"Lynchburger" Beats Projections

[Ryan]

Ryan-VT, the question on the table is not who made the allegations, but whether or not they are true. You would be a lot more convincing if you addressed the facts rather than throwing mud at those you disagree with.
I see no relevance between being a supporter of passenger rail serivce and either political liberalism or political conservatism. There are political issues completely unrelated to Amtrak or other rail issues that would trump a candidate's views on rail, either pro or con, even if it cost me my job, which happens to be related to rail.

Who died and made you moderator? Try rereading my posts since you seem to have skipped over the parts where I did address the facts (or lack of them on the part of the people making the allegations).

 

[Guest_George Harris_*]

Ryan-VT, the question on the table is not who made the allegations, but whether or not they are true. You would be a lot more convincing if you addressed the facts rather than throwing mud at those you disagree with.
I see no relevance between being a supporter of passenger rail serivce and either political liberalism or political conservatism. There are political issues completely unrelated to Amtrak or other rail issues that would trump a candidate's views on rail, either pro or con, even if it cost me my job, which happens to be related to rail.

Who died and made you moderator? Try rereading my posts since you seem to have skipped over the parts where I did address the facts (or lack of them on the part of the people making the allegations).

I read them. No further comments.

 

[Green Maned Lion]

I thought we all agreed not to talk politics unrelated to Amtrak?

Fortunately we believe in "innocent until proven guilty" and being able to back up extraordinary claims that we make (which clearly you're not able to do). Thanks for playing.

Just do a little poking around on the web and you can find a host of actual convictions, with the defendants pleading guilty to voter fraud charges, while working for ACORN. So there is proof to say that SOME ACORN employees have tampered with the voting process. I'll leave it at that and move away from the politics for now and also retract my "playbook" comment as being too broad in nature.

You have found convictions by a employees of an organization. You have not determined the organizations internal policy in such matters. Likewise, while Acorn might help register voters and help them get to places where they can vote, and while they might select area most likely to vote for a candidate that organization supports, you have not determined that they have only allowed people voting for their candidate to participate. Find proof of that. Put up or shut up, lad.

 

[Big Iron]

I thought we all agreed not to talk politics unrelated to Amtrak?

Fortunately we believe in "innocent until proven guilty" and being able to back up extraordinary claims that we make (which clearly you're not able to do). Thanks for playing.

Just do a little poking around on the web and you can find a host of actual convictions, with the defendants pleading guilty to voter fraud charges, while working for ACORN. So there is proof to say that SOME ACORN employees have tampered with the voting process. I'll leave it at that and move away from the politics for now and also retract my "playbook" comment as being too broad in nature.

You have found convictions by a employees of an organization. You have not determined the organizations internal policy in such matters. Likewise, while Acorn might help register voters and help them get to places where they can vote, and while they might select area most likely to vote for a candidate that organization supports, you have not determined that they have only allowed people voting for their candidate to participate. Find proof of that. Put up or shut up, lad.

GML, keep a tight grip on those rose colored glasses of yours. I'll continue to earn my way through these good ole United States of ours and hope that work ethic and honesty continue to rule the day. The sad part is that taking the easy way out is gaining fast.....a true sham.........uh, shame.

 

[volkris]

Just to add my two cents, for a college to run enormous voter drive, officially or unofficially, is standard operating procedure these days. And that makes sense: how could either political persuasion pass up an opportunity to have at these naive, idealistic, poorly informed yet strongly opinionated kids with nothing better to do that afternoon than cast a vote? Liberty University is hardly unique even if they do take it slightly farther than most other colleges.

As for ACORN, well, questionable and overtly fraudulent voting operations are standard operating procedure for South Louisiana where I grew up, and let's just say watching how that organization operates--even as it describes itself!--makes me feel right at home.

Yes, Ryan, there have been leaked and authenticated documents from inside ACORN that outline manipulative strategies and a clear political agenda that goes beyond helping the poor. That they've been caught so often just means they're amateurs relative to the LA politicians who have this thing down pat

 

[Ryan]

Yes, Ryan, there have been leaked and authenticated documents from inside ACORN that outline manipulative strategies and a clear political agenda that goes beyond helping the poor. That they've been caught so often just means they're amateurs relative to the LA politicians who have this thing down pat

That still falls short of documenting actual fraud, no? Of course they have a clear political agenda, which is the real reason that they're so thoroughly despised.

