Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[cirdan]

Disney actually prefers capturing its customers as soon as they get off the plane, onto their own transport. The Disney experience begins at the airport. That is why they have resisted building public transport from airport to Disney properties. Same will be true with Brightline. Amtrak simply does not carry a sufficiently large number of people to Disney for Disney to worry about it too much. They would be and are OK with random Lynx buses running to Disney. But they would not be OK with a truly high capacity service that is not in their sole control, running service to Disney. Go figure.

Interesting observation.

But surely Disney doesn't consider itself a transportation company. It's not as if you need to come to Disneyworld on a Disney bus to be able to enjoy it properly. I would assume the real reason they don't leave transportation to others is that they don't trust others to do it right. Poor experience in transportation might reflect poorly on the overall experience.

But if somebody would come in and offer a consistently high standard of service, maybe higher than Disney themselves could reasonably provide, would Disney still be opposed to that?

 

[jis]

So far they have been opposed to anyone else providing service to Disney. They do not want to lose their Parking Fees franchise for those that come in by cars and anyone coming in by public transport, they want them to arrive sufficiently far away where they can pick them up in their own transport, the fee for which is included in the integral Disney experience package charges. It is all about money. They do not want to hand over that money to someone else. It is a pretty significant profit center.

I suppose if someone compensates them for each parking fee lost they might be willing to play ball, sort of similar to how Beach Line Expressway Toll folks have negotiated a toll surcharge from AAF for each passenger using the Beach Line segment of Brightline. But unfortunately, in case of Disney daily parking charges that is a rater enormous amount, nit piddly two dollars or less as in case of the highway toll.

 

[cirdan]

So far they have been opposed to anyone else providing service to Disney. They do not want to lose their Parking Fees franchise for those that come in by cars and anyone coming in by public transport, they want them to arrive sufficiently far away where they can pick them up in their own transport, the fee for which is included in the integral Disney experience package charges. It is all about money. They do not want to hand over that money to someone else. It is a pretty significant profit center.

I suppose if someone compensates them for each parking fee lost they might be willing to play ball, sort of similar to how Beach Line Expressway Toll folks have negotiated a toll surcharge from AAF for each passenger using the Beach Line segment of Brightline. But unfortunately, in case of Disney daily parking charges that is a rater enormous amount, nit piddly two dollars or less as in case of the highway toll.

Ok, I understand. So basically the Disney bus does make a worthwhile profit for Disney.

 

[A Voice]

Disney actually prefers capturing its customers as soon as they get off the plane, onto their own transport. The Disney experience begins at the airport. That is why they have resisted building public transport from airport to Disney properties. Same will be true with Brightline. Amtrak simply does not carry a sufficiently large number of people to Disney for Disney to worry about it too much. They would be and are OK with random Lynx buses running to Disney. But they would not be OK with a truly high capacity service that is not in their sole control, running service to Disney. Go figure.

Interesting observation.

But surely Disney doesn't consider itself a transportation company. It's not as if you need to come to Disneyworld on a Disney bus to be able to enjoy it properly. I would assume the real reason they don't leave transportation to others is that they don't trust others to do it right. Poor experience in transportation might reflect poorly on the overall experience.

But if somebody would come in and offer a consistently high standard of service, maybe higher than Disney themselves could reasonably provide, would Disney still be opposed to that?

The buses which transport guests from the airport to the Walt Disney World Resorts, and also the Disney Cruise Line buses, are both actually operated by Mears transportation under contract.

The motor coaches utilized for the service, however, are branded for either the Disney Cruise Line or Disney's Magical Express.

 

[jis]

So far they have been opposed to anyone else providing service to Disney. They do not want to lose their Parking Fees franchise for those that come in by cars and anyone coming in by public transport, they want them to arrive sufficiently far away where they can pick them up in their own transport, the fee for which is included in the integral Disney experience package charges. It is all about money. They do not want to hand over that money to someone else. It is a pretty significant profit center.

I suppose if someone compensates them for each parking fee lost they might be willing to play ball, sort of similar to how Beach Line Expressway Toll folks have negotiated a toll surcharge from AAF for each passenger using the Beach Line segment of Brightline. But unfortunately, in case of Disney daily parking charges that is a rater enormous amount, nit piddly two dollars or less as in case of the highway toll.

Ok, I understand. So basically the Disney bus does make a worthwhile profit for Disney.

