As someone who spent almost 20 years riding a commuter train that did 120 mph, I can attest that there's not much experiential difference between going 120 mph and doing 80 mph, except that you arrive earlier. When I ride the Acela, the only way I know we're doing 150 mph is by checking my GPS speedometer app. The view flashing by looks pretty much the same at all reasonably high speeds. When I notice speed, it's when we're creeping along at 30 or 40 mph when we should be doing 70, 80, 125, or 150.
Brightline Trains Florida discussion 2024
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Cal H
Train Attendant
I’ve rode a few trains, but I’ve never even approached a triple digit speed. I hope to ride the Acela, I hope to ride Briteline - just for the experience of it.
If I purposefully went out of my way and bought a ticket for either one I would be very disappointed if I couldn’t see out the windows. Without the full effect I may as well watch a youtube video…
If I purposefully went out of my way and bought a ticket for either one I would be very disappointed if I couldn’t see out the windows. Without the full effect I may as well watch a youtube video…
Its noticeable on a bullet train in Japan. Or high speed trains in Europe.
I think the scenery is pretty nice.
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crescent-zephyr
Engineer
- Joined
- Oct 21, 2015
- Messages
- 4,764
Yeah.. everyone acts like Amtrak is the problem but I saw an on-board Brightline Employee (not sure what his title / position was) scold passengers for not knowing which door would not open at a stop. There had been no announcement about which doors open so there was no way for them to know.
I'm so glad a manager was able to listen to you and help you - the agent that called security needs to be fired. She shouldn't be working in customer service.
I hope you still have an enjoyable train ride - Brightline Trains are pretty fun to ride.
Overall Brightline did well. The onboard service both ways was good. The southbound train ahead of my train hit a car at a grade crossing. They asked all the passengers to lower the shades so we could not see the accident as we passed by. I agree with this approach. The scene would be traumatic for most to see.
My southbound train picked up the passengers waiting for the other train. They had to stand. But that was better than leaving them stranded.
We were delayed about 30 minutes. I consider this a good performance.
My southbound train picked up the passengers waiting for the other train. They had to stand. But that was better than leaving them stranded.
We were delayed about 30 minutes. I consider this a good performance.
I’d be a little surprised if this request did not receive the opposite effect desired.
Anybody driving past a bad wreck on the other side of a divided highway knows what happens to traffic…
When you can't read the signs as you go past a station ( to know where you are) then you know you are going fast. Other than that I agree you need a GPS.
MikefromCrete
Engineer
I agree. People can't stop watching an accident site. I doubt if rolling past a train-car crash would traumatize most people.I’d be a little surprised if this request did not receive the opposite effect desired.
Anybody driving past a bad wreck on the other side of a divided highway knows what happens to traffic…
I had my headphones at the time and had not heard the PA. The attendant got my attention and told me to lower my shade. I explained I was looking out the window. Then I saw the other shades down and figured out what was happening. I lowered my shade. I heard a few gasps as we rolled by. I had my shade down, but I could see the emergency vehicles.
Briteline sent me a 22 dollar voucher for the 30 minutes delay this morning. I have to use it by November 24. I won't be back in time to use it. But I really did not think any compensation was in order since this was not Brighlines fault.
Briteline sent me a 22 dollar voucher for the 30 minutes delay this morning. I have to use it by November 24. I won't be back in time to use it. But I really did not think any compensation was in order since this was not Brighlines fault.
That wouldn't work if you were riding in an Amfleet 1 coach. They have no shades or curtains.
Doubt Amtrak crew would make a similar request, even if they did have shades…
Coming in a bit late...
Do consider that Brightline's operating cost recovery rate has risen from about 33% in the prior year to 56% this year, and that's with a serious equipment shortage ("only" four cars vs the 7 they expect to have down the line).
Leaving this here on the Brightline 2024 thread rather on trip reports. Had my first Brightline trip yesterday, 8/21/24. They had been offering deep discounts a month or so beforehand so I finally bit. Had 'Smart' Class southbound from Orlando, with 'Premium' Class on the return from Miami. Service was on-time both ways. and the whole operation seems well-planned and well-executed. Staff seemed well trained and pleasant.
I have to say that the seats aren't NEARLY as comfortable as Amtrak. Next trip I may bring a cushion for these 75-year-old bones.
