Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[jis]

As a sage philosopher said, the main purpose of governing laws is to keep a bad government from doing too much harm

 

[Ziv]

GML, I am a Realtor, and when I have a client looking at buying a house in a Home Owners Association, I tell them "The great thing about an HOA is it doesn't allow your neighbors do anything really stupid to the outside of their home. The negative aspect of an HOA is that it doesn't allow you to do a lot of really cool things to the outside of your property." And then I grin at them. Most of them laugh.

Gridlock is kind of similar in a way. It hampers your team and that feels like a negative, but it also hampers the other team in their efforts to do "stupid" things, so it kind of balances out.

I just want to see Brightline up and running, and from Miami all the way to Orlando would be outstanding. I have been so irritated by the NS and CAF fiascos, any movement forward on rail is doubly welcome.

If memory serves, the FECR extends from Miami to Jacksonville. Now THAT would be a cool route for Brightline to cover, eventually. I drove from College Park MD to Key West back in 1984 for Spring Break. The half way point was about 60 miles north of the Florida line, if memory serves. Florida is a huge state. Having a decent train serving north to south would be a great transportation option.

Maybe someone can notify Trump of the government paperwork delays which are hindering private business construction.

This is not a political post, so both mods and members don't treat it as one.

The protections against action in our constitution, our laws, and our regulations are always a double edged sword so be careful what you wish for.

Donald Trump, like him or not, is a fast-change leader- that's probably the only thing both sides can agree on.

All of the perceived good things that Trump's supporters believe he will do for our country, those are going to be slowed, muddled, or stopped altogether by the slowing gum of that regulatory system. Whatever good he does or intends to do will be affected and slowed by it.

Flip side: All of the perceived bad things that Trumps detractors believe he will do for our country, those things are going to be slowed, muddled, or stopped altogether by the gum of that same regulatory system. Whatever bad he does or intends to do will be affected and slowed by it.

As you can see from my identically worded presentation I am not taking sides on our President at this time. I personally feel I should let him have the same 100 days as every other president to judge him (although I believe people should voice (and more so mount) all opposition to specific issues they have. He has been in office for 17 days. I am inclined to give him the the remaining 83 before taking an overall position.

Especially since, as far as I can tell, both sides of the Trump debate seem to be actually totally clueless as to the mans intentions. E.G. There are members on this board who support Trump because they feel certain his intention is to greatly improve transit, while others detest him because they feel certain his intent is to obliterate it.

I personally don't have a clue. And my experience is that this is the case either when the perpetuating subject is clueless- or has a carefully devised plan that he is hiding because no matter how good the plan may or may not be, somebody will object to it, and he wants to implement it before people figure out what it is. I favor the latter, for better or worse.

My main point is that we should be careful when we object to the gummy works of our government. For as many things that we want that it slows or spoils, it slows or spoils things we don't want.

Mods: if you think parts of my post are unjustified, feel free to delete anything you see as excessively political. But please leave the first five paragraphs and the one above this instruction. I think it is too important a point.

 

[jis]

Ziv, we at the halfway point between Miami and Jacksonville on the FECR are looking forward eagerly to the Orlando service, mainly because we have been given to understand that any further expansion of service depends on a successful operation of the Orlando service. If that does not happen then all bets are off. So far it looks promising in spite a of a few skeptics around like The Voice. But with these things you really never know until the proverbial fat lady sings.

 

[Steve4031]

GML. That was well stated. As was the HOA analogy. Hopefully the process results in continuing improvements in the infrastructure of our country.

 

[cirdan]

Sorry if this is a stupid question.I'm getting a bit confused here.

The real purpose of AAF is to boost the real estate holdings of Fortress Investment Group.

That means, they want to leverage the value of the site at Miami so they can charge high rents.

AAF is also developing stations at WPB and Fort Lauderdale. Whereas these sites will also generate some rental revenue, I'm assuming that is just incidental. The real cherry on the cake here is Miami.

Now at the Orlando end, Fortress doesn't own the land and doesn't own the terminal. In fact AAF will pay rent to the airport authority. And seeing the airport is forfeiting taxi and parking income, the charges for the station are not exactly going to be cheap.

So what we have here is a real estate company paying to rent somebody else's real estate.

In other words, Miami is going to have to be so profitable that it can offset all the costs at Orlando, plus the costs of running a railroad, plus make a profit.

Is that realistic?

Or are they maybe secretly planning to stop when Phase 1 is done? Will the combined effects of Brightline and Tri Rail provide sufficient leverage that the reral estate business in Miami can fly?

 

[jis]

As far as I have heard from them they expect Brightline service to be profitable by itself, and help enhance the value of their properties. My understanding is that they do not expect to reach profitability of Brightline by itself until they have service up and running to Orlando.

