Hurricane Sandy and Amtrak.

[BOS-T-Time]

Hello,

Along with being an aficionado of railroads, I am a bit of a weather nut and have been following the different models and forums in regard to Sandy in the Carribean and its possible impacts to the Mid-Atlantic and New England. I have my first long distant trip from BOS-NYP-ATL-NYP-BOS (NE Regional and Crescent) beginning on Tuesday. I was wondering how Amtrak handles major storms in this instance, do they cancel service or try to run it with possible trains being truncated along the route at stations to wait out the storm. I ask this because this storm can be predicted about 24-48 hours unlike a thunderstorm or the like that can not. Does Amtrak take precautions and cancel train service on the North East Corridor or other routes when there is a major storm imminent?

Thanks,

BOS-T-Time

PS. I used my points for this trip so I can cancel it without penalty although I was looking forward to it.

PPS. This storm, if the conditions come together, will be a major event from the Mid-Atlantic through Nova Scotia. Please take heed to your local weather Mets.

 

[AlanB]

Amtrak usually will try to keep running if they can. But the decision is usually not up to Amtrak, it's up to the host RR, in this case CSX. If reports have the storm getting too close to the coast, and especially if they're expecting winds of 60 MPH or more, CSX will close their tracks to remove the gates which can fly off with high winds.

And that would of course force Amtrak to cancel.

 

[Ryan]

I think that you meant Norfolk Southern there. The only CSX that the Crescent sees is between WAS and ALX, right?

The biggest concern I would have is actually wires coming down on the NEC portion of the trip, which could delay you (but you'd likely get through at some point).

 

[AlanB]

I think that you meant Norfolk Southern there. The only CSX that the Crescent sees is between WAS and ALX, right?

You're quite right! That's what I get for posting quickly and while very tired. Didn't really pay total attention to what was written.

 

[Shanghai]

According to weather reports on New York radio, the storm will be

quite serious and may include some snow in some areas. Another

October snowstorm??

 

[Ryan]

Sandy crossed over Cuba last night without much weakening at all (usually the mountains knock the storm down some). She's tracking a little east of the forecast track at this point, so good news for Florida, but pretty much everywhere from North Carolina to Maine should really be keeping an eye on things. The fact that the storm will be hitting at the full moon (bringing the highest of high tides) doesn't help with the possible flooding issues, and if there is snow (I'm not convinced that we're going to see any appreciable snow except maybe up in the mountains), the fact that there is still foliage on the trees is going to cause major problems as well.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

I've heard that conditions are such that this could be a "perfect storm". The hurricane, a cold front and I guess the 3rd element is a low coming from the southwest? Guess I'll be spending part of my Saturday batting down the hatches. Luckily I don't have that much stuff outside to worry about.

Edit: I was talking to my daughter last night about fall weather and said "wait till you experience a day where it's warm and possibly raining then snowing by evening"

 

[jis]

Why would you be battening down hatches on Saturday when the storm won't get anywhere near you until Tuesday, assuming you are still in DE?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html

Over the weekend it will only cause cloudy skies and some rain in SE US.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

Why would you be battening down hatches on Saturday when the storm won't get anywhere near you until Tuesday, assuming you are still in DE?

http://www.wundergro...01218_5day.html

Over the weekend it will only cause cloudy skies and some rain in SE US.

Well, Saturday or Sunday. What I'll be "battening down" is stuff that probably needs to be put away for the winter anyway. Don't want to have to do it Monday night (since I work during the day).

 

[AmtrakBlue]

And, of course, it's too early to know if it's going to come "in" or stay out to sea. I've heard both today as the likely track.

 

[Ryan]

11am forecast track:

Jis, it looks like it's coming right for you!

Seriously, anywhere inside of the cone is a possible track for the CENTER of the storm. Damaging winds and rain are possible well outside of that area.

 

[jis]

Looks like slightly less than 60kts intensity near the eye at 8am Tuesday.

 

[BOS-T-Time]

Hello,

Well it is looking like this storm is going to be very bad and my main concern is on the NEC with the wires and flooding along the coast. Although I wouldn't mind being stuck on a train, it's not how I want to spend my vacation.

Although disappointed about not taking my first overnighter, I am going to wait until this weekend to cancel. I went ahead and booked myself BOS-CHI-WAS-BOS on the LSL, CL, and NER in December with low bucket fares in a Roomette.

I hope this storm does not do too much damage but the latest models are not looking pretty.

BOS-T-TIME

 

[jis]

The most critical factor will be wind speed projections and it is a tad bit early for that to be nailed down fully. Clearly the area that the eye passes over will get something of the order of 60 - 70mph as it looks. At present the wind speed profile of the storm at Cat 2 is quite tight, with tropical storm winds not stretching out too far. By the time it gets to new York it will probably be at most 60-70 mph at the eye, and some distnace from it will be tropical storm force winds. Hopefully not too far.

 

[pennyk]

For what it is worth, here in Orlando, we have already started feeling some of the effects of Sandy. The Florida coast is expected to have some erosion in addition to rain and winds. Here in Central Florida, we are expected to have rain off and on through the weekend. My fingers are crossed that the storm bypasses the mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England.

