Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[Brian_tampa]

Brian,

Thanks for the info there. I'm trying to sort out the tea leaves on this and what I'm thinking is the following:

(1) AAF is going to get their Orlando-Miami line running. At the same time they'll probably run a feasibility study (not too expensive and it gets it out of the way) on the Jacksonville line (since that requires almost no new ROW, just re-double-tracking the existing line).

(2) Once Orlando-Miami is running, and assuming that it ramps up roughly in line with what they're shooting for, they'll focus on making Jacksonville happen (EIS, etc.). This will probably be accompanied by some feasibility work on Tampa.

(3) Assuming that Jacksonville gets going (I figure that will only take 2-3 years...unlike Orlando, where there's new ROW and all, Jacksonville probably won't involve much construction south of Cocoa, so the room for NIMBY objections is going to get a bit thin) and also performs well, the Tampa EIS process will begin.

So we're probably looking at about a decade, at least, before Tampa gets service. Jacksonville might get it by 2020/21 (again, I think the Jacksonville process will be comparatively smooth...the politicians on the northern end of the line seem to be pretty well-disposed towards AAF, particularly in the hope that they can somehow use it to link up with Central Florida) but Tampa...2026-2030 seems like the timeframe you're looking at.

My thoughts are these:
1. AAF has previously said that ramp up for ridership is expected to take 2-3 years. So a decision on success of the first route won't be completely known until late 2020 at the earliest.

2. If a ridership/feasibility study shows the Jacksonville route to be good, then any environmental permits/requirements could take as little as a year or as long as 3 years. Remember, AAF only went the EIS route because they thought they needed a RRIF loan. PABs do not require a full EIS. I was told that they could have done just environmental assessments (EA) for the Miami to Cocoa portion of the route with specific Coast Guard and DEP permits where required. Perhaps they will do this for any future expansion to Jacksonville? Maybe they have learned a lesson from the Treasure Coast opposition - An EIS opens your project up to lawsuits and delay. Miami to WPB was just an EA with a finding of no significant impact, I suspect because it is an existing railroad route with no additional land needed. The Jacksonville extension would be very similar to Miami to WPB. Only snag might be the drawbridge over the St Johns River.

3. Jacksonville construction could begin as soon as 2022 and maybe running by 2024 at the earliest.

4. Tampa - the whole route that AAF will most likely use already has had a FEIS and a Record of Decision from the FRA for the never built HSR project. Therefore, only an update to the existing environmental reviews would be needed. That will reduce the time needed for approval since this will be all new railroad ROW. Also, the NIMBY opposition will be a lot less as the route passes through industrial and commercial areas before it meets one of the toll roads in Orlando. The rest of the way is in the middle of I-4 so there shouldn't be any opposition.

5. If ridership/feasibility studies show Tampa to be good, I can actually see AAF starting on Tampa about the same time as Jacksonville. I don't see a real requirement to do Jacksonville or Tampa first before the other. If the first route to Orlando is successful, then that will be proof that rail ridership exists as predicted by their studies. The limitation will be how much money they can raise (PABs for Jacksonville mainly and RRIF/PABs for Tampa?) based on the success of the first route.

6. Tampa could begin construction by 2023 if environmental studies are begun in 2021. Trains running by 2026 at the earliest.

Of course, a big unknown to us on the outside is how much does potential development around station sites impact AAF/FECI's decision on where and when to build. If either extension has more development opportunities than that might swing the decision that way. I personally think AAF is more about development than running trains as that is where the profit is. Therefore if Tampa and Jacksonville can come up with plans to improve local transit and have areas big enough for a major TOD project around the station sites, then AAF will expand.

 

[Brian_tampa]

Meeting in Orlando set for August 5 (one week from this Wednesday) for the FDFC to approve the issuance of PAB's for AAF.

