Siemens Caltrans/IDOT Venture design, engineering, testing and delivery (2012-1Q 2024)

[Amfleeter]

I imagine CAF and perhaps Alstom and Siemens are feeling very good about getting orders to expand Amtrak's LD fleet - I have a feeling N-S has screwed the pooch.

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

In a written response to questions from The Wall Street Journal, Nippon Sharyo said the 88-foot-long Amtrak cars are “different from all of the existing railcars” it has built for U.S. customers. “Programs of this type are complex undertakings, have high thresholds for safety and technical challenges are not uncommon,” the company said.

I don't understand how hard it would have been to design the cars to meet the crush requirements in the first place - one would have thought they (they being the designers/engineers drafting the plans) would have done calculations and run modeling programs to determine whether or not the cars met that requirement.

 

[CSXfoamer1997]

In a written response to questions from The Wall Street Journal, Nippon Sharyo said the 88-foot-long Amtrak cars are “different from all of the existing railcars” it has built for U.S. customers. “Programs of this type are complex undertakings, have high thresholds for safety and technical challenges are not uncommon,” the company said.

I don't understand how hard it would have been to design the cars to meet the crush requirements in the first place - one would have thought they (they being the designers/engineers drafting the plans) would have done calculations and run modeling programs to determine whether or not the cars met that requirement.

Exactly! It shouldn't be too hard to make calculations how to design railcars to meet crush requirements.

How could they have done such a terrible job and delay the order?

 

[CCC1007]

In a written response to questions from The Wall Street Journal, Nippon Sharyo said the 88-foot-long Amtrak cars are “different from all of the existing railcars” it has built for U.S. customers. “Programs of this type are complex undertakings, have high thresholds for safety and technical challenges are not uncommon,” the company said.

I don't understand how hard it would have been to design the cars to meet the crush requirements in the first place - one would have thought they (they being the designers/engineers drafting the plans) would have done calculations and run modeling programs to determine whether or not the cars met that requirement.

Exactly! It shouldn't be too hard to make calculations how to design railcars to meet crush requirements.
How could they have done such a terrible job and delay the order?

Could it be that the models are imperfect?

 

[John Bredin]

Whether the FRA has a legal work-around the deadline for the bi-level stimulus funds, don't know. Pay N-S in advance with new full refund clauses if they don't deliver or something similar, if that is even possible.

My first thought is escrow: pay the stimulus funds over to a non-governmental third party like a bank so they're spent (no longer in a government account) for stimulus-deadline purposes with no need for a Congressional extension, and then the third party pays Nippon-Sharyo when the cars are satisfactory, whenever that is.

 

[MikefromCrete]

Since N-S recently completed 160-some Highliner II's for Metra Electric in an orderly manner with no public problems on record, as well as non-powered cars for Metra, DMU'S for Toronto and SMART as well other cars, I find it stunning that it has screwed up this order to this degree. I hope that a way can be found to keep the funding for these cars. Failure to obtain these cars would be terrible for the Midwest states, California and Amtrak.

This still doesn't make CAF look good, since the prototype sleeper, diner and baggage-dorm cars are still in Miami and haven't been sent out for testing.

Maybe Siemens and Alstrom can deliver working cars on schedule for any future orders.

 

[CCC1007]

Since N-S recently completed 160-some Highliner II's for Metra Electric in an orderly manner with no public problems on record, as well as non-powered cars for Metra, DMU'S for Toronto and SMART as well other cars, I find it stunning that it has screwed up this order to this degree. I hope that a way can be found to keep the funding for these cars. Failure to obtain these cars would be terrible for the Midwest states, California and Amtrak.

This still doesn't make CAF look good, since the prototype sleeper, diner and baggage-dorm cars are still in Miami and haven't been sent out for testing.

Maybe Siemens and Alstrom can deliver working cars on schedule for any future orders.

My understanding is that the crush test was only very small failure, as in 780000+ lbs sustained without problem. This tells me that either their modeling was just slightly wrong, or there might have been manufacturing errors or even deficiencies in the metal. It seems to me that there should have been only minor changes, not a complete redesign.

 

[MisterUptempo]

I don't mean to throw the discussion too far off course, but does this delay put the Talgos, currently sitting unused at Beech Grove, back into play at all?

If I understand the settlement between Talgo and the state of Wisconsin correctly, Wisconsin paid Talgo $9.7 million(in addition to the $40 million the state spent on the first two trainsets), and Talgo currently holds the title for the two trainsets. Talgo is paying to store the trains and keep them in shape to sell. If Talgo does sell the trainsets, it must kickback 30% of the sale price to Wisconsin, up to a maximum of $9.7 million.

