Brightline Trains West!

[GDRRiley]

The always exciting EIR is out
Brightline West – Cajon Pass High-Speed Rail Project | FRA

Planned operations: the system would start with 45 minute headways all day. Trainsets would be comprised of 7 cars. After 10 years, the line would be upgraded to support 22.5 minute headways. After 7 years, they would switch to 14 car trains (comprised of 2x7 car trainsets

 

[joelkfla]

The always exciting EIR is out
Brightline West – Cajon Pass High-Speed Rail Project | FRA

Planned operations: the system would start with 45 minute headways all day. Trainsets would be comprised of 7 cars. After 10 years, the line would be upgraded to support 22.5 minute headways. After 7 years, they would switch to 14 car trains (comprised of 2x7 car trainsets
View attachment 30224

Actually, if you read Attachment A – Operating Assumptions Memo | FRA, they plan to start service with 1/3 of the trains coupled (14 cars), increase that to 2/3 in year 4, and all coupled in year 7.

That attachment includes a detailed ridership analysis and a proposed schedule. Travel time is 2:20.

 

[MARC Rider]

The always exciting EIR is out
Brightline West – Cajon Pass High-Speed Rail Project | FRA

Planned operations: the system would start with 45 minute headways all day. Trainsets would be comprised of 7 cars. After 10 years, the line would be upgraded to support 22.5 minute headways. After 7 years, they would switch to 14 car trains (comprised of 2x7 car trainsets
View attachment 30224

OK, I guess they did some sort of ridership analysis, but I can't see having more frequent service than the NEC with longer trains on a route that terminates at the far edge of the LA metro area and doesn't have many people or large towns in between the two terminals. And if they think they can make it go with real estate development along the route, dumping millions of people into a desert, such a project would deserve to be opposed as vigorously as possible.

 

[jis]

OK, I guess they did some sort of ridership analysis, but I can't see having more frequent service than the NEC with longer trains on a route that terminates at the far edge of the LA metro area and doesn't have many people or large towns in between the two terminals. And if they think they can make it go with real estate development along the route, dumping millions of people into a desert, such a project would deserve to be opposed as vigorously as possible.

One base assumption that may be premature and/or incorrect is that Rancho Cucamonga forever will be its terminus in the LA basin. There have been reports about background negotiations with MetroLink to get from the Rancho Cucamonga area to LAUS, nothing concrete enough to make any announcements, specially since it involves electrification and all that.

But meanwhile, for the time being, Ranch Cucamonga is a heck of a lot better than terminating at Victorville.

 

[user 1215]

There is already a Metrolink station at Rancho Cucamonga (same station as proposed terminus?), so perhaps a schedule coordination, especially on weekends. Also of note, though not sure of its relevancy, is that it is about a 15-30 minute bus ride (or a 10 minute Uber) to Ontario airport.

 

[joelkfla]

There is already a Metrolink station at Rancho Cucamonga (same station as proposed terminus?), so perhaps a schedule coordination, especially on weekends. Also of note, though not sure of its relevancy, is that it is about a 15-30 minute bus ride (or a 10 minute Uber) to Ontario airport.

The document states that schedules will be coordinated, but there's not much they can do with Metrolink running on a 30 or 60 minute headway and BW running every 45 minutes. Typical connection appears to range between 15 & 30 minutes.

Here's a snippet:

 

[crescent-zephyr]

Typical connection appears to range between 15 & 30 minutes.

Keystone Corridors have that long of a dwell time in Philadelphia. This would certainly work nicely!

 

[GDRRiley]

Actually, if you read Attachment A – Operating Assumptions Memo | FRA, they plan to start service with 1/3 of the trains coupled (14 cars), increase that to 2/3 in year 4, and all coupled in year 7.

That attachment includes a detailed ridership analysis and a proposed schedule. Travel time is 2:20.

