Silver Star sleeper update

[Anderson]

Honestly, even if you decided to "drop" Tampa (and I can see cases both ways on this front; see below), various points about schedule flexibility and the like speak in favor of running 2-3 trains to Florida. If nothing else, there's sweeping up cities in the Carolinas with trains (i.e. you can't really cover RGH and CHS with the same train) going both north and south.

With that said, I have to wonder about the possibility of simply splitting off a "stub" service to run ORL-TPA. Of course, if I was going to do that what I would want to do is run a DMU-based service between the cities aimed at serving commuters and simply arrange to run a through sleeper (or two) and coach (or two) through from each train. In essence you'd slap the Amtrak equipment on the back of the next SunRail train to Tampa, with some sort of allowable cross-platform transfer permitted to/from the Miami-bound trains somewhere between the two cities.

 

[Paulus]

Excel file breaking down Silver Star ridership by class and distance from NARP data.

Posted this in the wrong thread earlier.

 

[Anderson]

Just doing some analysis on the Star's sleeper traffic:
-There is a noticeable spike in the number of sleeper pax at 200-299 miles and in the 500-599, 600-699, and 700-799 mile ranges that isn't entirely expected. Numbers then rise again towards the high end (900-999 rises, and you get a large number over 1100 miles). There's a gap at 1300-1399 that I believe is likely an error (especially since the percentages fall way short of 100%).
--"Over 1100" basically means "Virginia and North to Central/Southern Florida": NYP-DLD is 1128 miles (making DLD the northernmost station that can be reached on a trip of 1100 miles or more) while PTB-MIA is 1118 miles (making PTB the southernmost station that such a trip can be initiated on).
--900-999 covers two blocks of relevant city pairs. One is RGH-South Florida while the other is BAL/WAS/ALX-Central Florida.
--500-799 covers a batch of interesting city pairs. Notably, NYP-RGH shows up here (not surprising; you probably have a decent straight turnover of NYP-RGH and RGH-Florida space uses). It also includes WAS-JAX, NEC-Columbia, RGH-Central Florida, and Columbia-Florida.
--Probably the most interesting spike is in the 200-299 mile range. NYP-ALX pops up here (I know there's at least some of this going on; I've spoken with one person doing it and I know my room in Richmond has been available only after being turned over on one or two occasions). More importantly, this section also includes Tampa to everywhere south of Delray Beach...which means that Amtrak is likely working to aggressively turn spaces over at TPA. This makes additional sense in the context of the heavy TPA-South Florida traffic and Amtrak's likely efforts to turn space over.

 

[Guest]

Just doing some analysis on the Star's sleeper traffic:

--Probably the most interesting spike is in the 200-299 mile range. NYP-ALX pops up here (I know there's at least some of this going on; I've spoken with one person doing it and I know my room in Richmond has been available only after being turned over on one or two occasions). More importantly, this section also includes Tampa to everywhere south of Delray Beach...which means that Amtrak is likely working to aggressively turn spaces over at TPA. This makes additional sense in the context of the heavy TPA-South Florida traffic and Amtrak's likely efforts to turn space over.

There is minimal sleeper traffic boarding in Tampa for points south. I've yet to see any upsell attempts on day of departure or other signs of Amtrak trying to fill the space. Kind of a pet peeve of mine, actually. Few people will pay railfare plus $121 for a room - the lowest accommodation charge from Tampa to all points south. Maybe it will be an easier sell with the lower $87 charge post July 1, but then you can't use complimentary lunch to help close the sale...

 

[neroden]

There is something to be learned from Alaska Rail Road. In the off season trains they have a single food service car which serves both as the sit down meal Diner and the occasional food purchase Cafe car throughout the journey.

I have to agree. But is it possible for Amtrak to actually learn from other railroads? Amtrak doesn't even seem capable of learning from itself. Thoughtful reports on how to improve particular problems just go in the drawer, and then Amtrak does something completely different in a half-assed fashion.

