PTC Showdown approaching (resolved)

[jis]

Looks like come first of January there may not be much running outside of the NEC and LA MetroLink, unless Congress gets off its duff and does something about it. Apparently the STB which is supposed to enforce the law regarding common carrier responsibilities is in the railroad's corner on this one. Since it appears that Congress is more or less agreeable to postpone the deadline to 2018, the resolution of this problem seems simple. But the question is whether Congress can actually get even that little bill passed anymore, what with Mr. Criz working on his next government shutdown dog and pony show.

From Fred Frailey in Trains http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey/archive/2015/09/09/bnsf-we-will-be-paralyzed.aspx

In a candid letter to a U.S. senator, BNSF Railway’s chief executive, Carl Ice, said September 9 that BNSF would in effect shut down most of its network rather than violate a federal law mandating that positive train control be operational by December 31. CSX Transportation has said it, too, questions whether it should violate federal laws, and other Class I carriers are likely to follow suit. This set up the real possibility of a national transportation crisis at the beginning of 2016. The public may be unaware of how closely the U.S. economy is tied to railroads, but the reality is that without railroads, this country will quickly cease to function normally. Imagine, for instance, no electricity to heat homes.

......

 

[Bob Dylan]

Yep, people don't realize how vital the Railroads are to the economy of this country,and those that don't live where there is commuter rail, have no idea how many millions of people depend on trains to get to/from work.

As for the Government shutdown by the Clowns on the Hill, that didn't work last time for the medicine show hucksters in the lunatic wing of a certain party, and it won't again!

Their Mantra: "Tell the Government to take their hands off my Social Security and Medicare or else Shut 'er down!"

Indeed!

 

[jis]

An article more specific to impact on Amtrak:

http://www.metro-magazine.com/security-and-safety/news/295292/amtrak-service-may-be-curtailed-if-ptc-deadline-isnt-extended?ref=Express-Thursday-NEW-20150910&utm_campaign=Express-Thursday-NEW-20150910&utm_source=Email&utm_medium=Enewsletter

Amtrak passenger service that runs on tracks owned by freight rail companies may be curtailed unless Congress extends a Dec. 31 deadline to implement a safety system that was mandated seven years ago, according to an Omaha World-Herald report.

...

 

[Lonestar648]

Unfortunately, Congress lives on last second emergency deals, so would expect a deal at 11:59:59 PM on December 31st. It would be too simple to solve the problem now so everyone can continue working without all the expense of prep for a shutdown, but what do these people know or care about profit and loss.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Any chance we'll see a waiver that involves freight railroads disallowing passenger operations on routes that are missing fully deployed PTC? That would seem to kill two birds with one stone and probably bring in some fat political donations as well. Win-win for everyone already at the top.

 

[Lonestar648]

Hadn't thought of that angle. What a way to shut down Amtrak quickly and blame it on safety, just what several on the Hill might be drooling about.

 

[neroden]

Make no mistake, this is grandstanding by the criminal class I managements.

They could have implemented automatic train stop as early as 1945. They chose not to.

If they decide to "shut down" their networks, the STB has the power to seize the networks and have someone else run them. I don't think they really want to risk THAT.

They don't have friends in Congress right now. Throwing hissy fits isn't going to get them anywhere.

It's also worth noting that the STB chairman is known not to represent the views of all, or even necessarily a majority, of the STB. There could be a serious internal political fight on if the STB chairman decides to play brinksmanship games.

Frailey writes:

"I take railroads at their word that they have diligently tried to install PTC by the deadline."

Frailey may, but I don't. The railroads fooled around trying to delay the requirement, tried to get it repealed, and fooled around with new technology demonstrations, when they could have implemented systems based on track circuits promptly. The railroads which did implement systems based on track circuits are way, way ahead of the other goofballs. This is not a diligent attempt to install PTC, this is an irresponsible attempt to avoid installing the technology which the NTSB and the ICC have been trying to get them to install since the 1940s.

I'll go further: BNSF's Carl Ice is making an idle threat when he threatens to shut down BNSF. Don't believe for a minute that Warren Buffett or his stockholders would tolerate this sort of hissy fit.

And they can't shut down the commuter lines, either. While a lot of them aren't big enough to create major political storms, Metra in Chicago alone would create sufficient political blowback that they could find their track seized and nationalized.

I presume the idle threats are primarily an attempt to kick Congress into doing something, but if so it's going to the wrong people. The Senate acted long ago; the Republican leadership in the House has been refusing to do its job for the last 2 years.

----

I see that UP is throwing a similar idle threat.

