Brightline Trains Florida discussion 2024

[MARC Rider]

What's the point of riding a train to experience going 125mph if you can't see out the window to experience going 125mph?

As someone who spent almost 20 years riding a commuter train that did 120 mph, I can attest that there's not much experiential difference between going 120 mph and doing 80 mph, except that you arrive earlier. When I ride the Acela, the only way I know we're doing 150 mph is by checking my GPS speedometer app. The view flashing by looks pretty much the same at all reasonably high speeds. When I notice speed, it's when we're creeping along at 30 or 40 mph when we should be doing 70, 80, 125, or 150.

 

[Cal H]

I’ve rode a few trains, but I’ve never even approached a triple digit speed. I hope to ride the Acela, I hope to ride Briteline - just for the experience of it.
If I purposefully went out of my way and bought a ticket for either one I would be very disappointed if I couldn’t see out the windows. Without the full effect I may as well watch a youtube video…

 

[Steve4031]

Its noticeable on a bullet train in Japan. Or high speed trains in Europe.

 

[BarbW]

Also, it's not like the scenery in Florida (especially along the I-95 corridor between Cocoa and Miami) is spectacular or anything.

I think the scenery is pretty nice.

 

[crescent-zephyr]

Just had a major go around with Brightline. I had purchased premium fares to afford flexibility if a train showed up in a wrap. Of course my first train showed up with a wrap. I tried to change to next train to hopefully get one with no wrap. The app wouldn't do it. Understandable. I went down to guest services and one agent looked at my phone told me all the trains were sold out. I rushed back up and missed the train.

I did a fresh booking and every train had availability. I went back downstairs and got in line. I was second in line. Another agent came out. She said she would help me. I thought she was going to a certain window. I went there and the agent waiting on the other guests started yelling at me for getting out of line and cutting. I explained why and that I didn't have a problem waiting. She kept scolding so I told her don't talk to me like that. She called security.

I explained what had happened and security just walked away. The second agent was very helpful. I thanked her profusely.

I asked to speak to the manager and he came out. He was very understanding. I told him I had come from Chicago to ride Brightline and that I was trying to avoid a train with a wrap. He apologized profusely about the mishap with the first two agents. He said if there had been escalation for any reason they were to call him. They didn't follow their training.

He called the service manager on the incoming train to verify no wrap. There isn't so I'll be okay. I have the same train coming back.

Key take away. The ability to change trains is not available the last 20 minutes before departure. The train boards less than 20 minutes before departure. You cannot change to a later train in the app if you skip the planned train. Guest services has been the ability to help. If you have issues ask to speak to a manager. Jesus was the manager who helped me today.

Yeah.. everyone acts like Amtrak is the problem but I saw an on-board Brightline Employee (not sure what his title / position was) scold passengers for not knowing which door would not open at a stop. There had been no announcement about which doors open so there was no way for them to know.

I'm so glad a manager was able to listen to you and help you - the agent that called security needs to be fired. She shouldn't be working in customer service.

I hope you still have an enjoyable train ride - Brightline Trains are pretty fun to ride.

 

[Steve4031]

Overall Brightline did well. The onboard service both ways was good. The southbound train ahead of my train hit a car at a grade crossing. They asked all the passengers to lower the shades so we could not see the accident as we passed by. I agree with this approach. The scene would be traumatic for most to see.

My southbound train picked up the passengers waiting for the other train. They had to stand. But that was better than leaving them stranded.

We were delayed about 30 minutes. I consider this a good performance.

 

[railiner]

The southbound train ahead of my train hit a car at a grade crossing. They asked all the passengers to lower the shades so we could not see the accident as we passed by. I agree with this approach. The scene would be traumatic for most to see.

I’d be a little surprised if this request did not receive the opposite effect desired.
Anybody driving past a bad wreck on the other side of a divided highway knows what happens to traffic…

 

[BlackDiamond]

As someone who spent almost 20 years riding a commuter train that did 120 mph, I can attest that there's not much experiential difference between going 120 mph and doing 80 mph, except that you arrive earlier. When I ride the Acela, the only way I know we're doing 150 mph is by checking my GPS speedometer app. The view flashing by looks pretty much the same at all reasonably high speeds. When I notice speed, it's when we're creeping along at 30 or 40 mph when we should be doing 70, 80, 125, or 150.

When you can't read the signs as you go past a station ( to know where you are) then you know you are going fast. Other than that I agree you need a GPS.

 

[MikefromCrete]

I’d be a little surprised if this request did not receive the opposite effect desired.
Anybody driving past a bad wreck on the other side of a divided highway knows what happens to traffic…

I agree. People can't stop watching an accident site. I doubt if rolling past a train-car crash would traumatize most people.

