Malaysia Airlines loses contact with Flight - 239 pax/crew

[Devil's Advocate]

According to the most recent press conference the Malaysians have now identified four specific areas they focusing on. These areas were listed as [1] hijacking, [2] sabotage, [3] psychological problems, and [4] personal problems. Interestingly all of the focus points seem to revolve around intentional actions. None of them involve equipment failure or malfunction or pilot error. So, if we are to understand (and believe) the press conference it would appear that the current line of reasoning among the Malaysians potentially involves more of an EgyptAir Flight 990 or SilkAir Flight 185 angle than an Air France 447 explanation. The plot thickens.

The coverage on Bloomberg says the security at the Kuala Lumpur didn't even bother to check the database of stolen passports.

In my experience the international arrival process is where most of the security is leveraged while the departure process is generally little more than a simple formality. Unless you broke the law in the country you're about to depart you're generally free to leave without much in the way of expectations or complications. The *airline* is generally the one who worries about the suitability of your departure documents, mainly because they want to avoid having to return you on the next flight or paying a large fine for failing to abide by their legal obligations.

How did they depart without first arriving? And did they arrive under a false identity?

Perhaps they arrived using Iranian documents or they were smuggled or they used the same passports in both directions. The point is that if they are not caught on arrival they are unlikely to be caught at all, unless they are the suspected of a crime or otherwise provoke suspicion. Based on statements from multiple sources it appears the possessors of the falsified documents have been identified. Apparently they were Iranian citizens intending to immigrate to or request asylum in Western Europe rather than to commit acts of terror.

 

[jis]

The coverage on Bloomberg says the security at the Kuala Lumpur didn't even bother to check the database of stolen passports.

In my experience the international arrival process is where most of the security is leveraged while the departure process is generally little more than a simple formality. Unless you broke the law in the country you're about to depart you're generally free to leave without much in the way of expectations or complications. The *airline* is generally the one who worries about the suitability of your departure documents, mainly because they want to avoid having to return you on the next flight or paying a large fine for failing to abide by their legal obligations.

How did they depart without first arriving? And did they arrive under a false identity?

Well the guys from whom the Passports were stolen did arrive into Malaysia and so would have an entry stamp. Assuming that they were admitted for extended stay, they would be OK. Alternatively, it is not that hard to get a fake entry stamp in a Passport in Thailand or Malaysia either.
The guys who were carrying the Passports now would most likely have arrived quite legitimately using an Iranian Passport. After all there is no ban on travel between Iran and most Asian countries.

Actually the statement that they could not be caught at departure in Malaysia is not exactly true. Unlike the US, Malaysia has full court departure immigration processing, though apparently not as thorough as it could be. You actually get a departure stamp in your Passport when you depart from Malaysia. Been there and done that many times, and got many departure stamps in my Passport to validate. Actually you even (used to?) get a stamp in your Passport when you go from mainland Malaysia to Island Malaysia, or at least you used to 6 years back.

The airlines actually worry more about proper paperwork for the arriving end, and don't worry too much about the departing end, except in places like the US, where the airlines are responsible for collecting the I-94s from departing on-immigrants.

Anyway things are getting curiouser and curiouser....

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/malaysia-airlines-military-idUSL3N0M835C20140311

 

[Devil's Advocate]

The coverage on Bloomberg says the security at the Kuala Lumpur didn't even bother to check the database of stolen passports.

In my experience the international arrival process is where most of the security is leveraged while the departure process is generally little more than a simple formality. Unless you broke the law in the country you're about to depart you're generally free to leave without much in the way of expectations or complications. The *airline* is generally the one who worries about the suitability of your departure documents, mainly because they want to avoid having to return you on the next flight or paying a large fine for failing to abide by their legal obligations.

How did they depart without first arriving? And did they arrive under a false identity?

*snip*

Actually the statement that they could not be caught at departure in Malaysia is not exactly true.

Which statement is that?

Yes, you can absolutely be "caught" at departure. However, if you're not a suspect in the country you're in, are not a person of interest in the country you're in, and are not on some sort of international watch list then chances are you'll be allowed to leave. Most countries are happy to see you arrive, spend your money, and then go somewhere else. If something is going to tick them off it generally involves NOT leaving. Even in cases where you overstay your visa (or waiver) the mere act of voluntarily leaving can often prevent detention and even sidestep potential legal proceedings against you.