Nothing heard recently about the lawsuit against the FRA giving approval for the PABs. So if AAF can start issuing bonds immediately on August 6 and the court hasn't ruled against the FRA (and AAF) by then on the latest appeal (opponents claiming that AAF needs the PABs to go forward), does that mean the lawsuit is moot? AAF has been soliciting for the bond sale since end of last year. I heard that AAF had investors lined up to sell the full $1.75 billion amount as of several months ago.

 

[jis]

Brian, wouldn't the northern leg of the wye in Cocoa require some further land acquisition for the connection from the new Orlando - Cocoa line to the FEC main line to go towards JAX at Cocoa? I suspect there may be some land acquisition involved in JAX too possibly.

Also, I understand that EIS's are good for 10 years from ROD to beginning of construction. If construction has not begun within that period then a fresh EIS has to be done. Have you heard any concern along those lines for reusing the FEIS for Orlando - Tampa?

 

[Brian_tampa]

Brian, wouldn't the northern leg of the wye in Cocoa require some further land acquisition for the connection from the new Orlando - Cocoa line to the FEC main line to go towards JAX at Cocoa? I suspect there may be some land acquisition involved in JAX too possibly.

Also, I understand that EIS's are good for 10 years from ROD to beginning of construction. If construction has not begun within that period then a fresh EIS has to be done. Have you heard any concern along those lines for reusing the FEIS for Orlando - Tampa?

If they were to build a wye at Cocoa, the question becomes: does that small portion of needed land trigger a project wide EIS? Or could that still be done within the confines of an EA? The land at the wye location appears to be occupied by a rock/gravel material supply operation wth industrial buildings and railroad tracks. I would think that it would require minimal or no mitigation and likely result in a FONSI. in WPB and FTL they purchased additional land for their station buildings without having to go through a full EIS review. I am thinking that the wye and any land needed for the station in Jacksonville could be done with an EA only if no impacts are found.

Regarding the FEIS for the HSR. Thanks for clarifying that as I knew the ROD was good for 10 years but assumed that since the 2010 FEIS relied in part on an earlier EIS that would mean it could be done again. Now that you say that, the earlier EIS was from 2005 or so if I recall. Still, even with a fresh EIS, it should not take long and be much easier than the EIS being performed for the section north of WPB. From my knowledge of the route to Tampa, not much has really changed along the route since the original EIS a decade ago.

 

[Anderson]

Brian, wouldn't the northern leg of the wye in Cocoa require some further land acquisition for the connection from the new Orlando - Cocoa line to the FEC main line to go towards JAX at Cocoa? I suspect there may be some land acquisition involved in JAX too possibly.

Also, I understand that EIS's are good for 10 years from ROD to beginning of construction. If construction has not begun within that period then a fresh EIS has to be done. Have you heard any concern along those lines for reusing the FEIS for Orlando - Tampa?

If they were to build a wye at Cocoa, the question becomes: does that small portion of needed land trigger a project wide EIS? Or could that still be done within the confines of an EA? The land at the wye location appears to be occupied by a rock/gravel material supply operation wth industrial buildings and railroad tracks. I would think that it would require minimal or no mitigation and likely result in a FONSI. in WPB and FTL they purchased additional land for their station buildings without having to go through a full EIS review. I am thinking that the wye and any land needed for the station in Jacksonville could be done with an EA only if no impacts are found.

Regarding the FEIS for the HSR. Thanks for clarifying that as I knew the ROD was good for 10 years but assumed that since the 2010 FEIS relied in part on an earlier EIS that would mean it could be done again. Now that you say that, the earlier EIS was from 2005 or so if I recall. Still, even with a fresh EIS, it should not take long and be much easier than the EIS being performed for the section north of WPB. From my knowledge of the route to Tampa, not much has really changed along the route since the original EIS a decade ago.

If I'm FEC, then in this situation what do I do? I initiate JAX-MIA service and then make the wye a second, detached, small project.

 

[chrsjrcj]

Grade crossing work has begin in areas outside of the station area. Can't get up close to the first one in Lake Worth, but it looks like a second track is being added on the west side of the main line (where I believe the original second track also was). I'm going out of town tomorrow, so won't have any good pictures until work is done on Wednesday (when another crossing further south shuts down for a few days).

