The effect of the potential rail strike on Amtrak

[pennyk]

This thread is temporarily (hopefully permanently) locked. Off topic posts will either be moved or removed. If you have questions about a situation particular to you, please post that question in a relevant thread.

Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.

Update: Because of current interest and relevance, this thread is being reopened.

 

[Metra Electric Rider]

Do we still have a strike thread? Just heard that there is still a potential strike based on a few unions rejecting the offered deal.

(mods, please move to appropriate thread if we have one still)

 

[GDRRiley]

We've got a growing chance of one in early December
Which would really screw up UPS, USPS, Fedex and all others trying to move mail and packages for deliveries to homes.

 

[fillyjonk]

Welp, I may be spending Thanksgiving and Christmas at home, all alone, again, just like I did in 2020. But this time because of a strike instead of a virus.

I kind of hate everything right now. Once my mom's gone, I will have no one to spend the holidays with so I'm trying to maximize the holidays with her while I have her (it's too far to drive and I can't afford plane tickets now EVEN IF I could find one and get myself to the airport with scary city traffic)


I just read a story, that if a strike starts it will be on the 19th. I don't know if they mean at midnight (so, would the train I was on - I get on on the 18th - just stop dead somewhere in Arkansas) or if they mean late in the day. If a strike looks likely, I'm still going, I'll just figure out how to finish out my teaching semester virtually if it comes to that; time with family is more important to me and like I said, too far to drive and don't want to fly)

 

[Mystic River Dragon]

Welp, I may be spending Thanksgiving and Christmas at home, all alone, again, just like I did in 2020. But this time because of a strike instead of a virus.

I kind of hate everything right now. Once my mom's gone, I will have no one to spend the holidays with so I'm trying to maximize the holidays with her while I have her (it's too far to drive and I can't afford plane tickets now EVEN IF I could find one and get myself to the airport with scary city traffic)


I just read a story, that if a strike starts it will be on the 19th. I don't know if they mean at midnight (so, would the train I was on - I get on on the 18th - just stop dead somewhere in Arkansas) or if they mean late in the day. If a strike looks likely, I'm still going, I'll just figure out how to finish out my teaching semester virtually if it comes to that; time with family is more important to me and like I said, too far to drive and don't want to fly)

Lots of logistics—but you have your priorities right. Time with your mother is more important than anything else.

Wishing you a good travel solution and a lovely visit with your mother.

 

[Chatter163]

We've got a growing chance of one in early December
Which would really screw up UPS, USPS, Fedex and all others trying to move mail and packages for deliveries to homes.

While I agree that december is more likely, the sixty-day cooling off period is up on 16 November, so theoretically the strike could occur anytime after that.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/26/second-railroad-union-votes-down-deal-needed-to-avert-strike.html

 

[GDRRiley]

While I agree that december is more likely, the sixty-day cooling off period is up on 16 November, so theoretically the strike could occur anytime after that.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/26/second-railroad-union-votes-down-deal-needed-to-avert-strike.html

I was basing that off 1 of the unions remarks, it maybe able to be sooner

I just read a story, that if a strike starts it will be on the 19th. I don't know if they mean at midnight (so, would the train I was on - I get on on the 18th - just stop dead somewhere in Arkansas) or if they mean late in the day. If a strike looks likely, I'm still going, I'll just figure out how to finish out my teaching semester virtually if it comes to that; time with family is more important to me and like I said, too far to drive and don't want to fly)

Amtrak pre cancels them so people and equipment doesn't get stuck in random places

I highly doubt it will happen as this will destroy what little good will the class 1 have left with their shippers and its going to hurt the country far more than the 2B a day estimate

 

[IanDBeacon]

While I agree that december is more likely, the sixty-day cooling off period is up on 16 November, so theoretically the strike could occur anytime after that.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/26/second-railroad-union-votes-down-deal-needed-to-avert-strike.html

Actually November 19.

And that reminds me, I'm going out to Savannah, GA and West Palm Beach, FL Nov 13-17, perhaps I should book a backup flight from MIA-MCO just in case?

 

[zephyr17]

I arrive home from my NYP-EVR trip on November 15th, so I should be beating any cancellations.

 

[Chatter163]

Actually November 19.

And that reminds me, I'm going out to Savannah, GA and West Palm Beach, FL Nov 13-17, perhaps I should book a backup flight from MIA-MCO just in case?

I’m guessing that it won’t be until after Thanksgiving. I’ve had tickets on the Crescent for months.

 

[BlackDiamond]

I guess I'm having trouble understanding why railroad management has chosen this particular hill to die on. It seems some concessions on time off for employees would have gained them a lot of goodwill as well as avoiding what could be a catastrophic hot on our economy.

 

[MARC Rider]

I guess I'm having trouble understanding why railroad management has chosen this particular hill to die on. It seems some concessions on time off for employees would have gained them a lot of goodwill as well as avoiding what could be a catastrophic hot on our economy.

Obviously, management think's it's not going to be the one who "dies on the hill," they think they can blame this on "selfish" unions. And over the past 40 years or so, labor has been getting weaker and weaker, so perhaps the American people will also end up blaming labor on whatever economic disaster might emerge from this. Anyway, I don't think the class I railroads really care about "goodwill," they have a monopoly after all, and there is a subset of powerful people and interests who don't really care about being loved -- what they care about is being feared.

 

[BlackDiamond]

Trains mag article that says strike is inevitable

Trains article

 

[tricia]

Trains mag article that says strike is inevitable

Trains article

But at least not until sometime in December, according to the article: "A strike isn’t imminent. The status quo period for BMWED will expire on Nov. 19 and for BRS on Dec. 4, according to the Railway Labor Conference. If the operating craft agreements fail to ratify when the votes are counted on Nov. 21, they have a status quo period extension that would run into December."