 

[Tracktwentynine]

Current projections from the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang:

• 45% chance: Storm strikes the coast between northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
• 30% chance: Storm makes direct hit on the Delmarva Peninsula and Washington DC.
• 20% chance: Storm runs up the coast, finally hitting coastal Massachusetts, New Hampshire, or Maine.
• 5% chance: Storm runs up the coast and then heads out to sea.

As far as the Northeast Corridor goes, there's a 75% chance that the storm will hit the eastern seaboard between Washington DC and Connecticut, which would be bad. I think there's a good chance that service will be disrupted on parts or all of the corridor sometime early next week.

 

[MrFSS]

Current projections from the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang:

• 45% chance: Storm strikes the coast between northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
• 30% chance: Storm makes direct hit on the Delmarva Peninsula and Washington DC.
• 20% chance: Storm runs up the coast, finally hitting coastal Massachusetts, New Hampshire, or Maine.
• 5% chance: Storm runs up the coast and then heads out to sea.

As far as the Northeast Corridor goes, there's a 75% chance that the storm will hit the eastern seaboard between Washington DC and Connecticut, which would be bad. I think there's a good chance that service will be disrupted on parts or all of the corridor sometime early next week.

National Hurricane Center Forecast is HERE.

 

[The Davy Crockett]

IMHO: hboy: The National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center rely very heavily on computer models for their forecasts. These computer models are based in no small part on historical data. The problem that arises in predicting Sandy's track is that, because it is an unusual and rare stitaution, there is not a lot of historical data to feed into the computer models. This increases the unreliabilty of the models and thus, the forecasts. The next 5 or 6 days should be interesting...

 

[TimePeace]

The fact that the storm will be hitting at the full moon (bringing the highest of high tides) doesn't help with the possible flooding issues

Generally true, but not extreme in this case. The biggest tides occur two or three days past the full AND the new moon, and every three months or so are the biggest. The high tides in here on the Maine coast this coming Monday will be above average, but will run a foot higher in mid-November, a couple of days past new moon.

That said, this is definitely a storm to be taken seriously. I work on the water, and we are and will be making some serious preparations for a big blow.

Wishing you all the best...

 

[CHamilton]

Those of us from other parts of the country wish all of you on the east coast our best wishes. Please stay safe, dry and warm!

 

[jis]

IMHO: hboy: The National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center rely very heavily on computer models for their forecasts. These computer models are based in no small part on historical data. The problem that arises in predicting Sandy's track is that, because it is an unusual and rare stitaution, there is not a lot of historical data to feed into the computer models. This increases the unreliabilty of the models and thus, the forecasts. The next 5 or 6 days should be interesting...

Actually they don't use a single model. They use an ensemble of models and their predictions and use a weighted average of some sort to come up with the most probable path and intensity projections together with confidence intervals for the projection. The further out you go in time the lower is the confidence and bigger is the diameter of the probability cone. All models are not based only on history. They use detailed water temp, air temp and atmospheric condition data and feed them into models that run on various Supercomputers. It is quite a fascinating thing actually. Here is what the ensemble model for this storm looks like at present:

I can't yet find the latest ensemble which brings the white line further south to the vicinity of NY City. It should be up sometime later today.

 

[The Davy Crockett]

Actually they don't use a single model.

Exactly, which is why I is used the plural 'models'

All models are not based only on history. They use detailed water temp, air temp and atmospheric condition data and feed them into models that run on various Supercomputers.

Exactly. They use histoical data to help predict how the other factors will interact.

It is quite a fascinating thing actually.

Escpecially if one is not in harm's way.

 

[pennyk]

According to the local Orlando news, the storm is moving faster than anticipated and will move past Central Florida 12 hours sooner than originally predicted. Schools will be closed in Brevard County (which is on the coast and where Cape Canaveral, Melbourne and Cocoa Beach are located). Schools will not be closed in Volusia County, where Daytona Beach is located. The Silvers do not travel through Daytona Beach or Brevard County, however, the winds in South Florida are currently pretty strong.

The wind gusts in Orlando today were 25mph. The waves in Brevard County beaches are expected to be 20-30 feet tomorrow with rip currents.

 

[RampWidget]

As of 2300 tonight in South Florida, no curtailments of operations are being reported by Amtrak, Tri-Rail, FEC, or CSX; I imagine they all have their hurricane contingency plans in effect to be used as need be.

Passenger trains, through freights, locals, & yard assignments appear to be working as usual.

 

[rile42]

With thousands upon thousands of miles traveling Amtrak from coast to coast in all seasons, this is the first time I've ever been concerned about weather affecting an upcoming trip. I am traveling to Washington DC on the Capitol Limited, leaving Cleveland early on Nov. 3rd. After arriving in DC, I am leaving late on the night of the 3rd, I am going to Boston on #66 up the NEC arriving early Sunday morning on the 4th. At Boston, my wife, who will be there visiting her sister, and I will board the Lake Shore Limited on that Sunday morning to return back to Cleveland.

I know the storm is supposed to pass through somewhere along my path a few days before my trip. I am concerned about damage that would shut down the NEC for several days. I forget how long part of it was shut down, I think it was last year, but it seemed like it was three or four days. That would put me very close to getting stranded somewhere for the very first time.