Silver Sleepers Sold out

[GuestChooChoo]

We should have answers by mid to late next week. Lots of rumors running rampant among OBS, all of which have been thoroughly covered here. Something is definitely afoot in Miami... h34r:

 

[Bus Nut]

The interesting thing about this is that the Star and the Meteor are redundant if you're doing a Florida to NEC (or reverse) trip. Not so much if you need a stop in NC, SC, GA or parts of Southern VA. But since they run through that territory overnight, the stop level activity is probably not that great (except for Savannah, GA, where the Palmetto terminates). I guess the question is whether there's a market for a sleeper without diner on an overnight train like that, or if everyone will pile onto the Meteor (which IMO has better times if you're doing the overnight) and the Star will be dominated by shorter trips. The problem with THAT is that Amtrak makes less money on short trips.

It is kind of the perfect demonstration case because they can show a before and after and they won't be putting that many customers out. Of course, that's assuming management doesn't back away from the plan at the last minute and just leave things status quo.

 

[jis]

Family bedroom is still bookable on the CONO out to Feb 2016. None of those on single level trains.

I actually do not believe the CONO rumor for a moment. I believe it to be an armchair speculation rumor given the available concrete info at this moment.

 

[Anderson]

Jim,

I could see an experiment with the Cardinal happening. That would actually, IMHO, be a worthy experiment in some regards...especially seeing as the second sleeper on the Cardinal was a hit last year and apparently pushed the cafe to the breaking point.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

I would be ok without a diner on a one-night train and the reduced price for the room. But then, I'm not as picky as some people on AU.

 

[prech786]

What am I missing here? Amtrak reduces the cost of sleeper space on the Star by eliminating meals. Wouldn’t that lower price typically drive up demand for space? But then the rumors are they will cut back the supply of rooms by removing one sleeper? Lower the price to increase demand but then reduce supply that then leads back to towards a higher average price. Seems to fail the ECON101 Supply/Demand test.

This assumes of course that the price of sleeper space contributes to a positive Net Income/Cash Flow by whatever “Accounting Method” Amtrak uses. If the Net Income/Cash Flow will be negative at the new price point by all means reduce the supply of money losing space. The Star's low sleeper price then becomes just a Marketing expense, loss-leader like gimmick.

 

[peconicstation]

Remember this was a time when the Palmetto ran to Miami and Tampa as a coach train.

http://www.timetables.org/full.php?group=20020429n&item=0033

Prior to this there was a point when the Palmetto was extended to Jacksonville, then a time when it ran as a full service LD train to Tampa.

It was dropped from the schedule, and then came back as a NYP to Savannah day train, as it was in it's original Amtrak form.

Ken

 

[Train2104]

What am I missing here? Amtrak reduces the cost of sleeper space on the Star by eliminating meals. Wouldn’t that lower price typically drive up demand for space? But then the rumors are they will cut back the supply of rooms by removing one sleeper? Lower the price to increase demand but then reduce supply that then leads back to towards a higher average price. Seems to fail the ECON101 Supply/Demand test.

This assumes of course that the price of sleeper space contributes to a positive Net Income/Cash Flow by whatever “Accounting Method” Amtrak uses. If the Net Income/Cash Flow will be negative at the new price point by all means reduce the supply of money losing space. The Star's low sleeper price then becomes just a Marketing expense, loss-leader like gimmick.

They're probably betting on the lack of a dining car driving down demand.

 

[Ryan]

<assumption: rumor= true>

Which is a safe bet.

Also, the sleeper isn't going away, it's getting moved to the Meteor, so the supply side is unchanged for many city pairs (not all).

</assumption>

 

[prech786]

What am I missing here? Amtrak reduces the cost of sleeper space on the Star by eliminating meals. Wouldn’t that lower price typically drive up demand for space? But then the rumors are they will cut back the supply of rooms by removing one sleeper? Lower the price to increase demand but then reduce supply that then leads back to towards a higher average price. Seems to fail the ECON101 Supply/Demand test.