I'm aware I just simplified that because I didn't want to copy the charts

The document states that schedules will be coordinated, but there's not much they can do with Metrolink running on a 30 or 60 minute headway and BW running every 45 minutes. Typical connection appears to range between 15 & 30 minutes.

metrolink plans on increasing that, at some point the goal is to turn their service into regional rail, 15 min transfer time is fine, the brightline train will be there you leave metrolink go through security and board brightline

OK, I guess they did some sort of ridership analysis, but I can't see having more frequent service than the NEC with longer trains on a route that terminates at the far edge of the LA metro area and doesn't have many people or large towns in between the two terminals. And if they think they can make it go with real estate development along the route, dumping millions of people into a desert, such a project would deserve to be opposed as vigorously as possible.

The terminals are the whole reason this train exists, remember LA is not very downtown focused and so serving the inland empire directly is a good thing and will likely stay long term at a train every 20 mins in peak times
I expect the Apple Valley (or where ever the wye is to high desert corridor) to Vegas section to be double tracked given they'll want to run trains to the bay area and into LA union

 

[jis]

Indeed, one thing people seem to overlook is that this Rancho Cucamonga project does not negate the eventual construction of the high desert connection to Palmdale and CAHSR.

 

[GDRRiley]

intresting chart showing just how slow they plan to cross at sections, makes sense as a way to cut costs and with a ~4% grade you aren't going to be doing 180mph

 

[Anderson]

Indeed, one thing people seem to overlook is that this Rancho Cucamonga project does not negate the eventual construction of the high desert connection to Palmdale and CAHSR.

Quite. A situation where they send (at least) one train per hour to Rancho Cucamonga and one train per hour to Palmdale is quite plausible.

One thing that's also interesting to muse over is the intermediate traffic this will likely kick out between Apple Valley and the LA Basin.

Also, as noted, having service to RC and then extending to LAUS (with a possible intermediate stop?) seems quite plausible. That's a 40-ish mile trip, so one intermediate stop would be in line with South Florida (and with the plan to add Hesperia).

 

[Caesar La Rock]

intresting chart showing just how slow they plan to cross at sections, makes sense as a way to cut costs and with a ~4% grade you aren't going to be doing 180mph

The ICE trains in Germany have no problem doing 300kmh/186mph on this 4% grade up and down the Hallerbach Viaduct as shown in this video. This is on the Cologne–Frankfurt high speed rail line, which opened up 20 years ago. The Siemens Velaros will have no problem maintaining track speed up and down the 4% grades on the route Brightline West is using, especially the newer versions of the Velaros. With that said, Brightline West does have those restrictions for a reason.

 

[MARC Rider]

One base assumption that may be premature and/or incorrect is that Rancho Cucamonga forever will be its terminus in the LA basin. There have been reports about background negotiations with MetroLink to get from the Rancho Cucamonga area to LAUS, nothing concrete enough to make any announcements, specially since it involves electrification and all that.

But meanwhile, for the time being, Ranch Cucamonga is a heck of a lot better than terminating at Victorville.

OK, I looked at the EIS a bit. On tables 1 & 2, they're claiming a total Las Vegas - "Southern California" Total travel demand of 49 million riders in 2025, ramping up to 63 million in 2044. Total ridership on the NEC, according to RPA, was about 12 million in 2019, the last year before the pandemic. Yeah, Southern California is heavily populated, and the Las Vegas Metro areas has 2.2 million people (about 600,000 fewer people than the Baltimore metro area). There's not much in between except Victorville, which has a little under 150,000 people., so even if it's a high-growth area and doubles its population, that's still not going to amount for a whole lot. And the high desert is really not the best place to start transplanting people in a region of the country characterized by drought.