This is one way it can play out:

-- FRA, angered by the bad attitude of the Class Is, issues the necessary and required fines at the high rate.

-- Hissy-fit managments shut down the rail traffic.

-- STB seizes the lines, orders them operated by another carrier, and doesn't return them. (It doesn't have to.)

-- The former management spends the next 30 years in court trying to figure out what the lines were worth before they were seized by eminent domain.

-- Endless lawsuits ensue.

The Class I managements certainly don't want that. They'll be afraid to carry out their threats.

I actually suspect that the idle threats are designed for two purposes: (a) to get Congress to grant extensions, which might happen if the House weren't run by do-nothing lunatics, and (b) to get the STB to issue orders ordering the class Is to operate (including passenger and TIH traffic).

The class Is would much rather be operating because the STB ordered them to, rather than on their own initiative, because they could use the orders as an excuse for not having to pay the fines.

 

[jis]

The House has just decided to consider a bill to extend the PTC deadline to 2018 giving FRA the authority to grant extensions to railroads that can make a case for it, which apparently most will be able to. The whole issue with getting permits from FCC to set up radio towers in time and getting spectrum will likely give every railroad an out. Amtrak will still barely make it with some difficulty because of delays in acquiring radio spectrum. AFAICT NJT, LIRR and MNRR will not make the deadline, nor apparently will MBTA.

See this article:

http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/255427-house-moves-to-extend-automated-train-deadline#.Vgv0C5hFk3E.twitter

It is almost certain that the Senate will concur with the House on this since they have already included such an extension in there PRRIA bill.

I am almost certain that neroden's scenario above is way out in la-la fantasy land and has zero chance of coming to pass. But of course we will know in a few months for sure.

 

[MikefromCrete]

What, Neroden make some crazy, out-of-this-world statement with nothing to back it but his own opinion? That would never happen.

 

[Shortline]

Never mind, couldn't delete my whole post, so editing as follows.... Not going there....Just know, that as someone working on PTC implementation, I would suggest simply discounting Neroden's post, it is painfully clear he has absolutely no idea what he is speaking about on this subject.

 

[jis]

I have already been doing that for a while now.

 

[Karl1459]

Do the class 1's have to shut down completely, or could they just embargo passenger and hazardous materials and be in compliance?

If I recall correctly some of the class 1's are not happy with the rate structure for hazardous materials as the insurance costs are WAY higher than for non hazardous cargo. Passenger rail might be only a side show in their overall picture.

 

[MattW]

This is more of a PTC general question than one specific to the topic at hand, but it's pretty short and does impact the topic. Is PTC required in station trackage? I'm principally thinking something like Chicago Union Station or LAUPT where you only have short segments of passenger-owned track as opposed to say Washington Union Station where the mainlines leading to the station are basically owned by Amtrak.

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

PTC is off the shelf equipment. No reason that the US railroads had to redesign the wheel, other than greed. Now they blame FCC when a hard wired track side solution was a money order away. ERMS Level 1 vs 3.0.0. Sure you need to get the FRA to sign off it, but the GPS system need to be signed off too.

A CEO just when to jail for a food poisoning. Time to hold the railroads accountable for there inaction.

Railroads are growing, not a failing. Of course the new class 8 truck that are self driving might change that.

Nationalize the railroads, not going to happen, but just think of the possibles if it does happen.

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

This is more of a PTC general question than one specific to the topic at hand, but it's pretty short and does impact the topic. Is PTC required in station trackage? I'm principally thinking something like Chicago Union Station or LAUPT where you only have short segments of passenger-owned track as opposed to say Washington Union Station where the mainlines leading to the station are basically owned by Amtrak.

A Talgo train in Spain derailed when it left a high speed track section and was entering a station with out PTC. A Amtrak train derailed while on the "S" curves leaving a station. Both derailments killed people, both due to excess speed, on tracks that were not cover by PTC.

I vote ever track ever mile.

 

[Thirdrail7]

This is more of a PTC general question than one specific to the topic at hand, but it's pretty short and does impact the topic. Is PTC required in station trackage? I'm principally thinking something like Chicago Union Station or LAUPT where you only have short segments of passenger-owned track as opposed to say Washington Union Station where the mainlines leading to the station are basically owned by Amtrak.

I believe the answer is PTC is not required in terminals and yards.

 

[neroden]

The House has just decided to consider a bill to extend the PTC deadline to 2018 giving FRA the authority to grant extensions to railroads that can make a case for it, which apparently most will be able to.

