Why Such High Prices for The Silvers in February 2022?

[Oreius]

I'm looking to go to Disney World (again) next February-March. Going down, the prices for the Silvers are astronomical: $1400 or 50K Points for a Bedroom and $500 or 17K Points for a Roomette. I'm waiting until March opens up to see if I can just ride back home. Any reason? I paid 31K points for my Bedroom this past February and also coming up in September.

 

[zephyr17]

Amtrak has gotten a lot more sophisticated in their yield management in the last few years. The old rule of thumb that inventory comes into the reservation system initially 11 months out at low/lower buckets no longer applies.

They appear to initially price inventory on the high-ish end based on anticipated, historic demand for a given period then adjust as those dates get closer and actual demand develops. February would seem a relatively high demand period for Northeast-Florida travel to me. I am a lifelong West Coaster, so that is a guess, plus personally you could not pay me to go to Florida in the summer. So higher buckets 11 months out makes perfect sense to me.

The sweet spot for pricing now seems to be 4-6 months out, depending on travel season and train. For the Silvers in February, my guess is that would closer to 6 months than 4, but that's only a guess, since they are not trains I travel on with any regularity and I have no "feel" for them.

The death of Amsnag makes research more difficult, unfortunately.

 

[Sidney]

The Silvers are the most overpriced trains. Two days,one night,the substandard flexible dining. Low bucket for one person roomette from the Northeast to Florida is $450 to $475.

 

[jis]

The Silvers are the most overpriced trains. Two days,one night,the substandard flexible dining. Low bucket for one person roomette from the Northeast to Florida is $450 to $475.

I think that honor goes to the Lake Shore Limited which has a much shorter run than the Silvers and still has a higher fare in general.

 

[niemi24s]

I think that honor goes to the Lake Shore Limited which has a much shorter run than the Silvers and still has a higher fare in general.

Based solely on route miles and low bucket Roomette fare, The LSL and CL are tied for the highest cost (in rounded cents) per mile. Here's the info for all the LD routes (except the LSL to BOS and the EB to PDX):

CL = 41
LSL = 41
SM = 35
CONO = 34
CARD = 34
SS = 33
CS = 31
SL = 25
EB = 24
CZ = 23
SWC = 23
TE = 19

The "in general" implies one train has higher buckets offered more often than the other. I'll leave that up for either speculation or hours of Arrow searches (as many as 660 of them) to see which is the real winner.

 

[Sidney]

The CONO has a $302 low bucket one person senior roomette fare from Chi- Nol. The Lake Shore is $380 NY-Chi,The Capitol Ltd is $306;Was-Chi, the Texas Eagle is $416 Chi-Sas,The Cardinal is $380 NY-Chi,The Coast Starlight is $416 Lax-Sea,The Crescent is $456 Ny-Nol
and the Silver trains are $471 NY-Mia..the two day one overnight trains. The TE and CS will(hopefully)return to traditional dining in late May,automatically making those trains a better value.

 

[jis]

Have you compared the distance traveled in each case? @niemi24s is talking about per mile cost. Of course the cost for traveling longer distance is higher. The Western trains can be found with even higher total fares.

 

[Sidney]

Those were the low buckets for the one overnight trains,regardless of distance from the furthest end points ranging from $302 for the CONO to $471 for the SS and the SM. Basically,just a guide.

 

[Oreius]

I paid 49K points for a Bedroom on the Starlight in September for my parents. Seems to me the Starlight is more bang for the buck, given that it’s 35 hours as opposed to 22-23 on the Silvers.

 

[Sidney]

In addition,as of late May traditional.dining returns to the CS. The CS is a one overnight train,yet all the Eastern trains are still stuck with flex dining. When paying $450 plus for a roomette you would expect first class food

 

[Sauve850]

Ive taken Silvers back home from DC to Florida for a very long time. Sleeper prices have always been in the high range. Several weeks ago I was trying to see if I could start in Seattle to Chicago early September. Found $885 or very close to that for a bedroom on the EB but didnt work with my schedule. Two years ago (late August) I did Sea to Chi in a bedroom for about $785 I think. That was a great price.