I don't know if Disney bus makes a profit in and of itself. Disney's claim is that if you book a Dsiney package, they will take care of everything once you set foot off the plane. That is done via contract with Mears, and that service carries just Disney arrivals and departures by air passengers between Disney and OIA.

What really makes profit is the parking fees. Or at least so I have been given to understand. And as soon as you let in an external - extremely convenient and fast general public transport access which you cannot charge a compensatory fee equivalent to the lost parking fee, you lose your margins. unless of course this new service brings in so much more custom that it balances out. Apparently their studies and simulations so far suggest that would not be the case. hence no public transit access to Disney.

So m y speculation is that if Disney ran out of parking space on sight, they might set up a remote parking lot somewhere in St. Cloud or such, and run Disney branded shuttles (possibly run by Mears) to shuttle passengers from there to Disney, but will resist setting up an HSR station at Disney. Just my guess, having observed their behavior in Orlando area transportation planning. Evidently they are happy to treat Brightline like another airline bringing passengers to the airport. they will have a checkin desk at the South Terminal and it is entirely possible that Brightline will set up some joint arrangement with Disney for integrated packages, with Disney provided bus connection from OIA like for air passengers. But the bottom line will be that anyone who has not purchased such a package will not be transported by Disney buses nor will Disney allow any convenient general public transport to haul them over. Slow Lynx buses ar OK I suppose. Their preference for those guys is to buy the Disney package with parking and rent a car at OIA.

At least this is how I understand their overall philosophy.

Surprisingly there are similarities between this and the Port Authority of NY and NJ which insists on charging a huge markup for anyone using the convenient rail connection to Newark and JFK, a charge which is effectively covering for lost parking revenues to some extent. Slow clunkylocal buses are OK and are not charged the huge markup.

 

[Caesar La Rock]

That reasoning with Disney, coupled with competition by Mears (who coincidentally got hired as a contractor for Lynx back in 2014) is why Lynx's proposed express route from OIA to Disney World has been put on hold for the time being. Lynx buses aren't really slow, they travel vast distances and on roads heavily prone to traffic, making the journey times longer as I've seen first hand.

I've been riding the system for 21 years, the morale of the system hasn't changed in 21 years. Its funding structure is still the same as Tri-County Transit's funding was back in 1992 and it doesn't have enough buses to pull off increased service for its 2,500 square mile service area. Only when that changes is when Lynx will be more adequate to handle ridership from both Sunrail and Brightline trains.

 

[Seaboard92]

Well the other thing about Disney is they brand themselves as an experience and they want to control as much of that as they can. So the shuttles they contract out to Meers makes sense but likely keep designated equipment on it that is of a very high standard. And of course there is big money blocking any sort of public transit to Disney as well. Being Meers as that probably brings them a lot of money.

 

[cirdan]

Yes, it makes sense. I didn't realize it was that complicated.

But just to imagine a hypothetical parallel universe. If there was a Brightline station right slap in front of Disney's main entrance, Disney could codeshare its customers onto Brightline trains coming from Miami and other Brightline stations. They could then charge whatever beefed up premium fare they wanted. If Brightline agreed not to sell tickets to the Disney station, everybody getting off there would be a Disney passenger and there wouldn't really be a competition situation, but the same trains would be used by passengers between non Disney destinations. Basically not having to switch from a train to a bus would make the overall experience more attractive.

That probably would never happen as I guess Disney doesn't really get trains and management see priorities elsewhere. But in a hypothetical parallel universe.

 

[MARC Rider]

So far they have been opposed to anyone else providing service to Disney. They do not want to lose their Parking Fees franchise for those that come in by cars and anyone coming in by public transport, they want them to arrive sufficiently far away where they can pick them up in their own transport, the fee for which is included in the integral Disney experience package charges. It is all about money. They do not want to hand over that money to someone else. It is a pretty significant profit center.

I suppose if someone compensates them for each parking fee lost they might be willing to play ball, sort of similar to how Beach Line Expressway Toll folks have negotiated a toll surcharge from AAF for each passenger using the Beach Line segment of Brightline. But unfortunately, in case of Disney daily parking charges that is a rater enormous amount, nit piddly two dollars or less as in case of the highway toll.

Ok, I understand. So basically the Disney bus does make a worthwhile profit for Disney.

