Tracking FY 2024-25 Ridership and Finances

[Septa9739]

I figured I’d start a new thread for a new fiscal year. Fiscal 2024 looks like it will be marked by a transition from ridership recovery to ridership growth. This has already been seen in pockets of the country, but may become a national trend this year. Given the number of fully recovered routes, I’m going to switch from listing a hall of fame to a hall of shame, that is lagging routes, due to space.

The following routes are between 95%-100% of October 2019 ridership

1. Silver Meteor 95% (24,800 to 23,500)
2. Empire Builder 98% (30,500 to 30,000)

The following are less

1. Acela 85% (351,700-299,400)
2. Keystone 75% (145,300-107,800)
3. Hiawatha 83% (73,300-60,600)
4. IL Zephyr 81% (14,900-12,100)
5. PacSurf 68% (238-500-162,100)
6. Capitol Corridor 73% (165,500-92,000)
7. San Joaquin 93% (82,200-76,800)
8. Adirondack 81% (11,300-9,100)
9. Cardinal 87% (9,900-8,700) Passenger miles is similarly declining, maybe competition CVS-NYP isn’t being replaced.
10. Capitol Limited 64% (16,600-10,600) Worst in nation, worse than last year
11. California Zephyr 91% (29,300-26,700)
12. Southwest Chief 92% (25,100-23,100)
13. Coast Starlight 92% (32,000-29,500) worse than last year

The following trains have fully recovery from COVID, but a decline from last year

1. Ethan Allen (7,800-7,500) I don’t expect a problem, people rode it for novelty last year
2. Pere Marquette (7,700-7,100) 10 per train, not huge but not small either.
3. LSL (34,600-33,100) An extra day of cancellation makes up for about 1,000, still troubling
4. Auto Train (22,400-20,000) Explosive Growth wearing off?

All in all the system looks a lot healthier than it did a year ago. Even the laggard lines largely show improvement. Acela and Keystone were once in the 60’s. Capitol Corridor was at 48%. Long distance still isn’t lovely, but there is definite improvement. The Adirondack is operating! There are reasons to hope. Regionals are at 122% of October 2019 ridership, and more over last year. Better yield management may be helping. Illini/Saluki is up 25%, likely in no small part due to the 7 Superliners rule. The Lincoln Service found 13,000 riders more than last year to push from being a laggard to a leader. Virginia as a whole is up 23% from LAST YEAR, and 35% prexCOVID. NC isn’t quite growing so fast, but they’re getting there. The MO River Runner is up 25% from 2019. My guess is the Ann Rutledge service is giving a boost. The Star, CONO, Eagle, Palmetto Crescent, and Auto Train are all at least 110% of pre-COVID.

The financials are less pretty. Amtrak lost more money than last year and more than planned, at a less than prime moment. The was largely driven due to less than hoped for fare revenue (I.e. Somebody either figured out that sleepers aren’t work several thousand dollars, or that the NER is a better service than the Acela.

 

[BlackDiamond]

I wonder if the lack of equipment had constrained ridership on trains such as the Capitol Limited.

 

[Palmland]

Interesting analysis. I'm surprised that most of the LD trains' ridership is greater than AutoTrain. Yet, AutoTrain regularly runs with 7-9 sleepers and at least 3 coaches. I guess the difference is the number of passengers boarding at intermediate stops on other LD trains. And, AutoTrain regularly is near the top of trains that are close to covering their operating costs. I suspect that difference is the much greater percentage of sleeper (higher revenue) passengers than coach as well as the revenue generated from a couple hundred autos at $250+/- per vehicle.

 

[Septa9739]

You’re right. the difference is intermediate passengers. Only the three two night sleepers carry more passenger miles than the Auto Train. I think only the Southwest Chief comes close to the average length of trip of the Auto Train, but I haven’t looked at that in awhile. The other factor is that the transcons generate ridership and miles 24 hours a day for 2 days, while the Auto Train only really does for about 10 hours daily. There really is no question the Auto Train is the strongest long distance service.