This assumes of course that the price of sleeper space contributes to a positive Net Income/Cash Flow by whatever “Accounting Method” Amtrak uses. If the Net Income/Cash Flow will be negative at the new price point by all means reduce the supply of money losing space. The Star's low sleeper price then becomes just a Marketing expense, loss-leader like gimmick.

They're probably betting on the lack of a dining car driving down demand.

<assumption: rumor= true>

Which is a safe bet.

Also, the sleeper isn't going away, it's getting moved to the Meteor, so the supply side is unchanged for many city pairs (not all).

</assumption>

The vast majority of today’s travelers are price sensitive not amenity sensitive. If the price point is correct demand will go up. If it doesn’t, it wasn’t priced right. It's not that the customers are holding out for a “free” steak.

No one I think is talking about a “foodless” 28-hr Silver Star trip. Rumor mill suggests a café/lounge type service. I assume like SSL and Lake Shore Ltd. café/lounge type food. Again if the price were right plenty of sleeper customers would be satisfied paying for a Salad, Cheeseburger or Pan Pizza and Soda or a Breakfast sandwich, yogurt, coffee & juice. Count me in here, LOL.

Adding an extra sleeper to the Meteor at its higher “all inclusive food” price really wouldn’t keep the “supply” the same if there were a cheaper priced sleeper alternative, i.e. Silver Star, to the same destination. It seems analogous to an airline dropping a coach flight and adding two all First Class flights and saying the “supply” is the same because the number of seats is the same. Quite a few of the coach customers would probably forego the trip, or find an alternate, rather than pay the amenity rich First Class fares. IMO that's the "discounted" Silver Star sleeper demand crowd.

 

[Ryan]

I have no idea what you're talking about. Amtrak is doing like dropping a coach flight and adding two first class flights. They're moving a full amenity sleeping car from one train to another. For most city pairs, the only thing different is the schedule.

The other sleeping car will have reduced amenities and be cheaper to reflect that.

I'm not sure what's so complicated about it.

 

[Christine Yurgaites]

Whatever the issue (managerial, operational, political), it needs to be resolved and if customer participation is required to resolve it, we need direction. My husband and I are frequent rail (as opposed to air) passengers mostly by choice, somewhat by necessity. Any LD train without sleepers would not be possible for us as I suspect would be the case with many others.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

Whatever the issue (managerial, operational, political), it needs to be resolved and if customer participation is required to resolve it, we need direction. My husband and I are frequent rail (as opposed to air) passengers mostly by choice, somewhat by necessity. Any LD train without sleepers would not be possible for us as I suspect would be the case with many others.

There will be a sleeper on the Star. But only one, not two. And no diner but the usual cafe car.

 

[Philip Frank]

I have roomette reservations on both 91 & 92, late August and early September (I purchased them in mid-February). While my ticket's been updated three times recently due to schedule changes, I haven't (yet) been told that my sleeper accommodations are going away. The current rumor that there will only be one sleeper could explain why I've not needed to be told that I won't have my expected accommodations. That there won't be a full diner is discouraging however, The Star's schedule fit my agenda much better than the Meteor's. But I'd consider switching trains if it meant having snack car food, otherwise.

Phil

 

[Ryan]

You haven't been told anything because there's nothing to tell yet. Just rumors at this point.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

How do we know there's nothing to tell? The never ending arrogance from a handful of backseat moderators is getting really old. Nobody needs your permission to discuss this or any other topic.

 

[Ryan]

Who is saying that they need permission to discuss something?

He speculated why he hadn't been notified of a dropped sleeper, I provided a reason.

 

[MikefromCrete]

we can discuss real stuff or we can just make up stuff. Personally I like discussions based on facts, not rumors or somebody's second idea of what might happen.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Amtrak has a long history of sitting on important information from which customers could have benefited if only they knew about it sooner. It is entirely possible to caution against runaway assumptions without being overbearing and rude. These days we seem to be acting as though this forum was the official mouthpiece of some inner circle rather than an inclusive discussion that welcomed respectful commentary from all members. Maybe mild bullying and dogpile tactics passes for civilized discourse in the Northeast, but I really don't see the point of bringing that sort of attitude into a fan forum.