Cost of Orlando has to be borne completely by Brightline in their plans. Their business plan assumes that rail operations will not need subsidy from real estate when it is up and running completely, but will require startup subsidy for several years.

I don't understand how Orlando Airport will forfeit taxi and parking income for AAF. In fact it will be getting additional taxi and parking income from those who come to the airport to ride on Brightline.

Wih the railroad they are trying to capture some 2-4% of the total travel market between Miami Metro Area and Orlando. That is where the money is in the travel market.

 

[Ziv]

Cirdan, everything I have read seems to indicate that Fortress is a real estate company first and foremost, as you note. But, I think Miami won't work nearly as well without traffic from Orlando. Having a railroad with just one major destination would be a recipe for mediocrity, or for a small, one line commuter service. Having the two very different cities/counties as hubs/destinations would make Brightline the tie that binds, so to speak.

IF, and that is a major qualifier, if Fortress thinks they can work Tampa or Jacksonville in profitably, they may do so. Orlando brings a huge amount to the table at a reasonable price. I am not sure that Tampa does.

It is possible that a Jacksonville route would be profitable for Fortress by increasing their land values in northern Florida, with a relatively moderate investment on Fortress' part.

 

[Eric S]

I would think that Orlando Airport could potentially lose parking and taxi income from improved and expanded local/regional transit services (whether a SunRail commuter rail extension or the proposed light rail line) but that Brightline intercity rail service would, at worst, have a negligible negative impact and would quite likely have a positive impact on such income for the airport.

 

[cirdan]

I would think that Orlando Airport could potentially lose parking and taxi income from improved and expanded local/regional transit services (whether a SunRail commuter rail extension or the proposed light rail line) but that Brightline intercity rail service would, at worst, have a negligible negative impact and would quite likely have a positive impact on such income for the airport.

This is an interesting discussion.

People might drive from all over the Orlano metro area to park their car in Orlando airport and then ride Brightline to Miami. That is a net positive for the airport.

But then there may also be people in places like West Palm Beach who presently drive to Orlando to park and catch a plane, who may in future use Brightline.

Then there is also the question of how well Brightline is marketed to tourists. So a tourist who doesn't know Brightline exists may well book a rental car in advance and then use that from Orlando. But if that tourist is aware of Brightline in advance and Brightline goes where they want to go, the airport is losing out (especially if Brightline can convince rental car companies to establish offices at Brightline's other stations).

 

[jis]

But then there may also be people in places like West Palm Beach who presently drive to Orlando to park and catch a plane, who may in future use Brightline.

That is a very small proportion. WPB is not considered to be within the catchment area of MCO at all. They tend to go to West Palm beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami Airports from the Palm Beach area rather than to Orlando, Melbourne or Sanford.

Then there is also the question of how well Brightline is marketed to tourists. So a tourist who doesn't know Brightline exists may well book a rental car in advance and then use that from Orlando. But if that tourist is aware of Brightline in advance and Brightline goes where they want to go, the airport is losing out (especially if Brightline can convince rental car companies to establish offices at Brightline's other stations).

Orlando Airport is not very worried about it, neither should you be . As I mentioned above AAF is hoping to capture maybe tops 5% of the overall Orlando - Palm Beach - Miami market. 95% will still continue dong what they do. The impact of Brightline on overall usage of the facilities that are worrying you will be at the margins at least for the next decade. Attitude towards trains may change and a more connected network might develop some day to change the situation. but it will take a long time in Florida.

As it turns out a small percentage of an enormous market may prove to be adequate to self-support the operation. or that is what Gene Skorpowski and Co's projections and business plans say.

And yes, Brightline will be establishing relationships with rental car companies as well as Uber/Lyft to provide a seamless experience to its customers. So that is not an "if". That is a certainty. But still skimming off 5% from a relatively fast growing and huge market does not seem to concern any of the airports. Orlando Airport actually seems to believe that what they gain in high value customers through access provided by Brightline from WPB will far outweigh any losses to the same access. Remember, Orlando Airport is also a big mall and a hotel, and will be more so with its own growth, adn access of any kind is a good thing. That is why they don;t mind SunRail either.

 

[jis]

An interesting article in NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/04/travel/places-to-go-transit-2017.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FHigh-Speed+Rail+Projects&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection&_r=0

 

[neroden]

In other words, Miami is going to have to be so profitable that it can offset all the costs at Orlando, plus the costs of running a railroad, plus make a profit.

Is that realistic?

