Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[Anderson]

IIRC, the whole affair is further owned by these guys:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fig&ql=1

Fortress Investment Group. It's a hedge fund-esque operation, so I'm guessing there's a lot of homework going on here. Also, who knows what (aside from FECR) might be owned by FIG in Florida...it's entirely possible that there's a complex set of transactions that are not entirely apparent at the present (i.e. FIG-run hedge funds owning real estate near station sites). It's also possible that this isn't the case; I have no idea which direction (above or below) the impetus is coming from. That said...from what I can tell, the project is rather competent.

On the OIA location for the terminal:
(1) SunRail is putting in a connection to the airport. This really should have been a no-brainer when SunRail started (for non-tourist trips, it's likely to be a slam dunk in terms of ridership...and for tourists not staying in the resort areas and/or locals going to the airport, it seems like a winner), but my understanding (possibly flawed) is that FEC and the Orlando folks are pushing ahead with it.

(2) OIA is where you get a rental car, can get a connection to Disney (for now), etc. In short, it's a good hub for traffic going both ways.
(3) It also makes sense in the context of wanting to go through Orlando to Tampa rather than just going to Orlando. Between the pre-existing HSR ROW plans and the ROW along the Beeline, there's not a bunch of expensive demolition work that'd be needed to knock a new line through town, nor a messy backup move into or out of the city (not to mention lost running time going in and out even if you could do a "quickie wye").

(4) In connection with (3), it seems likely that you're going to get the Tampa extension running by Disney...and if Disney follows through with their plans for the HSR line (i.e. to rework their shuttles and direct folks onto the train, likely just doing some limited baggage handling either at OIA or "just" at Disney "proper"), the ridership potential there (and indeed, potentially from Tampa as well) is substantial.

 

[Brian_tampa]

IIRC, the whole affair is further owned by these guys:http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fig&ql=1

Fortress Investment Group. It's a hedge fund-esque operation, so I'm guessing there's a lot of homework going on here. Also, who knows what (aside from FECR) might be owned by FIG in Florida...it's entirely possible that there's a complex set of transactions that are not entirely apparent at the present (i.e. FIG-run hedge funds owning real estate near station sites). It's also possible that this isn't the case; I have no idea which direction (above or below) the impetus is coming from. That said...from what I can tell, the project is rather competent.

On the OIA location for the terminal:

(1) SunRail is putting in a connection to the airport. This really should have been a no-brainer when SunRail started (for non-tourist trips, it's likely to be a slam dunk in terms of ridership...and for tourists not staying in the resort areas and/or locals going to the airport, it seems like a winner), but my understanding (possibly flawed) is that FEC and the Orlando folks are pushing ahead with it.

(2) OIA is where you get a rental car, can get a connection to Disney (for now), etc. In short, it's a good hub for traffic going both ways.

(3) It also makes sense in the context of wanting to go through Orlando to Tampa rather than just going to Orlando. Between the pre-existing HSR ROW plans and the ROW along the Beeline, there's not a bunch of expensive demolition work that'd be needed to knock a new line through town, nor a messy backup move into or out of the city (not to mention lost running time going in and out even if you could do a "quickie wye").

(4) In connection with (3), it seems likely that you're going to get the Tampa extension running by Disney...and if Disney follows through with their plans for the HSR line (i.e. to rework their shuttles and direct folks onto the train, likely just doing some limited baggage handling either at OIA or "just" at Disney "proper"), the ridership potential there (and indeed, potentially from Tampa as well) is substantial.

In point 4 you talked about potential ridership. Here is a table showing the projected intercity trips (all modes) between areas of Florida that was in the FDOT report labelled "2006 Florida Freight and Passenger Rail Plan" from page 5-22:

Table 5.9 Potential Travel Markets for Intercity Passenger Rail Service
Person-Trips (Millions)
Intercity Travel Markets
Existing Rail Corridor
to be Potentially Used
to Support Proposed
Markets Year 2000 Year 2020 Year 2040
Southeast Florida – Central Florida SFRC/CSXT 9.45 18.42 30.39
Southeast Florida – Tampa Bay SFRC/CSXT/I-4 4.85 8.54 14.09
Southeast Florida – Northeast Florida SFRC/FEC 1.30 2.28 3.77
Central Florida – Tampa Bay CSXT/I-4 14.16 29.16 48.12
Central Florida – Northeast Florida CSXT/I-4 3.54 7.32 12.08
Tampa Bay – Northeast Florida CSXT/I-4 1.55 2.91 4.80

Source: Florida Intercity Passenger Rail Vision Plan, Draft Executive Report, Florida Department of
Transportation, August 2006.