 

[dlagrua]

Just priced a CHI to FLG trip on the SW Chief for an early August trip. A bedroom with 2 adults is priced at $2208 ONE way. This pricing is insane. We will not pay those prices for a one overnight trip and will reluctantly fly. IMO, the prices are so high to discourage anyone from buying those fares. Then management could say "see we told you so, no one rides the long distance routes anymore" Then they go back to Congress with a plan to cancel the sleeper service and/or the route. We will wait it out to see if prices drop but at this point Amtrak may leave passengers with little choice than to take alternate transportation. This pricing is higher than first class air. Amtrak is pricing itself out of the LD transportation market.

 

[PVD]

What matters more than the high or low price is what the overall yield is... if the other bedrooms have already sold, and there are only a couple left and it is this early (5 months out) someone might just buy it....closer to departure if still unsold that might be a call to cut the price to sell the space...since we don't know what the others sold for, and what the track record is for selling out the bedrooms, it may be ugly, but could be good business...

 

[MARC Rider]

Just priced a CHI to FLG trip on the SW Chief for an early August trip. A bedroom with 2 adults is priced at $2208 ONE way. This pricing is insane. We will not pay those prices for a one overnight trip and will reluctantly fly. IMO, the prices are so high to discourage anyone from buying those fares. Then management could say "see we told you so, no one rides the long distance routes anymore" Then they go back to Congress with a plan to cancel the sleeper service and/or the route. We will wait it out to see if prices drop but at this point Amtrak may leave passengers with little choice than to take alternate transportation. This pricing is higher than first class air. Amtrak is pricing itself out of the LD transportation market.

As someone posted earlier, wait a while. The prices may indeed come down. Amtrak is not going to act like a 1960s era private railroad. The private RRs wanted to dump their passenger rail service altogether because it wasn't profitable enough for them. Even services that paid for themselves didn't make enough to satisfy the greed of the corporate overlords who operate under an imperative to maximize net corporate earnings, minimize "profits," and divert a large part of that money to well-positioned executives and well-connected shareholders. Also, in the 1960's I wouldn't be surprised if some of those running the railroads wanted to get out of the railroad business altogether, they saw no future in that transportation mode But they did see that they owned a lot of valuable real estate in small and large cities across the country, and lots of money could be made in real estate development, if only they could get rid of those pesky noisy, smoky and smelly trains. So, of course, the private RRs in the 1960 pulled all sorts of dastardly stunts to discourage people from riding the trains to justify their discontinuing them. They also pulled stunts to depress freight traffic as well.

But Amtrak is a whole different kind of business from the private RRs. It's owned by the government, and its purpose is to provide passenger rail service. It clearly has political support from Congress, as even when the Trump Administration wanted to zero it out with a Republican Congress, that Republican Congress kept funding it (at inadequate levels, admittedly.) Nobody running Amtrak is going to get rich getting rid of trains and selling the stations to developers. Also, the country has changed, passenger rail is more popular, and Amtrak can actually make money developing the stations with the trains still running out of them. In fact train service is now considered an amenity for developers. This is the basis of Brightline's entire business model, although it will be interesting to see whether they think operating the train service is lucrative enough for them after they build everything out and make their big $$$$ from the development. For those who think that Amtrak wants to eliminate long distance service, that's probably not going to happen. Congress keeps giving them a line item to continue it. It's an important part of the political deal that ensures continued support in Congress -- the Members from the urban state support long distance trains that benefit mostly rural populations by providing mobility for those who cant or won't drive, and Members from the rural states support funding for corridor service in return. I think that former CEO Anderson's problem was that he didn't understand this essential political calculus, and while he thought, rightly, that Amtrak's main contribution to the nation transportation mix should be corridor service, the long distance trains also have an important role to play in ensuring political support for the corridor service.

If that's the case, then the long-distance trains need the premium sleeper service, and possibly long-distance business class, too, to help support the bottom line of the long distance service. I think the last thing that Amtrak management wants to do is drop that. Of course, the cost of providing the sleeper service can't be so high that Amtrak isn't making any net revenue from it. Given Amtrak's opaque accounting, it's entirely possible that not even Amtrak management knows the true costs of providing premium service. Until we get a better look at the real costs, we don't know for sure whether the fares are inordinately high for the service level offered. Yeah, $1,100 per person for a one way trip from Chicago to Florida is high,, but who knows, there may be enough people willing to pay it to optimize the financial yield for the trains, thus keeping them running.

