"Lynchburger" Beats Projections

[SouthernServesTheSouth]

The Lynchburg newspaper had two articles concerning the Northeast Regional. One about ridership the other on a proposal to have a bus from Roanoke, Blacksburg to Lynchburg. Hope you can get his web site to work.

http://www2.newsadvance.com/news/2010/nov/17/bus-service-roanoke-area-kemper-street-station-stu-ar-660423/

http://www2.newsadvance.com/news/2010/nov/17/lynchburg-train-beats-ridership-goals-first-year-ar-660436/

 

[Ryan]

And, there's no good news without the bad:

http://www.nbc29.com/story/13532143/funding-gap-could-close-amtrak-route

 

[Anderson]

And, there's no good news without the bad:

http://www.nbc29.com...se-amtrak-route

Oh, for crying out loud! The budgeted subsidies could cover this thing for five years, and the way traffic is going, it could probably turn a profit given a few years!

 

[Anderson]

Alright, I hate to ask this but it's the only place I know of to ask: What is the Lynchburg run costing, total? Considering that it was 136% above projected in November 2009 (if I read that article right) and that turned a profit, and that it ended the year at 161.7% of budget, and that the run clocked out with over $7.5 million in revenue...you're talking about close to 175 people per train, assuming that the Lynchburg-DC route on the charts only counts the once-daily run. If it includes the Cardinal as well, assume that the 20% lower revenue figure I've seen quoted also carries over to passenger stats, you're still looking at 106,000 total, or 145 per run.

By the way, the rumor in Charlottesville that I've seen is that they're looking to make the Cardinal daily as the next stage.

As to the 2015 figure...Virginia's DoT works on a six-year cycle, which is to blame for that figure. I'll certainly be chatting with my delegate about this (and I'll probably be some sort of staff on a State Senate campaign this coming fall), so...let's keep our fingers crossed, but I think if a good case can be made that VA just needs to put a small amount out per year as backup funding for the Lynchburg line (and the point can probably be made that simply leaving the subsidy allotment that was initially made in place would suffice...if they set aside $240k a month, that's about $3m for the year...and if the line barely touched that and looks to run a profit in FY2011, I think the state could be willing to put some "insurance money" in for the line to stay open), the line will stick around and get expanded.

What Amtrak should probably do, though, is kill the Thruway line to/from CVS/WAS and move the buses to a Roanoke/LYH run or something similar.

 

[Ryan]

By the way, the rumor in Charlottesville that I've seen is that they're looking to make the Cardinal daily as the next stage.

That's more than just a rumor, Amtrak published a route improvement plan that proposed to do exactly that a few months ago (look for it here, it was discussed).

 

[AlanB]

Alright, I hate to ask this but it's the only place I know of to ask: What is the Lynchburg run costing, total? Considering that it was 136% above projected in November 2009 (if I read that article right) and that turned a profit, and that it ended the year at 161.7% of budget, and that the run clocked out with over $7.5 million in revenue...you're talking about close to 175 people per train, assuming that the Lynchburg-DC route on the charts only counts the once-daily run. If it includes the Cardinal as well, assume that the 20% lower revenue figure I've seen quoted also carries over to passenger stats, you're still looking at 106,000 total, or 145 per run.

Revenue for the first year was $7.8 Million against expenses of $5.7 Million. That comes with a caveot however.

First, Amtrak in response to critcism and input from Congress is busy redoing how they calculate and report expenses. That started this past fiscal year, 2010, with how the monthly reports are formatted. One of the bigger issues over the years has been how Amtrak handles depreciation and the value of its equipment and the value of capital improvement.

The new charts provide a column called Capital charges. At present the reports are not providing any expenses in this column as Amtrak revamps their accounting practices. So the $2.1M profit reflected above will most likely decrease some once Amtrak gets that Capital charge included. I don't believe that it should turn the train from a money maker into a loser, but I've no doubt that the profit will decrease some.

 

[George Harris]

I don't believe that it should turn the train from a money maker into a loser, but I've no doubt that the profit will decrease some.

Don't remember the details, but Amtrak financial manipulation did manage to turn the LA to San Diego service from money generator to money loser a few years back.

Also, do not know the accuracy of this, but have heard that some of the Northeast Corridor costs are spread systemwide, including to trains that never see the NEC.