I don't know if Disney bus makes a profit in and of itself. Disney's claim is that if you book a Dsiney package, they will take care of everything once you set foot off the plane. That is done via contract with Mears, and that service carries just Disney arrivals and departures by air passengers between Disney and OIA.
What really makes profit is the parking fees. Or at least so I have been given to understand. And as soon as you let in an external - extremely convenient and fast general public transport access which you cannot charge a compensatory fee equivalent to the lost parking fee, you lose your margins. unless of course this new service brings in so much more custom that it balances out. Apparently their studies and simulations so far suggest that would not be the case. hence no public transit access to Disney.

So m y speculation is that if Disney ran out of parking space on sight, they might set up a remote parking lot somewhere in St. Cloud or such, and run Disney branded shuttles (possibly run by Mears) to shuttle passengers from there to Disney, but will resist setting up an HSR station at Disney. Just my guess, having observed their behavior in Orlando area transportation planning. Evidently they are happy to treat Brightline like another airline bringing passengers to the airport. they will have a checkin desk at the South Terminal and it is entirely possible that Brightline will set up some joint arrangement with Disney for integrated packages, with Disney provided bus connection from OIA like for air passengers. But the bottom line will be that anyone who has not purchased such a package will not be transported by Disney buses nor will Disney allow any convenient general public transport to haul them over. Slow Lynx buses ar OK I suppose. Their preference for those guys is to buy the Disney package with parking and rent a car at OIA.

At least this is how I understand their overall philosophy.

Surprisingly there are similarities between this and the Port Authority of NY and NJ which insists on charging a huge markup for anyone using the convenient rail connection to Newark and JFK, a charge which is effectively covering for lost parking revenues to some extent. Slow clunkylocal buses are OK and are not charged the huge markup.

When we did the Disneyworld trip, we stayed at a Disney hotel and the parking was free. And free bus/boat/monorail transportation to all points on the property. Except the last day when we were flying out in the afternoon and had to spend $20 to park.

 

[jis]

According to some reports the Brightline consist was delivered to New Orleans by UP ahead of schedule, yesterday (12th) instead of the scheduled early morning today (13th).

 

[jis]

Somewhat reliable source unofficially has it that it arrives into Bowden Yard in JAX sometime this afternoon.

It will be run as a special move from there to WPB following the normal nightly run of FEC train #121 tonight (12/13/16).

 

[PRR 60]

Those who stay on-site at a WDW hotel get free parking, not only in the hotel lot, but in any of the general parking lots at the theme parks. A hotel guest can use the internal transportation system (bus, monorail), or can drive from park to park as they "park hop." Your resort ID gets you parking access in all general lots.

As for transport to and from MCO, shared-ride van is limited to the Disney service (contracted to Mears), but other non-Disney-branded services are available from cabs to Mears flat-rate vans and limos. Some of those options can be reasonable depending on the number in the party. I would assume that when Brightline opens at MCO that the situation will be similar.

For many, if not most business purposes for visiting Orlando, the MCO airport station is probably more convenient than a downtown stop. For better or worse, most business meetings that take place in "Orlando" actually take place at International Drive, Sea World and WDW venues. Even the Orange County Convention Center is located on International Drive. I've probably had a dozen or more meetings to attend in Orlando, and only one was located sort of in center city. From that aspect, Brightline making MCO their Orlando terminal makes sense.

 

[cirdan]

For many, if not most business purposes for visiting Orlando, the MCO airport station is probably more convenient than a downtown stop. For better or worse, most business meetings that take place in "Orlando" actually take place at International Drive, Sea World and WDW venues. Even the Orange County Convention Center is located on International Drive. I've probably had a dozen or more meetings to attend in Orlando, and only one was located sort of in center city. From that aspect, Brightline making MCO their Orlando terminal makes sense.

Agreed. But then airport to International Drive is still a bit of a trek. Lynx is OK but not that frequent and you need a lot of time. Taxi is expensive and quickly relativizes the savings of catching a train in the first place.

In the longer term I think it would make sense to extend Sunrail beyond the airport and have a stop in the broader International Drive sort of area. .

 

[jis]

Maybe you missed the bit about Brightline doing combined ticketing including Uber/Lyft for the last mile at both ends.

There really is very little business case for spending enormous amounts of money to acquire the real estate to put the station anywhere else as far as AAF is concerned.

If I am going for a business trip to Orlando, neither SunRail nor Lynx is anywhere near the top of my list of transportation to use locally, and that will remain the case for decades as far as I can tell. It is always some combination of Taxi/Uber/Lyft/Rental Car.