We did go into heavy braking once on the way down. Not sure where it was, possibly in the vicinity of Stuart. A PA announcement was made that we nearly hit a vehicle at a crossing, with apologies for the sudden decel. I had to grab my phone and camera on the table to keep them from launching. The smell of hot brakes (familiar from Amtrak trips) was pronounced for several minutes, and the actual decel rate was REALLY impressive. Fortunately there was no collision.
I utilized the Premium Lounge at Miami, nice but not that impressive. Munchies were unimpressive, bottled water and, soft drinks were in self-serve glass-front refrigerators, and there was wine on tap (I didn't try that since alcohol is a migraine trigger for me).
The ride was overall much better than on most AMTRAK trips, probably courtesy of the FEC roadbed and concrete ties and all the money they've poured into making it uniform and in good repair. There were perhaps a dozen brief noticeable bad spots including a couple of really strong sideways jolts that I hope FEC or Brightline addresses. We went through what were brief slow-orders a couple of times. I was impressed at how frequently the speed was adjusted all the way down and back. They are apparently really trying hard to stay on-time.
I did run the cellphone speed app several times to monitor the speed, and seeing 125 mph was impressive (for the U.S.....). I also ran a mapping app that uses pre-downloaded maps so it doesn't require net data, and it was interesting to watch our progress. It also allowed me to have the Nikon ready when we crossed waterways or had other large towns that might provide photo opps.
I was pleased to see a high pax load WPB-MIA both ways and a decent pax load on the leg from and to ORL. Maybe they'll actually make this work. I hope so.
I still shake my head at the locations along the way where there are multi-road traffic circles that the track literally bisects. If there is a better way to snarl traffic on several roads at once many times a day in those cities I can't think of it.
Overall, very impressed with everything but the seat comfort.
I have to say that the seats aren't NEARLY as comfortable as Amtrak. Next trip I may bring a cushion for these 75-year-old bones.
We did go into heavy braking once on the way down. Not sure where it was, possibly in the vicinity of Stuart. A PA announcement was made that we nearly hit a vehicle at a crossing, with apologies for the sudden decel. I had to grab my phone and camera on the table to keep them from launching. The smell of hot brakes (familiar from Amtrak trips) was pronounced for several minutes, and the actual decel rate was REALLY impressive. Fortunately there was no collision.
I utilized the Premium Lounge at Miami, nice but not that impressive. Munchies were unimpressive, bottled water and, soft drinks were in self-serve glass-front refrigerators, and there was wine on tap (I didn't try that since alcohol is a migraine trigger for me).
The ride was overall much better than on most AMTRAK trips, probably courtesy of the FEC roadbed and concrete ties and all the money they've poured into making it uniform and in good repair. There were perhaps a dozen brief noticeable bad spots including a couple of really strong sideways jolts that I hope FEC or Brightline addresses. We went through what were brief slow-orders a couple of times. I was impressed at how frequently the speed was adjusted all the way down and back. They are apparently really trying hard to stay on-time.
I did run the cellphone speed app several times to monitor the speed, and seeing 125 mph was impressive (for the U.S.....). I also ran a mapping app that uses pre-downloaded maps so it doesn't require net data, and it was interesting to watch our progress. It also allowed me to have the Nikon ready when we crossed waterways or had other large towns that might provide photo opps.
I was pleased to see a high pax load WPB-MIA both ways and a decent pax load on the leg from and to ORL. Maybe they'll actually make this work. I hope so.
I still shake my head at the locations along the way where there are multi-road traffic circles that the track literally bisects. If there is a better way to snarl traffic on several roads at once many times a day in those cities I can't think of it.
Overall, very impressed with everything but the seat comfort.
MODERATOR NOTE: please keep the discussion on the topic of Brightline without discussing the potentially political topic of unions. Several posts have been removed for being off topic. Thank you for your understanding, cooperation and participation.
For a discussion of the status of railroad employees, please refer to the following thread:
https://www.amtraktrains.com/threads/status-of-railroad-employees.87889/
For a discussion of the status of railroad employees, please refer to the following thread:
https://www.amtraktrains.com/threads/status-of-railroad-employees.87889/
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Of the trains I saw Tuesday and today, I didn't notice any wrapped ones. Bright Green (lashed to loco 101) does have Bahamas tourism ads on the overhead shelves and tray tables, but the windows are un-dotted and relatively clean.
