, leaving Cleveland early on Nov. 3rd. After arriving in DC, I am leaving late on the night of the 3rd, I am going to Boston on #66 up the NEC arriving early Sunday morning on the 4th. At Boston, my wife, who will be there visiting her sister, and I will board the Lake Shore Limited on that Sunday morning to return back to Cleveland.

I know the storm is supposed to pass through somewhere along my path a few days before my trip. I am concerned about damage that would shut down the NEC for several days. I forget how long part of it was shut down, I think it was last year, but it seemed like it was three or four days. That would put me very close to getting stranded somewhere for the very first time.

The storm looks to hit the Mid-Atlantic region around Monday. It would be a very unusual for the NEC to be disrupted for more than several days. Extensive flooding is what can close the NEC for extended periods, but by Saturday, it should be running. If you were doing this trip Wednesday or Thursday, it would be more at risk, but you should be ok. The caveat is the Capitol Limited. If the severe weather from storm moves far enough inland to western PA and MD, CSX might shut the route down for a few days while they clear the ROW.

 

[jis]

The storm looks to hit the Mid-Atlantic region around Monday. It would be a very unusual for the NEC to be disrupted for more than several days. Extensive flooding is what can close the NEC for extended periods, but by Saturday, it should be running. If you were doing this trip Wednesday or Thursday, it would be more at risk, but you should be ok. The caveat is the Capitol Limited. If the severe weather from storm moves far enough inland to western PA and MD, CSX might shut the route down for a few days while they clear the ROW.

With the amount of rain that they are projecting, Trenton Station will most likely be under 4 feet of water as the creek tries to drain its catchment area. Hopefully SEPTA will remember to remove their trains from there this time and keep them from getting a soaking.

I think if the storm lives upto its reputation NEC will pretty much be shut down through NJ sometime Monday and will stay that way until sometime in Tuesday.

 

[Ryan]

Speaking of rainfall projections, here's the 5 day projection (so through Tuesday morning - expect these crazy values to spread north as time progresses):

 

[CHamilton]

I'm sure that those of you on the east coast are getting all the usual preparedness warnings. Here's one that's focused on your techy-type needs, like phones and such. None of this is rocket science, but it may be a good reminder. Here's wishing you all the best.

Here comes Hurricane Sandy: Charge 'em if you got 'em

Hurricane Sandy's on her way, and she's liable to make a mess of things next week. Just how bad depends on who you're reading, but regardless it's time to start getting ready.

• Charge your phones. Now. Keep them charged. And once the storm starts, keep them off. You'll likely lose power at some point, and there's a good chance your local cell network will go down for a bit, even with generator backups.
• Spare batteries. If you got 'em, make sure they're charged, too. If you still have time to get some, do it.
• Car charger. Get one. Get a couple, actually.

...and several more.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

I'm sure that those of you on the east coast are getting all the usual preparedness warnings. Here's one that's focused on your techy-type needs, like phones and such. None of this is rocket science, but it may be a good reminder. Here's wishing you all the best.

Here comes Hurricane Sandy: Charge 'em if you got 'em

Hurricane Sandy's on her way, and she's liable to make a mess of things next week. Just how bad depends on who you're reading, but regardless it's time to start getting ready.

• Charge your phones. Now. Keep them charged. And once the storm starts, keep them off. You'll likely lose power at some point, and there's a good chance your local cell network will go down for a bit, even with generator backups.
• Spare batteries. If you got 'em, make sure they're charged, too. If you still have time to get some, do it.
• Car charger. Get one. Get a couple, actually.

...and several more.

I was going to say I don't need to worry about charging my phone if the electric goes out...I can use my car. I know things could still go wrong, but, what the heck. Hmm, may need to reactivate my USB Modem. Will probably just wait to see if I need it and call to reactivate it.

I'm not too worried. I'm old enough to remember "getting along" without all the gadgetry. :giggle:

 

[The Davy Crockett]

Speaking of rainfall projections, here's the 5 day projection (so through Tuesday morning - expect these crazy values to spread north as time progresses):

With the possible rain totals in the Potomac River watershed flooding could be a major problem for 29 & 30. I remember Agnes in June 0f 1972. I can't remember if the (now) CSX tracks up the valley were severly impacted, but the damage in the river valley was horrific. BTW, HERE is a link to Agnes's track.