So it looks like the House leadership might have just enough sanity left in it to vote for an extension.
Well, I thought the idle threats were really an attempt to wake up the House members. If it worked, great.

They were certainly idle threats, though. The Class Is don't really have the option of shutting down, and if they were crazy enough to try to do so, they would get the blame and the blowback would be on the scale of my scenario.

I'm still absolutely disgusted with the lazy delaying tactics used by the Class I freights. PTC was, in fact, pretty much an off-the-shelf technology with at least 4 available implementations, ERTMS/ETCS being the most obvious.

In an attempt to cheap out and avoid spending the money they needed to spend, the Class Is tried to invent a new GPS-based version of PTC, which obviously didn't work, and ended up costing more than it would have cost to put in all the balises and track circuits. The delay is entirely their fault.

In the last GAO report, it says quite explicitly that the railroads which are finishing PTC by the deadline are (with the sole exception of Metrolink) the ones who are NOT trying to implement I-ETMS, the GPS-based nonsense system.

I could have told them that a GPS-based system wouldn't work. GPS simply doesn't have the precision necessary. But noooooo, the idiots running the Class Is bought the bill of goods being sold to them by the GPS advertisers. It's stuff like this that makes me well aware that I'm much smarter than your average American CEO. Unfortunately for the country.

Then again, there's Pan Am and the MBTA, which simply haven't lifted a finger to even get started. And they *are* implementing an off the shelf, trackside system, namely ACSES -- they just haven't bothered to actually do so! This is even more negligent behavior, only partially excusable by pleading poverty.

 

[west point]

Putting RRs eggs in the GPS baskets will come to bite them in the behind big time. Of course everything is going GPS. If it is out you cannot even make gasoline purchases on your credit car just as one example. Try getting many millennials to navigate with using GPS. etc. Much timekeeping is now slaved to GPS time broadcasts.

 

[TylerP42]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/06/amtrak-threatens-to-suspend-service-dec-31-unless-congress-extends-safety-deadline.html

interesting read. I'm not impacted at this point, but I know some of you are.

 

[user 1215]

Didn't see this on the first page, so if it's already being discussed, oh well.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/06/amtrak-threatens-to-suspend-service-dec-31-unless-congress-extends-safety-deadline.html

Threaten to start issuing 30 day notices on Dec 1st unless Congress gives them a PTC extention.

 

[TylerP42]

Didn't see this on the first page, so if it's already being discussed, oh well.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/06/amtrak-threatens-to-suspend-service-dec-31-unless-congress-extends-safety-deadline.html

Threaten to start issuing 30 day notices on Dec 1st unless Congress gives them a PTC extention.

You just reposted what I posted yesterday.

 

[John Bobinyec]

Didn't see this on the first page, so if it's already being discussed, oh well.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/06/amtrak-threatens-to-suspend-service-dec-31-unless-congress-extends-safety-deadline.html

Threaten to start issuing 30 day notices on Dec 1st unless Congress gives them a PTC extention.

You just reposted what I posted yesterday.

VentureForth posted this in a new thread. One of the moderators combined that thread and this one. I know it looks like it was re-posted in the same forum, but it wasn't.

jb

 

[TylerP42]

Didn't see this on the first page, so if it's already being discussed, oh well.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/06/amtrak-threatens-to-suspend-service-dec-31-unless-congress-extends-safety-deadline.html

Threaten to start issuing 30 day notices on Dec 1st unless Congress gives them a PTC extention.

You just reposted what I posted yesterday.

VentureForth posted this in a new thread. One of the moderators combined that thread and this one. I know it looks like it was re-posted in the same forum, but it wasn't.
jb

I'm on mobile, so I don't see when threads are moved.

 

[jis]

Here is the GAO September 2015 Report on PTC deployment status:

http://www.gao.gov/assets/680/672320.pdf

 

[A Voice]

The real danger is that Congress finally passes an extension at the eleventh hour, or worse - after the first of the year. Even waiting until mid-December (there will be real pressure to get this done so legislators can go home for Christmas) will produce a (completely avoidable and unnecessary) debacle at Amtrak when notices of train suspensions will have already been issued, and people will have begun to make other travel plans even if nothing is ever actually suspended. Further problems ensue when Amtrak actually begins to stop running trains and park equipment, right during the height of the holiday travel season.

All Congress must do is just pass an extension in the next few weeks, and the (immediate) problem goes away. It should be so simple and obvious; This isn't a partisan issue and if such relatively mundane matters cannot be dealt with in a timely manner, it is a clear reflection of just how poorly the legislative branch can actually perform its function.