Capitol Limited & Lake Shore Limited Delays Summer/Fall 2014

[neroden]

OK, so it's a little hard to explain if you don't understand how software works.

When you say "automated" dispatching, do you mean the computer sets the lights and switches (e.g., for a siding), or it tells the human dispatcher what to do, or it shows the effects of what a dispatcher wants to do?

Could be any of these, really. The point is that the dispatching system is trying to replace the *decision-making knowhow* of the human dispatcher, but it's doing so with *less information*, and specifically with less information which causes it to *bias optimistically*.

So, when it shows the effects of a proposed dispatching plan, it shows *overly optimistic effects*. If it tells the human dispatcher to follow said plan, it is an *overly optimistic plan* with *overly optimistic effects*. If it sets the switches itself automatically, it is *still* an overly optimistic plan with overly optimistic effects...

So the automated dispatching system claims that a given plan will successfully move various trains to various locations by various times; and it won't. Something will happen, a grade crossing will malfunction or something, and then the entire thing will snarl up and everything will be late.

A human dispatcher could have deliberately left extra empty sidings, held the main emptier than it needed to be, etc., and then there would be some slack which could be used in case of accidents.

An automated dispatching program *could* theoretically do this too, but *that's not what the programmers were instructed to do*. They were almost certainly instructed to write an "efficient" dispatching program which maximized the use of the capacity. This, as I said earlier, is the error.

The human dispatchers have in the back of their heads "I need to leave some slack in case something goes wrong". They'll start steering trains away from a yard when it's only 85% full, not 100% full. The automated dispatching system might hold trains off the main just-in-time to let Amtrak by; the human dispatcher would clear the way earlier, just in case something went wrong.

You CAN write programs which can incorporate this know-how, but I am dead certain that when the program was commissioned, that's not what the programmers were told to do, and so they made a fragile system.

I'm certain of this because

(a) it is a really, really common error to make when commissioning computer programs for controlling things;

(b) the execs of the railroads have been obsessed with efficient use of capacity rather than with having redundancy for trouble, which makes them more likely to make this error.

Computers are very good at doing things very fast. So, if the execs ordered the human dispatchers to leave no slack, it might take months for them to adjust their behavior and clog up the railroad completely. The computer, instructed to do the same thing, will clog up the railroad within days!

 

[neroden]

Discussion on another board of the complete and utter disaster which NS's "AutoRouter" from GE is:

http://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?2,3546621

Added point: AutoRouter appears to have actually broken the law by running freights ahead of Amtrak.

Maybe we can get something organized through one of the lobbying groups, because this is something it would be fun to take on.

The code for AutoRouter can be subpoenaed by Amtrak in a hearing to determine whether NS is violating the priority dispatching law. If

(a) AutoRouter doesn't have Amtrak priority coded into its software

and (b) as reported, dispatchers are being penalized for overriding AutoRouter,

then Amtrak has a slam-dunk case and will win money damages and an injunction! Faced with this information, NS will either

(a) order that dispatchers override AutoRouter,

or (b) demand that GE supply a revised version of AutoRouter which prioritizes Amtrak.

Apparently the AutoRouter is designed to make the most "cost-effective" dispatching choices. But its model of "cost-effective" is wrong, because it doesn't account for angry customers (like UPS) revoking their business due to delays! Classic.

 

[Trollopian]

I frequently commute between Pittsburgh and Washington on the Capitol Limited, so imagine my wistfulness when I read this in the October 4 print edition of The Economist:

"Fifty years ago this week the first Shinkansen bullet train pulled out of Tokyo station bound for Osaka, a flash of blue and white through what was still a grimy, beat-up megalopolis. At once it became emblematic of Japan’s regeneration and a glimpse of the future...It has since whisked 5.6 billion passengers across the country without a single serious accident. Punctuality? The average delay is less than a minute."

(Full article at http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21621880-they-have-been-rolling-50-yearsand-without-fatal-accident-what-ride.)

Not surprisingly, given the recent meltdowns on the CL route west of Pittsburgh, I've switched to other modes for getting to DC (though the trip from DC to Pittsburgh is reasonably reliable).

 

[afigg]

So with the benefit of a extra assembled consist, on Saturday night CL #30(10/11) departed CHI only 9 minutes late at 6:49 PM CT. After a run through the NS gauntlet, it departed PGH 5 hours and 41 minutes late, got a little later, and then thanks to some serious padding for the last segment, arrived at WAS 5 hours and 44 minutes late.

LSL #48(10/11) departed CHI 3 hours and 6 minutes late, had a better run losing about 2 additional hours, arrived at NYP 5 hours and 22 minutes late.