I know there was a later report (I can't seem to find it) that updated and expanded on this and that pretty much used the same passenger trip numbers. Also in the report on page 5-23 you will see that AAF is basically following what FDOT called the "Coastal Route" in their plans. It says to use the FECR, Beach Line, and I-4 ROW's. I am sure AAF is aware of all of these previous reports and studies - probably a big reason why they decided to research this project in the first place.

If you look at the numbers you will see that between South Florida and the combined TampaBay/Central Florida areas there are projected to be about 27 million trips in 2020. Tampa Bay to Orlando alone is also a big market too. I would use these numbers for relative comparison. But you can see how between Northeast Florida to everywhere else is about 12 million trips in 2020. This is a big reason why I personally think that AAF will work on connecting Tampa before Jacksonville, even though the cost to build will be higher. Orlando to Tampa is less than half the distance of Cocoa to Jacksonville, but requires new ROW (most likely will follow the exact same route as the proposed HSR) and tracks.

 

[user 1215]

Sunrail used to have a very detailed plan for light rail. I was under the impression that this was what was to be used for the connections. Right now, I don't see anything on the site indicating any sort of Sunrail connection to the airport by rail - looks more like just taking the Lynx #50 bus or something...

Again, getting a rental car, taking a cab, riding a bus all the above defeats the primary purpose of getting somewhere quickly only to be bogged down by inefficient travel.

Hurry up, Pay up, and wait.

 

[battalion51]

There's a few positives to going to OIA. As mentioned you've got the huge rental car facility, and if you work out something with ZipCars that'd be even better. Also, Disney operates their Magical Express bus service for its resort guests, so that connection can be made as well (and that one is free to the guest). Orlando isn't like New York where everyone is trying to get to Manhattan, the city is spread out. Some people are trying to get to the parks, some to downtown, some to suburbia. Terminate the service somewhere neutral that won't require a bunch of additional new infrastructure to be built up. But on the flip side, consider people traveling from Orlando. You've got a huge contingent of college students just up the road at UCF. If UCF doesn't start offering bus service to this, I'm sure someone is enterprising enough to figure it out. There are so many college kids these days that don't have cars, that I'm sure there will be a bunch of South Florida parents who will love this. Besides the college kids, most folks will want to park their cars somewhere, and there isn't much of a shortage of parking at an airport.

 

[Anderson]

Brian_tampa,

Those numbers often miss one key point...namely, that the rail system is unlikely to capture 100% of the "potential" market. This is especially true on shorter trips, which is what I've long suspected was going to be a hassle for the Orlampa project in a vacuum (not much time is actually saved, Orlando's not that far off, and neither city has a great transit system). Of your "potential" riders, a certain share are always going to drive...notice that the ridership estimates for phase two are nowhere near those market sizes. Central FL-Tampa is the largest of those potential markets...but it's also the one likely to see some of the lowest utilization on the list since it's almost too short for intercity rail (<90 miles, <90 minutes) plus the transit issue. Especially trying to get folks to pay "intercity" rates for travel seems a bit unlikely at the moment...though if congestion gets too bad, who knows.

As part of a larger system, and with SunRail in the mix, I think the operation has promise. I just do not buy the super-high ridership estimates that have flown around many times.

 

[Eric S]

Sunrail used to have a very detailed plan for light rail. I was under the impression that this was what was to be used for the connections. Right now, I don't see anything on the site indicating any sort of Sunrail connection to the airport by rail - looks more like just taking the Lynx #50 bus or something...

I've been wondering this too. Perhaps I've just missed it, but everytime I've looked at SunRail info online, I've only seen references to an airport connection as a possible, future, unplanned phase, or as being perhaps/maybe provided by another mode or operator altogether.