 

[wayman]

Just to add my two cents, for a college to run enormous voter drive, officially or unofficially, is standard operating procedure these days. And that makes sense: how could either political persuasion pass up an opportunity to have at these naive, idealistic, poorly informed yet strongly opinionated kids with nothing better to do that afternoon than cast a vote? Liberty University is hardly unique even if they do take it slightly farther than most other colleges.

I'd appreciate your listing other examples of colleges/universities where a) the student body is over 10,000, b) the university administration clearly tells the students a preferred slate of candidates, c) the university cancels all classes on election day, and d) the university provides buses to take every student to the polls. While C and D are especially unusual, even B is rather unusual behavior for a school administration to take except in the case of religious institutions (and even then, I think it's unusual), and the combination of B and A is especially unusual. Liberty's situation is extremely unique so far as I know.

Also, referring to earlier posts in this thread, Liberty's situation is extremely ironic as well. I don't know to what extent Amtrak has specifically targeted advertisements to the Liberty campus, but Liberty students appear to be patronizing the train well. (Not that there are surveys and actual statistics on this, but passenger load saw a spike the weekend before Thanksgiving, and most of the riders were young folk, which coincides with Liberty's entire week off for Thanksgiving -- a much longer Thanksgiving break than any other school in the area gets.)

 

[Philzy]

First Off - I'm sorry I've missed out on such an indepth discussion... I've been working my backside off over the holidays.

Second, how wonderful is it that ticket sales are through the roof? I'm so hppy to see this.

Third, and extension to Roanoke would be awesome but at what cost would it come to the rest of the current route. Would the current train be arriving in Roanoke after a time needed to turn it around to head north again? Would that mean that a second daily train would be put in place to maintain the current schedule and also alow for a departure from Roanoke at a reasonable hour that people would actually want to use it? This would also allow a later departure from DC allowing for better connections and the "one day" round trip journey that so many had mentioned prior to the route starting. where would a second trainset come from? We all know Amtrak has so many spare train sets just sitting around - sarcasm -

SO, lastly in closing what burden would extending the line to Roanoke create versus benifit? Is it finally time for the state of VA to actually buy their own rolling stock, and keep Amtrak operating it? If so, I'd like to request train cars with big windows, something sleek and futuristic looking... or am i just dreaming here...

Thoughts?

-Philzy

 

[Rafi]

Philzy-

Extending the train to Roanoke on the current run would have a minimal schedule impact on the train; it's just an hour west of LYH. The train would have plenty of time to turn and be serviced overnight before the next morning's departure. It's if/when service is extended west toward Bristol that Virginia will have to start looking at a second train frequency. For now, the only roadblocks between Roanoke and Amtrak service are:

1). Virginia deciding to push ahead with funding

2). Negotiations with Norfolk Southern

3). Platform and station work at Roanoke and possibly Bedford

The benefits of going to Roanoke are well-known within Amtrak. It's a major population center that can be tapped, and ridership projections are very encouraging. Again, it's Virginia's call.

And to respond to Big Iron's comments earlier:

I think I may have made reference to this earlier in the thread, or was just thinking (dreaming). Split the train to run through Farmville into Richmond and extend to Roanoke thereby Amtrak could capture Virginia Tech, Roanoke area colleges, Lynchburg, Longwood Universtiy and other Richmond bound traffic. Or, have buses meet the Regional in CVS to make the RVR connection.

Splitting the train at Lynchburg is problematic from a number of logistical angles without substantial investment from Virginia (switching, crews, capacity, etc). I think what you're more likely to see is a new service tracing the proposed TDX map between Bristol and Richmond via Roanoke and Lynchburg. That said, the NS line through Farmville (via High Bridge) was torn up about 4 years ago and has partially become a hiking trail. The state now owns the line and while rails could be re-laid, it's not likely right now. Instead, service between Lynchburg and Richmond would have to go via NS' southerly route through Burkeville.

Lastly, I'll forgive you for forgetting Hampden-Sydney College in Farmville. <grin> We put Longwood on the MAP!

Rafi

 

[rrdude]

Philzy-Extending the train to Roanoke on the current run would have a minimal schedule impact on the train; it's just an hour west of LYH. The train would have plenty of time to turn and be serviced overnight before the next morning's departure. It's if/when service is extended west toward Bristol that Virginia will have to start looking at a second train frequency. For now, the only roadblocks between Roanoke and Amtrak service are:

1). Virginia deciding to push ahead with funding

2). Negotiations with Norfolk Southern

3). Platform and station work at Roanoke and possibly Bedford

The benefits of going to Roanoke are well-known within Amtrak. It's a major population center that can be tapped, and ridership projections are very encouraging. Again, it's Virginia's call.