Maybe you don't understand the lay of the land given that you suggest extending SunRail from the Airport to I Drive. There is a plan to build some rail based system between the airport and I Drive at some point in the future. But it is neither SunRail nor AAF. It will most likely be an elevated system LRT/Monorail/Maglev whatever other comes to people's mind. Haven't heard Hyperloop mentioned yet LOL!

 

[Anderson]

Jis,

When the bullet train was still on the table, I remember Disney being potentially cooperative with that (they indicated that if the train went via one of the options on the table they'd cut their Mears service). This at least suggests that there is a viable price (probably not $2/ticket, but perhaps $5-7, given the roughly $20/day parking charge for non-passholders and given that they'd be cutting a substantial amount of bus service in the process). I suspect had it been a total non-starter Disney wouldn't have bothered to entreat the option and would've just argued for a different routing, perhaps not even formally, and probably would have gotten it.

Then again, the prospect of there being a stop potentially convenient to Universal/Sea World (at International Drive, though I don't know where at I-Drive) but not WDW might also have played a role in that proposal as well.

 

[jis]

The first Brightline consist crossing the St. Johns River in Jacksonville enroute to FEC's Bowden Yard today.

http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2016/12/13-brightline-on-fec-rails#.WFBZ7csgxv8.facebook

 

[Mystic River Dragon]

Oh, what a lovely photo--with the water and boats and blue sky, it looks right at home there in Florida! (It looked a bit out of place going through the desert!)

 

[jis]

Jis,

When the bullet train was still on the table, I remember Disney being potentially cooperative with that (they indicated that if the train went via one of the options on the table they'd cut their Mears service). This at least suggests that there is a viable price (probably not $2/ticket, but perhaps $5-7, given the roughly $20/day parking charge for non-passholders and given that they'd be cutting a substantial amount of bus service in the process). I suspect had it been a total non-starter Disney wouldn't have bothered to entreat the option and would've just argued for a different routing, perhaps not even formally, and probably would have gotten it.

Then again, the prospect of there being a stop potentially convenient to Universal/Sea World (at International Drive, though I don't know where at I-Drive) but not WDW might also have played a role in that proposal as well.

As I said, nothing is ever a total non-starter. There is always a deal that can be made for an appropriate sum of money changing hands. The question is, is it really worth the money in question to the one that has to hand the money over to someone else. AAF couldn't really care less locating a station at a place that will cost them an arm and a leg to acquire the property to even get there, let alone then pay salutations to someone else for the right to runt rains to there. As long as it was Uncle Sam's largess involved, of course everyone could line upto the trough and try to suck in as much as they could. And why not?

But as far as AAF is concerned, given the financial and regulatory environment that it is working within. OIA provides an ideal location which already has connectivity toe everywhere in Orlando in place and more of it in the plans. If they should wish to grow towards Tampa, there is an ROW available to get them to I-4 ROW. And all this at the right price. Anything else will cost an order of magnitude more and the incremental cost would probably never be recovered. AAF has been told in no uncertain terms that the only thing that Florida State will support is possibly issuance of favorable terms bonds, and some help in negotiating access to ROW, but preferably with no use of eminent domain, and no direct state funding. That is a pretty constrained environment to work in.I don;t see that changing until there is a sea change in Tallahassee

 

[jis]

Brightline consists arrives in West Palm Beach

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10154869699054602&set=a.90311689601.103783.537714601&type=3&theater

 

[cirdan]

But as far as AAF is concerned, given the financial and regulatory environment that it is working within. OIA provides an ideal location which already has connectivity toe everywhere in Orlando in place and more of it in the plans. If they should wish to grow towards Tampa, there is an ROW available to get them to I-4 ROW. And all this at the right price. Anything else will cost an order of magnitude more and the incremental cost would probably never be recovered. AAF has been told in no uncertain terms that the only thing that Florida State will support is possibly issuance of favorable terms bonds, and some help in negotiating access to ROW, but preferably with no use of eminent domain, and no direct state funding. That is a pretty constrained environment to work in.I don;t see that changing until there is a sea change in Tallahassee

Let's wait until Brightine has been up and running for a few years and there are real tangible and visible benefits along the route and changes in commuting and genberal travelling behavior and preferences.

Attitudes, in politics, in business and by individuals do change over time, especially if evidence changes, and then many of the points you mention will be open to reconsideration.

And it's then that projects that are shovel ready, as in somebody has already done some preliminary planning and has some ridership foreacsts and costs on the table that will clearly have an advantage over those who have been in denial and have been claiming trains are bad bad bad.

