Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[jis]

Well, just because they have to agree on something and they have not gotten around to doing it yet, does not mean there is any significant roadblock necessarily. But given someone that is having a light day and is looking to make an exciting story, one can put whatever theory one wants to explain why an agreement has not been signed yet, something way juicer than say something like "the planned timeline calls for completing this task by the end of June", which is kind of boring.

 

[Ryan]

So I guess the story is really a bunch of media invented excitment?

Say it ain't so!!!

 

[Paulus]

A collision with a car? :unsure: Isn't that part of the route supposed to be grade separated anyway?

Although other posts have taken care of this specific claim, I would imagine it to be part of normal negotiations. Freaky stuff does happen and I can think of at least one car winding up on grade separated portions of Surfliner route in the past year (really want to say that there were two, in fact, but not sure).

 

[The Davy Crockett]

Wow, that seems like a pretty strong reaction by Ms. Maikisch. "The lady doth protest too much, methinks." wrote some old washed up dude named Shakespeare. :giggle:

And of course it is always wiser to take a government official at face value than a reporter. A good example of this would be a littile incident referred to as Watergate... If it hadn't been for those lying reporters... :huh:

If AAF was to be believed, wasn't this agreement was to have been inked last year? ^_^

Negotiations can be a delicate thing and I suspect "we the people" are being played kinda like a hockey puck.

 

[pennyk]

Wow, that seems like a pretty strong reaction by Ms. Maikisch. "The lady doth protest too much, methinks." wrote some old washed up dude named Shakespeare. :giggle:
And of course it is always wiser to take a government official at face value than a reporter. A good example of this would be a littile incident referred to as Watergate... If it hadn't been for those lying reporters... :huh:

If AAF was to be believed, wasn't this agreement was to have been inked last year? ^_^

Negotiations can be a delicate thing and I suspect "we the people" are being played kinda like a hockey puck.

I know the reporter who wrote the Orlando Sentinel article and he is an excellent reporter.

 

[chrsjrcj]

FWIW: Driving through Lake Worth and Lantana today, I noticed what looked like track ballast on the westside of the mainline stretching from the northend of the Hypuluxo siding, to at least Lantana road (past that, the tracks diverge from US 1 through downtown Lake Worth).

 

[Brian_tampa]

Here is the link to an interview the President of AAF gave to Metro Center Outlook tv show on the local Orlando public television station WUCF this past Friday:



Of interest: AAF will have a first class car, tiered pricing for different travel times, operate 6am to 10pm with hourly service, and he mentioned 9 car trains. Also he talked about investors in AAF.

I have read AAF's application they sent to FDOT last December (for the lease negotiations with the Beachline toll road) and it also mentioned a possible investment by the rolling stock builder and/or operator in AAF. It wasn't real clear on that but seemed to imply that.

Also the presentation at the EIS open houses being held now talk about completing the environmental reviews sometime next year and obtaining a record of decision from the FRA in about a year.

 

[Anderson]

Taking a guess, that sounds like sets of:
(1) First Class Car

(1) Food Service Car

(7) Coach Cars

As to the tiered pricing, I'm wondering if that's going to be a "standard" set of tiers (i.e. a set of peak times and a set of off-peak times) or if it will vary based on demand (i.e. what Amtrak tends to do).

The biggest surprise for me is the 10 PM slot in lieu of the 5 AM slot, because the latter would allow business travelers to get to either downtown ahead of 9 AM, while the former is likely to put folks at their destination close to 1 AM.

 

[jphjaxfl]

Taking a guess, that sounds like sets of1) First Class Car

(1) Food Service Car

(7) Coach Cars

As to the tiered pricing, I'm wondering if that's going to be a "standard" set of tiers (i.e. a set of peak times and a set of off-peak times) or if it will vary based on demand (i.e. what Amtrak tends to do).

The biggest surprise for me is the 10 PM slot in lieu of the 5 AM slot, because the latter would allow business travelers to get to either downtown ahead of 9 AM, while the former is likely to put folks at their destination close to 1 AM.

Since many of those riding the trains will be going to attractions in Orlando, I can see people wanting to get a late train back to Miami at 10PM. Also Miami is a late night city where local residence operate on Cuban time. Most people in Miami don't have dinner until 9PM so they would certainly prefer a 10PM departure to a 5AM departure which would not get many takers in that city.

