Empire Builder Summer Blues Started Early this year

[tonys96]

We are traveling eastbound on the EB this August. Fortunately, we are disembarking @ MSP, so as long as we are less than 4/5 hours late, we will still be OK !

 

[crescent2]

Ryan's graph is mislabeled.

The red line is crescent2's EKG when looking at EB's on-time performance.

The blue line is RailFreak's EKG

The green line is laxter's EKG.

Montana Mike's is not shown.

 

[Rail Freak]

Ryan's graph is mislabeled.The red line is crescent2's EKG when looking at EB's on-time performance.

The blue line is RailFreak's EKG

The green line is laxter's EKG.

Montana Mike's is not shown.

:giggle: :blink: :lol:

 

[PaulM]

How will these delays affect connections to the Wolverine?
...

I'm not opposed to spending an extra night in Chicago.

Being bussed or vanned is more likely.

 

[montana mike]

Ryan's graph is mislabeled.The red line is crescent2's EKG when looking at EB's on-time performance.

The blue line is RailFreak's EKG

The green line is laxter's EKG.

Montana Mike's is not shown.

Always good to have a great sense of humor in such a situation!!! Bravo!

 

[anir dendroica]

I don't think freight volumes increase much if at all during the summer months. The only real factors are track construction and increased passenger loading, the latter having a somewhat smaller effect, though more passengers means more frequent medical emergencies, police interventions, etc. and longer station dwell times.

Track construction has some knock-on effects though:

1. Freights are also subject to construction slow orders, effectively decreasing line capacity and increasing time spent in sidings or following freights.

2. Slow orders eat up the schedule padding, so that delays due to other reasons (e.g. bad-ordered cars) cannot be made up en route.

3. Amtrak runs ~9-10 hour crew districts, meaning that if a train is delayed more than 2-3 hours in one district a new crew must be supplied as crews cannot legally work more than 12 hours per shift. Furthermore crews must be given 8 hours rest before the next shift, so occasionally when #8 is delayed multiple hours the next day's #7 must wait at a crew change point until the crew has had their 8 hours of legal rest.

 

[anir dendroica]

I don't know who gave you that info. A very close friend of ours is a principle in one of the firms in the Bakken play and their estimates are for increasing production in ND and MT for at least 20-30 years, with full production lasting two to three times that long. This is the largest energy field outside of TX in US history. It will be around for generations. This guy has been in the business his entire life and I believe his estimates to be quite accurate. He is not one to speak in hyperboles.

I've seen it said many places. Here is one report that I trust, giving several scenarios all of which involve peak production in the next few years:

http://oilandgas-investments.com/2012/oil-and-gas-financial/bakken-oil-production/

 

[montana mike]

I don't know who gave you that info. A very close friend of ours is a principle in one of the firms in the Bakken play and their estimates are for increasing production in ND and MT for at least 20-30 years, with full production lasting two to three times that long. This is the largest energy field outside of TX in US history. It will be around for generations. This guy has been in the business his entire life and I believe his estimates to be quite accurate. He is not one to speak in hyperboles.

I've seen it said many places. Here is one report that I trust, giving several scenarios all of which involve peak production in the next few years:

http://oilandgas-investments.com/2012/oil-and-gas-financial/bakken-oil-production/

Not sure how they come up with the info at all. The US Geological Survey's latest data (May 2013) doesn't even agree with that info. Production won't peak for at least another 20 years. The number of wells to be drilled in BOTH ND and MT will increase by at least a factor of ten over the next 5-7 years, which means the earliest you could have "peak" production would be 10 years, but then that doesn't take into account additional wells after that time frame at all. This field will be producing enormous amounts (the USGS says that by 2020 this field will supply 10% of ALL domestic production) of energy products for at least the next three generations. Even the USGS now admits there could be close to 1 TRILLION barrels of oil/NG equivalent that is recoverable in today's technology between the Canadian side and ND and MT. That will take many, many decades to remove.

 

[Guest]

August looks pretty rough. If you're OK with it, you may be spending the night in CHI on Amtrak's dime.