 

[moselman66]

You’re right. the difference is intermediate passengers. Only the three two night sleepers carry more passenger miles than the Auto Train. I think only the Southwest Chief comes close to the average length of trip of the Auto Train, but I haven’t looked at that in awhile. The other factor is that the transcons generate ridership and miles 24 hours a day for 2 days, while the Auto Train only really does for about 10 hours daily. There really is no question the Auto Train is the strongest long distance service.

On the cost side I'd think that Auto Train is likely comparably cheap to operate with only two stations and an intermediate servicing stop. How Amtrak allocates cost can be a perpetual point of debate, but I would think pretty much any method would far favor this sort of operation over a conventional LD train.

 

[Eric in East County]

I wonder if the lack of equipment had constrained ridership on trains such as the Capitol Limited.

I agree with this totally. IMHO there are plenty of people out there who would be willing to pay high prices for sleeping car bedrooms and roomettes if these accommodations were available without having to reserve them 6 months or more in advance to be sure of obtaining them for the travel dates wanted. The number of sleeping cars in a LD train's consist on any given day should be determined by the demand for bedrooms and roomettes on that particular day.

 

[railiner]

If I read that post correctly, the Lakeshore Ltd, carried the most in the compared period ?

 

[Septa9739]

The LSL consistently tops the list for ridership between the East and Chicago. That said, a daily Cardinal with three coaches would be very competitive. The Capitol has always been behind. It’s the most effective route, has the largest consist by far, and serves a dense enough corridor that a Coach seat can turn over 3 times. It usually runs neck and neck with the Palmetto, and, lately due to Superliner shortages, the Empire Builder and Coast Starlight, which once had far greater ridership.

 

[rs9]

For the Lake Shore Limited, I think part of its decline may be the gradual settling of airfares from post-COVID peaks. My most frequent LSL trip is CHI-ROC. Airfares were frequently $400+ for a while but have settled into the $250-300 range.

 

[TransitTyrant]

I figured I’d start a new thread for a new fiscal year. Fiscal 2024 looks like it will be marked by a transition from ridership recovery to ridership growth. This has already been seen in pockets of the country, but may become a national trend this year. Given the number of fully recovered routes, I’m going to switch from listing a hall of fame to a hall of shame, that is lagging routes, due to space.

The following routes are between 95%-100% of October 2019 ridership

1. Silver Meteor 95% (24,800 to 23,500)
2. Empire Builder 98% (30,500 to 30,000)

The following are less

1. Acela 85% (351,700-299,400)
2. Keystone 75% (145,300-107,800)
3. Hiawatha 83% (73,300-60,600)
4. IL Zephyr 81% (14,900-12,100)
5. PacSurf 68% (238-500-162,100)
6. Capitol Corridor 73% (165,500-92,000)
7. San Joaquin 93% (82,200-76,800)
8. Adirondack 81% (11,300-9,100)
9. Cardinal 87% (9,900-8,700) Passenger miles is similarly declining, maybe competition CVS-NYP isn’t being replaced.
10. Capitol Limited 64% (16,600-10,600) Worst in nation, worse than last year
11. California Zephyr 91% (29,300-26,700)
12. Southwest Chief 92% (25,100-23,100)
13. Coast Starlight 92% (32,000-29,500) worse than last year

The following trains have fully recovery from COVID, but a decline from last year

1. Ethan Allen (7,800-7,500) I don’t expect a problem, people rode it for novelty last year
2. Pere Marquette (7,700-7,100) 10 per train, not huge but not small either.
3. LSL (34,600-33,100) An extra day of cancellation makes up for about 1,000, still troubling
4. Auto Train (22,400-20,000) Explosive Growth wearing off?

All in all the system looks a lot healthier than it did a year ago. Even the laggard lines largely show improvement. Acela and Keystone were once in the 60’s. Capitol Corridor was at 48%. Long distance still isn’t lovely, but there is definite improvement. The Adirondack is operating! There are reasons to hope. Regionals are at 122% of October 2019 ridership, and more over last year. Better yield management may be helping. Illini/Saluki is up 25%, likely in no small part due to the 7 Superliners rule. The Lincoln Service found 13,000 riders more than last year to push from being a laggard to a leader. Virginia as a whole is up 23% from LAST YEAR, and 35% prexCOVID. NC isn’t quite growing so fast, but they’re getting there. The MO River Runner is up 25% from 2019. My guess is the Ann Rutledge service is giving a boost. The Star, CONO, Eagle, Palmetto Crescent, and Auto Train are all at least 110% of pre-COVID.