 

[Anderson]

Charlie and I were talking, and I suspect you're right. You might also get slight differences between the NB and SB schedules, too...I could see a 5:30 AM working its way into the MIA end, for example (to allow for travel time downtown once you get to ORL). I could also see a later departure from ORL on weekends timed to coincide with X-amount-of-time-after-parks-close, for the simple fact that I suspect train/bus/park deals are going to become a sellable proposition (I'm not sure what load factor a train is going to need to be considered successful, but a full bus each to Universal and Disney is probably over 1/4 of a train sold right there).

There's precedent for this on the Acelas (WAS has a 0500 departure, NYP does not; the evening times also vary between NYP and WAS, too), not to mention (presuming these times tend to be on weekends/holidays) all over the NEC.

 

[jphjaxfl]

Charlie and I were talking, and I suspect you're right. You might also get slight differences between the NB and SB schedules, too...I could see a 5:30 AM working its way into the MIA end, for example (to allow for travel time downtown once you get to ORL). I could also see a later departure from ORL on weekends timed to coincide with X-amount-of-time-after-parks-close, for the simple fact that I suspect train/bus/park deals are going to become a sellable proposition (I'm not sure what load factor a train is going to need to be considered successful, but a full bus each to Universal and Disney is probably over 1/4 of a train sold right there).
There's precedent for this on the Acelas (WAS has a 0500 departure, NYP does not; the evening times also vary between NYP and WAS, too), not to mention (presuming these times tend to be on weekends/holidays) all over the NEC.

Charlie and I were talking, and I suspect you're right. You might also get slight differences between the NB and SB schedules, too...I could see a 5:30 AM working its way into the MIA end, for example (to allow for travel time downtown once you get to ORL). I could also see a later departure from ORL on weekends timed to coincide with X-amount-of-time-after-parks-close, for the simple fact that I suspect train/bus/park deals are going to become a sellable proposition (I'm not sure what load factor a train is going to need to be considered successful, but a full bus each to Universal and Disney is probably over 1/4 of a train sold right there).
There's precedent for this on the Acelas (WAS has a 0500 departure, NYP does not; the evening times also vary between NYP and WAS, too), not to mention (presuming these times tend to be on weekends/holidays) all over the NEC.

I think AAF will be successful. I have numerous European friends who like to fly into Miami and spend a few days in South Beach, then head up to Orlando. They can't believe there is only 1 direct train from Miami to Orlando. I don't think there will be any problem filling the trains up. I think the trains will have name too. ??Service.

 

[Anderson]

I really don't doubt that the service as a whole will be a success of some sort (even if there will likely be a need for better transit links in ORL between the airport and downtown for the business crowd), and I'm hopeful of the Tampa and Jacksonville extensions coming to pass. In my last post I was specifically thinking of odd-hour services.

 

[jphjaxfl]

I really don't doubt that the service as a whole will be a success of some sort (even if there will likely be a need for better transit links in ORL between the airport and downtown for the business crowd), and I'm hopeful of the Tampa and Jacksonville extensions coming to pass. In my last post I was specifically thinking of odd-hour services.

I really don't doubt that the service as a whole will be a success of some sort (even if there will likely be a need for better transit links in ORL between the airport and downtown for the business crowd), and I'm hopeful of the Tampa and Jacksonville extensions coming to pass. In my last post I was specifically thinking of odd-hour services.

As someone who has done business in Orlando, most meetings I have had have been in office parks outside of Orlando - not in the downtown area, so business travelers will likely need a rental car or a taxi and the airport is the place for both.

 

[Anderson]

I really don't doubt that the service as a whole will be a success of some sort (even if there will likely be a need for better transit links in ORL between the airport and downtown for the business crowd), and I'm hopeful of the Tampa and Jacksonville extensions coming to pass. In my last post I was specifically thinking of odd-hour services.

I really don't doubt that the service as a whole will be a success of some sort (even if there will likely be a need for better transit links in ORL between the airport and downtown for the business crowd), and I'm hopeful of the Tampa and Jacksonville extensions coming to pass. In my last post I was specifically thinking of odd-hour services.