 

[Steve4031]

I had my headphones at the time and had not heard the PA. The attendant got my attention and told me to lower my shade. I explained I was looking out the window. Then I saw the other shades down and figured out what was happening. I lowered my shade. I heard a few gasps as we rolled by. I had my shade down, but I could see the emergency vehicles.

Briteline sent me a 22 dollar voucher for the 30 minutes delay this morning. I have to use it by November 24. I won't be back in time to use it. But I really did not think any compensation was in order since this was not Brighlines fault.

 

[MARC Rider]

They asked all the passengers to lower the shades so we could not see the accident as we passed by.

That wouldn't work if you were riding in an Amfleet 1 coach. They have no shades or curtains.

 

[railiner]

That wouldn't work if you were riding in an Amfleet 1 coach. They have no shades or curtains.

Doubt Amtrak crew would make a similar request, even if they did have shades…

 

[Anderson]

Florida Daily reports that Brightline lost $116M in Q1. How is this sustainable?

https://www.floridadaily.com/bright...ETyIf90p48B2bv28mw_aem_XPgfp2pUktqzqWq1_DJzkQ

Coming in a bit late...

Do consider that Brightline's operating cost recovery rate has risen from about 33% in the prior year to 56% this year, and that's with a serious equipment shortage ("only" four cars vs the 7 they expect to have down the line).

 

[AmtrakWPK]

Leaving this here on the Brightline 2024 thread rather on trip reports. Had my first Brightline trip yesterday, 8/21/24. They had been offering deep discounts a month or so beforehand so I finally bit. Had 'Smart' Class southbound from Orlando, with 'Premium' Class on the return from Miami. Service was on-time both ways. and the whole operation seems well-planned and well-executed. Staff seemed well trained and pleasant.
I have to say that the seats aren't NEARLY as comfortable as Amtrak. Next trip I may bring a cushion for these 75-year-old bones.
We did go into heavy braking once on the way down. Not sure where it was, possibly in the vicinity of Stuart. A PA announcement was made that we nearly hit a vehicle at a crossing, with apologies for the sudden decel. I had to grab my phone and camera on the table to keep them from launching. The smell of hot brakes (familiar from Amtrak trips) was pronounced for several minutes, and the actual decel rate was REALLY impressive. Fortunately there was no collision.
I utilized the Premium Lounge at Miami, nice but not that impressive. Munchies were unimpressive, bottled water and, soft drinks were in self-serve glass-front refrigerators, and there was wine on tap (I didn't try that since alcohol is a migraine trigger for me).
The ride was overall much better than on most AMTRAK trips, probably courtesy of the FEC roadbed and concrete ties and all the money they've poured into making it uniform and in good repair. There were perhaps a dozen brief noticeable bad spots including a couple of really strong sideways jolts that I hope FEC or Brightline addresses. We went through what were brief slow-orders a couple of times. I was impressed at how frequently the speed was adjusted all the way down and back. They are apparently really trying hard to stay on-time.
I did run the cellphone speed app several times to monitor the speed, and seeing 125 mph was impressive (for the U.S.....). I also ran a mapping app that uses pre-downloaded maps so it doesn't require net data, and it was interesting to watch our progress. It also allowed me to have the Nikon ready when we crossed waterways or had other large towns that might provide photo opps.
I was pleased to see a high pax load WPB-MIA both ways and a decent pax load on the leg from and to ORL. Maybe they'll actually make this work. I hope so.
I still shake my head at the locations along the way where there are multi-road traffic circles that the track literally bisects. If there is a better way to snarl traffic on several roads at once many times a day in those cities I can't think of it.
Overall, very impressed with everything but the seat comfort.

 

[pennyk]

MODERATOR NOTE: please keep the discussion on the topic of Brightline without discussing the potentially political topic of unions. Several posts have been removed for being off topic. Thank you for your understanding, cooperation and participation.

For a discussion of the status of railroad employees, please refer to the following thread:

https://www.amtraktrains.com/threads/status-of-railroad-employees.87889/

 

[bonzoesc]

Of the trains I saw Tuesday and today, I didn't notice any wrapped ones. Bright Green (lashed to loco 101) does have Bahamas tourism ads on the overhead shelves and tray tables, but the windows are un-dotted and relatively clean.

 

[JoeRids]

I am going to post a trip report of my Orlando- West Palm R/T on August 25, but for the record my trip down was the fully wrapped Orlando train, and the trip back had partially covered swirly things on some of the windows (and of course my window was one of them!) Again, will post a trip report soon but, in a nutshell, the physical plant was awesome, but the actual soft and hard product left much to be desired.

 

[Palmland]

Got an email for this sale and checked it out for early October. Two premium RT Orlando to Miami would cost us about $1200 after applying the sale option. So much for Brightline sales.

