Tracking FY 2024-25 Ridership and Finances

[Just-Thinking-51]

Maybe it's just me and the particular bubble that I live in, but from my perspective any Covid restrictions or fears are by now ancient history and people's behaviors and risk perceptions have largely bounced back to normal. If there is an ongoing upturn in demand for bedrooms and roomettes, it may have to do with people splurging money after having been prevented or discouraged from doing leisure travel for several years. I think you will find that casinos and other tourist destinations are experiencing a similar upturn.

People splurging money on leisure travel is dropping off after the post-Covid spike. With prices going much higher, the demand is softening. We’re back to the new normal of travels and work. Work from home is still with us, going on nice vacation are too. But no the spike is over.

 

[MARC Rider]

I think that commuting is recovering. Unfortunately, a lot more of it is being done by car, as I discovered this morning, driving around Suburban Washington.

The train to Washington was not empty, but not jam packed, either. The MARC crowd at Baltimore Penn was bigger than 2 years ago, but still less than in 2019. An Acela was boarding in Washington with a cattle line at the gate looking like the day's of yore. The Red Line Metro was reasonably well patronized up until Dupont Circle, but the train emptied out after that. This was about 8 AM, which should be the top of rush our. hour. On the other hand, the auto traffic in Montgomery County was very heavy. I suspect that there's still lingering reluctance to commute by transit because of Covid fears.

 

[Eric in East County]

Maybe it's just me and the particular bubble that I live in, but from my perspective any Covid restrictions or fears are by now ancient history and people's behaviors and risk perceptions have largely bounced back to normal.

Again, my belief that the high demand for bedrooms and roomettes is partially due to lingering concerns over “social distancing” stems from the fact that both my wife and I are seniors in their late 70s who don’t want to risk having our trips ruined as a result of being exposed to someone who is sick but who still chooses to travel. (If you refer back to the posts that appeared on AU during the height of the COVID crisis, you will see even healthy people who chose to ride Amtrak without first having received their COVID shots or who objected to having to wear masks being referred to as the worst kind of reprobates.)

 

[Septa9739]

Maybe it's just me and the particular bubble that I live in, but from my perspective any Covid restrictions or fears are by now ancient history and people's behaviors and risk perceptions have largely bounced back to normal. If there is an ongoing upturn in demand for bedrooms and roomettes, it may have to do with people splurging money after having been prevented or discouraged from doing leisure travel for several years. I think you will find that casinos and other tourist destinations are experiencing a similar upturn.

Again, my belief that the high demand for bedrooms and roomettes is partial due to lingering concerns over “social distancing” stems from the fact that both my wife and I are seniors in their late 70s who don’t want to risk having our trips ruined as a result of being exposed to someone who is sick but who still chooses to travel. (If you refer back to the posts that appeared on AU during the height of the COVID crisis, you will see even healthy people who chose to ride Amtrak without first having received their COVID shots or who objected to having to wear masks being referred to as the worst kind of reprobates.)

I think both of these premises re COVID may be true. Amtrak’s inventories are so small, only a small handful of people, who would likely be “more established” would need to remain concerned to keep demand tight and prices high. On the other hand, there are more reports of people picking up great last minute sleeper fares, suggesting the Amtrak may need to start “normalizing” rates.

 

[JP1822]

Revenues only grow with good ridership and increased capacity - Graham Claytor's motto. Amtrak continues with a constrained capacity with its LD trains - coach and sleeper class. The trains that haven't recovered as much (e.g. Capitol Limited, Cardinal, etc.) are at the bottom of the barrel with their consist size. To compensate for a largely 3 to 4 total passenger car Capitol Limited in summer of 2023, the Lake Shore Limited carried FOUR Viewliner Sleepers - something that it hasn't seen in years! Hence the numbers were up!

The Lake Shore Limited had a third New York Sleeper in the summer of 2023 and its head-end Boston Viewliner sleeper - that's four sleepers altogether. Auto Train has up to 9 Superliner Sleepers alone, plus its coaches. Both trains had a descent amount of coaches.

The Empire Builder always seems to do "well" but if it had its second Seattle coach, second Seattle sleeper, and even second Portland sleeper restored most of the year, it would have edged up further in ridership - by a lot. The Coast Starlight is even anemic due to its reduction outside of summer season to just two sleepers. Compare to when it had three to four Superliner sleepers, plus the Superliner trans-dorm Sleeper.

There are so many relationships and contexts for the presentation of the raw numbers Amtrak puts forward. But the context is typically lacking, and that could be dangerous to some stakeholders and readers.