I am going to post a trip report of my Orlando- West Palm R/T on August 25, but for the record my trip down was the fully wrapped Orlando train, and the trip back had partially covered swirly things on some of the windows (and of course my window was one of them!) Again, will post a trip report soon but, in a nutshell, the physical plant was awesome, but the actual soft and hard product left much to be desired.
Got an email for this sale and checked it out for early October. Two premium RT Orlando to Miami would cost us about $1200 after applying the sale option. So much for Brightline sales.
Sass:
Short Haul
2021 November 61,045 0.6 $ 582,979 $ 9.83 $ 9.55 0.8 $13.11
2021 December 95,348 1.3 $1,259,547 $13.63 $13.21 1.6 $13.63
2021 156,393 1.8 $1,842,309 $11.51 $11.78 2.4* $15.34
Year Month Ridership Tix Rev-A Tix Rev-B PPR-A PPR-B Tot Rev Total PPR
2022 January 64,243 1.3 $1,254,666 $20.24 $19.53 1.5 $23.35
2022 February 77,806 1.6 $1,624,589 $20.56 $20.88 1.9 $24.42
2022 March 107,069 2.3 $2,289,135 $21.48 $21.38 2.7 $25.22
2022 April 93,922 1.9 $1,926,340 $20.23 $20.51 2.3 $24.49
2022 May 102,796 2.2 $2,178,247 $21.40 $21.19 2.6 $25.29
2022 June 92,304 1.7 $1,713,162 $18.42 $18.56 2.1 $22.75
2022 July 111,582 1.9 $1,896,894 $17.03 $17.00 2.3 $20.61
2022 August 100,116 1.9 $1,917,221 $18.98 $19.15 2.4 $23.97
2022 September 91,577 1.8 $1,769,268 $19.66 $19.32 2.5 $27.30
2022 October 102,615 2.1 $2,126,183 $20.46 $20.72 3.0 $29.24
2022 November 102,544 2.2 $2,213,925 $21.45 $21.59 3.4 $33.16
2022 December 183,920 3.7 $3,733,576 $20.12 $20.30 5.1 $27.73
2022 1,230,494 24.6 $24,643,207 $19.99 31.8 $25.84
2023 January 156,137 3.5 $3,538,064 $22.41 $22.66 4.7 $30.10
2023 February 151,654 3.7 $3,654,861 $24.39 $24.10 4.7 $30.99
2023 March 179,576 4.7 $4,710,278 $26.17 $26.23 6.5 $36.20
2023 April 151,080 3.4 $3,446,135 $22.50 $22.81 4.9 $32.43
2023 May 168,137 3.5 $3,468,666 $20.82 $20.63 5.2 $30.93
2023 June 149,536 2.7 $2,706,602 $18.06 $18.10 4.2 $28.09
2023 July 156,478 2.8 $2,818,169 $17.89 $18.01 4.3 $27.50
2023 August 149,821 2.6 $2,581,416 $17.35 $17.23 4.0 $26.70
2023 September 125,475 2.6 $2,588,549 $20.72 $20.63
2023 October 126,059 3.1 $3,092,227 $24.59 $24.53
2023 November 112,423 2.9 $2,915,128 $25.79 $25.93
2023 December 121,386 3.5 $3,470,426 $28.83 $28.59
2023 1,747,762 39.0 $38,992,570 $22.31 $22.31
2024 January 113,560 3.2 $3,246,680 $28.18 $28.59
2024 February 114,264 3.3 $28.93
2024 March 124,379 4.2 $33.96
2024 April 103,737 3.5 $33.51
2024 May 95,965 2.9 $30.62
2024 June 84,062 2.4 $28.03
2024 July 76,907 2.1 $27.08
Filing Derived Derived Filing Filing Derived
Code:
Consolidated
2021 November 61,045 0.6 $ 582,979 $ 9.83 $ 9.55 0.8 $13.11
2021 December 95,348 1.3 $1,259,547 $13.63 $13.21 1.6 $13.63
2021 156,393 1.8 $1,842,309 $11.51 $11.78 2.4* $15.34
Year Month Ridership Tix Rev-A Tix Rev-B PPR-A PPR-B Tot Rev Total PPR
2022 January 64,243 1.3 $1,254,666 $20.24 $19.53 1.5 $23.35
2022 February 77,806 1.6 $1,624,589 $20.56 $20.88 1.9 $24.42