Aside from New York, Boston, and Washington, the NEC has at least three other metro areas with populations of greater than 1 million, plus a number of other metro areas and cities with populations of 500,000 to 1 million. Nearly all of the larger cities have an extensive ecosystem of mass transit connections feeding the intercity train route, and a long history of the local population using the train as a viable means of transportation. And yet, the NEC only had 12 million riders a year at its peak! I can't believe Brightline will be getting 49 million passengers a year in the first year of its operation, especially since any connections to LAUS or CAHSR is still speculative at this point. Having a terminus in Rancho Cucamonga is like terminating the NEC at Baltimore and Providence and counting on everybody to ride MARC and MBTA into Washington and Boston.

I really don't think they're going to have the passengers to support running high speed trains on 45-minute headways between Las Vegas and Ranch Cucamonga. The NEC can barely do it (and it's not doing it now), and that's subsidized up the wahoo. I'm not even sure how Brightline is justifying the capital expenditure as a private, for-profit company. I suppose they have plans to develop properties by the stations, but I can't see how they can make money running trains over the long term, at least not the kind of money that would interest typical capitalist investors.

 

[GDRRiley]

OK, I looked at the EIS a bit. On tables 1 & 2, they're claiming a total Las Vegas - "Southern California" Total travel demand of 49 million riders in 2025, ramping up to 63 million in 2044. Total ridership on the NEC, according to RPA, was about 12 million in 2019, the last year before the pandemic. Yeah, Southern California is heavily populated, and the Las Vegas Metro areas has 2.2 million people (about 600,000 fewer people than the Baltimore metro area). There's not much in between except Victorville, which has a little under 150,000 people., so even if it's a high-growth area and doubles its population, that's still not going to amount for a whole lot. And the high desert is really not the best place to start transplanting people in a region of the country characterized by drought.

The main ridership is not LA or Vegas to Victorville its LA to Vegas. Cities take very little water and you can make that nearly 0 if you ban things like lawns and other outdoor water uses

Aside from New York, Boston, and Washington, the NEC has at least three other metro areas with populations of greater than 1 million, plus a number of other metro areas and cities with populations of 500,000 to 1 million. Nearly all of the larger cities have an extensive ecosystem of mass transit connections feeding the intercity train route, and a long history of the local population using the train as a viable means of transportation. And yet, the NEC only had 12 million riders a year at its peak! I can't believe Brightline will be getting 49 million passengers a year in the first year of its operation, especially since any connections to LAUS or CAHSR is still speculative at this point. Having a terminus in Rancho Cucamonga is like terminating the NEC at Baltimore and Providence and counting on everybody to ride MARC and MBTA into Washington and Boston.

The connection to CASHR between Palmdale and Victorville is not specualtive, its a plan with upto 2B in LA county money behind it. Its still years away but its most likely going to happen

I really don't think they're going to have the passengers to support running high speed trains on 45-minute headways between Las Vegas and Ranch Cucamonga. The NEC can barely do it (and it's not doing it now), and that's subsidized up the wahoo. I'm not even sure how Brightline is justifying the capital expenditure as a private, for-profit company. I suppose they have plans to develop properties by the stations, but I can't see how they can make money running trains over the long term, at least not the kind of money that would interest typical capitalist investors.

Brightline isn't doing this because they think they'll make money they are certain they can get ridership, if they weren't over the pass it would be a lot harder. Now that they are into the inland empire they've got plenty of riders
they thankfully aren't clueless investors only interested in the short term and nearly all HSR lines make money

 

[Touchdowntom9]

The ICE trains in Germany have no problem doing 300kmh/186mph on this 4% grade up and down the Hallerbach Viaduct as shown in this video. This is on the Cologne–Frankfurt high speed rail line, which opened up 20 years ago. The Siemens Velaros will have no problem maintaining track speed up and down the 4% grades on the route Brightline West is using, especially the newer versions of the Velaros. With that said, Brightline West does have those restrictions for a reason.

Cool video. Regarding your last comment, what are the primary reasons they would have those speed restrictions?