Wow - those on-time rates look absolutely pathetic in the summer. I've encountered several sold-out trains to CHI from MSP. Not enough track capacity plus passenger demand... hopefully someone will do something to upgrade this rail line! Thankfully, I'm not pressed for time on this trip and would welcome extra time to explore some Chicago sights.

Where does Amtrak put people up at? Somewhere downtown, I hope?

 

[montana mike]

Todays arrival will likely be over 3 hours late and tomorrow's is already approaching the 3 hour mark and this train hasn't run the "gauntlet" yet in ND. Bummer.

The one time they put me up in CHI it was a decent property downtown, although it is a function of what is available. If a major convention is in town you could end up in the "burbs".

Update: 7(19) lost 2 hours around MKE today as well. :-(

 

[Big Green Chauvanist]

I happened to be part of the 4hr delay, Monday, on #7 out of CHI. It was extremely frustrating to say the least. My biggest issue was the lack of Amtrak organization during the wait in the coach lounge at the station. The initial PA announcement relayed a "30 minute" delay... followed 35 minutes later with a "60 minute" delay. When we reached an hour the word was "we don't have a time for your departure".
Needless to say, many were frazzled.

I travel cross-country each summer on Amtrak, and honestly understand these issues occur. As I stated before my issue was that no Amtrak 'official' came out to address the mob scene with updates/instructions. While we waited multiple Hiawatha and Milwaukee trains boarded at our gate; as you can imagine it was pretty crowded.

Fortunately my trip on the EB was a 'short' one, traveling only to Wis. Dells.

We are returning on tomorrow's (6/18 origin) EB to Chicago. The train is already over 2.5 hours late.

As a train lover I am keeping my chin up and smiling, as for the wife..........

Thanks for reading!

I was also on #7 Monday. Lucky you--you got off at Wisconsin Dells. Oddly, there seemed to be little freight interference. Much track work, though, which extended the four hour delay upon departure (three in the station, one on the train) to the point where we had to be bused from Spokane onward this morning. And how I wish they would make a Metra commuter train wait for five frickin' minutes to allow a four-hour late trans-continental train priority. That delay cost us another 10 or so minutes--it all adds up. I was SO looking forward to traveling through Eastern Washington by train in the daylight. Not to be. I have to give a shout out to SRA King Louie. I hope I won't get him in any trouble, but I think management knows him well enough to keep him on a "loose leash" and lets him do his thing. You are right in that no one "official" from Amtrak let us know during those long three hours' wait. But for first class pax in the Metropolitan Lounge, at least King Louie came by himself to let us know that not only the original diner went bad, but the replacement also was no good. Third time the charm, but by then the run was doomed. I didn't get breakfast this morning in the diner either--they did gave me a to-go meal, which I appreciated, as the buses were already boarding. Of course, we then waited on the buses for over a half hour for the checked luggage to arrive. Total disaster.

 

[crescent2]

"Don't worry." ???? :huh: :giggle:

 

[montana mike]

Both 7 in ND and 8 in MN are now both over 5 hours behind schedule--after a brutally slow run thru ND!!!

:-(

I believe Amtrak is losing control of the schedule for this train--the big delays into CHI (3-6 hour delays now common) and it looks like another possible turn at SPK again for the west bound EB tonight, will just make matters worse for BOTH passengers and crew.

 

[yarrow]

now, 6.5 hours late out of malta in eastern, mt. they would have to turn the eb in spk or have a late departure from sea/pdx tomorrow

 

[montana mike]

Yup--looks like they pulled the plug on #7 this evening and now have posted the infamous service disruption and will turn the sucker around in SPK AGAIN--second time this week. If AMTRAK is going to have any chance of originating trains on a regular basis in SEA this summer they may very well have to station that second set in SEA AGAIN. Bummer for all of those thousands of passengers who get those 7 hour bus trips between SEA, PDX and SPK.