I know the purpose of the Midwest pooled purchase of railcars and locomotives is to have a standardized fleet, and taking on the Talgos would be anathema to that strategy. But would Talgo be desperate enough to either sell the trainsets at a fire sale price, just to get them off the books, or agree to lease the trainsets, provided a maintenance contract was thrown in? Could the Midwest states apply its share of any penalty money Nippon-Sharyo may be required to pay for the bi-level delay against the purchase or lease of the Talgos?

I'd imagine IDOT and MDOT will both be anxious to showcase their new 110-mph corridors once they are ready, potentially wanting to add a frequency or two. MDOT is studying a coast-to-coast service, from Grand Rapids to Detroit as well as a train from Ann Arbor to Traverse City. IDOT still plans on service to the Quad Cities and possibly Rockford. That, of course, was one of the reasons for the new equipment purchases. Would either state consider the Talgos the best stopgap available at the moment?

 

[CCC1007]

I don't mean to throw the discussion too far off course, but does this delay put the Talgos, currently sitting unused at Beech Grove, back into play at all?

If I understand the settlement between Talgo and the state of Wisconsin correctly, Wisconsin paid Talgo $9.7 million(in addition to the $40 million the state spent on the first two trainsets), and Talgo currently holds the title for the two trainsets. Talgo is paying to store the trains and keep them in shape to sell. If Talgo does sell the trainsets, it must kickback 30% of the sale price to Wisconsin, up to a maximum of $9.7 million.

I know the purpose of the Midwest pooled purchase of railcars and locomotives is to have a standardized fleet, and taking on the Talgos would be anathema to that strategy. But would Talgo be desperate enough to either sell the trainsets at a fire sale price, just to get them off the books, or agree to lease the trainsets, provided a maintenance contract was thrown in? Could the Midwest states apply its share of any penalty money Nippon-Sharyo may be required to pay for the bi-level delay against the purchase or lease of the Talgos?

I'd imagine IDOT and MDOT will both be anxious to showcase their new 110-mph corridors once they are ready, potentially wanting to add a frequency or two. MDOT is studying a coast-to-coast service, from Grand Rapids to Detroit as well as a train from Ann Arbor to Traverse City. IDOT still plans on service to the Quad Cities and possibly Rockford. That, of course, was one of the reasons for the new equipment purchases. Would either state consider the Talgos the best stopgap available at the moment?

Last I heard California was looking at them for the lossan corridor group.

 

[PerRock]

I don't mean to throw the discussion too far off course, but does this delay put the Talgos, currently sitting unused at Beech Grove, back into play at all?

If I understand the settlement between Talgo and the state of Wisconsin correctly, Wisconsin paid Talgo $9.7 million(in addition to the $40 million the state spent on the first two trainsets), and Talgo currently holds the title for the two trainsets. Talgo is paying to store the trains and keep them in shape to sell. If Talgo does sell the trainsets, it must kickback 30% of the sale price to Wisconsin, up to a maximum of $9.7 million.

I know the purpose of the Midwest pooled purchase of railcars and locomotives is to have a standardized fleet, and taking on the Talgos would be anathema to that strategy. But would Talgo be desperate enough to either sell the trainsets at a fire sale price, just to get them off the books, or agree to lease the trainsets, provided a maintenance contract was thrown in? Could the Midwest states apply its share of any penalty money Nippon-Sharyo may be required to pay for the bi-level delay against the purchase or lease of the Talgos?

I'd imagine IDOT and MDOT will both be anxious to showcase their new 110-mph corridors once they are ready, potentially wanting to add a frequency or two. MDOT is studying a coast-to-coast service, from Grand Rapids to Detroit as well as a train from Ann Arbor to Traverse City. IDOT still plans on service to the Quad Cities and possibly Rockford. That, of course, was one of the reasons for the new equipment purchases. Would either state consider the Talgos the best stopgap available at the moment?

Last I heard California was looking at them for the lossan corridor group.

MDOT put out an RFP for the Talgos a few years ago; and were going to purchase them. However a state congressional report about the cost of the MiTrain commuter rail came out shortly after the RFP winner was selected and nothing has been done to buy the Talgos since. I inquired a few months ago with MDOT as to the status of the procurement & they claim to still be working on it.

peter

 

[seat38a]

They should just go back to Alstom and order more of the Surfliners if that is possible. Unlike the California Cars, I'm not aware of any issues with the Surfliner order. Is there anything preventing anyone from ordering current generation models if the manufacturer agrees to make them?

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

My understanding is that the crush test was only very small failure, as in 780000+ lbs sustained without problem. This tells me that either their modeling was just slightly wrong, or there might have been manufacturing errors or even deficiencies in the metal. It seems to me that there should have been only minor changes, not a complete redesign.

