Malaysia Airlines loses contact with Flight - 239 pax/crew

[Crossover]

In fairness my comment is removed .

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Turns out that 777 might not have crashed after all. This is the craziest accident I've heard about in a long time.

 

[jis]

Here is an NY Times article that talks of how Malaysian Armed Forces screwed up in not intercepting a radar target that no one knew for sure what it was. It apparently flew right over Butterworth/Penang, and apparently the folks who were in charge of monitoring the primary radar did not even notice!

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/world/asia/series-of-errors-by-malaysia-mounts-complicating-the-task-of-finding-flight-370.html?hp

Sounds pretty bad doesn't it?

 

[jis]

Considering the way the Chinese control their airspace I have a very hard time believing the northern arc is a likely scenario.

Well, most of us would think that but it's not always true. Radar is expensive to install and operate, and China's a vast country. I couldn't see this situation occurring if it were a KAL jet coasting in from the East China Sea near Shanghai without comm or transponder, you better believe they would have been intercepted. But out west there's a lot of mountainous wilderness, I'm sure there are holes in coverage quite large.

The question though is, what routing would they use to get out west? It would have to cross into China either across the McMahon Line (one of the most heavily monitored area with all sorts of claims and counter claims that has led to at least one outright conflict and is subject to frequent incursions, shootings aerial incursions etc.), or fly all the way across India and then cross the heavily guarded India/China border in the west. What other ways do they have of getting in there with maybe 5 hours worth of fuel left after their little wiggly jaunt in the Bay of Bengal?

Admittedly, I have no clue. but this is the question that comes to mind. Of course all would depend on how good primary radar monitoring is in China and India. If they are even half as bad as apparently the Malaysians turned out to be according to the other NY Times article I posted in the previous message to this, then of course all bets are off.

 

[tp49]

Considering the way the Chinese control their airspace I have a very hard time believing the northern arc is a likely scenario.

Well, most of us would think that but it's not always true. Radar is expensive to install and operate, and China's a vast country. I couldn't see this situation occurring if it were a KAL jet coasting in from the East China Sea near Shanghai without comm or transponder, you better believe they would have been intercepted. But out west there's a lot of mountainous wilderness, I'm sure there are holes in coverage quite large.

The thing is though that China's airspace is strictly controlled by the PLA. Hence my belief that that the PLA has a good idea as to what is going on in their airspace. And as jis mentioned above the Indo-Chinese border region is an area that is well covered militarily. The same thought came to me if per chance it flew over Burma and the "Golden Triangle" region. The third thing that gives me pause is Beijing's reaction to the situation. If the plane flew over China you can bet that Beijing would be rubbing this fact in the faces of anyone in the region that they could. However, as of now, Beijing has remained quiet except to blast (and rightly so) Malaysia's handling of the investigation.

 

[jis]

It is absolutely mind-boggling how many people seriously think that all GPS devices send their position information to a satellite!

Hence the argument that if there were Smartphones with GPS on them in the plane that was turned on, then the GPS satellite would know where the Smartphone was located and hence where the plane was.

Another misconception is that somehow if you have a cell phone that will automagically start working no matter which country you are in, or even in the middle of the ocean, only if you could get to a low enough altitude perhaps. Trust me, even when you have a global roaming account it does take some amount of cajoling quite often to get it to work.

 

[Andrew]

Remember, who ever crashed this plane didn't do it alone...

 

[railiner]

It is absolutely mind-boggling how many people seriously think that all GPS devices send their position information to a satellite!

Hence the argument that if there were Smartphones with GPS on them in the plane that was turned on, then the GPS satellite would know where the Smartphone was located and hence where the plane was.

Another misconception is that somehow if you have a cell phone that will automagically start working no matter which country you are in, or even in the middle of the ocean, only if you could get to a low enough altitude perhaps. Trust me, even when you have a global roaming account it does take some amount of cajoling quite often to get it to work.

Wonder what the chances were of someone on board having an Iridium phone....(global satellite coverage)....of course it would have to be not in "airplane mode" for detection.

But wonder if they checked to see if Iridium could possibly have some contact from anyone on board with an account.......All possibilites, no matter how unlikely, should be checked out in an event dragging on this long.....

 

[leemell]

To leemell ,That's just a figure of speech but I will give you one , try Palmyra Island .

That is not a cite, just and island name.

 

[Ryan]

Remember, who ever crashed this plane didn't do it alone...

I'm not sure why you say that, they certainly could have.
There's also the implicit assumption in there that the plane was a) crashed and b) crashed on purpose. Neither of them have been confirmed yet.

 

[Green Maned Lion]

To sum up our current unquestioned understanding of this situation.

1) there was/is a plane of Malaysian Air

2) it took off.

3) it dissappeared.

4) the Malaysian government either consists of peerless imbeciles or knows stuff it isn't talking about.

5) Crossover doesn't realize that admitting your wrong when you are makes you look better than arguing forever about inaccurate irrelevant nonsequitors about opinion vs fact.

 

[SarahZ]

To sum up our current unquestioned understanding of this situation.

1) there was/is a plane of Malaysian Air

2) it took off.

3) it dissappeared.

4) the Malaysian government either consists of peerless imbeciles or knows stuff it isn't talking about.

5) Crossover doesn't realize that admitting your wrong when you are makes you look better than arguing forever about inaccurate irrelevant nonsequitors about opinion vs fact.

Gold star for you!