 

[Eric S]

What Amtrak should probably do, though, is kill the Thruway line to/from CVS/WAS and move the buses to a Roanoke/LYH run or something similar.

Isn't that Thruway bus just a regular Greyhound run that accepts Amtrak Thruway tickets, rather than a dedicated Thruway bus that could presumably be redeployed to a different run?

 

[PaulM]

I'd really like to know why these KCS de MEXICO, engines, and this weird consist was rolling 'tween Roanoke and Lynchburg.

Just curious. Does the color scheme make it "de Mexico"? A couple of days ago I saw several engines with the same color scheme pulling a load of grain cars northbound on the BNSF just south of St. Joe, MO. Instead of the KCS name and logo, they had TFM on them. (I guess it stands for Transportación Ferroviaria Mexicana).

 

[Anderson]

What Amtrak should probably do, though, is kill the Thruway line to/from CVS/WAS and move the buses to a Roanoke/LYH run or something similar.

Isn't that Thruway bus just a regular Greyhound run that accepts Amtrak Thruway tickets, rather than a dedicated Thruway bus that could presumably be redeployed to a different run?

Good point...still, I'm surprised the Cardinal lists a Greyhound run from CVS-WAS considering that the train makes the same run.

 

[Eric S]

What Amtrak should probably do, though, is kill the Thruway line to/from CVS/WAS and move the buses to a Roanoke/LYH run or something similar.

Isn't that Thruway bus just a regular Greyhound run that accepts Amtrak Thruway tickets, rather than a dedicated Thruway bus that could presumably be redeployed to a different run?

Good point...still, I'm surprised the Cardinal lists a Greyhound run from CVS-WAS considering that the train makes the same run.

There do seem to be a few oddities in where Thruway schedules are listed, or more specifically which individual train/service schedule lists which Thruway services.

 

[AlanB]

What Amtrak should probably do, though, is kill the Thruway line to/from CVS/WAS and move the buses to a Roanoke/LYH run or something similar.

Isn't that Thruway bus just a regular Greyhound run that accepts Amtrak Thruway tickets, rather than a dedicated Thruway bus that could presumably be redeployed to a different run?

Good point...still, I'm surprised the Cardinal lists a Greyhound run from CVS-WAS considering that the train makes the same run.

Because the Cardinal only runs 3 days per week.

 

[Anderson]

What Amtrak should probably do, though, is kill the Thruway line to/from CVS/WAS and move the buses to a Roanoke/LYH run or something similar.

Isn't that Thruway bus just a regular Greyhound run that accepts Amtrak Thruway tickets, rather than a dedicated Thruway bus that could presumably be redeployed to a different run?

Good point...still, I'm surprised the Cardinal lists a Greyhound run from CVS-WAS considering that the train makes the same run.

Because the Cardinal only runs 3 days per week.

True, though I guess the counter-question is "And now that they have not only the regional running that route but will probably be adding a daily Cardinal..." Though the latter hasn't taken effect, I know.

 

[Richmond, Virginian]

The Lynchburg train ridership figures for October to December are now available from various files on the Amtrak website.

October: 8,585

November: 9,915

December: 11,200

Figures for the Crescent are also posted:

October: 21,786 (down 2145)

November: 23,382 (down 240)

December: 24,989 (down 157)

So obviously the good news on the Lynchburg train continues, and whatever negative effect there has been on the Crescent appears to be small and diminishing.

I know this is kind of an old post to be responding to, but it's still relevant considering the upcoming 2013 Norfolk service. My question is: Where on the Amtrak website did you find files showing figures broken down by station by train? I would _love_ to have this information for comparing riders on trains that stop at both of Richmond's stations, RVR and RVM.

 

[AlanB]

The Lynchburg train ridership figures for October to December are now available from various files on the Amtrak website.

October: 8,585

November: 9,915

December: 11,200

Figures for the Crescent are also posted:

October: 21,786 (down 2145)

November: 23,382 (down 240)

December: 24,989 (down 157)

So obviously the good news on the Lynchburg train continues, and whatever negative effect there has been on the Crescent appears to be small and diminishing.