I actually know the I-drive area because I used to attend a once yearly work-related convention there. The convention has actually been relocated to a more transit friendly location precisely because there was negative feedback from participants from places like Germany and Japan where it is considered totally normal that you can ride transit from the airport to the convention and back.

 

[jis]

There is a plan to construct a transit link from OIA to I-Drive. There is space set aside in the South Terminal internmodal station together with the ROW to be used on airport property to get it to connect to the planned routing along SR528/Sandlake Road.Most recently there was talk of some kind of a Maglev, but that seems to have died down for now, and according to latest reports, is pretty much dead. OIA Board of Directors decided back in Dec 2015 to start negotiating with an LRT project (run by the same guy who was trying to build the Maglev, which got shot down on technical grounds) on details of the ROW on airport property, which is broadly set aside along the west side of the AAF ROW from the intermodal station to SR528. However, even that effort seems to have stalled since Morris failed to bring a final agreement to the Board to vote on by mid 2016.

However, the plan as far as the MPO of Orlando is concerned is still to build some kind of local transit system between OIA and I-Drive/Convention Center. The original plan called for high speed light rail roughly along Sandlake Road to I-Drive and then down to the Convention Center along I-Drive, possibly on an elevated structure. But this being Florida, one never knows if anything will ever get built at all, until it actually happens.

Whatever is built, according to impression gathered from private conversations with folks at AAF so far, will not be AAF. If AAF is built out to Tampa - very big if at this point, it will exit the airport near the south exit, and then follow SR417 ROW to I-4 Median. It is going to be a much more expensive project overall than the Cocoa - OIA link, and will not be constructed unless there is money forthcoming from the state, the feds or both.

 

[A Voice]

If AAF is built out to Tampa - very big if at this point, it will exit the airport near the south exit, and then follow SR417 ROW to I-4 Median. It is going to be a much more expensive project overall than the Cocoa - OIA link, and will not be constructed unless there is money forthcoming from the state, the feds or both.

Should AAF ever build in the Interstate 4 ROW, the route would pass directly through Walt Disney World property, so for those dreaming of a possible Disney station, that would be the (slim) possibility. Again, as Jis noted, that's a really big if. Frankly, despite assurances financing will not derail the project, I'm not completely convinced AAF will ever reach Orlando, let alone further expansion. In their defense, I didn't think they'd get as far as they have already either, so we'll see.

 

[jis]

If AAF is built out to Tampa - very big if at this point, it will exit the airport near the south exit, and then follow SR417 ROW to I-4 Median. It is going to be a much more expensive project overall than the Cocoa - OIA link, and will not be constructed unless there is money forthcoming from the state, the feds or both.

Should AAF ever build in the Interstate 4 ROW, the route would pass directly through Walt Disney World property, so for those dreaming of a possible Disney station, that would be the (slim) possibility. Again, as Jis noted, that's a really big if. Frankly, despite assurances financing will not derail the project, I'm not completely convinced AAF will ever reach Orlando, let alone further expansion. In their defense, I didn't think they'd get as far as they have already either, so we'll see.

Oh either they will reach Orlando or they will shut down entirely. Long term, they don't really have a business case without reaching Orlando, unless they are able to capture an extremely unexpectedly high proportion of traffic between Miami and WPB. Heck, anything is possible I guess. The beauty of their approach is that the real estate developments around the train stations will not necessarily crash and burn if the trains cannot be run profitably. The net profitability will be significantly lower due to horrendous traffic etc.

There really is no particular reason that they won't reach Orlando. The rearranging of the bond into tranches is ll about increasing the ease of getting there and making the construction through Martin and Indian River Counties entirely independent of any bond issuance. They are using bond money to finance the West Palm beach segment instead post facto, and transferring internal money to construct through those two counties. They should not have any difficulty with county specific bond issuance for Brevard or Orange counties.

If they build to Tampa, they won't be on I-4 median north of the SR417 intersection, so they will be far from Walt Disney World Property, which is mostly to the north of there.

There is very little that stops them from reverting the whole thing to a Miami - JAX service, in the remote case that Orlando fails to materialize. That expansion is relatively cheap, possibly cheaper than the Cocoa - Orlando segment if they already have the segment upto Cocoa even halfway in place. It does not require double tracking all the way, just a bunch of judiciously placed crossing sidings and a few stations on their own property with associated real estate development to fund most of it.