:-((

 

[Texan Eagle]

Yup--looks like they pulled the plug on #7 this evening and now have posted the infamous service disruption and will turn the sucker around in SPK AGAIN--second time this week. If AMTRAK is going to have any chance of originating trains on a regular basis in SEA this summer they may very well have to station that second set in SEA AGAIN. Bummer for all of those thousands of passengers who get those 7 hour bus trips between SEA, PDX and SPK.:-((

I am going with friends on this trip in two weeks. For all of us desk-job people, getting time off to make this trip has been "on bucket list since several years" thing, and this situation does not look very optimistic. I have to connect to Starlight from PDX, no idea what will happen to that if delays continue like this. What do they do if the bustitution is not going to make it in time to PDX for southbound Starlight's departure? Do they divert the bus to meet the train somewhere further down the line?

Also, I am funding this trip from carefully collected AGR points. In case we hit a bustitution/missed connection, what kind of compensation can I expect? Will it be in terms of miles or travel voucher worth X dollars?

 

[AlanB]

Yup--looks like they pulled the plug on #7 this evening and now have posted the infamous service disruption and will turn the sucker around in SPK AGAIN--second time this week. If AMTRAK is going to have any chance of originating trains on a regular basis in SEA this summer they may very well have to station that second set in SEA AGAIN.

I'm not sure that Amtrak has enough equipment to do that. When they did it last year it was very late in the summer when they were coming down off the peak.

Also, I am funding this trip from carefully collected AGR points. In case we hit a bustitution/missed connection, what kind of compensation can I expect? Will it be in terms of miles or travel voucher worth X dollars?

You'll get a voucher good towards travel in the coming year. No idea just how much, especially since any amount would be affected by making/not making the CS connection properly.

 

[montana mike]

According to my BNSF friend here in MT, there will be issues in at least two places much of the summer--arrgh. The Devil's lake thru Fargo area and then in part of Eastern MT. He said BNSF has let AMTRAK now they can expect daily delays thru these areas up to 2-3 hours depending on the work schedules, with attendant slow orders to continue into early fall, PLUS he fully expects the usual heat related slow orders to tack on another 1-2 hours of delays in the July-August timeframe thru MT and ND (remember BNSF has lowered the threshold for heat related slow orders to 85 degrees now). If his estimates are reasonably accurate, and I would have no reason to believe they would not be, this means routine delays on at least some EBs of 3-5 hours or more--rats. This past week's performance would appear to bear out his estimates, with two west bound EBs turned in SPK because they were already over 6 hours late and arrival times in CHI on most east bound EBs of 3-5 hours behind schedule.

I guess there is nothing that AMTRAK can do about this, but it would appear the EBs are going to be waaaay off the mark as far as schedule a good part of the time until this activity is complete, with lots and lots of people getting extra bus rides and missing their connections, etc.....

Bummer.

 

[yarrow]

According to my BNSF friend here in MT, there will be issues in at least two places much of the summer--arrgh. The Devil's lake thru Fargo area and then in part of Eastern MT. He said BNSF has let AMTRAK now they can expect daily delays thru these areas up to 2-3 hours depending on the work schedules, with attendant slow orders to continue into early fall, PLUS he fully expects the usual heat related slow orders to tack on another 1-2 hours of delays in the July-August timeframe thru MT and ND (remember BNSF has lowered the threshold for heat related slow orders to 85 degrees now). If his estimates are reasonably accurate, and I would have no reason to believe they would not be, this means routine delays on at least some EBs of 3-5 hours or more--rats. This past week's performance would appear to bear out his estimates, with two west bound EBs turned in SPK because they were already over 6 hours late and arrival times in CHI on most east bound EBs of 3-5 hours behind schedule.I guess there is nothing that AMTRAK can do about this, but it would appear the EBs are going to be waaaay off the mark as far as schedule a good part of the time until this activity is complete, with lots and lots of people getting extra bus rides and missing their connections, etc.....

Bummer.

are the track work delays and slow orders mon-fri or 7 days a week? are bnsf freights also delayed several hours? will amtrak issue a service alert, as i believe they did at some point last summer, that the eb will be routinely delayed? will they again, as i believe they did last year, no longer guarantee the eb-cl connection?

 

[CHamilton]

I'm on 8 today. We're at WFH now, less than an hour late. But we met 7 just west of Libby at 6 am, so it's several hours behind schedule.