The financials are less pretty. Amtrak lost more money than last year and more than planned, at a less than prime moment. The was largely driven due to less than hoped for fare revenue (I.e. Somebody either figured out that sleepers aren’t work several thousand dollars, or that the NER is a better service than the Acela.

A quick correction but Lincoln Service ridership jumped by 47,124 riders.

 

[Septa9739]

39,900-51,900 from 23-24 looks like 12,000 by my data. I will grant a typo, but I’m curious what data you used to get that.

 

[TransitTyrant]

39,900-51,900 from 23-24 looks like 12,000 by my data. I will grant a typo, but I’m curious what data you used to get that.

My mistake, I read that as you were comparing 22-23 ridership not comparing 23-24.

 

[Bostontoallpoints]

On the cost side I'd think that Auto Train is likely comparably cheap to operate with only two stations and an intermediate servicing stop. How Amtrak allocates cost can be a perpetual point of debate, but I would think pretty much any method would far favor this sort of operation over a conventional LD train.

So the Auto Train actually has the fourth highest operating expense at $8.8 million of all long distance trains. Only the Empire Builder, California Zephyr and the Southwest Chief had higher operating costs at $10.1, $10.4 and $9.9 million respectively. The Auto Train has the highest gross ticket revenues at $9.4 million. The next closest long distance train for gross ticket revenues is the Empire Builder at $5.1 million, almost half. Looking at all the numbers it is apparent that the Auto Train makes money due to revenue from moving freight (autos). Look at the other silver trains, Meteor and Star. They both have ticket revenues of $3.1 and $2.9 million respectively, almost 1/3 of the Auto-Train and yet they have way more chances to pick-up revenue paying customers along their routes. In fact the Auto Train carried only 2 million passengers, while the Star carried 3.2 million and the Meteor carried 2.5 million passengers.

 

[Anderson]

So the Auto Train actually has the fourth highest operating expense at $8.8 million of all long distance trains. Only the Empire Builder, California Zephyr and the Southwest Chief had higher operating costs at $10.1, $10.4 and $9.9 million respectively. The Auto Train has the highest gross ticket revenues at $9.4 million. The next closest long distance train for gross ticket revenues is the Empire Builder at $5.1 million, almost half. Looking at all the numbers it is apparent that the Auto Train makes money due to revenue from moving freight (autos). Look at the other silver trains, Meteor and Star. They both have ticket revenues of $3.1 and $2.9 million respectively, almost 1/3 of the Auto-Train and yet they have way more chances to pick-up revenue paying customers along their routes. In fact the Auto Train carried only 2 million passengers, while the Star carried 3.2 million and the Meteor carried 2.5 million passengers.

Revenue-wise, the Auto Train has the car charges to buffer that on a per-passenger basis. But the train has also usually run with about six sleepers.

 

[Bostontoallpoints]

Revenue-wise, the Auto Train has the car charges to buffer that on a per-passenger basis. But the train has also usually run with about six sleepers.

So if the other Silver's had more sleeper cars they too could be profitable?

 

[Bostontoallpoints]

The other thing I find interesting is that Amtrak loses $17.7 million on state sponsored trains in total. Shouldn't there be an adjustment made, either ticket price increase or more state funding? To be honest the state sponsored routes should all be profitable to Amtrak. Amtrak is losing over $5 million alone on the Keystone Service.

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

The other thing I find interesting is that Amtrak loses $17.7 million on state sponsored trains in total. Shouldn't there be an adjustment made either ticket price increase or more state funding? To be honest the state sponsored routes should all be profitable to Amtrak. Amtrak is losing over $5 million alone on the Keystone Service.

Yes, but it’s not that simple.