Yes, at least until Miami sinks under the waves. The passenger service is probably roughly a breakeven operation, probably a bit better than breakeven, maybe a bit worse. The value of the real estate in Miami will shoot up when it's connected to Orlando and to to the Orlando airport which has more flights than the Miami Airport IIRC.
It might even make sense to extend it to Tampa just to attract visitors from Tampa to Miami.

If I were them, I'd actually be selectively buying up property along potential station locations on the route to Tampa, probably through a vaguely-named subsidiary.

 

[brianpmcdonnell17]

In other words, Miami is going to have to be so profitable that it can offset all the costs at Orlando, plus the costs of running a railroad, plus make a profit.

Is that realistic?

Yes, at least until Miami sinks under the waves. The passenger service is probably roughly a breakeven operation, probably a bit better than breakeven, maybe a bit worse. The value of the real estate in Miami will shoot up when it's connected to Orlando and to to the Orlando airport which has more flights than the Miami Airport IIRC.
It might even make sense to extend it to Tampa just to attract visitors from Tampa to Miami.

If I were them, I'd actually be selectively buying up property along potential station locations on the route to Tampa, probably through a vaguely-named subsidiary.

While I would really like to see it extended to Tampa, I doubt they will be able to buy much if any real estate along that route. It is in a highway median, largely through already developed areas. In addition, Brightline seems to prefer to have an express service, so it is possible Tampa would be the only stop. If Tampa Union Station is used, there is some available real estate nearby, although it's urban location will likely make it expensive. While the routing into the station must be figured out, Union Station seems like the logical location to terminate potential future Brightline service. The only areas other than Tampa that I could possibly foresee getting a station on a Tampa extension are Lakeland and near Disney World.

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

Aren't they more concerned with developing land they already own rather than newly purchased property?

 

[Brian_tampa]

It's been a while since I posted, but here goes.

To the thought that Jacksonville is guaranteed first expansion city before Tampa, consider this. Maybe the access agreement that AAF signed with FECR was done with the knowledge that Fortress was considering selling FECR to a separate entity and Fortress wanted to protect AAF'S future expansion by signing an agreement with a sister company? On the other hand, AAF has been closely working the past few years with FDOT to preserve the rail ROW in the median of I4 between FL528 near Orlando and downtown Tampa...

Orlando expansion will happen before Jacksonville. As other posters have stated, the project is not doable without the traffic that Orlando will generate. Remember the invester grade report that FECI commissioned back in 2012? That wasn't for nothing folks. They know where the passengers are going to be. It isn't necessarily Miami to Jacksonville, sorry.

@Metra Electric Rider yes, FECI owns alot of land in S Florida and along the FECR. But, I've done research a couple of years ago and can say that AAF/FECI has bought ALOT of additional properties within a mile of their stations in FLL and WPB. FECI is a real estate development company. They aren't going to just sit on what they have.

In regards to Tampa, they will NOT ever use TUS as their terminal. It's hard to gain access to, and given CSX'S recent history with the TECO streetcar crossing, they are very opposed to additional passenger trains on or crossing their line through Ybor City to Lakeland. AAF will build a station closer to I275 and Florida Ave where there is alot of state and city owned empty land. I can foresee some deals made between FECI/AAF and the governments to redevelop that area. It's the last relatively empty part of downtown Tampa left that has easy access to the rail ROW in the median of I4. And the local bus transit center/hub is next door, along with the potential for a future light rail line going west to the airport and Pinellas County and the beaches.

One last observation, on the construction plans for the Orlando segment why is the new AAF right of way referenced with mile markings that show Mile 90+ something at the Orlando airport? And the numbers increase going east! I've always wondered if that meant anything and where exactly would Mile 0 be?

 

[Brian_tampa]

On a side note, I just read this article in the WPB paper about impacts on traffic and trains caused by Trump's visits to his mansion on Palm Beach island.

http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2017/02/08/president-trump-to-arrive-in-palm-beach-county-during-rush-hour-friday/

Obviously this will impact Brightline as well as FECR for the next 4 years. It already has caused delays for TriRail. Can you imagine closing 8 lane I95 down in both directions during a Friday afternoon rush hour for at least 30 minutes? Wow.... what is Trump thinking? Lol

 

[brianpmcdonnell17]

One last observation, on the construction plans for the Orlando segment why is the new AAF right of way referenced with mile markings that show Mile 90+ something at the Orlando airport? And the numbers increase going east! I've always wondered if that meant anything and where exactly would Mile 0 be?

Considering that FEC is headquartered in the Jacksonville area, that is probably mile 0. Since the tracks will curve away from mile 0 at Cocoa, it makes sense to have the numbers increase rather than decrease.

 

[jis]

Just a reality check ...

Distance between Jacksonville and Cocoa is 152 miles by road

Distance between Cocoa and Orlando is about 38 miles by road

Distance between Tampa and Orlando Airport is about 84 miles by road

So I have no idea where the 90+ comes from.