 

[Anderson]

*sighs*

Ok, it looks like I'm going to be heading down to Florida for a few days to avoid a hurricane. Again. Fortunately, the Silvers are on low bucket for Sunday night.

 

[jis]

*sighs*

Ok, it looks like I'm going to be heading down to Florida for a few days to avoid a hurricane. Again. Fortunately, the Silvers are on low bucket for Sunday night.

That's because there have been lots of cancellations. Given CSXs past record, my guess is there will be no Silvers running Sunday night, or worse if they are running they will get stuck somewhere on the way, or be running under flash flood warning at 10mph, since its route passes through areas that will have Tropical Storm force winds and soaking rain by that time. You'd probably be better off heading off to Chicago tomorrow

BTW United Airlines have already posted their fee waiver and fare difference waiver policy for all airports affected by Sandy:

Flight Changes:

When rescheduled travel commences by November 4, 2012, change fees and fare differences will be waived.

For all other dates and ticket uses, the change fee will be waived, but a difference in fare may apply.

​​​Refunds:

Refunds are permitted only if your flight is cancelled or delayed at least 2 hours.

Policies also apply to consolidator, internet tickets, and MileagePlus® award tickets.

​​​

Not a peep from Amtrak yet. So I am assuming all Amtrak service will run without being affected by Sandy. Well not really. I just cancelled my mileage run to Savannah this weekend. Did so 24 hours before departure to get 100% refund.

 

[PRR 60]

...

BTW United Airlines have already posted their fee waiver and fare difference waiver policy for all airports affected by Sandy:

Flight Changes:

When rescheduled travel commences by November 4, 2012, change fees and fare differences will be waived.

For all other dates and ticket uses, the change fee will be waived, but a difference in fare may apply.

​​​Refunds:

Refunds are permitted only if your flight is cancelled or delayed at least 2 hours.

Policies also apply to consolidator, internet tickets, and MileagePlus® award tickets.

​​​

Not a peep from Amtrak yet. So I am assuming all Amtrak service will run without being affected by Sandy. Well not really. I just cancelled my mileage run to Savannah this weekend. Did so 24 hours before departure to get 100% refund.

Interesting that weather issues are typically addressed by airlines prior to the event, and Amtrak is always after-the-fact reactive. One would think that it would be in Amtrak's best interest to clear reservations from service that has a good chance of being disrupted, but I guess they don't think that far ahead.

 

[johnny.menhennet]

...

BTW United Airlines have already posted their fee waiver and fare difference waiver policy for all airports affected by Sandy:

Flight Changes:

When rescheduled travel commences by November 4, 2012, change fees and fare differences will be waived.

For all other dates and ticket uses, the change fee will be waived, but a difference in fare may apply.

​​​Refunds:

Refunds are permitted only if your flight is cancelled or delayed at least 2 hours.

Policies also apply to consolidator, internet tickets, and MileagePlus® award tickets.

​​​

Not a peep from Amtrak yet. So I am assuming all Amtrak service will run without being affected by Sandy. Well not really. I just cancelled my mileage run to Savannah this weekend. Did so 24 hours before departure to get 100% refund.

Interesting that weather issues are typically addressed by airlines prior to the event, and Amtrak is always after-the-fact reactive. One would think that it would be in Amtrak's best interest to clear reservations from service that has a good chance of being disrupted, but I guess they don't think that far ahead.

I'm not sure what you mean by clearing reservations, but with odds shaping up like they are, I would think it smart to just show a "SOLD OUT" for a few days. This doesn't affect current passengers if the situation turns out to be fine, but Amtrak could always open up space again 12 hours out, to maybe make up SOME of that.

 

[Phil S]

IMHO: hboy: The National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center rely very heavily on computer models for their forecasts. These computer models are based in no small part on historical data. The problem that arises in predicting Sandy's track is that, because it is an unusual and rare stitaution, there is not a lot of historical data to feed into the computer models. This increases the unreliabilty of the models and thus, the forecasts. The next 5 or 6 days should be interesting...