Unlike the US, Malaysia has full court departure immigration processing, though apparently not as thorough as it could be. You actually get a departure stamp in your Passport when you depart from Malaysia. Been there and done that many times, and got many departure stamps in my Passport to validate. Actually you even (used to?) get a stamp in your Passport when you go from mainland Malaysia to Island Malaysia, or at least you used to 6 years back.

In my experience there is no real connection between receiving a stamp in your passport and "full court" processing of your status. These days the whole stamping thing has become rather arbitrary. Sometimes they stamp the passport, sometimes they stamp the visa/waiver, and sometimes they don't stamp anything at all. The trend I'm seeing is that many countries are focusing on collecting visual and biometric histories that are probably not processed in real time but that could be used to come looking for you should something provoke their interest later.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

More Updates

(Reuters) - Malaysia's military believes a jetliner missing for almost four days turned and flew hundreds of kilometers to the west after it last made contact with civilian air traffic control off the country's east coast, a senior officer told Reuters on Tuesday.

...

Malaysian authorities have previously said flight MH370 disappeared about an hour after it took off from Kuala Lumpur for the Chinese capital Beijing. "It changed course after Kota Bharu and took a lower altitude. It made it into the Malacca Strait," the senior military officer, who has been briefed on investigations, told Reuters. That would appear to rule out sudden catastrophic mechanical failure, as it would mean the plane flew at least 350 miles after its last contact with air traffic control, although its transponder and other tracking systems were off. Malaysia's Berita Harian newspaper quoted air force chief Rodzali Daud as saying the plane was last detected at 2.40 a.m. by military radar near the island of Pulau Perak at the northern end of the Strait of Malacca. It was flying about 1,000 meters lower than its previous altitude, he was quoted as saying.

There was no word on what happened to the plane thereafter.

The effect of turning off the transponder is to make the aircraft inert to secondary radar, so civil controllers cannot identify it. Secondary radar interrogates the transponder and gets information about the plane's identity, speed and height. It would however still be visible to primary radar, which is used by militaries. Police had earlier said they were investigating whether any passengers or crew on the plane had personal or psychological problems that might explain its disappearance, along with the possibility of a hijack, sabotage or mechanical failure.

Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/us-malaysiaairlines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140311

 

[MrFSS]

Quite honestly I haven't read in detail all the news reports linked in this thread, but is it possible the plane may have made it back to land and crashed in a jungle or other remote place?

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Quite honestly I haven't read in detail all the news reports linked in this thread, but is it possible the plane may have made it back to land and crashed in a jungle or other remote place?

Absolutely. However, there would generally be an explosion or fire with an aircraft of that size carrying that much fuel. Things that tend to draw attention on both the micro and macro scale. Not to mention that the idea of remote locations devoid of human activity is mostly an urban myth at this point. With seven billion people on this planet it's exceedingly rare to find a place on land where nobody ever goes. Which is part of what makes this whole story all the more perplexing. You could presume a much more complicated answer where the plane flies further and further away until it finally reaches some lawless African outpost with a runway just barely long enough to handle a 777 running on fumes, but then it becomes difficult to explain who would do that and why. Did someone have some sort of mental breakdown? Was there some especially valuable cargo on this flight? Did someone concoct an extremely elaborate insurance fraud scheme? The answers begin to range from strange to bizarre.

 

[saxman]

Quite honestly I haven't read in detail all the news reports linked in this thread, but is it possible the plane may have made it back to land and crashed in a jungle or other remote place?

I thought this too, but the ELT (emergency locator transmitter) should have gone off then. They are suppose to set off when having an impact.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Multiple outlets are now reporting on a potential new angle involving apparently routine and intentional misconduct on the part of the low hours high status first officer.

A pretty blonde tourist has told how she and a teenage girlfriend were invited to spend an entire flight larking about in the cockpit on a previous Malaysian Airlines flight with [the] co-pilot of the now missing flight MH370. The two girls took pictures and were entertained after they were picked out of the check-in queue to join the pilots for the flight from the holiday island of Phuket to Kuala Lumpur. Ms Rose told how she and her friend sat in two spare jump seats for the whole journey, including take-off and landing. She said the pilots reportedly wanted Ms [Rose] and Ms Maree to change their travel arrangements and extend their stay in Kuala Lumpur and join them on a night on the town.