 

[WhoozOn1st]

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

"NSA can track every email, but it can't find a plane" -- http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9247007/Ron_Miller_NSA_can_track_every_email_but_it_can_t_find_a_plane

"For all our brains and all our computers and all our data, an airplane can still just disappear without a trace for nine days and we can't find it. In fact, we have no bloody idea where it is. We are told after nine long days that there are 370 runways within the fuel capacity range of the airliner that could have accommodated landing a jet of this size."

 

[XHRTSP]

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

"NSA can track every email, but it can't find a plane" -- http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9247007/Ron_Miller_NSA_can_track_every_email_but_it_can_t_find_a_plane

"For all our brains and all our computers and all our data, an airplane can still just disappear without a trace for nine days and we can't find it. In fact, we have no bloody idea where it is. We are told after nine long days that there are 370 runways within the fuel capacity range of the airliner that could have accommodated landing a jet of this size."

Tracking every airborne commercial aircraft in the world is not really within the scope of the NSA. I think someone just has an axe to grind.

 

[MattW]

Here's another interesting theory that is frankly, workable. It sounds ok to me, but I'm not a pilot so I'll let those who know more than I do draw further conclusions: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

 

[Ryan]

Very, very interesting. Seems plausible.

Next question is "to what end"?

 

[XHRTSP]

Here's another interesting theory that is frankly, workable. It sounds ok to me, but I'm not a pilot so I'll let those who know more than I do draw further conclusions: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

Totally implausible. TCAS is tied to the transponder, if you turn it off, no TCAS display. At least that's every system I've worked with, maybe the 777 is different, but I don't believe that's going to be the case.

Second, yeah good luck setting up that kind of rendezvous. You need a lot of situation awareness, prior planning and coordination among the two crews, and 'smash' (over taking velocity) to execute a straight ahead rejoin. Unless Singapore 68 is in on it, good luck.

 

[WhoozOn1st]

Tracking every airborne commercial aircraft in the world is not really within the scope of the NSA. I think someone just has an axe to grind.

But tracking everybody's phone calls and e-mails IS!? Axe to grind or not, how do you come by your knowledge of particular facets of the NSA's operational scope? Perhaps you can share a document with us.

 

[XHRTSP]

But tracking everybody's phone calls and e-mails IS!? Axe to grind or not, how do you come by your knowledge of particular facets of the NSA's operational scope? Perhaps you can share a document with us.[/center]

The NSA does not have infinite personnel with an infinite budget that can do infinite things. If you want to complain about what they have been doing in relation to privacy violations, fine, I'm probably 100% with you on that, but it's not at all relevant to this thread.

break break

If anyone from the NSA is reading this thread (bomb, jihad), which I now know you are, no I don't want you tracking my airplane.

 

[railiner]

break break

If anyone from the NSA is reading this thread (bomb, jihad), which I now know you are, no I don't want you tracking my airplane.

:giggle:

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Still don't know what the heck happened to that frigging plane huh? Nothing like this has happened in years! That 777 seems to have vanished into this air. Amelia Earhart II, with a plane that's about 20 times bigger.

 

[SarahZ]

I saw a thing on the news today in which they compared it to looking for a postage stamp in Central Park, except instead of having a long line of volunteers walking across every square inch hand-in-hand, you have the added complication of most of Central Park being underwater.

I really feel for the families. It would be hard enough for me to accept that my loved one had died. I think it would be even harder to have that tiny glitter of hope that they're out there, alive somewhere, but I may never know. I can't even begin to wrap my head around that.

 

[afigg]

Here's another interesting theory that is frankly, workable. It sounds ok to me, but I'm not a pilot so I'll let those who know more than I do draw further conclusions: http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

Totally implausible. TCAS is tied to the transponder, if you turn it off, no TCAS display. At least that's every system I've worked with, maybe the 777 is different, but I don't believe that's going to be the case.

Second, yeah good luck setting up that kind of rendezvous. You need a lot of situation awareness, prior planning and coordination among the two crews, and 'smash' (over taking velocity) to execute a straight ahead rejoin. Unless Singapore 68 is in on it, good luck.

I agree. Pulling in behind the other plane would be very difficult to do with or without cooperation and coordination from the lead airplane. These are commercial airliners, each with a large radar cross section, not military fighter aircraft. Maintaining a close enough separation not to be periodically detected as a 2nd track by the various surveillance and tracking radars over a long route would be quite challenging. Yes, aircraft can be bunched together to create a single track or fewer tracks than aircraft in the group, but this is done by military fighter aircraft and pilots which can train and learn to coordinate to fly in close formation.
I am not saying that puling in and maintaining a close distance behind another airliner is impossible, but it would require impeccable timing and a lot of luck. I could not see the close track holding up to examination of recorded radar data, if the countries it flew by or over saved the radar track and raw detection data files. BTW, MH 370 would not have to pull in behind another 777, any other large jumbo jet would do in this scenario.

 

[jis]

A good explanation of the two arcs for last position can be found in the following blog:

http://ogleearth.com/2014/03/flight-mh370-search-data-in-google-earth/

 

[jis]

An interesting theory which almost works IMHO....

http://www.airtrafficmanagement.net/2014/03/exclusive-mh370-crew-succumbed-to-fire-catastrophe/

It gets very close to running afoul of Occam's Razor by the time you have to assume that at the right moment the flight crew was incapacitated and then onwards the plane continued flying in some random direction, which very well could have been south south west, and finally ran out of fuel and crashed.

As far as theories go this one seems to be the best one that does not involve rogue pilots.