The effect of the potential rail strike on Amtrak

[MccfamschoolMom]

Just read this article at The Center Square Illinois: here
It seems logical that Gov. Pritzker would agree with the President's urging Congress to intervene to prevent a strike, since Chicago is such a major rail hub. The unions should have (at least most of) their demands met, and it would be best if that can be achieved without fouling up supply chains and disrupting both freight & passenger rail traffic nationwide.

 

[IanDBeacon]

Just read this article at The Center Square Illinois: here
It seems logical that Gov. Pritzker would agree with the President's urging Congress to intervene to prevent a strike, since Chicago is such a major rail hub. The unions should have (at least most of) their demands met, and it would be best if that can be achieved without fouling up supply chains and disrupting both freight & passenger rail traffic nationwide.

Such action already passed the house yesterday, and I’m sure it’s due to pass in the Senate.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...biden-on-house-action-to-avert-rail-shutdown/

 

[zephyr17]

Such action already passed the house yesterday, and I’m sure it’s due to pass in the Senate.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...biden-on-house-action-to-avert-rail-shutdown/

The question really isn't whether the Senate will pass it or not. It will. The question is how fast they can do it. If they can pass it by unanimous consent, they can do it very quickly. However, if they cannot get unanimous consent, if even one Senator objects, it will take some days to go through required Senate procedural votes. Some industries will start halting vital shipments this weekend, and Amtrak will probably start cancelling trains on Tuesday absent certainty that a settlement will be in place.

Without the 7 day sick leave addition (which, in full disclosure, I personally support), which is a separate piece of legislation passed by the House, it appears likely that at least some Senators will not support unanimous consent. However, had the House included that in a single piece of legislation, that legislation certainly would not have had unanimous consent and likely would not have passed filibuster (that separate 7 day sick leave bill probably will not pass filibuster, btw). The list of Senators that may object to unanimous consent includes Senators diverse as both Sanders and Rubio. I am sure that both Schumer and McConnell are whipping for unanimous consent for the base settlement bill, as is President Biden, that statement you linked is largely intended as pressure on recalcitrant Senators on the Democratic side, but whether they'll get it is far from certain if not downright doubtful.

Politics is performative.

Congress will almost certainly force the settlement. Whether they do so in time to avoid all potential effects of the strike threat is another question. At least some shippers and probably Amtrak will prepare for one until that "almost" is removed.

 

[jis]

The Senate can always essentially staple the two bills adopted by the house together and adopt it as a single bill in the Senate. Such things are not unheard of.

 

[Stremba]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/01/politics/senate-rail-vote/index.html
Looks like the Senate has reached a deal to vote on the legislation to avert a strike. It still is not clear when they will vote. It is also not clear whether the sick leave provision will be part of the legislation that the Senate will vote on

 

[user 14106]

For those who have Amtrak reservations: There will be no strike. Voting is underway but current vote count is overwhelming yes (over 70.) Sick leave amendment by Sanders failed.

 

[fillyjonk]

so wait, is the strike off for December? Every news site I consult seems to weasel-word the results here and I crave certainty

 

[zephyr17]

so wait, is the strike off for December? Every news site I consult seems to weasel-word the results here and I crave certainty

You won't see it not in weasel words until the Senate vote is complete and in the books.

 

[Stremba]

so wait, is the strike off for December? Every news site I consult seems to weasel-word the results here and I crave certainty

The Senate vote is finished- 80-15 to pass. It just needs President Biden’s signature to take effect. I can’t imagine he will veto it

 

[Devil's Advocate]

so wait, is the strike off for December? Every news site I consult seems to weasel-word the results here and I crave certainty

It takes time to work through the specifics of legislation, and nobody is going to call it a done deal until the POTUS signs, but I would consider a December strike really unlikely at this point. It would require the president changing his mind, the unions striking without authorization, or emergency court action.

 

[zephyr17]

It takes time to work through the specifics of legislation, and nobody is going to call it a done deal until the POTUS signs, but I would consider a December strike really unlikely at this point. It would require the president changing his mind, the unions striking without authorization, or emergency court action.

Of the three, the only one that I think is at all realistic is the second, the unions striking without authorization. While I severely doubt the unions themselves would call an unauthorized strike (AFL-CIO officials have already spoken out reluctantly in favor of the imposed settlement), I don't put the possibility of wildcat strikes by members entirely out of the realm of possibility. From what I understand, many members are very understandably angry. However, I think it will be expressed in the form of continued resignations, not a wildcat strike. That will continue to squeeze an already tight staffing situation even further, and likely making the railroads, already short of staff, even more draconian, and causing a further vicious cycle.

 

[zetharion]

Well Congress came to the rescue of the railroads. Its nice for them to have that ace in their pocket for every contract dispute.

 

[BlackDiamond]

Of the three, the only one that I think is at all realistic is the second, the unions striking without authorization. While I severely doubt the unions themselves would call an unauthorized strike (AFL-CIO officials have already spoken out reluctantly in favor of the imposed settlement), I don't put the possibility of wildcat strikes by members entirely out of the realm of possibility. From what I understand, many members are very understandably angry. However, I think it will be expressed in the form of continued resignations, not a wildcat strike. That will continue to squeeze an already tight staffing situation even further, and likely making the railroads, already short of staff, even more draconian, and causing a further vicious cycle.

Yes, given that the workers are being forced back to work without the sick day provision that many of them considered vital to a settlement, that will leave a lot of disgruntlement, not a good situation. Perhaps besides a wildcat strike, we might see people "working to rule" or refusing to work overtime, that kind of thing that will tend to snarl things up and for Amtrak might result in more delays than we have already. In the UK, similar labor unrest has resulted in crews refusing to work their days off resulting in chaos in some Train Operating Companies (notably Avanti West Coast) as they have had to cancel trains sometimes at the last minute.

Mods- would it make sense to merge the two strike threads? I’m not sure how we ended up with two.

I think the other thread is focused on the strike itself and the effect on the freight railroads whereas this one is focused more on the effects of a strike on Amtrak, especially how it might affect those that have reservations on upcoming trips. Undoubtedly there will be some overlap.

 

[pennyk]

MODERATOR NOTE: Since the strike has been resolved and there is no current effect on Amtrak, this thread has been locked.
Thank you for your understanding, cooperation and participation.