 

[Brian_tampa]

If AAF is built out to Tampa - very big if at this point, it will exit the airport near the south exit, and then follow SR417 ROW to I-4 Median. It is going to be a much more expensive project overall than the Cocoa - OIA link, and will not be constructed unless there is money forthcoming from the state, the feds or both.

Should AAF ever build in the Interstate 4 ROW, the route would pass directly through Walt Disney World property, so for those dreaming of a possible Disney station, that would be the (slim) possibility. Again, as Jis noted, that's a really big if. Frankly, despite assurances financing will not derail the project, I'm not completely convinced AAF will ever reach Orlando, let alone further expansion. In their defense, I didn't think they'd get as far as they have already either, so we'll see.

Oh either they will reach Orlando or they will shut down entirely. Long term, they don't really have a business case without reaching Orlando, unless they are able to capture an extremely unexpectedly high proportion of traffic between Miami and WPB. Heck, anything is possible I guess. The beauty of their approach is that the real estate developments around the train stations will not necessarily crash and burn if the trains cannot be run profitably. The net profitability will be significantly lower due to horrendous traffic etc.

There really is no particular reason that they won't reach Orlando. The rearranging of the bond into tranches is ll about increasing the ease of getting there and making the construction through Martin and Indian River Counties entirely independent of any bond issuance. They are using bond money to finance the West Palm beach segment instead post facto, and transferring internal money to construct through those two counties. They should not have any difficulty with county specific bond issuance for Brevard or Orange counties.

If they build to Tampa, they won't be on I-4 median north of the SR417 intersection, so they will be far from Walt Disney World Property, which is mostly to the north of there.

There is very little that stops them from reverting the whole thing to a Miami - JAX service, in the remote case that Orlando fails to materialize. That expansion is relatively cheap, possibly cheaper than the Cocoa - Orlando segment if they already have the segment upto Cocoa even halfway in place. It does not require double tracking all the way, just a bunch of judiciously placed crossing sidings and a few stations on their own property with associated real estate development to fund most of it.

I agree about the rearranging of the PAB tranches in order to avoid funding the Treasure Coast. However, I don't think they will build the Jacksonville to Cocoa (or Miami if Orlando isn't built) section anytime soon as the traffic is not there to support the 300 miles of upgraded track. However, the Tampa expansion seems more doable based on potential traffic between SE Florida and Tampa as well as the heavy local traffic between Tampa and Orlando. Even at 3 lanes each direction, I-4 is packed almost 7 days a week no matter the time of day. I have copied the trip numbers between each region of Florida below from the 2006 Florida Rail Vision plan. Although a bit dated, it shows that trips between Tampa and SE Florida alone are half of Orlando to SE Florida. Additional trips between Tampa and Orlando are very high and would add to the total traffic on any Tampa expansion. Trips to/from Jacksonville/NE Florida are not that significant in comparison.

I haven't heard anything before now about AAF using 417 to get to I-4. Is that what AAF unofficially has told you? I had always assumed they would follow 428 to the convention center area (along the old proposed HSR route) and try to pick up a stop around Universal or WDW versus 417 which skips those areas as you state.

http://www.fdot.gov/rail/Publications/Plans/06VisionPlan/ExecReportFinal.pdf

Florida Intercity Travel in Selected Markets

Market Total Person Trips (2000) Total Person Trips (2020) Total Person Trips (2040)

S.E. Florida - Central Florida 9,446,524 18,420,722 30,394,191

S.E. Florida - Tampa Bay 4,850,862 8,537,517 14,086,903

S.E. Florida-N.E. Florida 1,304,613 2,283,073 3,767,070

Central Florida-Tampa Bay 14,156,497 29,162,384 48,117,933

Central Florida-N.E. Florida 3,537,194 7,321,992 12,081,286

Tampa Bay-N.E. Florida 1,545,914 2,906,318 4,795,425

 

[cirdan]

Whatever is built, according to impression gathered from private conversations with folks at AAF so far, will not be AAF. If AAF is built out to Tampa - very big if at this point, it will exit the airport near the south exit, and then follow SR417 ROW to I-4 Median. It is going to be a much more expensive project overall than the Cocoa - OIA link, and will not be constructed unless there is money forthcoming from the state, the feds or both.

I agree that it's unlikley that AAF will go to Tampa, at least not within the next 20 years or so. Maybe at some point the Florida HSR might get revived but this is a very big maybe.