 

[Brian_tampa]

Brian_tampa,Those numbers often miss one key point...namely, that the rail system is unlikely to capture 100% of the "potential" market. This is especially true on shorter trips, which is what I've long suspected was going to be a hassle for the Orlampa project in a vacuum (not much time is actually saved, Orlando's not that far off, and neither city has a great transit system). Of your "potential" riders, a certain share are always going to drive...notice that the ridership estimates for phase two are nowhere near those market sizes. Central FL-Tampa is the largest of those potential markets...but it's also the one likely to see some of the lowest utilization on the list since it's almost too short for intercity rail (<90 miles, <90 minutes) plus the transit issue. Especially trying to get folks to pay "intercity" rates for travel seems a bit unlikely at the moment...though if congestion gets too bad, who knows.

As part of a larger system, and with SunRail in the mix, I think the operation has promise. I just do not buy the super-high ridership estimates that have flown around many times.

The ridership estimates are just that. I was using them to do a comparison of whether AAF would consider Jacksonville or Tampa for their first expansion. I do agree that any ridership study has been shown in the past to overestimate actual ridership numbers, especially in a state like Florida where public transit really is bad. That being said, I do believe that AAF has done their homework on the future potential routes. I just can't see where Jacksonville would be the next expansion target. Jacksonville to orlando is also a relatively short distance (145 miles vs 100 miles tampa bay to orlando) unlike Orlando or Tampa to south Florida. I would say the primary market will be Tampa bay/Orlando to S Florida. Jacksonville to S Florida really doesn't compare to the that market segment IMO. I am pretty much discounting the Tampa bay to Orlando market as that would be minimal as you suggest, just as I believe Jacksonville to Orlando will be as well. Maybe if Amtrak ever brings back frequent connections to the north of Jacksonville (say, to Atlanta or Charlotte perhaps as well as to traditional northeast cities?) then AAF will do well in Jacksonville. But then, AAF has stated they do not want anything to do with Amtrak. Time will tell.

 

[Anderson]

Brian_tampa,Those numbers often miss one key point...namely, that the rail system is unlikely to capture 100% of the "potential" market. This is especially true on shorter trips, which is what I've long suspected was going to be a hassle for the Orlampa project in a vacuum (not much time is actually saved, Orlando's not that far off, and neither city has a great transit system). Of your "potential" riders, a certain share are always going to drive...notice that the ridership estimates for phase two are nowhere near those market sizes. Central FL-Tampa is the largest of those potential markets...but it's also the one likely to see some of the lowest utilization on the list since it's almost too short for intercity rail (<90 miles, <90 minutes) plus the transit issue. Especially trying to get folks to pay "intercity" rates for travel seems a bit unlikely at the moment...though if congestion gets too bad, who knows.

As part of a larger system, and with SunRail in the mix, I think the operation has promise. I just do not buy the super-high ridership estimates that have flown around many times.

The ridership estimates are just that. I was using them to do a comparison of whether AAF would consider Jacksonville or Tampa for their first expansion. I do agree that any ridership study has been shown in the past to overestimate actual ridership numbers, especially in a state like Florida where public transit really is bad. That being said, I do believe that AAF has done their homework on the future potential routes. I just can't see where Jacksonville would be the next expansion target. Jacksonville to orlando is also a relatively short distance (145 miles vs 100 miles tampa bay to orlando) unlike Orlando or Tampa to south Florida. I would say the primary market will be Tampa bay/Orlando to S Florida. Jacksonville to S Florida really doesn't compare to the that market segment IMO. I am pretty much discounting the Tampa bay to Orlando market as that would be minimal as you suggest, just as I believe Jacksonville to Orlando will be as well. Maybe if Amtrak ever brings back frequent connections to the north of Jacksonville (say, to Atlanta or Charlotte perhaps as well as to traditional northeast cities?) then AAF will do well in Jacksonville. But then, AAF has stated they do not want anything to do with Amtrak. Time will tell.

AAF has been in a bit of a tangle because of wanting to avoid STB oversight and all that entails for their service. FEC has said they don't seem to mind Amtrak running a train or two down their tracks. If it's "just" an issue of interlining service (or not), that's not a big deal...it's always plausible that someone (maybe even Jacksonville's transit people) will get a bus between the stations and "patch" that connection; it's also possible that it'll be something private (a local coach operator would really only need one or two buses to run a "circulator" service) in the vein of the operation that ran between the stations in Chicago back in the 50s.