Actually they don't use a single model. They use an ensemble of models and their predictions and use a weighted average of some sort to come up with the most probable path and intensity projections together with confidence intervals for the projection. The further out you go in time the lower is the confidence and bigger is the diameter of the probability cone. All models are not based only on history. They use detailed water temp, air temp and atmospheric condition data and feed them into models that run on various Supercomputers. It is quite a fascinating thing actually. Here is what the ensemble model for this storm looks like at present:

I'm under the impression that none of the dynamic models use any sort of storm historical data directly in the simulations. Of course parameter values are based on all sorts of historical data. The intensity forecast, OTOH, is based almost entirely on a statistical analysis of previous storms (SHIPS - Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme).

The storm surge will only be a factor to the east/north of where the eye makes landfall. Unfortunately, the most likely path takes it inland west/south of NYC. Regardless, unless we're incredibly lucky, it's going to be a real mess.

 

[PRR 60]

Interesting that weather issues are typically addressed by airlines prior to the event, and Amtrak is always after-the-fact reactive. One would think that it would be in Amtrak's best interest to clear reservations from service that has a good chance of being disrupted, but I guess they don't think that far ahead.

I'm not sure what you mean by clearing reservations, but with odds shaping up like they are, I would think it smart to just show a "SOLD OUT" for a few days. This doesn't affect current passengers if the situation turns out to be fine, but Amtrak could always open up space again 12 hours out, to maybe make up SOME of that.

Clearing reservations means allowing passengers holding reservations to or from affected locations to be re-accommodated without fare change prior to the storm. That is what airlines do. Someone booked into or out of EWR on UA can now go online or call UA and be rebooked on a flight either before the storm or a few days after the storm with no rebooking fee and no change of fare. If there is a seat on a flight, they can get it, even if they paid a low sale fare months ago. That is great for the passenger. It reduces the uncertainty involved with travelling during the storm. The airline wins as well. Each person who rebooks before the storm is one less person who has to be handled during and after the storm when phone lines are jammed and flights are booked solid for days.

Amtrak, it seems, does not see any advantage to pre-clearing reservations from trains that are likely to be impacted by a storm. If a customer calls Amtrak today wanting to rebook a departing Newark from Monday to Sunday (before the storm) or Thursday (after) will have to follow the regular rebooking process, including paying any additional fare resulting from bucket changes. Storm or no storm, it makes no difference. Amtrak will not handle storm rebookings without fare changes until a train is officially cancelled, likely during the storm. By that time, the storm is in full force, and getting through to Amtrak will not be easy. The result is even more stress on already overworked customer service reps and on passengers who may have jumped at a chance to take care of things before the storm.

 

[NW cannonball]

I'm sure that those of you on the east coast are getting all the usual preparedness warnings. Here's one that's focused on your techy-type needs, like phones and such. None of this is rocket science, but it may be a good reminder. Here's wishing you all the best.

Here comes Hurricane Sandy: Charge 'em if you got 'em

Hurricane Sandy's on her way, and she's liable to make a mess of things next week. Just how bad depends on who you're reading, but regardless it's time to start getting ready.

• Charge your phones. Now. Keep them charged. And once the storm starts, keep them off. You'll likely lose power at some point, and there's a good chance your local cell network will go down for a bit, even with generator backups.
• Spare batteries. If you got 'em, make sure they're charged, too. If you still have time to get some, do it.
• Car charger. Get one. Get a couple, actually.

...and several more.

I was going to say I don't need to worry about charging my phone if the electric goes out...I can use my car. I know things could still go wrong, but, what the heck. Hmm, may need to reactivate my USB Modem. Will probably just wait to see if I need it and call to reactivate it.

I'm not too worried. I'm old enough to remember "getting along" without all the gadgetry. :giggle:

And fill and keep full the gas tank on your car(s).

My kids were in the Hannukah Eve windstorm in Seatlle in Dec 2006. Surprising how few gas stations have backup generators - many had gas but couldn't pump it and those that could were commandeered by emergency services. Many supermarkets and shopping centers only have limited fuel for their backup generators and may have to close after less than a day without power if fuel delivery can't get through, so if grid power loss is widespread -- be prepared. And of course don't run the car in a closed garage to recharge your lithium batteries - carbon monoxide poisoning (mostly from tyring to heat apartments with charcoal) was the leading cause of death in that Seattle power outage -- which lasted up to 4 days in some suburbs.