Perhaps we're on the verge of discovering another Aeroflot Flight 593 type incident.

Link: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/flight-mh370-copilot-entertained-women-in-cockpit-and-smoked-on-previous-flight-9183812.html

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

There have been accidents when a plane crashed but did not explode. But for such a large plane with so much fuel, it's unlikely. There's speculation that maybe the plane nosedived into the Gulf of Thailand and embedded itself in the seabed, since the Gulf of Thailand is not very deep.

 

[railiner]

Quite honestly I haven't read in detail all the news reports linked in this thread, but is it possible the plane may have made it back to land and crashed in a jungle or other remote place?

Something like that island in the recent tv series "Lost"?......

 

[PRR 60]

There is no possibility that a plane could hit water at high speed and simply enter the water whole and embed. Hitting water at speed is like hitting concrete. The plane would break up on impact. Items would be floating.

Given that they have not found a trace of anything, the only firm conclusion I can reach is that they are looking in the wrong place. Locating the right place is the trick. With the conflicting reports of what was or was not picked up by Malaysian military radar after the plane's transponder went off, it could be almost anywhere.

Airliners.net is now up to 14 topics and over 4000 posts about MH370. I think there are about 4000 different theories. In all my time of following aviation as a fan, this is by far the most bazaar incident ever.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

There is no possibility that a plane could hit water at high speed and simply enter the water whole and embed. Hitting water at speed is like hitting concrete. The plane would break up on impact. Items would be floating.

Given that they have not found a trace of anything, the only firm conclusion I can reach is that they are looking in the wrong place. Locating the right place is the trick. With the conflicting reports of what was or was not picked up by Malaysian military radar after the plane's transponder went off, it could be almost anywhere.

Airliners.net is now up to 14 topics and over 4000 posts about MH370. I think there are about 4000 different theories. In all my time of following aviation as a fan, this is by far the most bazaar incident ever.

Thanks for explaining. I'm a lurker on that site too, but I can't read through every theory about MH370. As I said, maybe a possibility is that it crashed in the rainforest and didn't explode. But it's unlikely, so they're probably looking in the wrong place.

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

Command and Control of the search function is lacking. Sure it's a big space, but it been years since we lost a aircraft and never located the crash.

We as a country should just "Do it". Our reason will be as cheap as three US passengers, on a US built aircraft. Spend the time, the money, put the boots on the ground and get it done. Sure toes will be step on, but in the end we will have a answer.

Time to read Devils Advocate rant and rave post #73 again. I am spend way too much time on this event.

 

[Paulus]

This is not an unprecedentedly or even unusual length of time to be searching for the aircraft.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

This is not an unprecedentedly or even unusual length of time to be searching for the aircraft.

Then it should be easy for you to name some incidents involving widebody commercial aircraft operating in scheduled service with a major airline that took forty or fifty reconnaissance craft from a half dozen countries (including two superpowers) five or more days just to locate the first signs of the crash area. Good luck with that.

 

[jis]

Apparently a new area has been added to the search area, which is so far north that now India is joining the search(!!!!) likely due to its proximity to Indian Territory around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal!!!! The mystery thickens further!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/12/mh370-malaysia-airlines-search-expands-third-possible-sighting

 

[SarahZ]

I ran across this today:

http://www.policymic.com/articles/85047/how-you-can-help-find-the-missing-malaysia-airlines-flight

It's interesting in concept and shows just how massive/difficult this is going to be.

I wonder if they've opened themselves up to trolls tagging willy-nilly, though. Hopefully, they have people double-checking the tags before sending a ship to investigate.