I don't see AAF not expanding into Jacksonville, even if it's infrequent service. JAX-ORL is a marginally better market than TPA-ORL (it is better if there's a connection to Disney, IMHO, since getting to Disney from JAX requires going through ORL), but JAX-MIA and JAX-TPA are non-trivial markets that're long-enough distance to attract traffic. Moreover, if service to JAX starts, there's every chance that the Jacksonville folks ask to start up a commuter run down towards St. Augustine (I know there have been intermittent studies on that front). And of course, there's also the point that each destination that's added makes each subsequent destination added incrementally better. Though it's not in the AAF plan, Naples is in the state's plan, and I cannot help but wonder if something might not happen there in the (rather long) long run.

 

[jphjaxfl]

Brian_tampa,

Those numbers often miss one key point...namely, that the rail system is unlikely to capture 100% of the "potential" market. This is especially true on shorter trips, which is what I've long suspected was going to be a hassle for the Orlampa project in a vacuum (not much time is actually saved, Orlando's not that far off, and neither city has a great transit system). Of your "potential" riders, a certain share are always going to drive...notice that the ridership estimates for phase two are nowhere near those market sizes. Central FL-Tampa is the largest of those potential markets...but it's also the one likely to see some of the lowest utilization on the list since it's almost too short for intercity rail (<90 miles, <90 minutes) plus the transit issue. Especially trying to get folks to pay "intercity" rates for travel seems a bit unlikely at the moment...though if congestion gets too bad, who knows.

As part of a larger system, and with SunRail in the mix, I think the operation has promise. I just do not buy the super-high ridership estimates that have flown around many times.

The ridership estimates are just that. I was using them to do a comparison of whether AAF would consider Jacksonville or Tampa for their first expansion. I do agree that any ridership study has been shown in the past to overestimate actual ridership numbers, especially in a state like Florida where public transit really is bad. That being said, I do believe that AAF has done their homework on the future potential routes. I just can't see where Jacksonville would be the next expansion target. Jacksonville to orlando is also a relatively short distance (145 miles vs 100 miles tampa bay to orlando) unlike Orlando or Tampa to south Florida. I would say the primary market will be Tampa bay/Orlando to S Florida. Jacksonville to S Florida really doesn't compare to the that market segment IMO. I am pretty much discounting the Tampa bay to Orlando market as that would be minimal as you suggest, just as I believe Jacksonville to Orlando will be as well. Maybe if Amtrak ever brings back frequent connections to the north of Jacksonville (say, to Atlanta or Charlotte perhaps as well as to traditional northeast cities?) then AAF will do well in Jacksonville. But then, AAF has stated they do not want anything to do with Amtrak. Time will tell.

AAF has been in a bit of a tangle because of wanting to avoid STB oversight and all that entails for their service. FEC has said they don't seem to mind Amtrak running a train or two down their tracks. If it's "just" an issue of interlining service (or not), that's not a big deal...it's always plausible that someone (maybe even Jacksonville's transit people) will get a bus between the stations and "patch" that connection; it's also possible that it'll be something private (a local coach operator would really only need one or two buses to run a "circulator" service) in the vein of the operation that ran between the stations in Chicago back in the 50s.

I don't see AAF not expanding into Jacksonville, even if it's infrequent service. JAX-ORL is a marginally better market than TPA-ORL (it is better if there's a connection to Disney, IMHO, since getting to Disney from JAX requires going through ORL), but JAX-MIA and JAX-TPA are non-trivial markets that're long-enough distance to attract traffic. Moreover, if service to JAX starts, there's every chance that the Jacksonville folks ask to start up a commuter run down towards St. Augustine (I know there have been intermittent studies on that front). And of course, there's also the point that each destination that's added makes each subsequent destination added incrementally better. Though it's not in the AAF plan, Naples is in the state's plan, and I cannot help but wonder if something might not happen there in the (rather long) long run.

FEC has been doing a lot of work on their tracks between Jacksonville and St. Augustine replacing ties etc. There has been "talk" of commuter service between Jacksonville and St. Augustine as well as Jacksonville to Green Cove Springs along the A-line, but there is no funding so I wouldn't hold my breath. Both areas have had a lot of development is recent years and commuter trains would help alieviate traffic,however, people do not support public transportation of any kind in Northeast Florida. Many don't know that Amtrak even serves Jacksonville

 

[Bus Nut]

I'm sure they have this all figured out, but where is FEC getting the money to do this? I know they are sort of "Independently wealthy," but this report shows operating losses and profits that are barely modest for a company about to put out the expenditure they are.

Good question. You're not the only one wondering.