2022 March 107,069 2.3 $2,289,135 $21.48 $21.38 2.7 $25.22
2022 April 93,922 1.9 $1,926,340 $20.23 $20.51 2.3 $24.49
2022 May 102,796 2.2 $2,178,247 $21.40 $21.19 2.6 $25.29
2022 June 92,304 1.7 $1,713,162 $18.42 $18.56 2.1 $22.75
2022 July 111,582 1.9 $1,896,894 $17.03 $17.00 2.3 $20.61
2022 August 100,116 1.9 $1,917,221 $18.98 $19.15 2.4 $23.97
2022 September 91,577 1.8 $1,769,268 $19.66 $19.32 2.5 $27.30
2022 October 102,615 2.1 $2,126,183 $20.46 $20.72 3.0 $29.24
2022 November 102,544 2.2 $2,213,925 $21.45 $21.59 3.4 $33.16
2022 December 183,920 3.7 $3,733,576 $20.12 $20.30 5.1 $27.73
2022 1,230,494 24.6 $24,643,207 $19.99 31.8 $25.84
2023 January 156,137 3.5 $3,538,064 $22.41 $22.66 4.7 $30.10
2023 February 151,654 3.7 $3,654,861 $24.39 $24.10 4.7 $30.99
2023 March 179,576 4.7 $4,710,278 $26.17 $26.23 6.5 $36.20
2023 April 151,080 3.4 $3,446,135 $22.50 $22.81 4.9 $32.43
2023 May 168,137 3.5 $3,468,666 $20.82 $20.63 5.2 $30.93
2023 June 149,536 2.7 $2,706,602 $18.06 $18.10 4.2 $28.09
2023 July 156,478 2.8 $2,818,169 $17.89 $18.01 4.3 $27.50
2023 August 149,821 2.6 $2,581,416 $17.35 $17.23 4.0 $26.70
2023 September 143,053 4.1 $4,068,427 $28.66 $28.44 5.8 $40.54
2023 October 205,745 10.4 $10,406,582 $50.55 $50.58 12.8 $62.21
2023 November 205,607 11.3 $11,275,488 $54.96 $54.84 13.9 $67.60
2023 December 237,069 12.4 $12,441,381 $52.31 $52.48 16.7 $70.44
2023 2,053,893 65.1 $65,108,408 $31.70 $31.70 87.7 $42.70
2024 January 236,263 12.4 $12,373,093 $52.48 $52.37 15.3 $64.76
2024 February 228,138 12.5 $54.69 15.5
2024 March 258,307 15.0 $57.96 18.1
2024 April 223,117 12.3 $55.25 15.2
2024 May 231,883 12.6 $54.18 15.4
2024 June 223,369 12.3 $55.11 15.2
2024 July 220,395 12.0 $54.59 14.8
Filing Derived Derived Filing Filing Derived
Code:
Long Haul
Year Month Ridership Tix Rev-A Tix Rev-B PPR-A PPR-B Tot Rev Total PPR
2023 September 17,578 1.5 $1,479,364 $85.33 $84.16
2023 October 79,686 7.3 $7,314,378 $91.61 $91.79
2023 November 93,184 8.4 $8,360,468 $90.14 $89.72
2023 December 115,683 9.0 $8,970,060 $77.80 $77.54
2023 306,131 26.1 $26,125,220 $85.26 $85.34
2024 January 122,703 9.1 $9,126,649 $74.16 $74.38
2024 February 113,874 9.2 $80.54
2024 March 133,928 10.7 $80.25
2024 April 119,380 8.8 $74.13
2024 May 135,918 9.6 $70.81
2024 June 139,307 9.9 $71.46
2024 July 143,488 9.9 $69.33
Filing Derived Derived Filing Filing DerivedSo, it looks like there's close to a 1:1 trade of short-haul vs long-haul ridership, but March aside (and March seems to generally be an outlier) ridership is "stuck" in the ballpark of 220-230k. Based on Brightline's notes about trains selling out, it looks like that's about where they have a practical capacity limit. I think I mulled over this point a few months back, but the data set is now big enough that I think that's going to "stick" for a while.
cirdan
Engineer
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2011
- Messages
- 3,793
Let us see if the arrival of the new cars leads will see ridership jump proportionately to the increased seating capacity.