Moreover, I am sure that the Auto Train receives more favorable cost accounting treatment for essentially being an "express" train between Lorton and Sanford, with no intermediate stops. It's rear-end auto cargo also helps. If Amtrak added a prestige class of service (e.g. extra Superliner Sleepers with increased price for a higher level of service) it too would have a different ridership and financial outcome.

Amtrak needs recovery to its fleet capacity (e.g. more cars in service and operating in overnight LD consists) as well as some creative thinking to how it operates long distance trains - both in potential service offerings to customers (e.g. a prestige class - even European trains are adopting this model), its cost accounting methodology, and its train ops staffing. Amtrak should also do an analysis that looks at consists of trains before the pandemic and FY2023, alongside ridership and financial numbers. Shrinking consists, yet Amtrak jacked up the prices. That story got lost in the shuffle for sure!

 

[Eric in East County]

Revenues only grow with good ridership and increased capacity - Graham Claytor's motto. Amtrak continues with a constrained capacity with its LD trains - coach and sleeper class.

Amtrak needs recovery to its fleet capacity (e.g. more cars in service and operating in overnight LD consists) as well as some creative thinking to how it operates long distance trains -

I agree with this totally. A best effort should be made to increase the number of roadworthy coaches and sleepers so that there will be enough on hand to accommodate the demand on any given day by adjusting the number of coaches and sleepers in the consist. This will also entail increasing the number of qualified personnel to staff the extra coaches and sleepers on heavy travel days.

 

[Eric in East County]

Two questions:

How far in advance should the average person call Amtrak to be sure of obtaining the long-distance train accommodations they want on the date(s) they want to travel?

How far in advance does the average person usually make and pay for their travel arrangements once they’ve decided when they want to travel?

Last July, we called Amtrak to book east and west bound bedrooms on the Southwest Chief for September, and nothing was available for the dates we wanted. Nor was anything available for the fallback dates we’d considered in October. Ordinarily we make our reservations 11 months in advance, but the September trip was sort of a last-minute “why don’t we take a second trip this year” sort of thing that we came up while returning from our first trip. (We chose September on the assumption that fewer people would be traveling and that our chances of obtaining bedrooms would be better than average.)

Apparently 2-3 months is too short a time to be sure of obtaining sleeping car accommodations for the dates you want. If this could be shortened, it would certainly have a positive impact on ridership.

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

Apparently 2-3 months is too short a time to be sure of obtaining sleeping car accommodations for the dates you want. If this could be shortened, it would certainly have a positive impact on ridership.

Agree, but it’s highly dependent on the train, time of year, and the actual date of travel.

While I just came back from lunch in Chicago, the tickets were booked a day early and was midweek on the LSL. So capacity might be there, helps to have “two sections” and getting on a station that not a major west bound generator.

 

[Septa9739]

The March Monthly Performance Report is out. Again these are monthly, not YTD figures.

The following four routes are between 95%-100% of March 2019 ridership (Note this month begins comparison with 2019 figures to better follow the twelve months pre-COVID).

Six routes are between 95 and 100%.

Acela Express 96% (283,700), best recovery since December

1. Downeaster 99% (46,500) In line with previous months
2. Lincoln Service 98% (58,400)
3. Wolverine 96% (38,300) best recovery since September
4. Adirondack 99% (8,300) remarkable given circumstances
5. Silver Star 96% (33,900)

The following are less

Keystone Service 86% (115,100) best recovery since December

1. Wolverines 88% (38,300)
2. IL Zephyr 79% (13,400)
3. PacSurf 65% (149,100) In line with other months not affected by rockslides
4. Capitol Corridor 57% (86,300) This corridor is a mess (again).
5. San Joaquin 86% (77,800) no change
6. Blue Water 89% a considerable slip
7. Cardinal 87%
8. Silver Meteor 90%
9. Southwest Chief 84%
10. Sunset Limited 83%
11. Coast Starlight 93%

The system showed robust strength in March. While the number of trains with less than full monthly recovery increased from 14 to 18, note that only 2 routes in the whole system show recovery below 80% this month. That is remarkable. The Cascades beat the 2019 number by about 13,000 or 20%. All Chicago area corridors improved, particularly the Lincoln Service and Wolverine. The Il Zephyr continues to be among the worst in system. The NER continues to surge (124% March 2019 ridership, the same as February, tying for the best percentage gain of the year). Acela rose. The Southeast is still surging. California is still very soft. Only the Capitol Corridor carried a fewer number of passengers in March 2024 than March 2023 in absolute terms. This month the Capitol Limited exceeded its March 2019 ridership, the first full monthly recovery for that route. Systemwide ridership YTD is about 300,000 above this point in 2019, largely carried by insane growth on the NER and an LD system hitting above its weight. State supported routes are lagging due to the roughly quarter million missing riders in California this month.