 

[Brian_tampa]

The FDFC has very nicely made available to the public a document for the bond offering that gives many details about the project all in one place. Starting at pdf page 131 it goes into great detail on the project. Too many to list but here are some particular items of interest:

First 2 Siemens locomotives to be delivered July 2016.

Café cars to come later in 2018.

First 5 trainsets to be delivered May-July 2017. Second 5 trainsets for delivery Feb-June 2018. Ultimate configuration is 5 coach cars and 1 café car on each train.

https://www.enterpriseflorida.com/wp-content/uploads/FDFC-Agenda-Packet-2015-08-05.pdf

 

[jis]

For some unknown reason I was unable to load the document from that URL. However, if you go to http://www.enterpriseflorida.comand then select Events from the top and select "August FDIC Meeting" you can get hold of a copy of the agenda from there which contains the material referred to above.

 

[Brian_tampa]

Final EIS documents released today!

https://www.fra.dot.gov/eLib/Details/L16955

 

[cirdan]

I wonder why the cafe cars are coming later.

I would have thought this is an essential part of thes ervice.

 

[Anderson]

I wonder why the cafe cars are coming later.

I would have thought this is an essential part of thes ervice.

My best guess is that they don't see on-board food service as necessary between Miami and West Palm Beach (nobody's on the train for more than an hour and change).

 

[jis]

The private bond issue to finance AAF was approved at the hearing today.

 

[Caesar La Rock]

Yep.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/breaking-news/os-ap-all-aboard-florida-vote-20150805-story.html

 

[Anderson]

An *ahem* amusing tidbit from the article:

Opponents came mostly from the Treasure Coast counties of Martin, Indian River and St. Lucie. They do not have a stop and vowed to continue fighting the train, though it was not clear what they intended to do next.

Melanie Treewind of the St. Lucie Historical Society suggested people might sue or even lay down on the tracks to stop All Aboard Florida.

Good Lord, I thought we left that sort of nonsense in the 60s. Then again, knowing Florida I wouldn't be surprised if the same people who did it in the 60s would be doing it again.

 

[jis]

At this rate they will either land up in jail or dead. Sigh....

 

[chrsjrcj]

The Gregory Road railroad crossing in West Palm Beach/Lake Worth has reopened with a second track. Took some pictures yesterday- https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1176011182414062.1073741835.100000155733512&type=1&l=f3fe4ef9d7(the last 15 pictures in the album). Crews are now doing 22nd ave just south of that crossing. Looks like double tracking on the FEC corridor is about to begin.

 

[jis]

AFAICT there was no one higher than county level folks from the Treasure Coast who spoke against it, while there were quite a few Florida legislature and of course Congresspeople who spoke in favor of it, including a statement submitted in absentia by Rep Mica.

Apparently a lot of speakers were confused about the remit of FDFC which was to determine whether there was enough net positive for the state coming from the project to justify selling the bonds. People spoke about all kinds of other stuff, which while nice to know, has little effect on the question in front of the commissioners.

Anyway, it appears that the bond issue is more than fully subscribed. So as soon as it hits the market in a few days, they will all be sold.

Here is an article from a newspaper from the center of the opposition which is Indian River, Martin and St. Lucie Counties. In general everyone else except one Commissioner of Brevard seemed to be for it. A mayor of a city in the area of the said Brevard Commissioner, however, spoke in favor of it.

http://realtime.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2015/08/05/all-aboard-florida-bonds-get-vote-today/

 

[Devil's Advocate]

An *ahem* amusing tidbit from the article:

Opponents came mostly from the Treasure Coast counties of Martin, Indian River and St. Lucie. They do not have a stop and vowed to continue fighting the train, though it was not clear what they intended to do next.

Melanie Treewind of the St. Lucie Historical Society suggested people might sue or even lay down on the tracks to stop All Aboard Florida.