 

[Old MM]

That article is an eye opener. Appreciate it being shared here. Have not seen much of anything in the way of news coverage.
It sounds like a continuation of the earlier conversation - that the stalemate is not about salary anymore, it's the QOL issues with not having paid sick time. Rank and file membership may have reached their limit regardless of what agreement was reached earlier, especially if the key issues were only postponed and not addressed. The RRs are willing to absorb a salary bump but they'll do anything, it seems, to avoid hiring enough people to cover paid time off. Clearly, people are expensive, and again, no matter how much profit they rake in, the wealthy are never contented to have less of it. Thus, they have no moral problems abusing the humans who are left - it's cheaper to force them to submit. I wonder if they're still making the trains longer and longer, too.

 

[joelkfla]

Anyway, I don't think the class I railroads really care about "goodwill," they have a monopoly after all, and there is a subset of powerful people and interests who don't really care about being loved -- what they care about is being feared.

That was quuite clear in the FRA hearings on freight railroad problems earlier this year. Except what they care most about is short-term profits.

 

[jpakala]

Congress from what I understand will prevent a stoppage disaster. As with the situation last month the government may wait longer than it should, which can mean Amtrak must hold off on saying trains for sure will be running.

 

[MARC Rider]

Congress from what I understand will prevent a stoppage disaster. As with the situation last month the government may wait longer than it should, which can mean Amtrak must hold off on saying trains for sure will be running.

Amtrak has to cancel the trains in advance so that crew, passengers, and equipment aren't stuck in the middle of nowhere. For a train with a 3-day run, that means they need to cancel them days in advance. Even if the two sides come to an agreement or Congress imposes a settlement, it may well happen at the last minute, long after the Amtrak trains need to be off the road.

One question, not mentioned so far, is if there's a strike, will Amtrak lay off employees? And if they do that, will that exacerbate the staffing shortages they already have once the strike is over.

 

[joelkfla]

Amtrak has to cancel the trains in advance so that crew, passengers, and equipment aren't stuck in the middle of nowhere. For a train with a 3-day run, that means they need to cancel them days in advance. Even if the two sides come to an agreement or Congress imposes a settlement, it may well happen at the last minute, long after the Amtrak trains need to be off the road.

One question, not mentioned so far, is if there's a strike, will Amtrak lay off employees? And if they do that, will that exacerbate the staffing shortages they already have once the strike is over.

If there is a strike, it would be nice if Amtrak could continue repairing and inspecting its rolling stock.

Are Amtrak's shop workers in the same union as the freights'? Would they also go out? Would the freight unions set up picket lines at Amtrak shops?

 

[zephyr17]

If there is a strike, it would be nice if Amtrak could continue repairing and inspecting its rolling stock.

Are Amtrak's shop workers in the same union as the freights'? Would they also go out? Would the freight unions set up picket lines at Amtrak shops?

Amtrak isn't going to be struck. Since it isn't the target of a strike, if the unions call a strike against the freight railroads, union members will still report to work at Amtrak even when in the same Union. That is why Amtrak could maintain service in the NEC and I know the T&E crews are in the same union.

The exception will be in cases the freight railroads and Amtrak share the same facility. In that case, Amtrak union members will honor the picket line. However, I think all Amtrak shops are exclusively Amtrak facilities. The unions shouldn't set up a picket line at a company not being struck.

 

[Trogdor]

Congress from what I understand will prevent a stoppage disaster. As with the situation last month the government may wait longer than it should, which can mean Amtrak must hold off on saying trains for sure will be running.

I’m curious how anyone can be particularly confident of what congress will do, if it isn’t something they’ve already voted on.

 

[zephyr17]

Congress from what I understand will prevent a stoppage disaster. As with the situation last month the government may wait longer than it should, which can mean Amtrak must hold off on saying trains for sure will be running.

It has to have 60 votes in the Senate to break a filibuster. That is by no means guaranteed in today's political environment, despite the ramifications of a strike.

The government did not take any action itself the last time. The NRLB mediated talks between the parties and pressure was brought by elected officials, but not an action like enforcing a settlement.

Congress has the power to force a settlement. Whether they will be able to under current political conditions is another question entirely.

 

[John819]

The NLRB (National Labor Relations Board) has nothing to do with labor relations on railroads and airlines. The NMB (National Mediation Board) handles these entities.

As far as Congress imposing a settlement, that would require either the Democrats (pro labor) or the Republicans (pro management) to give in on the substantive terms. What would be more likely (and possible) would be for Congress to create a panel with the power to dictate terms of a new contract. However, as any strike in December would occur after the Christmas shipments to stores had occurred, it is not beyond imagination that Congress would allow a strike to run until the next Congress takes office in 2023, when the lack of shipments of coal to power plants and food would create critical shortages.

 

[joelkfla]

However, as any strike in December would occur after the Christmas shipments to stores had occurred, it is not beyond imagination that Congress would allow a strike to run until the next Congress takes office in 2023, when the lack of shipments of coal to power plants and food would create critical shortages.

It's not just coal & food. As I learned watching the FRA freight hearings, municipal water treatment plants rely heavily on the freights for delivery of chemicals essential to creating safe drinking water.

 

[fengshui]

There are a lot of unknowns with a possible December stoppage. It's post election and post holiday-shopping, so the impact is slightly reduced. It's during the holidays, so some rail shippers might be more willing to accept delivery delays with factories running shorter/reduced shifts. It's a lame-duck session, so congress may be more willing to make unpopular choices (whether that's allowing the strike to happen, or forcing through a deal.) Hard to say what the ultimate outcome will be.

I have holiday train travel planned, so I'm really hoping that my trip is still on, but I'm very happy I have fully-refundable Southwest tickets in hand, in case the train is canceled.