 

[Ryan]

Lighten up, you're jumping at shadows dude.

I do find it amusing that you accuse others of backseat moderation, while doing the same yourself. If there are specific posts you take issue with, I suggest you report them and let the staff deal with it.

 

[pennyk]

Here is some "front seat" moderation: Please do not snipe at each other. Apparently this thread is full of rumor and speculation and everyone should take everything you read here with "a grain of salt." Thanks.

Some of the speculation/rumors are from individuals who may or may not have inside information, but it appears that there is no official public announcement from Amtrak at this time. I am sure as soon as Amtrak makes an official public announcement, it will be posted.

 

[user 1215]

...and at that time, confirmed ticket holders will be advised...again...

 

[Anderson]

I don't think the proper comparison is axing coach flights and adding all-first-class flights; I think the proper comparison would be an airline running two flights on a route that are coach-and-international first and one that is coach-and-domestic first and charging, to at least some extent, accordingly.

There's also a behavioral difference between the two trains that I have noticed: The Star will regularly pack on 30-50 passengers going north from Richmond (it basically behaves as a mid-day northbound Regional in some respects here) and the southbound discharge figures aren't far off from this. Raleigh gets a good deal of turnover as well. On the southern end, the train is known to do a lot of turnover at Orlando/Tampa.

As to only running one sleeper, the issue there is that the cafe would probably be overwhelmed by the passengers from two sleepers (assuming that meals are still included...something that I expect would be retained in some fashion, even if it was some sort of "meal voucher" in the cafe). The Cardinal has run into this issue over the last year, I believe. If they ran two sleepers (or even bumped the train to three sleepers with the new equipment order) they would need the diner to deal with the food demand (though a case would probably exist for trying the "Diner-Club" idea that Amtrak floated in the PIPs...basically, run the train with only a dining car but have an "all-day menu" available outside of the main mealtimes) since a single cafe attendant can only handle but so much traffic (and I've seen some pretty impressive lines in the cafe at mealtimes in an SSL).

I would, FWIW, hope that there would be some effort made to at least slightly bump up the food selections in the cafe (I'm not quite sure how, but something akin to the Cascades service would cut it).

 

[jis]

Interestingly when United runs International Business First hard product on domestic routes they charge the same for it as they charge for the domestic First hard product. The soft product on domestic legs is the same as domestic First irrespective of what hard product underlies it. OTOH on special domestic upper class products like the PS service they essentially use the international BF hard product with an enhanced soft product which sort of resembles the international BF product but not quite completely.

This I suppose has some bearing on the endless discussion of the myriads of BC hard and soft products that Amtrak provides all under the BC name. At least the Sleeper product both hard and soft is pretty consistent except perhaps for the Autotrain, definitely in terms of the hard product and mostly in terms of the soft product except in CS and Autotrain.

Incidentally I am using the terms "hard product" and "soft product" in the way it is used in the airline industry. Basically "hard product" is the hardware Cabin, seats and such), and "soft product" is the service provided (food, pillows, blanket, massage etc.) using the hardware.

 

[Train2104]

As to only running one sleeper, the issue there is that the cafe would probably be overwhelmed by the passengers from two sleepers (assuming that meals are still included...something that I expect would be retained in some fashion, even if it was some sort of "meal voucher" in the cafe). The Cardinal has run into this issue over the last year, I believe. If they ran two sleepers (or even bumped the train to three sleepers with the new equipment order) they would need the diner to deal with the food demand (though a case would probably exist for trying the "Diner-Club" idea that Amtrak floated in the PIPs...basically, run the train with only a dining car but have an "all-day menu" available outside of the main mealtimes) since a single cafe attendant can only handle but so much traffic (and I've seen some pretty impressive lines in the cafe at mealtimes in an SSL).

Do you think there's a nontrivial risk of the Meteor's diner not being able to handle a fourth sleeper, or is there sufficient capacity available?