As someone who has done business in Orlando, most meetings I have had have been in office parks outside of Orlando - not in the downtown area, so business travelers will likely need a rental car or a taxi and the airport is the place for both.

1) You're quoting me twice. Is that your way of saying "You can say that again!"?

2) Ok, that's a fair point. How bad is the airport taxi surcharge? Or is that "just" to the resort hotels?

 

[Brian_tampa]

I have seen blogs and other sources talk about the Deseret Ranch (Morman church owned) possibly wanting to change the route of AAF into the Orlando airport. Here is an article from the Orlando Sentinel tonight reporting on just that possibility. The ranch wants the state to require AAF to go through more impact studies before construction begins. The ranch claims this is for "holistic, long term planning" purposes. But as we know, here in Florida that means "how can I make money from it", especially if the one requesting it is a major landowner along the route.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-miami-train-ranch-fight-20130510,0,2645576.story

At least FDOT appears to be supportive of AAF and their present plans. We need to send our comments into the US DOT for the EIS public comment period ending Tuesday supporting the present proposed route along the Beachline. The AAF website has a link to the DOT contact email address.

 

[chrsjrcj]

And here is the presentation shown at the meetings. It looks like the EIS won't be completed until April 2014, but it also notes that the WPB-Miami Environmental Assessment has already been completed (which we know). It says the draft EIS will be completed in September, and AAF has said they plan to start construction at the end of the year. I wonder if once the draft EIS is out, they'll began construction on the southern portion?

I really wish I could've attended one of those meetings.

 

[Brian_tampa]

And here is the presentation shown at the meetings. It looks like the EIS won't be completed until April 2014, but it also notes that the WPB-Miami Environmental Assessment has already been completed (which we know). It says the draft EIS will be completed in September, and AAF has said they plan to start construction at the end of the year. I wonder if once the draft EIS is out, they'll began construction on the southern portion?
I really wish I could've attended one of those meetings.

Today AAF announced an additional meeting on May 29th in Ft. Lauderdale. Hopefully you can attend, I wish I could but living over here in Tampa makes it kind of hard to get there on a weekday. Unfortunately, due to travel for work I was unable to make it to the Orlando meeting. Let us know if you go and learn anything from the AAF representatives there.

http://www.allaboardflorida.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AAF-Fort-Lauderdale-Public-Scoping-Meeting-notification-final.pdf

 

[Brian_tampa]

I have seen blogs and other sources talk about the Deseret Ranch (Morman church owned) possibly wanting to change the route of AAF into the Orlando airport. Here is an article from the Orlando Sentinel tonight reporting on just that possibility. The ranch wants the state to require AAF to go through more impact studies before construction begins. The ranch claims this is for "holistic, long term planning" purposes. But as we know, here in Florida that means "how can I make money from it", especially if the one requesting it is a major landowner along the route. http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-miami-train-ranch-fight-20130510,0,2645576.story]http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-miami-train-ranch-fight-20130510,0,2645576.story[/url]At least FDOT appears to be supportive of AAF and their present plans. We need to send our comments into the US DOT for the EIS public comment period ending Tuesday supporting the present proposed route along the Beachline. The AAF website has a link to the DOT contact email address.

Just saw a good article in the Orlando Business Journal tonight regarding the Deseret Ranch's demands with regard to AAF. Here is a link to the letter they sent to FDOT:
http://assets.bizjournals.com/orlando/pdf/13.pdf

They basically want AAF to promise to reserve a future station for them; provide for freight service to any future development on their land; change the route to be on their property (and not on the better route alongside the Beachline); and allow for future commuter rail on the route to Cocoa from Orlando. I believe AAF is already planning on designing for future expansion and new interchanges on the Beachline - so that point should be mute. The Deseret Ranch is in my opinion asking for the world - all for their benefit under the guise of being concerned about long term planning. IMO they are looking for a way to make money off of AAF and try to pressure AAF into agreeing to their demands by holding them hostage with threats of delaying the project. The commuter train to Cocoa is a good idea and one that AAF would probably allow, but the other demands are over the top.

Edit: here is the link to the OBJ article:

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2013/05/deseret-ranches-exec-pens-letter-to.html

 

[afigg]

They basically want AAF to promise to reserve a future station for them; provide for freight service to any future development on their land; change the route to be on their property (and not on the better route alongside the Beachline); and allow for future commuter rail on the route to Cocoa from Orlando. I believe AAF is already planning on designing for future expansion and new interchanges on the Beachline - so that point should be mute. The Deseret Ranch is in my opinion asking for the world - all for their benefit under the guise of being concerned about long term planning.