As for kindergarten walk boarding, that's gotta go. No need for it here!

What is so terrible about the train queue?

Finally, I still don't see the benefit in training into Orlando. What good is a fast journey if it takes an additional hour (public transit) or $50+ (taxi) or so to get the last 5 miles to where you're going?

The station is going to be colocated with the car rental outlets. That would work for business trips.

I expect when this service gets going some enterprising sorts will start feeder coach lines to the HSR station as well, unless the airport authority gets too greedy.

 

[Bus Nut]

Brian_tampa,Those numbers often miss one key point...namely, that the rail system is unlikely to capture 100% of the "potential" market. This is especially true on shorter trips, which is what I've long suspected was going to be a hassle for the Orlampa project in a vacuum (not much time is actually saved, Orlando's not that far off, and neither city has a great transit system). Of your "potential" riders, a certain share are always going to drive...notice that the ridership estimates for phase two are nowhere near those market sizes. Central FL-Tampa is the largest of those potential markets...but it's also the one likely to see some of the lowest utilization on the list since it's almost too short for intercity rail (<90 miles, <90 minutes) plus the transit issue. Especially trying to get folks to pay "intercity" rates for travel seems a bit unlikely at the moment...though if congestion gets too bad, who knows.

As part of a larger system, and with SunRail in the mix, I think the operation has promise. I just do not buy the super-high ridership estimates that have flown around many times.

The ridership estimates are just that. I was using them to do a comparison of whether AAF would consider Jacksonville or Tampa for their first expansion. I do agree that any ridership study has been shown in the past to overestimate actual ridership numbers, especially in a state like Florida where public transit really is bad. That being said, I do believe that AAF has done their homework on the future potential routes. I just can't see where Jacksonville would be the next expansion target. Jacksonville to orlando is also a relatively short distance (145 miles vs 100 miles tampa bay to orlando) unlike Orlando or Tampa to south Florida. I would say the primary market will be Tampa bay/Orlando to S Florida. Jacksonville to S Florida really doesn't compare to the that market segment IMO. I am pretty much discounting the Tampa bay to Orlando market as that would be minimal as you suggest, just as I believe Jacksonville to Orlando will be as well. Maybe if Amtrak ever brings back frequent connections to the north of Jacksonville (say, to Atlanta or Charlotte perhaps as well as to traditional northeast cities?) then AAF will do well in Jacksonville. But then, AAF has stated they do not want anything to do with Amtrak. Time will tell.

The main issue is that driving between Tampa and Orlando is absolute hell, whereas driving to Jacksonville is pretty easy and quick. Anecdotally, plenty of supposedly "car-loving" Floridians have expressed to me how mad they are at Rick Scott for cancelling the Tampa-Orlando project. Presumably a government project in this area would have had multiple Orlando and Tampa regional stops and pretty much not stopped in between. As for transit being terrible, really depends where it is you need to go. I would expect the regional transit to start running bus feeders into each end which would enhance potential ridership.

Also, don't discount how many of these trips have friends or family on either end who could pick up and drop off. Wouldn't be that different from the PNRs that intercity coaches in Florida use.

There are some plans being floated for light rail in Orange County and in the St Pete and HART service areas, but more progress will have to be made locally for those to go forward.

 

[Anderson]

My understanding on the Orlampa project is that it would have stopped at:
-OIA

-I-Drive

-Disney (presuming it followed one alignment that was suggested)

-Lakeland

-Tampa

There might have been a second Tampa-area stop, but that was about it for the stops, and IIRC it was going to be set up so that some trains would skip Lakeland. Now, a real mess would have emerged when there was inevitably an attempt to start up commuter services on that line, in part or in whole. Let's face it, there's likely to be plenty of growth in that general area...commuter rail proposals would be inevitable, all the moreso with a working line the state presumably controlled in the region.

One other nice thing about the Orlando airport is that there's a (very fine) Hyatt right there, too. It may not be a massive plus, but the presence of an "actual" on-site hotel that will presumably be connected to the train station via the airport certainly won't hurt with the later train arrivals/earlier departures.

 

[user 1215]

As for kindergarten walk boarding, that's gotta go. No need for it here!

What is so terrible about the train queue?