 

[Anderson]

Short Haul
2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                    
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20
2023    April       151,080     3.4         $3,446,135    $22.50    $22.81    4.9     $32.43
2023    May         168,137     3.5         $3,468,666    $20.82    $20.63    5.2     $30.93
2023    June        149,536     2.7         $2,706,602    $18.06    $18.10    4.2     $28.09
2023    July        156,478     2.8         $2,818,169    $17.89    $18.01    4.3     $27.50
2023    August      149,821     2.6         $2,581,416    $17.35    $17.23    4.0     $26.70
2023    September   125,475     2.6         $2,588,549    $20.72    $20.63
2023    October     126,059     3.1         $3,092,227    $24.59    $24.53
2023    November    112,423     2.9         $2,915,128    $25.79    $25.93
2023    December    121,386     3.5         $3,470,426    $28.83    $28.59

2023                1,747,762   39.0       $38,992,570    $22.31    $22.31

2024    January     113,560     3.2         $3,246,680    $28.18    $28.59
2024    February    114,264     3.3                                 $28.93
2024    March       124,379     4.2                                 $33.96
2024    April       103,737     3.5                                 $33.51
2024    May          95,965     2.9                                 $30.62
2024    June         84,062     2.4                                 $28.03
2024    July         76,907     2.1                                 $27.08

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

Consolidated
2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                    
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20
2023    April       151,080     3.4         $3,446,135    $22.50    $22.81    4.9     $32.43
2023    May         168,137     3.5         $3,468,666    $20.82    $20.63    5.2     $30.93
2023    June        149,536     2.7         $2,706,602    $18.06    $18.10    4.2     $28.09
2023    July        156,478     2.8         $2,818,169    $17.89    $18.01    4.3     $27.50
2023    August      149,821     2.6         $2,581,416    $17.35    $17.23    4.0     $26.70
2023    September   143,053     4.1         $4,068,427    $28.66    $28.44    5.8     $40.54
2023    October     205,745    10.4        $10,406,582    $50.55    $50.58   12.8     $62.21
2023    November    205,607    11.3        $11,275,488    $54.96    $54.84   13.9     $67.60
2023    December    237,069    12.4        $12,441,381    $52.31    $52.48   16.7     $70.44

2023              2,053,893    65.1        $65,108,408    $31.70    $31.70   87.7     $42.70

2024    January     236,263    12.4        $12,373,093    $52.48    $52.37   15.3     $64.76
2024    February    228,138    12.5                                 $54.69   15.5
2024    March       258,307    15.0                                 $57.96   18.1
2024    April       223,117    12.3                                 $55.25   15.2
2024    May         231,883    12.6                                 $54.18   15.4
2024    June        223,369    12.3                                 $55.11   15.2
2024    July        220,395    12.0                                 $54.59   14.8

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

Long Haul
Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2023    September    17,578      1.5         $1,479,364   $85.33    $84.16   
2023    October      79,686      7.3         $7,314,378   $91.61    $91.79
2023    November     93,184      8.4         $8,360,468   $90.14    $89.72
2023    December    115,683      9.0         $8,970,060   $77.80    $77.54

2023                306,131     26.1        $26,125,220   $85.26    $85.34

2024    January     122,703      9.1         $9,126,649   $74.16    $74.38     
2024    February    113,874      9.2                                $80.54
2024    March       133,928     10.7                                $80.25
2024    April       119,380      8.8                                $74.13
2024    May         135,918      9.6                                $70.81
2024    June        139,307      9.9                                $71.46
2024    July        143,488      9.9                                $69.33

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

 

[Anderson]

So, it looks like there's close to a 1:1 trade of short-haul vs long-haul ridership, but March aside (and March seems to generally be an outlier) ridership is "stuck" in the ballpark of 220-230k. Based on Brightline's notes about trains selling out, it looks like that's about where they have a practical capacity limit. I think I mulled over this point a few months back, but the data set is now big enough that I think that's going to "stick" for a while.

 

[cirdan]

So, it looks like there's close to a 1:1 trade of short-haul vs long-haul ridership, but March aside (and March seems to generally be an outlier) ridership is "stuck" in the ballpark of 220-230k. Based on Brightline's notes about trains selling out, it looks like that's about where they have a practical capacity limit. I think I mulled over this point a few months back, but the data set is now big enough that I think that's going to "stick" for a while.

Let us see if the arrival of the new cars leads will see ridership jump proportionately to the increased seating capacity.

 

[pennyk]

"Stuart cancels $60 million deal to add Brightline station" is the headline of the Orlando Sentinel article linked below (likely under a paywall). However, I think the headline says it all.

I will add a few quotes from the article

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/202...lando_sentinel-dont_miss-nl&utm_content=alert

STUART (CBS12) — The future of a Brightline station on the Treasure Coast is once again uncertain.

After hours of debate and public input on Monday, Stuart leaders decided to hit the brakes on adding a Brightline stop.

