Isn't this basically a version of the old slumber coach service that is so fondly remembered by so many? I'm not so sure that it will be a failure. There could well be a market for a lower cost, no-frills sleeper service to Florida. The question that will be answered later today is how much lower cost.
While we love to blame Congress and "micromanaging," I fail to see how that is the case here. Micromanaging is telling someone not just what to do, but specifically how to do it. Congress simply told Amtrak to cut food and beverage losses. Amtrak is deciding how to do it, and this trial run is one of the ways. The reality is that a disproportionate amount of Amtrak's operating loss is due to food and beverage. The other costs like fuel, equipment maintenance, operating crews - the stuff that is most commonly associated with running trains has steadily been coming in line with revenue. Food and beverage, not so much, and the full service dining cars are responsible for the vast majority of that loss. Amtrak has set a goal of eliminating the food and beverage losses in five years. Something has to give to make that happen. With no change, we could literally reach the point where all the requested federal operating subsidy is for food and beverage, which is kind of nuts.
Now, having said that, this is not the way I would do it. Were I in charge of the Amtrak world, I would have taken the opposite route. I would administratively separate the sleeper service from Amtrak and operate it as a separate, for profit business unit. Amtrak would charge the sleeper unit for the avoided cost of operating the sleepers and other cars specific to the sleepers on the train. The cost of providing the sleeper service would be on the Sleeper BU. I would beef-up service and amenities, and to provide a true "first class" experience. Sleeper fares would be set based on the estimated cost, likely higher than today, but with the expectation that the on board experience, including food and beverage, would be similarly better and much more consistent. The expenses of the sleeper food and beverage operation would be rolled into the overall sleeper unit expenses, and then would be covered by the overall sleeper unit revenue. If that worked, and this separate sleeper business unit is shown to be profitable, then the cost of food and beverage for that service would not be an issue for the federal subsidy. It would simply be one of the costs of an otherwise profitable and fully separate operation.
Joe Boardman and company has decided to take the cheap it down route. It might work, but if it does it will be at the expense of what many of us consider to be the rail travel experience. Make no mistake, this is Amtrak's choice. Congress only said to cut food and beverage costs. Amtrak is deciding how, and it appears, this is how.