"Stuart cancels $60 million deal to add Brightline station" is the headline of the Orlando Sentinel article linked below (likely under a paywall). However, I think the headline says it all.
I will add a few quotes from the article
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/202...lando_sentinel-dont_miss-nl&utm_content=alert
I will add a few quotes from the article
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/202...lando_sentinel-dont_miss-nl&utm_content=alert
This should be a non-paywalled link:
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/202...rightline-station/?share=eht2otgrltnlaa6t0tca
I expect that it will. Whether revenue jumps as well is the open question (both since the seating mix will temporarily be more Smart-heavy and since it seems like there's a good chance of a rebound in ridership within South Florida).
Notably, however, the ridership estimates for the next few years that are sitting in Brightline's official documents are effectively impossible to achieve - even if present ridership doubled with three more cars being delivered (this would require higher load factors/more efficient seat allocations since that's still only 4 cars->7 cars), you'd "only" be at 460k/month (about 5.5m/yr) vs the official projections (6.5m in 2025, 8.0m in 2026). There's also the fact that LD PPR has gotten "stuck" at less than $80/passenger (that "should" be at about $103, and it's supposed to be at $122 next year and $126 in 2026).
Slightly to Brightline's benefit, LD ridership is at 908k through July. The projection for 2024 is 2.2m there, but Brightline is probably on track to land at about 1.6-1.7m for the year even without any additional equipment, so with the new cars in hand they could plausibly be close to that target. I'm pretty sure they can't make the target of doubling that over the next three years (due to a lack of equipment), but it's been how many years since I twigged this as a pressure point?
Also to Brightline's benefit is that per-passenger ancillary revenue is actually coming in higher than projected - about $12.70/passenger vs the projection of $10.66. That's not a huge amount in the scheme of things, but it's not nothing - $2/passenger over 2.7m riders is still $5m/yr.
Anyhow, the "real" ridership bloodbath is over in the short haul ridership: YTD the pace is right about 100k/month, but the direction has been all downwards - July's short-haul ridership was the third lowest since the pandemic (and the two lower months were right at the resumption of ridership), so while the present pace would indicate right around 1.2m riders here, 1.1m seems more likely unless the new equipment arrives. So while long-haul ridership looks to land just shy of 80% of the projection (absent new equipment), short-haul ridership is looking to land at a little over 60%.
Putting this all together, if Brightline can pull 1.7m LD riders at $80/each, that'd be $136m. Add in 1.1m short-haul riders at $30/each, and that's $33m. So, ticket revenue for 2024 would be at $169m. Ancillary revenue of $12.70/passenger would add another $35.6m to the mix, so the grand total would be about $204-205m.
I cannot speak to the expense side of the income statement here (that is definitely more opaque), but this suggests that despite Brightline getting hosed on both ridership projections and per-passenger revenue estimates, Brightline has a half-decent shot of breaking even on EBITDA for 2024 even without the new equipment (since I presume that some costs will be avoided because they're having to do upkeep on a smaller fleet as well as because passenger-variable expenses will be a bit lower with, well, fewer passengers). Once the new stuff arrives, Brightline should be moderately in the black on EBITDA, presuming that per-passenger revenue doesn't take too much of a hit and there's at least a moderate increase in ridership.
Mind you, Brightline might still fall short on my per-passenger revenue estimates (they're coming in a little low on them as it stands), so a small EBITDA loss for 2024 might be more likely than a small profit. But it seems likely that they'll be EBITDA-positive for 2025, though whether that will be by enough to prepare to cover debt service for 2026 or not remains to be seen: A 50% increase in ridership and a 2% increase in ticket prices (with ancillary per-passenger revenue being held static) would put Brightline at $258.6m in ticket revenue and $53.3m in ancillary revenue, or $311.9m overall. If costs are kept where they are in the official projections, that'd provide EBITDA of about $87.9m...not enough to cover the required interest payments, but painfully close to it before capex comes into play.
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