 

[Texan Eagle]

Can anyone do a roundup of all theories and conspiracies around MH370 so far, so that when the plane is finally found we can see how far from the truth everyone was? The ones I have read so far are-

1. Rapid decompression. Plane exploded mid-air and remains scattered over a large area.

2. Slow decompression. Crew and passengers died of oxygen deprivation. Plane flew as far as fuel would take it and crashed somewhere

3. Loss of spatial awareness. Plane plummeted one-piece into the sea

4. Terrorists/bomb blast exploded the plane mid-air

5. Hijacked and taken off-course. Crash landed somewhere in forests or similar inaccessible terrain

6. All communication systems down due to some catastrophic mechanical failure but plane has emergency landed at some small island

7. Malaysian/Vietnamese/Chinese military shot down the plane in mistaken identity and massive cover-up is going on

8. Hot blonde girls in cockpit distracted the pilots causing lack of awareness and/or crash

Anyone heard more ideas?

 

[Devil's Advocate]

In very basic terms this is what I can list off the top of my head...

Explosive Decompression - Lack of debris along scheduled route remains unexplained.

Distraction of Pilot(s) - Lack of passive communication (ACARS/ADS-B) or debris remains unexplained.

Intentional Explosion - Lack of debris remains unexplained.

Mechanical Failure - Lack of communication and lack of debris remains unexplained.

Electrical Failure - Lack of debris along scheduled route remains unexplained.

Communication Failure - Would need to be combined with another failure to explain result.

Pilot Suicide - Seems plausible but lack of debris remains unexplained.

Insurance Fraud - Seems unlikely and lack of debris remains unexplained.

Extended Loss of Oxygen - Seems plausible if it created confusion resulting in new routing.

Sudden Loss of Oxygen - Would need to be combined with another failure or miscue to explain result.

Fast Burning Fire - Seems plausible to me but lack of passive communication or debris remains unexplained.

Successful Hijacking - Lack of notice or demands remains unexplained.

Unsuccessful Hijacking - Lack of debris remains unexplained.

Aircraft Collision - No other aircraft reported missing from the area.

Drone Collision - Seems plausible to me but lack of debris likely requires a cover-up.

Meteor Collision - Probability is extremely low and lack of debris remains unexplained.

Weather Phenomenon - Weather was clear and lack of passive communication or debris remains unexplained.

Severe Turbulence - Lack of passive communication and lack of debris remains unexplained.

Friendly Fire - Seems plausible to me but lack of debris likely requires a cover-up.

Fuel Exhaustion - Lack of rafts and seat cushions remains unexplained.

Total Failure of Repaired Wing - Lack of debris remains unexplained.

Partial Failure of Repaired Wing - Lack of passive communication remains unexplained.

Electromagnetic Pulse Attack - Lack of collateral effects and debris remains unexplained.

Widespread Confusion and Lack of Logistical Focus - No doubt about it.

Aliens, Wormholes, Flying Dutchman, Sea Monsters, etc. - Grow up, get a clue, educate yourself, live a productive life.

 

[jimhudson]

Chris: You forgot "The Twilight Zone!"

 

[Paulus]

This is not an unprecedentedly or even unusual length of time to be searching for the aircraft.

Then it should be easy for you to name some incidents involving widebody commercial aircraft operating in scheduled service with a major airline that took forty or fifty reconnaissance craft from a half dozen countries (including two superpowers) five or more days just to locate the first signs of the crash area. Good luck with that.

Air France 447 took five days before wreckage was found, two years before black boxes found, and that was with a much better idea of where the plane went down. Also, quite frankly, you are overspecifying. What exactly makes a scheduled commercial flight easier to find than say an RB-36H which similarly disappears (no specific incident in mind, merely another big plane)?

 

[Ryan]

AF447 went down on June 1.

This story on June 2 reports finding the wreckage from the air:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/03/world/europe/03plane.html

 

[Paulus]

AF447 went down on June 1.

This story on June 2 reports finding the wreckage from the air:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/03/world/europe/03plane.html

Sigh. And I even went and double checked on it too.

 

[SarahZ]

AF447 went down on June 1.

This story on June 2 reports finding the wreckage from the air:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/03/world/europe/03plane.html

Sigh. And I even went and double checked on it too.

Ryan is like a fact-checker combined with a ferret.

 

[jis]

Just because y'all want to know....

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/ghost-flights-the-planes-that-disappeared-just-like-malaysia-airlines-flight-370/story-fnizu68q-1226850216236

As for why a Super Connie is described as a jet(!!!) darned if I know.