 

[west point]

You probably do not know but for each of these figures what was the train capacity or in the case of multiple trains on a route the total seat capacity? I do believe the Meteor had more capacity in 2019??

 

[BlackDiamond]

Thanks for researching and posting these numbers. I notice you have Wolverine in there twice, at 96% and at 88%.

 

[TransitTyrant]

Gonna be tough for the Wolverine to break 2019 levels when they keep cancelling 2 of the runs in the summer.

 

[Septa9739]

Thanks for researching and posting these numbers. I notice you have Wolverine in there twice, at 96% and at 88%.

Mea culpa. 96% is correct. Good catch.

You probably do not know but for each of these figures what was the train capacity or in the case of multiple trains on a route the total seat capacity? I do believe the Meteor had more capacity in 2019??

YTD Total seat miles 2024: Star 132.4, Meteor 122.9.

2019 was the apex of the Anderson anti-accountability age.

 

[OmahaRoad]

Thanks once again for the excellent, informative, and very interesting report, @Septa9739 ! I always look forward to your analysis.

 

[Septa9739]

https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101905729/in-transit-amtraks-future-in-california

An interesting local podcast on the problems surrounding ridership and ways to increase it. I don’t fully endorse everything in it, but it is interesting nonetheless

 

[Septa9739]

The April Monthly Performance Report has been out for a little while. Again these are monthly, not YTD figures. The following routes are between 95%-100% of April 2019 ridership (NB: this month begins comparison with 2019 figures to better follow the twelve months pre-COVID).

Three routes are between 95 and 100%.

Pere Marquette 95% (7,400)
Empire Builder 99% (28,800)
CONO 99% (19,000)

The following twenty are less

• Acela Express 88% (284,500) ridership flat, 8 percentage point slip
• Keystone Service 86% (117,000) steady
• Lincoln Service 93% (48,600) a slight slip in actual numbers and percentage points
• Hiawatha 75% (53,900) ugh
• Wolverines 86% (33,600) akin to Lincoln
• IL Zephyr 72% (10,900) “
• PacSurf 62% (140,600) In line with other months not affected by rockslides
• Capitol Corridor 56% (87,400) This corridor is a mess (again, still, please fix, help).
• San Joaquin 75% (71,900) no change, around 10% drop
• Adirondack 86% (7,000) nice while it lasted
• Blue Water 85% (12,000) steady after a considerable slip
• Silver Star 87% (29,900) first number less than 90% all year
• Cardinal 76% (7,300) heavy drop along with the next four
• Silver Meteor 79% (23,200)
• Capitol Limited 77% (13,700)
• California Zephyr 92% (25,900)
• Southwest Chief 75% (18,800)
• Sunset Limited 85% (6,600) a rare increase in recovery vs. March
• Coast Starlight 84% (29,200) ridership steady, percent drop
• Crescent 90% (23,900) a first appearance on this list this year

This was kind of an ugly report. The number of trains with less than full monthly recovery increased from 18 to 23 (up five over March and nine over February). Only seven routes made a percentage gain over last month: Empire West, Downeaster, Springfield Shuttle, Illini/Saluki, Heartland Flyer, Sunset Limited, Lakeshore Limited. With the exception of the Sunset, these have been workhorses all year. 11 routes are down versus April 2023: Lincoln Service, Hiawatha, Wolverine, Capitol Corridor, San Joaquin, Blue Water, Silver Star, Cardinal, Silver Meteor, Southwest Chief, and Crescent. None of these are real surprises. Even Virginia and North Carolina, while still eking out records, showed significantly slowing growth. Bright spots include the NER, crossing 6,000,000 passengers YTD in April, month 7 of the fiscal year. This is a first so far as I can tell. 12,000,000 passengers on the year is not out of the question. The Cascades beat 2019, by about 12,000 this month, continuing to be robust.

So it wasn’t all bad this month. The sudden weakening of the LD sector is concerning and unexpected, but may still be a fluke. Next month, we will welcome the first monthly record for the Borealis, an exciting prospect. Hopefully, the brutal gas prices this MDW will at least have generated some ridership strength. We may even know by the end of this week.

 

[ascii42]

Misread

 

[lrh442]

I don't know how we'd get at this info, but it would be fascinating to see how much of the ridership losses can be attributed to reduced capacity.

