I think this could well be the death knell for the Adirondack as we now know it.
A situation where service becomes routinely unreliable every summer is unsustainable. It is slow (though scenic) to begin with, becoming wholly unreliable will drive off what ridership there is.
That is the current situation due to CN's level of maintenance on the line, which they have zero reason to change. Regardless of our opinions on the "heat" issue, which I agree does reek of BS, it is CN's railroad and they determine the level of maintenance and speed restrictions. Amtrak and New York State can like it or lump it, they have zero leverage north of the border.
Something must be done or the Adirondack is dead. The province of Quebec seems wholly uninterested, as does the Canadian Federal Government. The only options I realistically see are:
- New York State somehow gets around restrictions about spending money in Canada and pays CN for some rehabbing of the line and perhaps ongoing maintenance to a level that is needed to support reliable operation of the Adirondack, which is greater than CN's own needs for the line. I do not rule out that this might be CN's game plan, either get someone else to pay for improvements or be rid of the train. They'd be happy either way, but probably happier if it were gone. As I have said before, Washington managed to fund BNSF capital improvements in BC for the Cascades, so it is at least conceivable.
- Shift to CP and Lucien L'Allier. I personally do not think moving to Lucien L'Allier is a deal breaker, and the consensus here seems to be it's doable. However, CP needs to be willing to take it. What has not really been discussed here would be whether CP would be willing. CP seems pretty allergic to passenger operations in Canada. Amtrak doesn't have the legal right to force it as they ultimately do in the US. Canada does not seem to have the legal framework to force it. CP might be willing to go along to maintain good relations with Amtrak in the US in the bigger picture, but who knows? They also have the ability to tell Amtrak to go pound sand and make it stick, too.
At this point I am not optimistic. I was a bit surprised when the Adirondack returned due to the track maintenance issue. The fact it turned into a real problem 3 months after resumption is a very bad omen. To anyone who has not ridden it and wants to (I personally recommend it), do it when it becomes unsuspended, if you can. Myself, I don't give it more than a 50/50 chance of survival and that's being generous.