 

[Touchdowntom9]

OK, I looked at the EIS a bit. On tables 1 & 2, they're claiming a total Las Vegas - "Southern California" Total travel demand of 49 million riders in 2025, ramping up to 63 million in 2044. Total ridership on the NEC, according to RPA, was about 12 million in 2019, the last year before the pandemic. Yeah, Southern California is heavily populated, and the Las Vegas Metro areas has 2.2 million people (about 600,000 fewer people than the Baltimore metro area). There's not much in between except Victorville, which has a little under 150,000 people., so even if it's a high-growth area and doubles its population, that's still not going to amount for a whole lot. And the high desert is really not the best place to start transplanting people in a region of the country characterized by drought.

I think you might be swapping some numbers around. They arent projecting 50mm in ridership--thats total ridership between the two areas (includes car/air travel as well I believe, and infers 25mm in round trips). At the bottom of the chart they project ridership in the single digit (6-8) millions for the first few years. See the snip below.

 

[MARC Rider]

I think you might be swapping some numbers around. They arent projecting 50mm in ridership--thats total ridership between the two areas (includes car/air travel as well I believe, and infers 25mm in round trips). At the bottom of the chart they project ridership in the single digit (6-8) millions for the first few years. See the snip below.
View attachment 30370

Whoops. OK, so they think they're going to get half the ridership that the NEC gets. That suggests that they can support running half the trains the NEC runs, or one every 120 minutes, not one every 45 minutes.

 

[jis]

Whoops. OK, so they think they're going to get half the ridership that the NEC gets. That suggests that they can support running half the trains the NEC runs, or one every 120 minutes, not one every 45 minutes.

That is freight railroad thinking You schedule passenger trains at a frequency that makes the service conveient, and not just to minimize the number of runs that you need to carry the total expected ridership.

 

[MARC Rider]

That is freight railroad thinking You schedule passenger trains at a frequency that makes the service conveient, and not just to minimize the number of runs that you need to carry the total expected ridership.

That might be true, but Brightline isn't supposed to be getting any subsidies from anybody. Maybe, by the magic of having more convenient service, they can attract enough riders to pay for the every 45-minute service, but will the revenue from the extra riders cover the increased costs of running the more frequent trains?

 

[jis]

That might be true, but Brightline isn't supposed to be getting any subsidies from anybody. Maybe, by the magic of having more convenient service, they can attract enough riders to pay for the every 45-minute service, but will the revenue from the extra riders cover the increased costs of running the more frequent trains?

Where did you get that idea specifically as it applies to Brightline West?

As a matter of fact it will get subsidies in various ways even in Florida. One could facetiously ask what do riders have to do with selling real estate using the service as a carrot? It is more complicated than just filling seats most efficiently.

 

[cirdan]

they thankfully aren't clueless investors only interested in the short term and nearly all HSR lines make money

sadly I believe this is not the case. Very many high speed lines lose money hand over fist (especially when you take into account recovery of construction costs, which in many cases are magically swept under the rug). Such lines are built by governments who believe the broader societal benefits offset the expense. Whether or not this is true depends on the assumptions you are prepared to accept.

 

[jis]

sadly I believe this is not the case. Very many high speed lines lose money hand over fist (especially when you take into account recovery of construction costs, which in many cases are magically swept under the rug). Such lines are built by governments who believe the broader societal benefits offset the expense. Whether or not this is true depends on the assumptions you are prepared to accept.

Actually I think among HSR projects there is quite a mix covering the entire gamut from those that manage to even recover their construction costs through those that are profitable operationally to the other extreme where it was always known to be a vanity project and continues as such. In this respect HSR is no different from any other transportation project.

 

[Touchdowntom9]

When are they supposed to break ground on construction for the project? Or do they still need to raise money from that bond offering before that happens?

 

[GDRRiley]

When are they supposed to break ground on construction for the project? Or do they still need to raise money from that bond offering before that happens?

they need money from bonds which would require the states to reauthorize them

 

[NES28]

The environmental document for the added portion over Cajon Pass (next to I-15) providing a connection to Metrolink was just published and is out for public comment.