Deseret Ranch is 300,000 acres. That is a lot of land. The owners obviously have big development plans for the property, which could include building a high density core town or city around SR 528 and a future passenger rail station. Not unreasonable to request that the design leave room for a 4 track corridor - 2 AAF, 2 for future commuter line and a space to build a station with platforms, maybe tracks for a freight yard, etc. They are not looking to stop or stall AAF, but to increase the value of their property.

Talk about a gift falling from the sky for the owners of Deseret Ranch. Florida had long term plans to build a rail line in the SR 528 corridor, but nothing might have happened with those plans for decades. Here comes AAF and the FEC looking to build a Miami to Orlando passenger line through their development property. Not decades from now, but by 2015. A deal will be made here. The Deseret Ranch backers might end up using their property as leverage for investing in AAF.

 

[Anderson]

Now that's an interesting possibility (Deseret Ranch investing in AAF). If you want a parallel to Flagler's activities, that's almost spot on, since adding an average of $1000/acre to their land value would increase Deseret Ranch's value by $300m.

I don't think it's unreasonable for DR to want an accessible stop to their property, particularly if they want to seriously develop part of it in the medium-term. The most reasonable deal, IMHO, would be to request that a four-track path be left (which, considering the commuter rail plans, seems like good planning practice anyway), a convenient station site or two be put into the plan (AAF would only want/need one, but a commuter rail operation might be well-served by a second stop as part of a development plan) and that DR would pay for any costly re-routing they want. The freight request, so long as it isn't overly intrusive to the passenger operations, is also eminently reasonable since I think the consensus is that the FEC isn't going to just be doing passenger ops with this.

One thing to remember: Requests like this are a negotiating position, not a final demand. Deseret Ranch is going to ask for the sun, moon, and stars even if all they want in the end are mining rights on Phobos. The deal is going to end up being more reasonable, probably involve Deseret Ranch investing in the project, and frankly even if they lose that money they still stand to make billions in the long run off of this.

 

[Brian_tampa]

I agree with afigg and Anderson that there will be a deal worked out between Deseret Ranches and AAF. My concern is that Deseret Ranches also wants to include the AAF project in a proposed pilot corridor study of a new transportation corridor between the Orlando airport and the southern space coast area (Melbourne perhaps?). If that were to happen, you can forget about AAF beginning construction anytime soon. Deseret Ranches would really like to see AAF routed through the middle of their southern properties - not along the Beachline tollroad. Having lived here in Florida for 15+ years, this state has precious little undeveloped land left. The proposed corridor would impact the headwaters of two major rivers along the central east coast of Florida. We do not need to see our water supply threatened even more than it has been damaged so far.

AAF is already working with the OOCEA to ensure that future expansion and interchanges can be accommodated. So I believe Anderson is correct, this is a negotiating position on the DR part. But for a new station to be planned for in the future for DR, then I would think that AAF would demand some compensation for that. The wildcard in all this is how strong of a legal position does the Deseret Ranches have in regards to the original contract (which of course only specified a highway, not railroad use) when they donated land 50 years ago to FDOT to build the Beachline tollroad?

Edit: according to the Lease Proposal document submitted by AAF back in December 2012, the new route is planned to accommodate 2 tracks only with only certain sections getting 2 tracks immediately and 2 short segments remaining single track at each end. Allowing for 4 tracks might not be possible due to the width of the ROW in places, unless of course the DR would donate more land.

Freight service option would open the project up to STB oversight - also causing more delays! I don't think anyone wants to go there right now at this point.

 

[Brian_tampa]

Interesting news out of Miami regarding a new convention center plus 58 story tall hotel next to AAF Miami station. It will be directly linked to the station.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/16/3401657_p2/massive-new-convention-center.html

From the Miami Herald article:

(The convention center plan was given additional impetus by Florida East Coasts plans to build a massive train station across the street for its planned All Aboard Florida rail service, which will connect downtown Miami to Orlando. The convention center and hotel would be linked directly to the train station and the Overtown Metrorail station through sky bridges, Nichols said.