As stated early it was a multi-point failure. Per Amtrak Rep at the ESPA-NARP meeting. He also stated the whole project is in trouble with the federal funding deadline.

Sure don't know what a multi-point failure means, or what the definition of "trouble". However I be thinking it's not good.

 

[PVD]

Life unfortunately is not that simple. Whatever they buy with Fed money would have to comply with todays regulations and standards as agreed on by the States, the Feds, and the PRIAA committee. An RFP would be issued and competition would dictate the selection, not a single source purchase. Negotiated acquisitions and split awards are possible in some government projects (NY MTA does this often) but generally not with Fed money.

 

[PVD]

Therein lies the challenge of engineering. To make a small change can be a big problem. example: I need to make something a little stronger, well if I make it thicker, I might not hit a weight requirement, if I change the shape or fabrication method, I might add cost, a different material might be better, but the same applies ( or it might not be compatible with other metals touching it) It just isn't as easy as we would like to imagine it.

 

[WoodyinNYC]

I don't think people have quite realized how YUUUGE a problem this is.

Well over $1 Billion has been spent upgrading tracks St Louis-CHI, mostly between Alton and Joliet, to 110 mph condition. The new cars were supposed to handle the higher speed, accelerate faster, and look good doing it. And provide about 30% more seats per car, bi-levels over Horizons, as well as enuff new cars to allow adding more frequencies.

Taken together, the project was supposed to cut about an hour out of the schedule, increase capacity by at least 50%, and make the Lincoln Service the showpiece of 110-mph High(er) Speed Rail. Not so fast, after all.

No idea how much of the "about an hour" was going to come from the faster trains and how much from the track upgrades. We'll find out. They can try for faster trip times when the Chargers come online (too much to presume they will be on time?) to pull the well-used Horizons for two more years. But the trains won't look shiny, and the P.R. splash of launching new trains and much better service all at once, will be lost to various increments dribbling out, and to weaker claims, like "save about 45 minutes" or whatever.

Meanwhile Michigan has spent $500 or $600 million to acquire and upgrade the tracks Kalamazoo-Dearborn to 110 mph operation and take almost an hour out of the DET-CHI trip time. Same two-year delay for the Wolverines.

Missouri was smart enuff not to make any predictions of time saved, just vaguely 'better service'. It will take two more years to see what better service will mean on the River Runners.

I'd figured the Lincolns and the Wolverines would each add 200,000 passengers in their first high(er) speed year. Easy to make that estimate, because that would be bounce-back to the numbers before the construction started. And then more riders the next year and the new.

The direct benefit to Amtrak would have been small but real. Figure fast trains from St Louis, Springfield, and Bloomington/Normal bringing in more riders to connect in Chicago, and the same effect from more and faster trains from Michigan. ALL the LD trains and ALL the Midwest corridors were going to get a boost. The Texas Eagle, sharing the upgraded route, was going to get a little bit more of a boost. The Amtrak brand, both with prospective new customers and CongressCritters, was set to get a humongous boost.

Well, not for two more years than planned.

And further afield, trains that might have benefitted from a cascade of a dozen or so cars displaced by the new bi-levels, like the CONO extension by another name along the Gulf Coast, now face a two year delay, just when things were gaining momentum.

California was going to pay for part of its order with its own state funds, not all Stimulus. That state can easily spend that money on other on-going or authorized projects for a couple of years, and then come up with fresh money in two more years. But for the Midwest trains, even it's only the years lost, not to mention if they can't salvage that pile of Stimulus money, this loss is devastating.

With the Talgo cars and the Charger diesels, the Cascades will be the only train to show the full benefit of its Stimulus Billion, not that much to show for passenger rail some 8 or 10 years after the funds were approved.

 

[cirdan]

Well I guess California can pay for more wreaked Amtrak LD cars sitting around at Beach Grove to be fixed and then put into State Service. How many are sitting around?

And how many of those sitting around can still be feasibly repaired? I guess all the easy ones have alread been creamed off and fixed with parts taken off the others, making each further car to be fixed incrementally more expensive and difficult.

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

Well I guess California can pay for more wreaked Amtrak LD cars sitting around at Beach Grove to be fixed and then put into State Service. How many are sitting around?

And how many of those sitting around can still be feasibly repaired? I guess all the easy ones have alread been creamed off and fixed with parts taken off the others, making each further car to be fixed incrementally more expensive and difficult.

Just the opposite, the expense ones were fixed first, the easier one were to be done later. That was the plan for the extra federal funds.

As for California rebuilding more cars, I pretty sure Amtrak need ever one, and will not lease any out.