There is nothing inherently wrong with the train queue - if you are a cow. I grew up in Japan where platforms that can accomodate 1000's of people were the norm. You buy your ticket, enter the platform, and when the train doors open, you board. Much the same as most commuter service here in the US works - only we can't seem to do that with Amtrak. Varying consists, manual doors (!), reserved tickets, but not reserved seating, sleepers on the back, sleepers on the front.... I can't figure out how foreign tourists here can figure it out.

Finally, I still don't see the benefit in training into Orlando. What good is a fast journey if it takes an additional hour (public transit) or $50+ (taxi) or so to get the last 5 miles to where you're going?

The station is going to be colocated with the car rental outlets. That would work for business trips.

I expect when this service gets going some enterprising sorts will start feeder coach lines to the HSR station as well, unless the airport authority gets too greedy.

Why take the train then? Sure, some won't fly - but you're not going to compete with MIA-MCO air traffic; you're competing with the car. I visited NYC a couple months ago and took the train because I wanted to. I didn't need a rental car; after 17 hours of train, public transit was sufficient. After riding a train for just over a couple hours, if you have to a) rent a car, or b) ride a bus, you begin to wonder why you took the train to begin with. Might as well have flown.

 

[Brian_tampa]

IIRC, the whole affair is further owned by these guys:http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fig&ql=1Fortress Investment Group. It's a hedge fund-esque operation, so I'm guessing there's a lot of homework going on here. Also, who knows what (aside from FECR) might be owned by FIG in Florida...it's entirely possible that there's a complex set of transactions that are not entirely apparent at the present (i.e. FIG-run hedge funds owning real estate near station sites). It's also possible that this isn't the case; I have no idea which direction (above or below) the impetus is coming from. That said...from what I can tell, the project is rather competent.

On the OIA location for the terminal:

(1) SunRail is putting in a connection to the airport. This really should have been a no-brainer when SunRail started (for non-tourist trips, it's likely to be a slam dunk in terms of ridership...and for tourists not staying in the resort areas and/or locals going to the airport, it seems like a winner), but my understanding (possibly flawed) is that FEC and the Orlando folks are pushing ahead with it.

(2) OIA is where you get a rental car, can get a connection to Disney (for now), etc. In short, it's a good hub for traffic going both ways.

(3) It also makes sense in the context of wanting to go through Orlando to Tampa rather than just going to Orlando. Between the pre-existing HSR ROW plans and the ROW along the Beeline, there's not a bunch of expensive demolition work that'd be needed to knock a new line through town, nor a messy backup move into or out of the city (not to mention lost running time going in and out even if you could do a "quickie wye").

(4) In connection with (3), it seems likely that you're going to get the Tampa extension running by Disney...and if Disney follows through with their plans for the HSR line (i.e. to rework their shuttles and direct folks onto the train, likely just doing some limited baggage handling either at OIA or "just" at Disney "proper"), the ridership potential there (and indeed, potentially from Tampa as well) is substantial.

In point 4 you talked about potential ridership. Here is a table showing the projected intercity trips (all modes) between areas of Florida that was in the FDOT report labelled "2006 Florida Freight and Passenger Rail Plan" from page 5-22:

Table 5.9 Potential Travel Markets for Intercity Passenger Rail Service

Person-Trips (Millions)

Intercity Travel Markets

Existing Rail Corridor

to be Potentially Used

to Support Proposed

Markets Year 2000 Year 2020 Year 2040

Southeast Florida – Central Florida SFRC/CSXT 9.45 18.42 30.39

Southeast Florida – Tampa Bay SFRC/CSXT/I-4 4.85 8.54 14.09

Southeast Florida – Northeast Florida SFRC/FEC 1.30 2.28 3.77

Central Florida – Tampa Bay CSXT/I-4 14.16 29.16 48.12

Central Florida – Northeast Florida CSXT/I-4 3.54 7.32 12.08

Tampa Bay – Northeast Florida CSXT/I-4 1.55 2.91 4.80

Source: Florida Intercity Passenger Rail Vision Plan, Draft Executive Report, Florida Department of

Transportation, August 2006.

I know there was a later report (I can't seem to find it) that updated and expanded on this and that pretty much used the same passenger trip numbers. Also in the report on page 5-23 you will see that AAF is basically following what FDOT called the "Coastal Route" in their plans. It says to use the FECR, Beach Line, and I-4 ROW's. I am sure AAF is aware of all of these previous reports and studies - probably a big reason why they decided to research this project in the first place.