 

[montana mike]

According to my BNSF friend here in MT, there will be issues in at least two places much of the summer--arrgh. The Devil's lake thru Fargo area and then in part of Eastern MT. He said BNSF has let AMTRAK now they can expect daily delays thru these areas up to 2-3 hours depending on the work schedules, with attendant slow orders to continue into early fall, PLUS he fully expects the usual heat related slow orders to tack on another 1-2 hours of delays in the July-August timeframe thru MT and ND (remember BNSF has lowered the threshold for heat related slow orders to 85 degrees now). If his estimates are reasonably accurate, and I would have no reason to believe they would not be, this means routine delays on at least some EBs of 3-5 hours or more--rats. This past week's performance would appear to bear out his estimates, with two west bound EBs turned in SPK because they were already over 6 hours late and arrival times in CHI on most east bound EBs of 3-5 hours behind schedule.I guess there is nothing that AMTRAK can do about this, but it would appear the EBs are going to be waaaay off the mark as far as schedule a good part of the time until this activity is complete, with lots and lots of people getting extra bus rides and missing their connections, etc.....

Bummer.

are the track work delays and slow orders mon-fri or 7 days a week? are bnsf freights also delayed several hours? will amtrak issue a service alert, as i believe they did at some point last summer, that the eb will be routinely delayed? will they again, as i believe they did last year, no longer guarantee the eb-cl connection?

My contact at BNSF says the track work has different schedules, with some work seven days a week, others just 5 (although he did say that not much was scheduled for the 4th and 5th of July). Yes, he said this is slowing some of the BNSF freight traffic as well. He did say that there is a "modest" increase in the traffic moving to and from ND to the east right now as more and more tanker cars are being delivered to ND. I note that #8 in MN this AM looks to arrive almost 4 hours behind schedule into MSP and #7 in ND did indeed lose the amount of time he said they would lose as they went thru MN and ND last night (about 2 1/2 hours). It will be interesting to see if 7 loses the additional time in MT as well, since the last two did.

The last time I was on the AMTRAK web site not a peep out of them with regard to possible EB delays this summer. My BNSF guy reminded me again that BNSF plans on being "conservative" when it comes to declaring heat slow orders this summer--translated--they will pull the trigger when the temps go above 85 degrees, slowing things down from 79 mph to around 60 mph as long as the temps remain high (doing the math-that means if the EB has to slow down for three hours of travel this would cost them about an additional hour in delay). :-( How do the trains in the South and Southwest deal with the heat--they have temps above that threshold a good part of the year?

 

[montana mike]

I'm on 8 today. We're at WFH now, less than an hour late. But we met 7 just west of Libby at 6 am, so it's several hours behind schedule.

That means the EB was 7 hours behind--since the "normal" time for Libby is 10:59 PM the night before.

:-(

 

[Big Green Chauvanist]

Also, I am funding this trip from carefully collected AGR points. In case we hit a bustitution/missed connection, what kind of compensation can I expect? Will it be in terms of miles or travel voucher worth X dollars?

You'll get a voucher good towards travel in the coming year. No idea just how much, especially since any amount would be affected by making/not making the CS connection properly.

I was traveling on points. I called customer relations and was given a voucher--good for one year--in the hundreds of dollars. Normally I feel for AMTRAK, being squeezed almost to the bone by Congress and at the mercy of the freight roads, but this was AMTRAK's fault, with two bad dining cars which caused us to leave CHI four hours late. So I don't feel bad about collecting the voucher--this time.

 

[CHamilton]

EB 8 just left East Glacier only half an hour late.

 

[montana mike]

EB 8 just left East Glacier only half an hour late.

Yea. Now the fun begins--keep us posted! I guess the Saturday AM #8 will be on time as it comes into MT, since it will get a head start in SPK as well. Looks like the EB that is in MSP will chug into CHI about 4 hours behind schedule if things go reasonably well thru WI (AMTRAK shows they will lose another 30 minutes or so in MSP for some reason).

Update: #8 stayed in MSP a loooooong time, so long they lost almost another hour, now around 4 1/2 hours behind schedule. Bummer.