Well, back to the issue at hand, it is good to see something happening on the Gulf Coast! I will for the most part stay away from politics, but will take a shot, or two, at John Mica, and even praise him, a little!
I spent 32 years with a Class 1 railway, retired (early) in March 2017, and am now having fun and consulting! Long time Amtrak/VIA and predecessors rider continent wide, and somewhat familiar (in detail) with certain rail networks in the east, and in particular, the southeast!
I actually completed a round trip on the Sunset from Jacksonville to New Orleans (on a pair of office cars on the rear) in the late 1990's, and tried to make another one in 2005 from Orlando as a fare paying passenger. However, we got bused from Sanford, FL to NOLA due to a water main break washing out the "A" line near DeLand, FL. That last bus-rail trip was all the way to LAX and on to Seattle and occurred about 6 weeks before Katrina. NOLA to LAX we were 18 hours late (we were about 5 hours late out of NOLA), and LAX to Seattle, well, we never got there by rail. They turned the Coast Starlight at Portland and bused us to Seattle, arrived about 9 hours late. Still, apart from the two overnight bus rides, it was a fun trip, got to see Mt Shasta at high noon! UP was in "melt down" out west that summer (the second melt down after the UP-SP merger) in large part due to a former CSX manager (who shall not be named here) who was "running" UP's western operation that summer, into the ground.
So, I know a little about the Sunset route; here are some comments and observations on the Gulf Coast portion of the route:
1. As noted, good to see something happening
2. Service options - several years ago there was a study on restoring service NOLA to ORL that you have probably seen. As I recall three options were reviewed and posted at Amtrak's website.
- restoring the original tri-weekly Sunset
- extending the City of New Orleans, or part of it, to Orlando on a daily basis
- a separate stand alone daily day train
The Sunset restoration option had the old ongoing problems: tri-weekly service, and a 3 night transcon train over three major class 1 carriers (UP-BNSF-CSXT) that was never on time.
The best option in terms of total ridership and revenue, and most expensive to implement (equipment) was extending the City of New Orleans. This option not only restored service on a schedule similar to the Sunset but would also boost ridership on the CHI-NOLA portion as well on a train which has capacity. Last option I heard for this was for a coach, coach baggage, lounge and sleeper to continue past NOLA to ORL. But, it would be more expensive to run and restore, and who knows if there are enough cars. Orlando would be the destination because of maintaining Superliners at Sanford; also going all the way to Miami would have required another set of cars, or more.
The stand alone train day train studied (NOLA-ORL) would not have connected same day at NOLA with anything. Evidently a stand alone is what they are looking at doing, but over just part of the route. I think I saw they were looking at two round trips a day, and I expect it would have connections with the three other trains serving NOLA. Of course it does not get to Florida, but would serve what's left of the gulf coast casinos!
All three options had that 750 mile issue for funding (states have to cover the cost) even though the route was a part of the national network at one time. NOLA - JAX is 616 rail miles; NOLA-ORL is 758, NOLA-Sanford 739; they focused on the "new" route portion of 616 miles being what counts.
Warning - John Mica critique and praise follows: I suspect the 750 mile limit was picked (and certainly approved by) John Mica, Federal District 7 Representative (Central Florida / Sanford area) from 1993 to 2017, and was picked specifically with the Sunset restoration in mind. A complicated man, he often praised Amtrak's Auto Train service and showed up for the opening of the new terminal there a few years ago (the funding for which he voted against) and had no issue with securing over $1 billion in Federal funding for SunRail Commuter service. But he had his sights on the Sunset Limited every day he was in office - it was his poster child of everything wrong with Amtrak and he wanted the train gone (even though it served his district) and it would never come back while he was in DC and in the majority. He was always quick to call Amtrak a "Soviet Style" company, which he did for years, and harped on the subsidized "luxury meal service" (yes, we can thank him for the Silver Starve, idle $3+ million Viewliner II diners we all waited some 20-30 years to enjoy, the mandate to "break even on food" by 2020 and the possible demise of decent food service in general). On the plus side for John, at the end of April I rode the SunRail service he did support from Poinciana to DeLand and back. Excellent service, and ridership is picking up, passengers I talked to loved it. Service to Poinciana only started at the beginning of the year and the large park and ride lot there was 70% full; should be extended to Lakeland and Tampa.
OK - done with politics and back to the Gulf Coast route!
3. Florida problems - as you may know in order to restore passenger service on the Panhandle someone will have to pay for the installation of PTC between Baldwin, FL (just west of Jacksonville) to about Pensacola (not sure of the exact point, it could be as far west as Flomaton, AL or as close as Tallahassee). CSX just sold the line from just west of Baldwin to just east of Pensacola to a short line operator, RailUSA, LLC, to be known as the Florida Gulf and Atlantic Railroad (FGA). That adds a level of complication, but as a short line they might be able to get and exemption for PTC.
4. Equipment - given timing, your speculation on using Horizon cars displaced from the mid-west is probably right on the mark.
5. Other routes - I noticed the mention of the Capitol Limited - Silver Star route. Before the Capitol went Superliner there was for a while a through Chicago - Miami coach for a year or more using that connection. As for Chicago-Atlanta-Miami there was a study of that route in the 1990's and the cost of start up was over $400 million (about half for the equipment, half for track/signal/station work). I suspect that would be close to a $ 1 billion now. Point being, once you lose it, well, it's next to impossible to get it back. As for the old Floridian route, forget it.
Wrapping up, as for Alabama, well......perhaps they will see the light! For the past few years all of the communities from New Orleans to Jacksonville wanted to see restoration of service. Even Pensacola is for it now, they got rid of the mayor they had a few years ago who proclaimed he would not let any Amtrak train stop in his city because in his view it was a "communist company". That's for real, you just cannot make this up!
At least something is advancing.
Walter