 

[neroden]

By the way, I don't think the Tampa market will disappear because of a change in food services. People who want to ride the train will continue to do so. Everybody else will fly or drive. There's a certain audience for LD train travel and it will hold. It just won't get much bigger despite the hopes of many AUers.

This is deeply incorrect. There's a substantial audience who will not fly, but will drive *or* take the train and can be swayed either way. Watch the Tampa-north market for the Silver Star go back to driving.

 

[chrsjrcj]

So what I get from the excel sheet that Paulus posted, and the breakdown that Anderson did- long distance trains are important because of the varies city pairs. NARP demonstrated this in their case for LD trains: http://www.narprail.org/uploads/3/0/4/0/30401991/narp_-_ldr_multipurpose_mobility.pdf

 

[KmH]

404 - Page Not Found: with that NARP link.

 

[Paulus]

Here's the proper link.

 

[chrsjrcj]

Oops, thanks. Added a period in the link.

 

[tonys96]

Now how will this play out with AGR points? Will sleeper rooms on this train use fewer points because no meals are served?

I have reached out and asked that exact question. I'll post when I hear something.

No change to AGR awards.

I suspect the award "charges" will be adjusted in the future. My bet would be on leaving them where they are today for the "no food" trains and increasing them on those that provide meals. Time will tell........

 

[Guest]

Now how will this play out with AGR points? Will sleeper rooms on this train use fewer points because no meals are served?

I have reached out and asked that exact question. I'll post when I hear something.

No change to AGR awards.

I suspect the award "charges" will be adjusted in the future. My bet would be on leaving them where they are today for the "no food" trains and increasing them on those that provide meals. Time will tell........

They will put it in the arbitrary machine and there will be no change,

 

[neroden]

Thinking about what I said about the Tampa-to-the-north market "going back to driving", we might see some transfer of passengers onto Auto Train as well.

 

[user 1215]

This might seem like a dumb question, but from what I've ready on here, I'm sure it isn't.

5 months without a dining car seems to be a long time. All the dining car crew will be reassigned, requiring either new staff or retraining new folks to come back online after January.

I just can't shake that feeling that this test is designed to fail, yet will be promoted as a success.

 

[Guest]

My worry is that it will be a success.

Just like with the airlines. Passengers will gladly forfeit leg room, if the fares drop by just a buck. They might still complain about the lack of leg room, but secretly savor the money they saved.

I mean, people buy airline tickets by sorting by price, not by leg room. Even Amsnag is used to get the lowest fare (lowest bucket), not the most meals.

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

Maybe someone in one of the longer dwell stop cities will become creative and do like the ELP Burrito Lady or ELP Pizza Guy when the Star pulls in.

 

[neroden]

I just can't shake that feeling that this test is designed to fail, yet will be promoted as a success.

Yeah. Perhaps lower passengers, lower revenues, bad for Amtrak's bottom line, and trumpeted as a "success" because it cut dining car costs? We've seen nonsense like that before, in previous decades.

 

[jis]

Frankly listening to presentations day before yesterday at NARP from Amtrak I got a distinct impression that they would not be unhappy if the experiment fails so that they have a real world data point to use in their arguments against Congressional micromanagement to show what is known experimentally not to work. This is my impression. Maybe others that were present can chime in and confirm or refute.

 

[greatcats]

I certainly would not ride that train long distance with only a snack bar to rely on. Imagine dinner hour with lines going out the door. If they have a way to beef up the snack bar service, maybe, otherwise I would bring a cooler with my own food. I hope this brainstorm fails, too.

 

[Anderson]

Frankly listening to presentations day before yesterday at NARP from Amtrak I got a distinct impression that they would not be unhappy if the experiment fails so that they have a real world data point to use in their arguments against Congressional micromanagement to show what is known experimentally not to work. This is my impression. Maybe others that were present can chime in and confirm or refute.