 

[Sidney]

$2208 from Chi to Flg is insane. Who the hell would pay that kind of money for that trip? Some people will,obviously. Have you considered two roomettes? It might be cheaper.

 

[Cal]

Sigh, let’s really hope Flynn changes some of this...

 

[niemi24s]

Here's an Elmer Fudd analysis.

When the AT, LSL to BOS and EB to PDX are added to the list in Post #5, the average cost of the...

• East Coast trains with flex dining is 36¢ per mile
• West Coast trains with (soon) traditional dining is 24¢ per mile

One can only conclude that flex dining carries a 50% surcharge on the East Coast trains.

 

[Oreius]

What I could do is book a Roomette and hope I get in one of the Viewliner 2s. These Roomettes have no potty, but would a bit roomier. I’m going on a three week European vacation in 2022, so this would likely be my only overnight train trip for the year.

 

[IndyLions]

What I could do is book a Roomette and hope I get in one of the Viewliner 2s. These Roomettes have no potty, but would a bit roomier. I’m going on a three week European vacation in 2022, so this would likely be my only overnight train trip for the year.

You can increase your odds significantly by calling the hotline and requesting a roomette in the '12" car.

There's always the risk that Amtrak changes their approach, and that 9712/9812 is no longer a VLII - but in the short term that risk is pretty low.

 

[west point]

The whole sleeper situation will be subject to demand and supply once all trains go back to daily service. Any speculation now is almost just that speculation.
If I would make just a wild guess this is what I see for single level service sleepers only beginning this summer. As V-2s become Passenger ready more sleepers may be allocated ?
Running totals
1. Silver --- Star 2 V-1s and 1 V-2 8-V-1 4- V2
2. Silver --- Meteor 2 v-1s and 2 v-2s 8-V1 8-V-2
3. LSL --- NYP-6V1 BOS 4v1- 10-V1 BOS requires 1 extra
4. Cardinal 4-V1
5. Crescent 12-V1
6. Night owl 2-V1

Total 44-V1 12-V2
Spares WASH-1, SSY-1, MIA-1 3-V1 ??
Maintenance 3-V1 ??

I only considered 12 V2s as Amtrak has not signified how many are revenue passenger ready. Only 4 now used on the 7 day Silvers, More will be needed once Silver trains become daily in June.

The additional funds from government may allow for Amtrak to pay for Atlanta cutoff sleepers. That would require at least 2 sleepers off at Atlanta for a total of 14 required on Crescent. That will only be possible if more V-2s can switch onto Silvers freeing up 2 V-1s.

If passenger demand is different then this is only a paper exercise. So only take it as such. If Cardinal goes daily once Virginia take title to the BBr RR then Cardinal needs will change this speculation.

 

[jis]

Recently I have seen a few Silvers run with 2 V2s and 1 V1. It varies, but they seem to have at least V2 and at least 1 V1 of late.

 

[neroden]

I think that honor goes to the Lake Shore Limited which has a much shorter run than the Silvers and still has a higher fare in general.

High demand, low supply. I've said for years it needs a second frequency, running in the day through Ohio and at night from Syracuse to NYC.

 

[neroden]

3. LSL --- NYP-6V1 BOS 4v1- 10-V1 BOS requires 1 extra

As a frequent LSL traveller, I can say that pre-Covid, Boston rarely filled its one sleeper per train and NY almost always filled both its sleepers. So now that VIIs exist, the NY section needs either another sleeper or a bag-dorm. Given the nosebleed prices on the LSL and the high baggage loads during holiday periods, I'd say a third full NY sleeper is justified.

....unless they operate a second NY-Buffalo-Chicago train instead and put the sleeper on that ;-)

 

[Oreius]

I was checking fares for early March 2022, and the prices are still outrageously high. I’m wondering if Amtrak is predicting a boom in travel...

 

[Amtrakfflyer]

Or trying to artificially suppress demand. Either way there has to be a better way to market the trains.