At the heart of the debate is a $60 million price tag, which was to be shared among Stuart, Martin County, and Brightline. The first $30 million was to be paid exclusively by the city and the county.

Supporters argue that the station will be a game-changer, bringing jobs, tourism, and a much-needed boost to the downtown area.

One supporter pointed out, “The wealthiest people in American history made their money on railroads.”

 

[railiner]

If Stuart and Martin County do shun Brightline again, I think Fort Pierce in St. Lucie County might go for it…

 

[joelkfla]

"Stuart cancels $60 million deal to add Brightline station" is the headline of the Orlando Sentinel article linked below (likely under a paywall). However, I think the headline says it all.

I will add a few quotes from the article

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2024/09/10/stuart-cancels-60-million-deal-to-add-brightline-station/?utm_email=955004D5546E849EC509349B03&lctg=955004D5546E849EC509349B03&active=yesP&utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2024/09/10/stuart-cancels-60-million-deal-to-add-brightline-station/&utm_campaign=trib-orlando_sentinel-dont_miss-nl&utm_content=alert

This should be a non-paywalled link:
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/202...rightline-station/?share=eht2otgrltnlaa6t0tca

 

[Anderson]

Let us see if the arrival of the new cars leads will see ridership jump proportionately to the increased seating capacity.

I expect that it will. Whether revenue jumps as well is the open question (both since the seating mix will temporarily be more Smart-heavy and since it seems like there's a good chance of a rebound in ridership within South Florida).

Notably, however, the ridership estimates for the next few years that are sitting in Brightline's official documents are effectively impossible to achieve - even if present ridership doubled with three more cars being delivered (this would require higher load factors/more efficient seat allocations since that's still only 4 cars->7 cars), you'd "only" be at 460k/month (about 5.5m/yr) vs the official projections (6.5m in 2025, 8.0m in 2026). There's also the fact that LD PPR has gotten "stuck" at less than $80/passenger (that "should" be at about $103, and it's supposed to be at $122 next year and $126 in 2026).

Slightly to Brightline's benefit, LD ridership is at 908k through July. The projection for 2024 is 2.2m there, but Brightline is probably on track to land at about 1.6-1.7m for the year even without any additional equipment, so with the new cars in hand they could plausibly be close to that target. I'm pretty sure they can't make the target of doubling that over the next three years (due to a lack of equipment), but it's been how many years since I twigged this as a pressure point?

Also to Brightline's benefit is that per-passenger ancillary revenue is actually coming in higher than projected - about $12.70/passenger vs the projection of $10.66. That's not a huge amount in the scheme of things, but it's not nothing - $2/passenger over 2.7m riders is still $5m/yr.

Anyhow, the "real" ridership bloodbath is over in the short haul ridership: YTD the pace is right about 100k/month, but the direction has been all downwards - July's short-haul ridership was the third lowest since the pandemic (and the two lower months were right at the resumption of ridership), so while the present pace would indicate right around 1.2m riders here, 1.1m seems more likely unless the new equipment arrives. So while long-haul ridership looks to land just shy of 80% of the projection (absent new equipment), short-haul ridership is looking to land at a little over 60%.

Putting this all together, if Brightline can pull 1.7m LD riders at $80/each, that'd be $136m. Add in 1.1m short-haul riders at $30/each, and that's $33m. So, ticket revenue for 2024 would be at $169m. Ancillary revenue of $12.70/passenger would add another $35.6m to the mix, so the grand total would be about $204-205m.

I cannot speak to the expense side of the income statement here (that is definitely more opaque), but this suggests that despite Brightline getting hosed on both ridership projections and per-passenger revenue estimates, Brightline has a half-decent shot of breaking even on EBITDA for 2024 even without the new equipment (since I presume that some costs will be avoided because they're having to do upkeep on a smaller fleet as well as because passenger-variable expenses will be a bit lower with, well, fewer passengers). Once the new stuff arrives, Brightline should be moderately in the black on EBITDA, presuming that per-passenger revenue doesn't take too much of a hit and there's at least a moderate increase in ridership.

Mind you, Brightline might still fall short on my per-passenger revenue estimates (they're coming in a little low on them as it stands), so a small EBITDA loss for 2024 might be more likely than a small profit. But it seems likely that they'll be EBITDA-positive for 2025, though whether that will be by enough to prepare to cover debt service for 2026 or not remains to be seen: A 50% increase in ridership and a 2% increase in ticket prices (with ancillary per-passenger revenue being held static) would put Brightline at $258.6m in ticket revenue and $53.3m in ancillary revenue, or $311.9m overall. If costs are kept where they are in the official projections, that'd provide EBITDA of about $87.9m...not enough to cover the required interest payments, but painfully close to it before capex comes into play.