And to respond to Big Iron's comments earlier:

I think I may have made reference to this earlier in the thread, or was just thinking (dreaming). Split the train to run through Farmville into Richmond and extend to Roanoke thereby Amtrak could capture Virginia Tech, Roanoke area colleges, Lynchburg, Longwood Universtiy and other Richmond bound traffic. Or, have buses meet the Regional in CVS to make the RVR connection.

Splitting the train at Lynchburg is problematic from a number of logistical angles without substantial investment from Virginia (switching, crews, capacity, etc). I think what you're more likely to see is a new service tracing the proposed TDX map between Bristol and Richmond via Roanoke and Lynchburg. That said, the NS line through Farmville (via High Bridge) was torn up about 4 years ago and has partially become a hiking trail. The state now owns the line and while rails could be re-laid, it's not likely right now. Instead, service between Lynchburg and Richmond would have to go via NS' southerly route through Burkeville.

Lastly, I'll forgive you for forgetting Hampden-Sydney College in Farmville. <grin> We put Longwood on the MAP!

Rafi

Finally, some sanity in this thread. Thanks Rafi.

I still gotta laff at the comment. "Who died and made you the moderator........." Thanks, I needed a good chuckle.........

 

[SouthernServesTheSouth]

I visited Shannon Valentine's website. It was somewhat unique to see biblical quotes on the homepage. Your math speaks volumes of that voting district. Time for Amtrak to spend some marketing dollars on Liberty's campus. If Amtrak can sway that campus towards taking the train then everybody wins.
I think I may have made reference to this earlier in the thread, or was just thinking (dreaming). Split the train to run through Farmville into Richmond and extend to Roanoke thereby Amtrak could capture Virginia Tech, Roanoke area colleges, Lynchburg, Longwood Universtiy and other Richmond bound traffic. Or, have buses meet the Regional in CVS to make the RVR connection.

Train can't go through Farmville, NS pulled up the tracks 2 or 3 years ago. Now a hiking trail to "High Bridge". All tracks between Pamplin City to Crew removed.

 

[SouthernServesTheSouth]

Whops, just saw Rafi's reply. He covered it well.

 

[mkellerm]

The Lynchburg train ridership figures for October to December are now available from various files on the Amtrak website.

October: 8,585

November: 9,915

December: 11,200

Figures for the Crescent are also posted:

October: 21,786 (down 2145)

November: 23,382 (down 240)

December: 24,989 (down 157)

So obviously the good news on the Lynchburg train continues, and whatever negative effect there has been on the Crescent appears to be small and diminishing.

 

[afigg]

The Lynchburg train ridership figures for October to December are now available from various files on the Amtrak website.
October: 8,585

November: 9,915

December: 11,200

Impressive numbers, especially the increase from month to month. Wonder how many of these are college students?

If they extend the train to Roanoke, do people think that will be close enough to significantly tap into the Virginia Tech market? It is about 25 miles from Roanoke to Blacksburg. Not a short trip. With 30,000 plus students at VA Tech, it could lead to packed trains in Roanoke on the days the university goes on breaks.

 

[AlanB]

Afigg,

While impressive, please remember that the holidays fell within those last two months, something that does help to boost ridership throughout the system. We can't be certain that the increases will hold.

 

[rrdude]

Afigg,
While impressive, please remember that the holidays fell within those last two months, something that does help to boost ridership throughout the system. We can't be certain that the increases will hold.

Alan's correct, but I still believe this route/train (and when they add Roanoke) has "Winner" written all over it.

 

[VT Hokie]

It sure would be nice to have rail transportation to Roanoke! I'd visit my alma mater more often if I could catch a train there. I'd even consider using the existing Lynchburg service to do so, if there's a car rental place near the station. But Roanoke would be infinitely better!

 

[Rafi]

I think VT Hokie will agree with me in saying this...

In Virginia terms, if it's less than an hour away, it's "local." So 25 miles to Tech is 'nuthin. As long as the station has ample parking, you'll see plenty of college business from Roanoke, Tech, Roanoke College, Hollins, W&L, and even Salem. I'd even expect to see timed shuttle services from the various colleges/universities to the train. Amtrak knows the market is there just waiting to be tapped.