Incidentally Cocoa to New Smyrna Beach where FEC has a large establishment is about 52 miles, which added to the 38 miles to OIA brings the number close to 90. Just an observation, nothing more.

 

[brianpmcdonnell17]

Just a reality check ...

Distance between Jacksonville and Cocoa is 152 miles by road

Distance between Cocoa and Orlando is about 38 miles by road

Distance between Tampa and Orlando Airport is about 84 miles by road

So I have no idea where the 90+ comes from.

Incidentally Cocoa to New Smyrna Beach where FEC has a large establishment is about 52 miles, which added to the 38 miles to OIA brings the number close to 90. Just an observation, nothing more.

According to Wikipedia, St. Augustine to Cocoa is 136 miles by rail. That would put OIA at 98 miles. I believe FEC was once headquartered in St. Augustine so it is possible that St. Augustine could be milepost 0.

 

[Brian_tampa]

On the drawings I'm referring to, the miles increase as the route goes toward Cocoa. That's what I'm confused about. Unless they are assuming tracks to Tampa will be built sometime later. The drawings are in the FEIS.

Edit: drawings not in FEIS, I have them saved somewhere so I will find them. It might have been part of a presentation to the GOAA board.

 

[jis]

According to Wikipedia, St. Augustine to Cocoa is 136 miles by rail. That would put OIA at 98 miles. I believe FEC was once headquartered in St. Augustine so it is possible that St. Augustine could be milepost 0.

Now I am completely confused. If St. Augustine to Cocoa is 136 miles, how would OIA be at 98 miles? Are you sure you have got your geography straight?
Interestingly St. Augustine to Cocoa is 119 miles by I-95. I had no idea that FEC was windy enough between those two points to add 17 additional miles!

On the drawings I'm referring to, the miles increase as the route goes toward Cocoa. That's what I'm confused about. Unless they are assuming tracks to Tampa will be built sometime later. The drawings are in the FEIS.

That is mot definitely a very interesting observation!

 

[brianpmcdonnell17]

According to Wikipedia, St. Augustine to Cocoa is 136 miles by rail. That would put OIA at 98 miles. I believe FEC was once headquartered in St. Augustine so it is possible that St. Augustine could be milepost 0.

Now I am completely confused. If St. Augustine to Cocoa is 136 miles, how would OIA be at 98 miles? Are you sure you have got your geography straight?
Interestingly St. Augustine to Cocoa is 119 miles by I-95. I had no idea that FEC was windy enough between those two points to add 17 additional miles!

On the drawings I'm referring to, the miles increase as the route goes toward Cocoa. That's what I'm confused about. Unless they are assuming tracks to Tampa will be built sometime later. The drawings are in the FEIS.

That is mot definitely a very interesting observation!

I got 98 miles because if Brightline tracks to OIA only connect going south at Cocoa I thought maybe they would count down from Cocoa to Orlando since it is railroad north. That would allow no milepost changes all the way from Orlando to Miami. I realize that Orlando is not 98 miles from St. Augustine. Orlando is 38 miles from milepost 136, making it 98. Basically the mileposts revolve around Cocoa even though it is not Mile 0. I don't know if a railroad has ever designed mileposts in this way or not.

 

[jis]

The miles are marked from 99 (Orlando Airport Intermodal Center) to 138.5 (Cocoa junction with FEC), and The Cocoa Junction is at about mile 170 of FEC, which is clearly miles from JAX.

So where that 99 to 139 comes from for the East - West track still remains a mystery. The closest I can figure is Tampa Airport to Orlando Airport which is about 92 miles by road. It is conceivable that the feasible high speed rail alignment would be 7 miles longer for some reason.

I guess I will have to ask Rusty about it the next time I speak to him.

 

[jis]

The owner of FEC Railroad and AAF/Brightline (via FECI) - Fortress Group, was just purchased by the Japanese SoftBank. Impact of this on things like Brightline can only be positive is the general scuttlebutt, since SoftBank has huge amounts of investment money parked waiting to be deployed. The connection between this and the Abe-Trump meetings is also potentially interesting.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/softbank-buy-fortress-investment-3-000453567.html

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

The owner of FEC Railroad and AAF/Brightline (via FECI) - Fortress Group, was just purchased by the Japanese SoftBank. Impact of this on things like Brightline can only be positive is the general scuttlebutt, since SoftBank has huge amounts of investment money parked waiting to be deployed. The connection between this and the Abe-Trump meetings is also potentially interesting.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/softbank-buy-fortress-investment-3-000453567.html

Were YOU dining at Mar-a-Lago that fateful night, JIS?