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

Aren't the existing Lincoln Service trains able to take advantage of the 110 speed? I know one of my friends took it and was excited to be going that quick when the first section opened.

 

[keelhauled]

Yes. Well, I think there is one short stretch of 110 track in service. The project seems unending. The Michigan trains though run at 110 from Kalamazoo west to Porter, Indiana, and hopefully from Kalamazoo east to Dearborn by the end of next summer. Current equipment doesn't limit speed, it limits capacity both on a single train and in terms of adding more frequencies, and, depending on how the cars are fitted out, the on board experience.

 

[PVD]

The scary part of any failure like this, enemies of rail funding will point to it as an excuse to slam any project no matter how different from this or worthwhile it may be.

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

Could it be that the models are imperfect?

That's a good point, but still somewhat concerning. Could the tests have been flawed?

I think having the single level Talgo consists would require longer platforms compared to superliners, no?

 

[jis]

I don't think people have quite realized how YUUUGE a problem this is.

Well over $1 Billion has been spent upgrading tracks St Louis-CHI, mostly between Alton and Joliet, to 110 mph condition. The new cars were supposed to handle the higher speed, accelerate faster, and look good doing it. And provide about 30% more seats per car, bi-levels over Horizons, as well as enuff new cars to allow adding more frequencies.

Taken together, the project was supposed to cut about an hour out of the schedule, increase capacity by at least 50%, and make the Lincoln Service the showpiece of 110-mph High(er) Speed Rail. Not so fast, after all.

What is there to prevent the current Horizon fleet from running at exactly the same speed as what the new bilevels would run at? Afterall we are just talking 110mph for midwest or 125mph in California, Well California might have to figure out how to get some more NJT single level cars and get them certified for 125mph, which should not be that hard, as a stop gap. As long as the Chargers are delivered on time, which looks likely now plus/minus a month or two at worst, I don;t see why the higher speed project would suffer at all. Passenger comfort will suffer yes, but not the speed component of it. The capacity increase will be harder to achieve on a per train basis.

My understanding is that the crush test was only very small failure, as in 780000+ lbs sustained without problem. This tells me that either their modeling was just slightly wrong, or there might have been manufacturing errors or even deficiencies in the metal. It seems to me that there should have been only minor changes, not a complete redesign.

As stated early it was a multi-point failure. Per Amtrak Rep at the ESPA-NARP meeting. He also stated the whole project is in trouble with the federal funding deadline.

Sure don't know what a multi-point failure means, or what the definition of "trouble". However I be thinking it's not good.

From what I have heard from people who were actually involved with the test, it was a catastrophic failure like they have never seen before.

I have also heard from reliable sources that the entire project for acquiring these cars is in jeopardy and might have to start from the beginning taking many more years. The phrase "it is almost certainly dead" was used. I have no idea what the actual future is of the order, but it is not at a very good place according to people that know.

Optimistically I'd imagine that they will be be able to extract at least those cars that they can pay for within the deadline from the time restricted funding (if any) and the cars that they can pay for from the non time restricted funds and whatever they can extract as penalty. But that will be far short of what the original order was for, and they will be several years behind schedule.

This must have been truly embarrassing while Siemens was passing the same test on their Viaggios with flying colors.

The core problem appears to be that N+S has no experience with building center sill-less cars. They have never built one before and apparently they don't quite know how to design one.

And of course the requirement for 100% built in USA requirement has been a significant problem too since the ancillary industries to deliver certain parts, and the skills required in the labor force apparently don't exist anymore, and have to be developed from ground up. CAF faced this problem too. Apparently Siemens somehow is able to work around this because of their much broader establishment in the US, and also using tried and tested designs from Europe instead of trying to design the whole thing here from ground up.

 

[west point]

Feel that the sub contractor supply problems are a red herring. How is it the auto manufacturers can get there required pars on a JIT or earlier ? Applies to both N-S and CAF.

 

[jis]

Feel that the sub contractor supply problems are a red herring. How is it the auto manufacturers can get there required pars on a JIT or earlier ? Applies to both N-S and CAF.

I am just reporting what I heard first hand from a manufacturers representative. Take it or leave it. Supply chains take time to develop. They just don't fall out of the sky exactly when you need them. This applies both to supply of ancillary parts and also of labor with appropriate skills. Automobile parts and their availability have exactly zero relevance to manufacture of railroad equipment.

If you don't believe me go and look up the trials and travails of Boeing in developing the supply chain for the 787 production line and how delayed and FUBAR-ed they were.

 

[Caesar La Rock]

Responding to jis' post about N-S, that's a bummer there. At least the Horizon equipment are capable of 110 or 125mph, but as mentioned because they are single level equipment, they will limit capacity to a degree until the bi-levels are delivered.