Rafi

 

[VT Hokie]

I certainly agree. As a student without a car, I used to take shuttle services between VT and Roanoke Airport during the holidays.

 

[Ryan]

Rafi and the fellow Hokie nailed it. Depending on the timing, expect that train to be sold out every Friday and Sunday. This would have been awesome when I was down there.

 

[Big Iron]

I attended a meeting about high speed rail on the NS from Petersburg to Norfolk on the NS line. Not true HS rail but the 90 or 110 mph variety. I left my notes at the office but I'll post some of the study details soon. As related to the Lynchburg trains extension to Roanoke, I asked if the Commonwealth was considering this and a possible timeframe for implementation. The answer I got was "funding permitting, 2015 is when the extension to Roanoke would begin."

 

[Big Iron]

Philzy-Extending the train to Roanoke on the current run would have a minimal schedule impact on the train; it's just an hour west of LYH. The train would have plenty of time to turn and be serviced overnight before the next morning's departure. It's if/when service is extended west toward Bristol that Virginia will have to start looking at a second train frequency. For now, the only roadblocks between Roanoke and Amtrak service are:

1). Virginia deciding to push ahead with funding

2). Negotiations with Norfolk Southern

3). Platform and station work at Roanoke and possibly Bedford

The benefits of going to Roanoke are well-known within Amtrak. It's a major population center that can be tapped, and ridership projections are very encouraging. Again, it's Virginia's call.

And to respond to Big Iron's comments earlier:

I think I may have made reference to this earlier in the thread, or was just thinking (dreaming). Split the train to run through Farmville into Richmond and extend to Roanoke thereby Amtrak could capture Virginia Tech, Roanoke area colleges, Lynchburg, Longwood Universtiy and other Richmond bound traffic. Or, have buses meet the Regional in CVS to make the RVR connection.

Splitting the train at Lynchburg is problematic from a number of logistical angles without substantial investment from Virginia (switching, crews, capacity, etc). I think what you're more likely to see is a new service tracing the proposed TDX map between Bristol and Richmond via Roanoke and Lynchburg. That said, the NS line through Farmville (via High Bridge) was torn up about 4 years ago and has partially become a hiking trail. The state now owns the line and while rails could be re-laid, it's not likely right now. Instead, service between Lynchburg and Richmond would have to go via NS' southerly route through Burkeville.

Lastly, I'll forgive you for forgetting Hampden-Sydney College in Farmville. <grin> We put Longwood on the MAP!

Rafi

Rafi, my apologies for omitting HSC, grave error on my part. Nice football season last year by the way.

 

[afigg]

I attended a meeting about high speed rail on the NS from Petersburg to Norfolk on the NS line. Not true HS rail but the 90 or 110 mph variety. I left my notes at the office but I'll post some of the study details soon. As related to the Lynchburg trains extension to Roanoke, I asked if the Commonwealth was considering this and a possible timeframe for implementation. The answer I got was "funding permitting, 2015 is when the extension to Roanoke would begin."

2015? The freshmen starting at VA Tech next fall would graduate before the Regional would be extended to Roanoke if the slow moving bureaucracy has its way. The Jan 2010 Amtrak Ink has been posted to the Amtrak website and it has this to say about the new Lynchburg service:

"Across country, the Northeast Regional service to Lynchburg is making a big splash among passengers who like the convenience of traveling directly from cities along the U.S. 29 corridor in Virginia to destinations as far north as Boston without having to change trains. In October 2009, its first month of operation, the new service carried 8,585 passengers, exceeding expected demand by 49 percent. For the fiscal year, through Nov. 30, total ridership on the Washington-Lynchburg corridor was 18,500, a whopping 158 percent above the anticipated 7,179 passengers.

“Since we launched the service in October, our performance has been stellar, and I’ve heard nothing but good things from our passengers,” according to Trainmaster Deborjha Blackwell, who added that the service should be dubbed “the Collegiate” due to the number of student passengers from area colleges. “There’s been a lot of use of the Quiet Car® and Business class has been pretty full,” she added.

“In partnership with Virginia, our goal with this new service is to provide Central Virginia with a transportation alternative, and we’re encouraged by the enthusiasm Virginians have shown for the service,” said Jay McArthur, principal officer, Policy and Development. McArthur cautioned that ridership is cyclical, with increases during the summer months and holiday season. “Ridership over the next few months will provide us with a better indicator of the service’s success,” he pointed out.