With a late arrival of #29, CL #30(10/12) departed CHI Sunday night 1 hour and 22 minutes late. Getting off to a better start, LSL #48(10/12) departed CHI 12 minutes late. Anyone want to guess how late they will be getting to CLE or for the CL, PGH, and then their final destination NYP and WAS?

 

[neroden]

My wild guess: I think the LSL will lose about 2 hours from Chicago to Cleveland consistently, but that this might slowly get smaller as track work continues and crews are relocated. However, I think for some time to come the CL will lose far more from Cleveland to Alliance, which seems to be the new chokepoint. And I don't know of any plans which would alleviate it.

 

[montana mike]

Looking at the numbers this morning things don't appear to be getting ANY better. Both the LSL and CL are 4-5 hours behind in OH. What a mess.

:-(

 

[Barciur]

LSL hit a vehicle somewhere around Erie on a grade crossing, that's what caused it to be late.

 

[Slasharoo]

On 48 now. No car-train incident to my knowledge. Moving towards Erie, 3+ hours behind. Three hours at CLE and a little added since.

 

[afigg]

On 48 now. No car-train incident to my knowledge. Moving towards Erie, 3+ hours behind. Three hours at CLE and a little added since.

It was the westbound #49 (10/12) that must have hit the car. Departed Erie 43 minutes late, then arrived at CLE almost 4 hours late, Now 5 hours late at Sandusky with delays ahead of it. Which means that unless Amtrak has a spare LSL consist at CHI, that #48 will almost certainly be late departing CHI tonight.

 

[Barciur]

Yes sorry, I meant the 49, didn't specify.

 

[montana mike]

No end to the misery for this route! Should be an exciting adventure for me in a couple of weeks......

:-(

 

[Slasharoo]

We appear to be holding steady at 4:20 behind schedule on today's 48. They did serve Amstew after Utica around 5:00.

 

[Henry Kisor]

It's a little late to say so (I was away from a computer) but 29 (10) finally arrived in Chicago about 11 hours late. No bustitution, though.

 

[afigg]

It was the westbound #49 (10/12) that must have hit the car. Departed Erie 43 minutes late, then arrived at CLE almost 4 hours late, Now 5 hours late at Sandusky with delays ahead of it. Which means that unless Amtrak has a spare LSL consist at CHI, that #48 will almost certainly be late departing CHI tonight.

News report on the grade crossing collision in Erie: Man hurt when truck struck by train in Erie. It was a pickup truck that was hit just after #49 departed the Erie station.

 

[Chey]

No end to the misery for this route! Should be an exciting adventure for me in a couple of weeks......

:-(

Yeah, I get to ride the 30 in about 6 weeks. I've been wondering if weather can make it even worse, guess I'm going to find out.

 

[keelhauled]

And 49 (10/12) is sitting in Indiana. Estimated arrival in Chicago of almost nine hours late. Brutal. If these delays continue into November I'm going to abandon my plans to take Amtrak to Colorado and just fly.

 

[gunn13]

Hi there,

I was hoping somebody with a little more insight might be able to help me with some information about these delays.

My wife and I are booked on travel on the Lake Shore Limited from NYP-CHI on Monday 3 Nov. we are connecting with the Southwest Chief later in the afternoon.

When we planned it out I anticipated that a 5/6 hour connection time would be ample but after seeing the notice about expected delays until January I am starting to worry that we will likely miss our connection.

If this happens, how would Amtrak help us out?

I'm a train conductor here in Scotland and I understand the nature of delays and how it can be difficult to predict anything - looking at the recent delay times for the LSL, it varies wildly - but does anybody have an eduated guess as to how bad the delay is likely to be?

Any help is much appreciated. Thank you.

 

[jebr]

Sometimes they've been bussing people from Toledo to Chicago in order to make connections. This is sporadic, though, and may or may not be done on your trip. They may also hold your connecting train if the train is about to arrive when the connecting train is about to leave.

If the connection is missed, however, Amtrak will provide a hotel (paid for by Amtrak) and will also provide cash for food and taxi (if needed.) They will then accommodate you on the next day's train if possible. This may mean being downgraded to coach if you have a sleeper, though. If they downgrade you, call into Customer Relations after the trip and ask for a refund of the cost between coach and sleeper (unless Amtrak offers this immediately when they rebook you.)

If you want to have a very good chance of having a sleeper, lay over for a night in Chicago (this would be at your expense) and take the next day's train. Chicago is a nice place to spend a day, anyways, and if you're a railfan there's a lot of rail you can ride as well.

 

[afigg]

Yikes, #49(10/12) had a bad trip. Got to CLE 4 hours late thanks to the grade crossing collision in Erie, and then got stuck in delay hell after that. Departed TOL 5 hours and 18 minutes late, SOB 6 hours and 55 minutes late, and then lost another 3.5 hours, arrived at CHI 10 hours and 25 minutes late at 8:10 PM CT. Just how late will #48 be departing CHI tonight?

