Speculation about remaining life of Superliners

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I might be ignorant of all the limiting factors, but the average lifespan of a passenger railcar in the US has been about 50 years. VIA has squeezed even more out of the all-stainless Budd cars they inherited from Canadian Pacific, albeit their operations are on a vastly smaller scale and some US commuter operators have also strung along for longer than 50 years. The time span from the entry into service of the Superliner Is (1980) plus 50 years takes us to 2030 so it seems reasonable to me to expect to be able to get them to hang on that long. Superliner IIs can be expected theoretically to be good until at least 2041. I expect to see Superliner I's being subject to increasing cannibalization, and perhaps some creative stopgaps such as Horizons and perhaps even Amfleets being pressed into long-distance service. Gardiner seems to have been communicating the expectation upper management has, whether it is realistic or not is something I'm not qualified to answer.
 
It is my understanding that the maintainability of Superliners is an order of magnitude better than Budd cars, so their life may be much greater than 50 years (although indeed the Superliner I trucks may be problematic). Tasks which take weeks on Budd cars take days on Superliners. I have always assumed the Superliners would go to Canada after Amtrak is done with them.

It would be really nice to do something about that grungy carpet on the walls of the Superliner II's if we need to live with them for 10 or more years. The Acelas were refurbished even though their replacement was only a few years away. I rode the Texas Eagle in Superliner II number 32112, which had the carpet replaced but no other renovation, and I think this is an easy fix.

I call this picture "Sunset on the Sunset Limited," even though I was technically on the Eagle. It shows the carpeting replaced with faux wood in sleeper 32112 (January, 2019):

IMG_7596.jpeg
 
No question more needs to be done to the SLs to make them aesthetically appealing as they age. The refresh to the seating and bedding was a decent start but that wall carpeting in the VLIIs is just plain gross. It can't be a ridiculously expensive or difficult task to replace that.
 
IMO there is too much emphasis on age of various equipment. How about mileage and exposure to harsh environments. Also, higher operating speeds where AM-1s operated more on NEC Many posters do not know that the Amfleet-2s as a group have much more mileage than the Amfleet-1s . Yet management keeps talking about retiring AM-1s.

It may be that retiring the Superliners is because Amtrak has all the expense of maintaining them. New equipment purchases have the builder maintaining much of the equipment needs instead of it being an Amtrak operating cost.
 
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Perhaps this has been covered in another thread, but since Amtrak is short of SL equipment, why do they continue to lease cars to the California trains? I have seen numerous coaches and SSLs on trains up and down the coast. Did they sign long-term leases? If not, why not get them back?
CA has 11 coaches and 1 sightseer car down from ~20 coaches, 4 coach baggage and 1 sightseer along with 20 horizons pre 2020. CA is has the busiest routes outside of the northeast.
There have been no additional new leases. The cars in the California fleet are long term leases from Amtrak, long enough to justify California paying for their repair from the back lot at Beech Grove. They are not about to give those up after paying to bring them back from dead.
CA might lease some more horzions and CA returned 1 superliner coach it rebuilt in 2021 after but yeah we paid to rebuild them when amtrak couldn't/wouldn't so we've got rights to them.
 
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It's sad. Back in the streamliner era, railroads could order from four major US carbuilders, and probably get delivery in just a couple of years, or even less...😞
Of course. The US manufacturing base for almost anything isn’t what it needs to be. I still like the idea of doing what the C&NW did with its intercity Bi Levels and what Amtrak did with the Horizons. Find something off the shelf that can be made comfortable for intercity service and can be delivered relatively quickly, and get them in service to augment the fleet. Put them where you can to free up cars. This could help bring Superliners back from lease to California and especially be used for axle count in the Midwest.
 
IMO there is too much emphasis on age of various equipment. How about mileage and exposure to harsh environments. Also, higher operating speeds where AM-1s operated more on NEC Many posters do not know that the Amfleet-2s as a group have much more mileage than the Amfleet-1s . Yet management keeps talking about retiring AM-1s.

It may be that retiring the Superliners is because Amtrak has all the expense of maintaining them. New equipment purchases have the builder maintaining much of the equipment needs instead of it being an Amtrak operating cost.
According to Stephen Gardner, 50 years is it. I don’t think anyone can argue that Amtrak cars haven’t been exposed to harsh environments and had the wheels rolled off of them.
 
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