Good Lord, I thought we left that sort of nonsense in the 60s. Then again, knowing Florida I wouldn't be surprised if the same people who did it in the 60s would be doing it again.

Yeah, we abandoned that sort of nonsense and replaced it with new nonsense based on impotent rage and cynical indifference. Although these folks appear to be highly confused and easily manipulated at least they're taking part in the process. It's hard for me to hold that specific aspect against them. Sometimes even ignorant controversy can serve as a catalyst for improved outcomes.

For instance, when the largely discredited anti-vaccine movement successfully removed unnecessary mercury from vaccine solutions I still considered it a positive development. It's entirely possible that trace levels of mercury are not especially harmful, but since you cannot legally (or morally) test the effects of mercury poisoning on an infant I would prefer to play it safe rather than sloppy.

 

[Anderson]

An *ahem* amusing tidbit from the article:

Opponents came mostly from the Treasure Coast counties of Martin, Indian River and St. Lucie. They do not have a stop and vowed to continue fighting the train, though it was not clear what they intended to do next.

Melanie Treewind of the St. Lucie Historical Society suggested people might sue or even lay down on the tracks to stop All Aboard Florida.

Good Lord, I thought we left that sort of nonsense in the 60s. Then again, knowing Florida I wouldn't be surprised if the same people who did it in the 60s would be doing it again.

Yeah, we abandoned that sort of nonsense and replaced it with new nonsense based on impotent rage and cynical indifference. Although these folks appear to be highly confused and easily manipulated at least they're taking part in the process. It's hard for me to hold that specific aspect against them. Sometimes even ignorant controversy can serve as a catalyst for improved outcomes.

For instance, when the largely discredited anti-vaccine movement successfully removed unnecessary mercury from vaccine solutions I still considered it a positive development. It's entirely possible that trace levels of mercury are not especially harmful, but since you cannot legally (or morally) test the effects of mercury poisoning on an infant I would prefer to play it safe rather than sloppy.

There's a difference between engaging in the process legitimately (e.g. attending meetings, voting, and various forms of non-intrusive protest) and doing so in a manner intended to inconvenience as many people as possible with an aim of forcing folks to concede to your demands (e.g. laying down on the railroad tracks, shutting down a city with protests for days on end, rioting). I'll grant that you can make a case in some narrow circumstances about dysfunctional systems...but those are necessarily few and far between and in most cases there's an underlying unwillingness to engage.

In a case like this the problem is, to my mind, an unwillingness to accept that a fight was lost and move on (Honolulu comes to mind as another example of this issue). Of course, I think we've also seen plenty of immediate post-defeat bluster followed by acceptance of the defeat over the ensuing weeks and months...witness the lawsuit in this case getting dropped quietly.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

An *ahem* amusing tidbit from the article:

Opponents came mostly from the Treasure Coast counties of Martin, Indian River and St. Lucie. They do not have a stop and vowed to continue fighting the train, though it was not clear what they intended to do next.

Melanie Treewind of the St. Lucie Historical Society suggested people might sue or even lay down on the tracks to stop All Aboard Florida.

Good Lord, I thought we left that sort of nonsense in the 60s. Then again, knowing Florida I wouldn't be surprised if the same people who did it in the 60s would be doing it again.

Yeah, we abandoned that sort of nonsense and replaced it with new nonsense based on impotent rage and cynical indifference. Although these folks appear to be highly confused and easily manipulated at least they're taking part in the process. It's hard for me to hold that specific aspect against them. Sometimes even ignorant controversy can serve as a catalyst for improved outcomes.

For instance, when the largely discredited anti-vaccine movement successfully removed unnecessary mercury from vaccine solutions I still considered it a positive development. It's entirely possible that trace levels of mercury are not especially harmful, but since you cannot legally (or morally) test the effects of mercury poisoning on an infant I would prefer to play it safe rather than sloppy.