NYS complains about random bills with no breakdown of why or for what. Just a total. Someday Amtrak accounting will be able to show what NYS is paying for. Just not yet.

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

So if the other Silver's had more sleeper cars they too could be profitable?

Not sure it that simple, but longer trains equals more revenue, and expensive. Before Covid there was limited information that would come out showing the single night trains were profitable. Smiling Joe Boardman flash a slide once that showed this. Additional things like snow removal from the Florida stations seem a bit of a stretch. Various charges for terminal service on the Superliner trains always seem odd.

We are really need better accounting. However that a political issues for Amtrak.

 

[JamesWhitcombRiley]

Revenue-wise, the Auto Train has the car charges to buffer that on a per-passenger basis. But the train has also usually run with about six sleepers.

I counted 9 sleepers on the northbound Auto Train on this morning's Ashland railcam, plus 3 lounge and/or diners, 4 coaches, 25 auto racks. High season, even if northbound, since they have to turn around? I recall 41 total is not usual, and 50 is the max, but never saw 50. The railcam people take a friendly wager each day.

 

[Bostontoallpoints]

Not sure it that simple, but longer trains equals more revenue, and expensive. Before Covid there was limited information that would come out showing the single night trains were profitable. Smiling Joe Boardman flash a slide once that showed this. Additional things like snow removal from the Florida stations seem a bit of a stretch. Various charges for terminal service on the Superliner trains always seem odd.

We are really need better accounting. However that a political issues for Amtrak.

It should be fairly simple with this data set for the silvers. There are three trains running on mostly the same tracks. 1 is non stop and carries auto freight. The other 2 travel a little longer but have multiple station stops. 1 is profitable the other 2 are not. Take the auto train and break down the revenue, coach, sleeper and autos. Now take the other silvers and break down their revenue. Is it the auto revenue or the additional sleepers? The auto train has higher operating expenses than the other silvers.

 

[Bostontoallpoints]

Yes, but it’s not that simple.

NYS complains about random bills with no breakdown of why or for what. Just a total. Someday Amtrak accounting will be able to show what NYS is paying for. Just not yet.

NYS is getting a service that is costing Amtrak almost $3 million a year. Am I naïve in thinking there is a signed contract that breakdown said costs and expenses?

 

[Anderson]

NYS is getting a service that is costing Amtrak almost $3 million a year. Am I naïve in thinking there is a signed contract that breakdown said costs and expenses?

The contract may specify those things, but it isn't absurd for the customer to want to make sure they're being billed correctly...

 

[Anderson]

So if the other Silver's had more sleeper cars they too could be profitable?

It's not quite that simple (e.g. more coaches could help), but essentially yes, especially for the Meteor.

 

[Septa9739]

Just to sum up re the Auto Train. I think its success can be attributed to multiple factors. It’s unique operating status as a mixed train helps, but the route hasn’t always made money. What really has worked is that the railroad made equipment available and applied successful yield management. Many of our trains could never make money because they simply are too short. The overhead of dispatch, T+E, MOW, access fees, stations, etc. cannot be spread across enough passengers to generate a profit on a possible average fare. I don’t know about being fully profitable, but many trains seem profitable on an avoidable cost basis and those numbers would be much improved if longer consists were available.

 

[Anderson]

I mean, there was a chart from a few years ago (2015, maybe?) that showed that the Meteor (then running with 3 sleepers and 5 coaches much of the time) was pretty much at break-even (it was a little short) and it implied that if a fourth sleeper got added, it would tip it over. Frankly, working to aggressively sell space that would turn over in Washington, DC might've bridged the gap (selling a carload of coach space at $60/head would kick out over $1m/yr, so adding a couple of coaches that would be pulled off at DC a la the Palmetto could've also patched the train over into the black, and that train also did quite a bit of business into VA as well since it's the last one of the night).

Another worthwhile note is that, for example, if you sold 5 $30 dinners to coach pax per trip in the diner, you'd add over $100k/yr to the gross of the route. Now, I don't know about the actual net cost of sourcing the food for that, but my point is that there are a lot of things Amtrak has done to run off revenue on those trains.