That's my read. I think they are expecting it to fail; the experiment is likely only planned to run as long as it is because of bid issues. There's also the fact that by sacking and un-sacking the diner staff they can turn over X union positions from high-seniority workers to low-seniority workers, which seems to be one of those beneath-the-surface considerations.

 

[OBS]

There won't be any change in seniority workers, other than the lowest seniority, ie newest and usually most enthusiastic and customer service oriented, will be furloughed for 6 months, during which time many will find another job and when Amtrak resumes diner service in 6 months, they will find themselves desperately short of help any will be scrambling to hire....I have seen same scenario many times...

 

[cirdan]

My worry is that it will be a success.

Just like with the airlines. Passengers will gladly forfeit leg room, if the fares drop by just a buck. They might still complain about the lack of leg room, but secretly savor the money they saved.

I mean, people buy airline tickets by sorting by price, not by leg room. Even Amsnag is used to get the lowest fare (lowest bucket), not the most meals.

On airlines, people often don't have much of an alternative if they don't have the time for a surface journey. Therefore there is a significant part of the airline market that is captive and hence price driven.

In many cases, there are alternatives to train travel. Trains are neither the cheapest nor the fastest option. The people who take them nevertheless therefore do so by choice. Eroding away the reasons they make that choice may lose them as customers.

 

[KmH]

I certainly would not ride that train long distance with only a snack bar to rely on. Imagine dinner hour with lines going out the door.

Hours?

Some people like to eat breakfast/lunch/dinner early, some late, some in between.

Being a Café instead of a dining car the Café is open is only closed when the attendant is on break, instead of the limited hours the dining car is available.

A plus may be that if a person wants a hamburger or pizza for breakfast, or a bagel with cream cheese for dinner a Café car can accommodate them.

 

[jis]

My worry is that it will be a success.

Just like with the airlines. Passengers will gladly forfeit leg room, if the fares drop by just a buck. They might still complain about the lack of leg room, but secretly savor the money they saved.

I mean, people buy airline tickets by sorting by price, not by leg room. Even Amsnag is used to get the lowest fare (lowest bucket), not the most meals.

On airlines, people often don't have much of an alternative if they don't have the time for a surface journey. Therefore there is a significant part of the airline market that is captive and hence price driven.

In many cases, there are alternatives to train travel. Trains are neither the cheapest nor the fastest option. The people who take them nevertheless therefore do so by choice. Eroding away the reasons they make that choice may lose them as customers.

Unless we have evidence to the contrary, one has to start with the assumption that the demographics of those that take the train is substantially similar to those that fly, which means that lower fare will indeed trump all else for a majority of travelers. However, that does not mean the a higher level of service should be denied to those that are willing to pay for such.

This came up in the Q&A with Joe McHugh the other day, and he did mention the possibility of providing purchasable service packages over and above the base fare, so a traveler can choose such, In a sidebar conversation the thought that such packages could be made available to not just Sleeper but even to Coach passengers was mentioned too. This would of course also be an incentive to actually provide the specific service promised as part of package much more carefully, than the cavalier fashion in which Sleeper fare included "service" is handled these days. Of course with these things you can never tell what might or might not happen until the proverbial "fat lady sings", so take everything with a dollop of salt.

But one thing that seemed to keep coming out of the conversations is that almost everyone expects the Diner to be back on the Star after this test period. But it is possible that the Diner/Cafe idea that has been mentioned in a few PIPs might come to pass to enhance the revenue stream of the Diner, and other possible innovative ideas will be tried in course of time.

 

[user 1215]

There was an experiment on the Sunset Limited a long time ago testing a 24-hour diner. The testers claimed success, Amtrak declared a failure. This community all but snubbed it because Bruce Richardson was involved with it. The win win was that there were fewer long lines, people could dine whenever, they actually hired more crew and revenue more than covered the extra labor.