There's a difference between engaging in the process legitimately (e.g. attending meetings, voting, and various forms of non-intrusive protest) and doing so in a manner intended to inconvenience as many people as possible with an aim of forcing folks to concede to your demands (e.g. laying down on the railroad tracks, shutting down a city with protests for days on end, rioting). I'll grant that you can make a case in some narrow circumstances about dysfunctional systems...but those are necessarily few and far between and in most cases there's an underlying unwillingness to engage. In a case like this the problem is, to my mind, an unwillingness to accept that a fight was lost and move on (Honolulu comes to mind as another example of this issue). Of course, I think we've also seen plenty of immediate post-defeat bluster followed by acceptance of the defeat over the ensuing weeks and months...witness the lawsuit in this case getting dropped quietly.

Something else to keep in mind is that the folks who actually laid down on tracks were fighting battles over potentially life altering or life ending events such as nuclear contamination and proliferation. They were not fighting over theoretical property values and potential impact to real estate investments. I seriously doubt that any of these people will be lying down on any tracks over something like this.

 

[Bob Dylan]

I agree with Chris that the 60s and 70s protestors were doing important business in trying to stop the craziness that was going on in the world and STILL IS!!

Wealthy Nimbys and Anti- Government Zealots, egged on by Real Estate Developers, are not the same thing, but they do have rights, as long as they exercise them peacefully we should be happy that they still can!!

 

[neroden]

There's a difference between engaging in the process legitimately (e.g. attending meetings, voting, and various forms of non-intrusive protest) and doing so in a manner intended to inconvenience as many people as possible with an aim of forcing folks to concede to your demands (e.g. laying down on the railroad tracks, shutting down a city with protests for days on end, rioting). I'll grant that you can make a case in some narrow circumstances about dysfunctional systems...but those are necessarily few and far between and in most cases there's an underlying unwillingness to engage.

Yeah... direct action may be appropriate if you're facing a wholly corrupt system. When the Native Americans in the Toronto area block the roads and tracks which go through the land which was *stolen from them*, exercising their legal rights to the land despite the refusal of "white man's" governments to honor those rights... I can't really argue with that. Everyone who's looked into it honestly, including the Supreme Court of Canada, knows about the land theft, and they've been demanding compensation continuously for over 200 years, but the land still hasn't been paid for. Similarly, I understand when the Senecas shut down I-81 through the reservation, because they never approved its construction, it was subsequently built illegally, and they're *still* fighting for compensation. You can't tell them to go to the courts, because the US courts have been infamously and blatantly corrupt when it comes to them, actually preventing them from appearing in court for roughly 150 years, and then saying 'well, it's been too long to complain' (despite the fact that the delay was *entirely the courts' fault*).

And I understand when people blockade a project which has imminent risk of poisoning the water supply, like fracking, or causing an irreversible sinkhole, or... you know, things which you can't be compensated for at *all*.

This? It's freaking passenger trains on *existing tracks*. It's not going to cause irreversible environmental damage. It isn't an case of fighting for self-evident rights to land which was stolen from them. It's just not the sort of thing which anyone would consider worth fighting the entire system for.

Something else to keep in mind is that the folks who actually laid down on tracks were fighting battles over potentially life altering or life ending events such as nuclear contamination and proliferation. They were not fighting over theoretical property values and potential impact to real estate investments. I seriously doubt that any of these people will be lying down on any tracks over something like this.

Exactly.

 

[Bob Dylan]

Yep, as the old Folk Song from Woddie Guthrie goes: "..some people Rob you with a fountain pen.."

 

[me_little_me]

Something else to keep in mind is that the folks who actually laid down on tracks were fighting battles over potentially life altering or life ending events such as nuclear contamination and proliferation. They were not fighting over theoretical property values and potential impact to real estate investments. I seriously doubt that any of these people will be lying down on any tracks over something like this.

Actually, they'd be more likely to hire some poor people to do that for them. Wouldn't want to get germs from those dirty tracks. :giggle: :giggle:

 

[Paulus]

The number of seats that AAF is planning for their trains is just absurdly low. I don't know how they plan on hitting their ridership goals with them.