Originating from Lynchburg for the first time, Northeast Regional service makes Virginia stops in Charlottesville, Culpeper, Manassas and Alexandria, and stops for Virginia Railway Express passengers at Burke Center and L’Enfant Plaza. The morning service departs Lynchburg weekdays at 7:38 a.m., returning at 8:36 p.m.

The new service is funded by a grant from the Commonwealth of Virginia as part of three-year demonstration program designed to provide more transportation options for Virginians. The grant will also fund an additional Northeast Regional frequency originating from Richmond to New York expected in June of 2010. Virginia is the fifteenth state to partner with Amtrak to operate state-supported trains. Other partners include California, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin."

So we have an alternate name for the Regional extension: "The Collegiate". Eh, not very catchy.

 

[Big Iron]

I attended a meeting about high speed rail on the NS from Petersburg to Norfolk on the NS line. Not true HS rail but the 90 or 110 mph variety. I left my notes at the office but I'll post some of the study details soon. As related to the Lynchburg trains extension to Roanoke, I asked if the Commonwealth was considering this and a possible timeframe for implementation. The answer I got was "funding permitting, 2015 is when the extension to Roanoke would begin."

2015? The freshmen starting at VA Tech next fall would graduate before the Regional would be extended to Roanoke if the slow moving bureaucracy has its way. The Jan 2010 Amtrak Ink has been posted to the Amtrak website and it has this to say about the new Lynchburg service:

"Across country, the Northeast Regional service to Lynchburg is making a big splash among passengers who like the convenience of traveling directly from cities along the U.S. 29 corridor in Virginia to destinations as far north as Boston without having to change trains. In October 2009, its first month of operation, the new service carried 8,585 passengers, exceeding expected demand by 49 percent. For the fiscal year, through Nov. 30, total ridership on the Washington-Lynchburg corridor was 18,500, a whopping 158 percent above the anticipated 7,179 passengers.

“Since we launched the service in October, our performance has been stellar, and I’ve heard nothing but good things from our passengers,” according to Trainmaster Deborjha Blackwell, who added that the service should be dubbed “the Collegiate” due to the number of student passengers from area colleges. “There’s been a lot of use of the Quiet Car® and Business class has been pretty full,” she added.

“In partnership with Virginia, our goal with this new service is to provide Central Virginia with a transportation alternative, and we’re encouraged by the enthusiasm Virginians have shown for the service,” said Jay McArthur, principal officer, Policy and Development. McArthur cautioned that ridership is cyclical, with increases during the summer months and holiday season. “Ridership over the next few months will provide us with a better indicator of the service’s success,” he pointed out.

Originating from Lynchburg for the first time, Northeast Regional service makes Virginia stops in Charlottesville, Culpeper, Manassas and Alexandria, and stops for Virginia Railway Express passengers at Burke Center and L’Enfant Plaza. The morning service departs Lynchburg weekdays at 7:38 a.m., returning at 8:36 p.m.

The new service is funded by a grant from the Commonwealth of Virginia as part of three-year demonstration program designed to provide more transportation options for Virginians. The grant will also fund an additional Northeast Regional frequency originating from Richmond to New York expected in June of 2010. Virginia is the fifteenth state to partner with Amtrak to operate state-supported trains. Other partners include California, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin."

So we have an alternate name for the Regional extension: "The Collegiate". Eh, not very catchy.

It's nice to see that projections can be conservative and this is indeed good news. The 2015 comments was attributed to a person (IIRC) that works for Virginia's Department of Rail and Public Transportation.

At least Amtrak and the Commonwealth are looking at ways to connect the western part of the state to the east in a more effective and frequent manner. Higher speed rail seems like a good idea but the study results for creating pax service from Richmond through Petersburg to Norfolk, 101 route miles, would cost between $68 million and $100 million to increase speeds from 79 mph to 90 mph, also to make station improvements. The time savings would only be 6 minutes. That money could be better used to increase train frequencies and add routes using exisitng freight infrastructure. A route through Petersburg makes sense for the traveller going to the Tiedwater Region of the state as you don't need to go through DC/ALX to change trains.

 

[EB_OBS]

From the Lynchburg News & Advance:
Amtrak's Lynchburg-Washington line beats projections

"Fares produced $414,000, which was 87 percent more than expected and almost enough to cover the cost of operating the train. Virginia has budgeted a monthly subsidy of $242,000 for the train, but only $48,000 of that will be needed for October, according to figures Page gave the transportation board."

Wow! That's the kinda news story that needs to get around. Very nice.