Were tying all of it together. You will be able to flow through and around this (convention center) facility and right into the station, he said.)

Sounds like a good development right next door to AAF. Also planned is the Miami World Center which is a much bigger development nearby. That will include residential, commercial, and office development. Just imagine the potential traffic from just these projects alone!

http://www.miamiworldcenter.com/

Edit: in addition, a representative from AAF told me today that they were hopeful that they could announce the rolling stock provider soon. Also, that construction of infrastructure would begin at the end of the year on the south end between Miami and WPB. That would mean station construction and track work.

Edit#2: nice little promo video from developers of hotel/convention center. It shows a good view of how it is located in regards to AAF train station:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd-s-o9idR8&feature=youtube_gdata_player

 

[chrsjrcj]

^ That's great news Brian! Unfortunately, I cannot attend the Fort Lauderdale meeting because I have night classes.

I was already pretty excited for the Miami station already, but the convention center news is very exciting, especially when you include AAF's own plans for hotel and retail. Wow. All this development with Metrorail, Metromover, AAF, Tri-Rail (hopefully), all meeting at the current Government Center Metrorail station. Hopefully this can serve as a model for other cities.

A little OT: but there is a subscriber only article on the Palm Beach Post website that talks about Tri-Rail on the FEC. Basically, a memorandum of understanding was signed this week with the Palm Beach MPO, Broward MPO, Miami-Dade MPO, Southeast Florida Transportation Council, South Florida RTA, Florida Department of Transportation, South Florida Regional Planning Council, and Treasure Coast Regional Planning Council. This means next month they'll be able to begin negotiations with AAF, to plan for commuter rail in addition to AAF on the FEC Railway.

Very exciting times for Florida!

ETA: Only half up the agencies have voted on the memorandum of understanding. The Treasure Coast RPC votes tomorrow morning, and the rest voting before the end of May.

 

[Anderson]

Even if they don't make much above and beyond "actual expenses" on the Tri-Rail deal, I suspect that operation will be a winner for the FEC folks, since:
(1) It will allow them to disburse some AAF-related expenses onto the commuter rail account.

(2) They'll get track access fees from the commuter operations.

(3) The added traffic will enhance the value of dual-service (i.e. AAF+TriRail) stations.

(4) There may be additional station development opportunities which arise as a result of the commuter operations.

Also, on Deseret Ranch, here are my thoughts on their requests and what they are likely to actually get:
(1) A station/stop. Yes, they will get this, though it will likely be a "second phase" station that goes in with a Cocoa station.

(2) Additional tracks for commuter operations. This seems likely (even if it is "only" some limited third-track additions plus stations. My guess is you'll get a rather complicated deal, with DR offering up the land in exchange for the station(s) and some sort of stopping frequency guarantee, potentially plus investment in AAF.

(3) A re-route. Not likely. Moving the line between Orlando and Cocoa slightly is plausible, but nothing significant seems likely to happen beyond a tweak or two on this front.

(4) Freight service. Will happen, though not immediately. My guess is that they agree to work something out once the passenger operations are running so as not to screw up the project that's in process. Here, the worst case for DR would be that an extra track goes into place to act as a freight spur as part of a deal. FEC is going to want freight service on the line eventually, so this seems like a "gimme" in some form with details TBD.

Also of note: Any commuter operations along the line raise the possibility of extension(s) of service past Orlando Airport and into other areas of Orlando. This possibility is going to be interesting to see play out.

Finally: It seems like the FEC service is slowly moving towards some sort of mixed express-and-commuter operation: Tri-Rail on the southern end, possible Orlando-Cocoa service on the (current) northern end, and there have been proposals to run a JAX-St. Augustine service in the past that AAF is a plausible catalyst for. Something running Orlando-Tampa seems possible at some point as well. I'm wondering how far these networks might end up reaching out, given a decade or two (not to mention their potential additive value to any related development).

 

[Brian_tampa]

It was just confirmed to me this morning that the OOCEA Right of Way Committee unanimously approved the AAF Lease Agreement for constructing tracks along the Beachline Expressway in their monthly meeting yesterday. So the AAF project has passed another hurdle and it would appear that the Deseret Ranch issue has been put to rest. Good news indeed!