Neroden let us start putting together a concrete short write up
that we can either send directly to Boardman, possibly via Brian G.
Also maybe we can get NARP on board. Perhaps Anderson and
Charlie can work that angle.
But first a few of us need to have something concrete that we are all
comfortable standing behind and pushing.
Yeah. I'm super super busy for the next few months. Please feel free to rip off anything I've already written if it's useful though.
I was impressed by the spreadsheet analysis of potential
sleeper revenue that you guys did a couple of weeks back.
I'm not sure how many sleepers I can make a good case for, because a lot of the input numbers are guesses with wide variance. I get really strong numbers when I base them on the numbers from the LSL, but I tend to look at the LSL for reasons of personal bias.
For a worse case, I have been doing estimates on the Cardinal's extra sleeper each month (with the usual wild variance)... and at the moment it looks like the extra sleeper is only roughly break-even, maybe less. (It's more expensive to run the attendants for a Cardinal sleeper than for an LSL sleeper, due to the longer runtime.) But it's hard to tell because we've only seen it during relatively weak months so far; one can't really tell until it's been a full year.
I know I can make a good case for more sleepers, I'm just not sure how to make a case for a specific number of sleepers.
For the dining cars, the case is very simple and the number is 5. Feel free to reuse any of this.
----
Why Amtrak Should Order 5 More Viewliner II Dining Cars
* There will probably not be another opportunity to make a large order of single-level dining cars during the 40-year lifespan of the Viewliner IIs.
* There will probably be no other companies ordering single-level FRA-compliant dining cars over this period, so future "add-on" orders are impossible.
* A small order of dining cars is never cost-effective. So this is the only opportunity to order "just a few more cars".
* Over the 40-year lifespan of the Viewliner IIs, some of the dining cars will most likely get into wrecks and be destroyed.
* There are several routes which do not currently have a single-level dining car but which might plausibly need one in the next 40 years: a daily Cardinal (3 cars); a restored Silver Palm (4); a single-level Capitol Limited (3); a restored Broadway Limited (3). There are other possibilities such as an additional frequency on the Lake Shore Limited. While most of these will not happen, it is likely that one or two of them will.
* When considering Amtrak's preferred shop count of 20%, the current total of 26 Viewliner diners can only support roughly 21 cars in active service daily. When considering desired protect cars (one at each of four terminals), this number drops even lower, to roughly 17.
* Fifteen are in use daily right now. The additional 2 are not even enough to handle even a daily Cardinal without cutting into the shop count, and it is perfectly likely that there will be more than 2 wrecks in the next 40 years.
* In order to support the potential future dining car routes and potential losses to wrecks over the next 40 years,
Amtrak should order 5 more dining cars; this would cover two expansions, or one expansion and a number of wrecks.
* This should be considered an insurance policy, and it has "option value". For roughly $10 million dollars, Amtrak insures against the lost business due to dining car wrecks for 40 years, and has an option for 40 years to expand dining car service where commercially appropriate.
* Current dining car economics should not be counted against this. Even if the method of operation changes substantially, a car with this physical configuration will remain highly useful for the long-duration trains to New York City.
They should be purchased now while they can be purchased economically. $10 million now to avoid problems for 40 years is well worth it. Amtrak has had many problems in the past due to shortages of specific types of car; it is well worth it to prevent this preemptively.
----
That's as concise as I can make it. If someone can boil it down further, great.