 

[zephyr17]

I don't know how we'd get at this info, but it would be fascinating to see how much of the ridership losses can be attributed to reduced capacity.

Well, just from observing the consists, the Builder (99% of 2019) is finally back to pre-COVID capacity, transdorm, two sleepers and two coaches on the Seattle section. But the Starlight is not (84% of 2019), still missing a sleeper and a coach (maybe two) from its former peak season consist, which had included a transdorm, 3 sleepers and at least 3 coaches.

 

[Septa9739]

It’s impossible to know for sure. A lot of the five year likely is. The losses vs last year would be difficult to attribute to equipment, as equipment shortages have eased in 2024. The best thing to do is probably look for proportionality between seat miles and passenger miles, but Amtrak doesn’t always publicly report both, so data is an issue.

 

[thefirewarde]

Gonna be tough for the Wolverine to break 2019 levels when they keep cancelling 2 of the runs in the summer.

Agreed, but once the track work wraps up for good, ridership should jump from the better schedule.

 

[Willbridge]

Also too early to tell, but the Fed's drag on the economy might be affecting the vacation travel market. Gas prices are supposed to go up at this time of year and are not.

 

[Septa9739]

The May Monthly Performance Report has been out for a little while. Again these are monthly, not YTD figures. The following routes are between 95%-100% of April 2019 ridership (NB: this month begins comparison with 2019 figures to better follow the twelve months pre-COVID).

Three routes are between 95 and 100%.

Lincoln Service 96% (51,000) rebounding
Silver Star 97% (33,300) rebounding
Empire Builder 96% (32,800) flat

The following nineteen are less

1. Acela Express 83% (276,400) ridership flat, 5 percentage point slip after an 8 percentage point slip last month.
2. Keystone Service 80% (110,500) down, possibly construction (possibly affecting 2,000/month)
3. Hiawatha 77% (57,200) flat
4. Wolverines 79% (33,333) major construction
5. IL Zephyr 78% (12,900) a slight bump
6. PacSurf 78% (181,500) Best performance in over a year
7. Capitol Corridor 60% (94,600) Second worse to the truncated Adirondack
8. VIII.San Joaquin 82% (78,200) fairly average
9. Adirondack 45% (3,900) “construction”
10. Blue Water 89% (13,800) still steady after a considerable slip
11. Cardinal 76% (8,100) steady after a heavy drop
12. Silver Meteor 85% (26,100) very volatile month to month
13. XIII.Capitol Limited 76% (15,600) best ridership in years, percentage leaves to be desired
14. XIV.California Zephyr 85% (28,700)
15. Southwest Chief 79% (23,200)
16. XVI.Texas Eagle 91% (26,200) a first appearance
17. XVII.Sunset Limited 76% (6,600) a slip
18. XVIII.Coast Starlight 91% (33,900) clawing back
19. XIX.Palmetto 93% (30,300) a first appearance

This was a mediocre report. The number of trains with less than full monthly recovery decreased from 23 to 22 (February was good for about 10). Most trains made a narrow percentage gain month over month, or have ridership above 2019 levels. 6 routes are down versus May 2019: Wolverine, Adirondack, Blue Water, Meteor, Chief, and Sunset. The Keystone, Adirondack, and Wolverine (at least) are suffering major construction adjustments. The Sunset and Adirondack are newly down year over year, the rest are in their second straight. Virginia and North Carolina perked back up. Bright spots include the NER, crossing 7,000,000 passengers YTD in May, month 8 of the fiscal year. This is a first so far as I can tell. 12,000,000 passengers on the year is still not out of the question. NER ridership is up about 175,000 comparing May 2023 to May 2024. The Acela, however, was soft, and I suspect is having a hard time commanding lucrative fares. The Vermonter and Ethan Allen show growth over last year, indicating records are being made to fall. The Pacific Surfliner posted its best ridership in a long time. The rest of California hasn’t changed much. The Borealis set its first monthly record at a very respectable 6,600 on a week and a half’s ridership. Long distance is a mixed bag. The Chief is a little concerning. It’s slid hard the last 2 months.

Does anyone know if there’s an issue with the Blue Water, it was flying high and has come down lately?

We’ll have to see what’s in store for June.

 

[zephyr17]

Builder finally got its full consist back in May, so that makes sense.

 

[thefirewarde]

Notably the Empire Builder suddenly isn't the only game in town on much more of its corridor - the Borealis didn't have enough time to do much but may have dropped the EB by a thousand or more riders this month. If we see a bit of a drop next month, I wouldn't be surprised. I also think the ridership along the EB + Borealis corridor overall will be up substantially by year's end