I know this is kind of an old post to be responding to, but it's still relevant considering the upcoming 2013 Norfolk service. My question is: Where on the Amtrak website did you find files showing figures broken down by station by train? I would _love_ to have this information for comparing riders on trains that stop at both of Richmond's stations, RVR and RVM.

Boardings/alightings by station can be found on the State Fact Sheets found here. Ridership numbers by route can be found in the Monthly Performance reports located at the bottom of this page.

 

[Richmond, Virginia n]

The Lynchburg train ridership figures for October to December are now available from various files on the Amtrak website.

October: 8,585

November: 9,915

December: 11,200

Figures for the Crescent are also posted:

October: 21,786 (down 2145)

November: 23,382 (down 240)

December: 24,989 (down 157)

So obviously the good news on the Lynchburg train continues, and whatever negative effect there has been on the Crescent appears to be small and diminishing.

I know this is kind of an old post to be responding to, but it's still relevant considering the upcoming 2013 Norfolk service. My question is: Where on the Amtrak website did you find files showing figures broken down by station by train? I would _love_ to have this information for comparing riders on trains that stop at both of Richmond's stations, RVR and RVM.

Boardings/alightings by station can be found on the State Fact Sheets found here. Ridership numbers by route can be found in the Monthly Performance reports located at the bottom of this page.

Thank you Alan. I found those earlier today and I've been going over. The state pages I've seen before, and while they do give ridership by station for FY2009/2010, they lack ridership by station by train. For instance, on a given train, how many boardings and alightings per station? Specifically, on train 66 for example, how many boardings/alightings at Staples Mill, how many at Main Street.

In the monthly reports, yes there is route performance data, but still not the details I want.

Why do I want this? I'm trying to see passeners' preference for Staples Mill versus Main Street when given the option, considering the fact that most Richmond trains only go to Staples Mill.

All I'm getting is that Main Street gets about 1/10 the boardings/alightings as Staples Mill, with about 1/5 as many trains.

 

[Anderson]

The Lynchburg train ridership figures for October to December are now available from various files on the Amtrak website.

October: 8,585

November: 9,915

December: 11,200

Figures for the Crescent are also posted:

October: 21,786 (down 2145)

November: 23,382 (down 240)

December: 24,989 (down 157)

So obviously the good news on the Lynchburg train continues, and whatever negative effect there has been on the Crescent appears to be small and diminishing.

I know this is kind of an old post to be responding to, but it's still relevant considering the upcoming 2013 Norfolk service. My question is: Where on the Amtrak website did you find files showing figures broken down by station by train? I would _love_ to have this information for comparing riders on trains that stop at both of Richmond's stations, RVR and RVM.

Boardings/alightings by station can be found on the State Fact Sheets found here. Ridership numbers by route can be found in the Monthly Performance reports located at the bottom of this page.

Thank you Alan. I found those earlier today and I've been going over. The state pages I've seen before, and while they do give ridership by station for FY2009/2010, they lack ridership by station by train. For instance, on a given train, how many boardings and alightings per station? Specifically, on train 66 for example, how many boardings/alightings at Staples Mill, how many at Main Street.

In the monthly reports, yes there is route performance data, but still not the details I want.

Why do I want this? I'm trying to see passeners' preference for Staples Mill versus Main Street when given the option, considering the fact that most Richmond trains only go to Staples Mill.

All I'm getting is that Main Street gets about 1/10 the boardings/alightings as Staples Mill, with about 1/5 as many trains.

Well, here's one thing to remember: A not insignificant number of people take the train NPN/WBG-RVR and then change to another train. That said, remember: RVM only has the two (or three) regionals. RVR also has the Silvers, the Palmetto, and the Carolinian, all of which run south. Anyone leaving Richmond for the Carolinas, Georgia, or Florida has to use RVR instead of RVM.

There's another wrinkle, too: The NPN-WAS Regional runs through RVR at about 11 AM and hits DC at 1:30. You've got trains on the hour every hour at RVR from 5:00-8:00 AM; the 6:00 AM gets you to DC at 8:15 AM. The last train to NPN (which goes through RVM) leaves DC mid-afternoon most days (2:30 PM); you've got 5 later options to get to RVR. So...going through RVR allows you to catch a train up, spend a full day in DC, and catch a train back (or catch one back the next day, having spent two full days in DC). RVM simply doesn't have that option.