The only good news is that #30(10/13) left on-time.

 

[richm49]

And 49 (10/12) is sitting in Indiana. Estimated arrival in Chicago of almost nine hours late. Brutal. If these delays continue into November I'm going to abandon my plans to take Amtrak to Colorado and just fly.

49/LSL(10/12) arrived in CHI at 8:10 P.M. 10 hours,25 minutes late!!!!!! Not only did it miss EVERY LD West Coast train but it even missed connection to City of New Orleans that departs at 8:00 P.M.!!! I will be staying as far away as possible from this mess of delays in the IN-OH freight sinkhole where Amtrak trains and their pax are forced to wait through horrendous delays. 49/LSL was already nearly 7 hours late departing SOB and it then lost another 3.5 hours getting into CHI!!!!! I am so glad that I altered my travel plans away from 49/LSL and changed my departure date by one day so I could take 51/Cardinal which has been early or on time 15 of it's last 21 trips.

 

[montana mike]

Based on what Amtrak is advertising as an arrival time at SOB likely 3+ hours delay in departing. The death spiral starts all over again this week. There is no way they can keep this up. The delays will keep compounding until Amtrak will be required to annul an entire train to try to catch up-which, given the track record will happen soon.

:-(

 

[montana mike]

And 49 (10/12) is sitting in Indiana. Estimated arrival in Chicago of almost nine hours late. Brutal. If these delays continue into November I'm going to abandon my plans to take Amtrak to Colorado and just fly.

49/LSL(10/12) arrived in CHI at 8:10 P.M. 10 hours,25 minutes late!!!!!! Not only did it miss EVERY LD West Coast train but it even missed connection to City of New Orleans that departs at 8:00 P.M.!!! I will be staying as far away as possible from this mess of delays in the IN-OH freight sinkhole where Amtrak trains and their pax are forced to wait through horrendous delays. 49/LSL was already nearly 7 hours late departing SOB and it then lost another 3.5 hours getting into CHI!!!!! I am so glad that I altered my travel plans away from 49/LSL and changed my departure date by one day so I could take 51/Cardinal which has been early or on time 15 of it's last 21 trips.

Glad you found a viable alternative. Sadly I have none, since I will be leaving from Rochester, NY. I can't afford to stay another day in CHI waiting for a later Empire Builder, so it looks like just scrapping the ROC to CHI leg of the trip and flying or driving from ROC to make it to CHI in time to catch #7. Arrrgh. One would think an almost 5 hour connection time would be "viable", but not in this environment-maddening.

 

[richm49]

Well so much for the reports from train orders.com last week that things may be getting better in this mess anytime soon. It was reported that there were 16 hours of meetings amongst major users of Chicago Terminal railroads. In that meeting, NS was singled out for having adverse effects on all traffic in that area.NS stated that they had made "significant progress" in decreasing train delays in the area and they they were committed to the operation of Amtrak trains along their entire Cleveland-Chicago route. That was reported on 10/8 last week. Despite those reports, it is just more of the same on this beleaguered route. Obviously there has not been any progress in improving operations as evidenced by 49/LSL(10/12) ridiculously late arrival in CHI.Maybe the case being heard by the U.S. Supreme Court will provide some relief.

 

[Anderson]

*sighs*
As noted elsewhere, I am flying most of the way to the NARP conference due to this *ahem* train wreck. I am not happy about it, either. You can bet that I'll be dragging my rear end to somebody's annual meeting next spring and making some terse remarks about how management let this disruption go on for as long as it did, fouling ops for all customers...*grumble*

 

[Anderson]

And 49 (10/12) is sitting in Indiana. Estimated arrival in Chicago of almost nine hours late. Brutal. If these delays continue into November I'm going to abandon my plans to take Amtrak to Colorado and just fly.

49/LSL(10/12) arrived in CHI at 8:10 P.M. 10 hours,25 minutes late!!!!!! Not only did it miss EVERY LD West Coast train but it even missed connection to City of New Orleans that departs at 8:00 P.M.!!! I will be staying as far away as possible from this mess of delays in the IN-OH freight sinkhole where Amtrak trains and their pax are forced to wait through horrendous delays. 49/LSL was already nearly 7 hours late departing SOB and it then lost another 3.5 hours getting into CHI!!!!! I am so glad that I altered my travel plans away from 49/LSL and changed my departure date by one day so I could take 51/Cardinal which has been early or on time 15 of it's last 21 trips.

49/12 was late due to a collision. Not NS's fault. I just got in a jam that on the necessary travel day, the Cardinal wasn't running.