The most popular man in their Eastside suburb was the one who had a propane-fuelled water heater. Lots of friends showed up to take a candle-light shower at his place - especially on the 3d and 4th day of the power outage.

Take care.

Eric

 

[ScottRu]

11:00 AM EST on Saturday - the Euro and US projections are coalescing and predicting the storm will hit around NJ and will arrive earlier than originally thought - Monday afternoon/evening is now predicted to be landfall. This thing is huge, and as many have noted - though the eye of the storm will be particularly violent, those of us up and down the East Coast will be hit hard. I hope everyone is safe through this one.

 

[The Davy Crockett]

Supplies are in. Now its time to batten down the hatches. h34r:

 

[Anderson]

And I'm booked on the Meteor tomorrow night. I moved my departure up as much as my schedule allows me to in light of the changing storm schedule.

Edit: Oddity I've noticed. The Meteor is down to one room left and the Star is sold out (those sleepers are selling quite quickly today...I'm guessing I'm not the only one doing what I'm doing). Why in the blazes are the Meteor roomettes still at $322 rather than at $458?

 

[The Davy Crockett]

And I'm booked on the Meteor tomorrow night. I moved my departure up as much as my schedule allows me to in light of the changing storm schedule.

Edit: Oddity I've noticed. The Meteor is down to one room left and the Star is sold out (those sleepers are selling quite quickly today...I'm guessing I'm not the only one doing what I'm doing). Why in the blazes are the Meteor roomettes still at $322 rather than at $458?

I believe they resell cancelled res. rooms for what the original price paid was.

 

[Anderson]

And I'm booked on the Meteor tomorrow night. I moved my departure up as much as my schedule allows me to in light of the changing storm schedule.

Edit: Oddity I've noticed. The Meteor is down to one room left and the Star is sold out (those sleepers are selling quite quickly today...I'm guessing I'm not the only one doing what I'm doing). Why in the blazes are the Meteor roomettes still at $322 rather than at $458?

I believe they resell cancelled res. rooms for what the original price paid was.

I think you're partly right...actually, I'm guessing that it's "they at least do so unless revenue management gets to the room first."

 

[CHamilton]

Not a peep from Amtrak yet.

There's darn little. Nothing on Amtrak.com, nothing on the @Amtrak or @AmtrakNEC Twitter accounts, and just a short note dated Friday afternoon on the Amtrak Facebook page:

AMTRAK PREPARES FOR HURRICANE SANDY

by Amtrak on Friday, October 26, 2012 at 1:47pm ·

Amtrak is continuously monitoring Hurricane Sandy as the storm approaches the East Coast with the potential for heavy rain and high winds.

In addition to monitoring the storm’s path, Amtrak crews and equipment are being deployed to key locations along Amtrak-owned tracks in the Northeast.

The crews will monitor, protect and make any necessary repairs to the tracks, equipment and stations, including likely removal of trees and other debris from the tracks and the overhead electrical wires after the storm passes.

Furthermore, the Amtrak Police Department will be adding officers as necessary to support operational needs.

At this time, all trains are operating as scheduled. Amtrak will continue to monitor the hurricane as it progresses and issue service updates as necessary.

Passengers are encouraged to call 800-USA-RAIL or visit Amtrak.com/alerts for Service Alerts and Passenger Notices. Schedule information and train status updates are available at Amtrak.com.

 

[jis]

Just saw a posting from what appears to be an Amtrak insider on trainorders which says

NEC is shut down Monday and Tuesday. #30 won't run out of Chicago on Sunday, #29 won't run out of DC on Monday, #48 will run on Sunday from Chicago to Albany only. More to come

I must admit I do not know the person who posted this, but the parameters presented seem quite logical. So we will see if we get verification in the near future from other sources.

In any case I expect more announcements to start rolling in over the next 12 hours.

Incidentally NY City is planning to shut down bridges if sustained winds of 60mph come to pass as forecast. Someone pointed out that it would be foolhardy for Amtrak to continue operations across the Susquehanna River with sustained cross winds of 60-70mph.