To illustrate this, if I have the choice of catching the train from NPN-WAS and then continuing on, or driving to RVR and catching the train from there, I'm often inclined to do the latter because of the return options (I don't consider driving to WAS an option because of the parking costs, as I learned a few years ago...I'll do that if it's a weekend train to Chicago or an Acela up north for a weekend, but nothing more).

 

[Big Iron]

Below is a link to a news article about the possible bus extension from Lynchburg to Roanoke. Also a blurb about extending the bus to Blacksburg. I'm not so sure they have underestimated the number of travelers to Blacksburg. Something for further discussion perhaps.

http://www2.newsadvance.com/news/2011/jan/03/senator-roanoke-bus-link-lynchburg-train-feasible-ar-750864/

 

[Anderson]

I think they're shooting low, but I'm not sure how low. 10 per day in each direction would be 7300 rides per year. That said, special Blacksburg-Lynchburg (or Blacksburg-Lexington, depending on the time of day you want to work with...the simple timing of the Lynchburger versus the Cardinal makes the bus an unattractive) connections would make sense at the very least when school is in session, and particularly surrounding breaks.

To explain: Your last train leaves LYH at 7:40 AM. For Blacksburg, this means you're looking at a bus departure before 6 AM. Your first train back arrives at 8:36 PM. That means you're getting back to campus at 10:30 PM. This sort of service is dubious at best when compared with the vaguely convenient noon departure and 4:00 arrival in Clifton Forge...add on two hours for bus service (LYH and CLF are about the same distance from Roanoke) and you're looking at a 10 AM departure and a 6 PM return...let me say very clearly that in a college market, a 6 AM departure is a non-starter if there's not an all-night party preceding it.

Another proposal to punt around: Could a Harrisonburg-CVS or Harrisonburg-Staunton linked bus service, at least at breaks, be a seller? Harrisonburg is about 40 minutes from Staunton and the Cardinal and about 1:10 from Charlottesville (and thrice-daily service).

 

[Big Iron]

I think they're shooting low, but I'm not sure how low. 10 per day in each direction would be 7300 rides per year. That said, special Blacksburg-Lynchburg (or Blacksburg-Lexington, depending on the time of day you want to work with...the simple timing of the Lynchburger versus the Cardinal makes the bus an unattractive) connections would make sense at the very least when school is in session, and particularly surrounding breaks.

To explain: Your last train leaves LYH at 7:40 AM. For Blacksburg, this means you're looking at a bus departure before 6 AM. Your first train back arrives at 8:36 PM. That means you're getting back to campus at 10:30 PM. This sort of service is dubious at best when compared with the vaguely convenient noon departure and 4:00 arrival in Clifton Forge...add on two hours for bus service (LYH and CLF are about the same distance from Roanoke) and you're looking at a 10 AM departure and a 6 PM return...let me say very clearly that in a college market, a 6 AM departure is a non-starter if there's not an all-night party preceding it.

Another proposal to punt around: Could a Harrisonburg-CVS or Harrisonburg-Staunton linked bus service, at least at breaks, be a seller? Harrisonburg is about 40 minutes from Staunton and the Cardinal and about 1:10 from Charlottesville (and thrice-daily service).

Regarding a 6 AM departure, a true Tech student would just party until someone poured them on the bus :lol:

In the early 80's I would take the bus from Harrisonburg back to home in Richmond. Then the Hound would go from Harrisonburg to Staunton and then connect to Trailways from Staunton to Richmond. The Trailways stopped in Waynesboro and Charlottesville before reaching Richmond. I read a few years back that Greyhound cancelled the bus that ran from Roanoke to DC which eliminated bus serviced from the Valley to Richmond. I haven't checked their timetable to see if the bus is back. There are still two/three busses eachway from CVS to RVR.

 

[Anderson]

Point taken on the true Tech student. William and Mary was also far more tame...and also more accessible via the WBG station three to four blocks from campus. I once caught a train back to campus from a Model UN conference gone bad.

CVS-RVR isn't the issue; it's Harrisonburg to CVS/Staunton. It might be worth looking into whether the school would be willing to look into some sort of shuttle deal: William and Mary did airport shuttles as far as Norfolk and Richmond (PHF is a mediocre airport), and school vans were used.