If you look at the numbers you will see that between South Florida and the combined TampaBay/Central Florida areas there are projected to be about 27 million trips in 2020. Tampa Bay to Orlando alone is also a big market too. I would use these numbers for relative comparison. But you can see how between Northeast Florida to everywhere else is about 12 million trips in 2020. This is a big reason why I personally think that AAF will work on connecting Tampa before Jacksonville, even though the cost to build will be higher. Orlando to Tampa is less than half the distance of Cocoa to Jacksonville, but requires new ROW (most likely will follow the exact same route as the proposed HSR) and tracks.

I finally found the 2006 Florida Intercity Passenger Rail Vision Plan document:

http://www.dot.state.fl.us/rail/Publications/Plans/06VisionPlan/ExecReportFinal.pdf

In the report on pages 11-12 it describes a "Coastal Route" which is basically what AAF is planning with the difference being a change in routes between WPB and MIA. The first phase had service to Jacksonville as well as Orlando. It is an old report but I believe that the basic ideas in it are still valid.

 

[Nathanael]

I think they are also doing the holding area process due to concerns about liability. They don't want customers on the platforms just feet away from an active freight railroad!

Insanity. If there's actually a real liability issue there, then the government should make it go away: a railroad simply should not be liable for people jumping in front of trains, or being pushed. Unless they overcrowd the platforms... and if they're doing that, then holding pens are an even worse idea as they'll also overcrowd the holding pens and violate the fire code and so on...

Nothing wrong with ticket gates, of course. The part that's very very wrong is "passengers will only be allowed on the platform 5 minutes before train arrival".

 

[Brian_tampa]

I think they are also doing the holding area process due to concerns about liability. They don't want customers on the platforms just feet away from an active freight railroad!

Insanity. If there's actually a real liability issue there, then the government should make it go away: a railroad simply should not be liable for people jumping in front of trains, or being pushed. Unless they overcrowd the platforms... and if they're doing that, then holding pens are an even worse idea as they'll also overcrowd the holding pens and violate the fire code and so on...Nothing wrong with ticket gates, of course. The part that's very very wrong is "passengers will only be allowed on the platform 5 minutes before train arrival".

I get it that it would be nice from a railfan's perspective that unlimited access to station platforms is desirable. However, most all US passenger rail operations are run by government entities. Typically, it is much harder to successfully sue a governent agency for negligence than it is to win a case against a private corporation. As a private company, it is completely within AAF's rights to control access to their railroad. I am not aware of any law here in Florida that would exempt AAF from legal liability in a situation where a customer was either pushed or accidentally fell into the path of a train while waiting to board a passenger train. I would assume that AAF will build their stations such that any occupied waiting room will allow room for the capacity of a fully sold out train. I am not saying that I agree with their policies, just that I can understand where they are coming from. 2013 is not the same as 1943 in this country! Common sense went out the window a long time ago. About the same time that lawyers started sueing on behalf of people that refused to take personal responsibility for their actions.

 

[Brian_tampa]

As expected, AAF's RRIF loan is for the Miami to West Palm Beach segment. It is for 632 million dollars. Additional RRIF loan applications are expected for other sections. This link is to a solicitation by the GAO for "financial assessment services" related to the loan application. I assume that this means that AAF's loan application has made progress within the FRA. I had heard a couple of weeks ago that they had overcome the "buy American" hurdle that DesertXpress was unable to clear. I hope this means that AAF is one step closer to construction on this segment.

https://www.fbo.gov/?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=27aa15722f4bfe86b874abf0b4087f6a&tab=core&_cview=0

 

[me_little_me]

Hey, folks, we're talking Florida here! They will probably use the Disney method. Everyone lines up to get on and is put in rows by each door. Meanwhile those getting off the train line up before the train arrives. As soon as the train stops, everyone getting off goes out one set of doors on one side of the train then immediately the doors open for the new arrivals.

Handicapped have a special line so they enter before the regular customers.

"Those going to WPB please line up under the Mickey sign. Orlando passengers line up where Goofy is". :giggle: :giggle: :giggle:

 

[user 1215]

"Please stand clear of the doors. Por favor, mantenganse alejadro de las puertas."

 

[Anderson]

Hey, folks, we're talking Florida here! They will probably use the Disney method. Everyone lines up to get on and is put in rows by each door. Meanwhile those getting off the train line up before the train arrives. As soon as the train stops, everyone getting off goes out one set of doors on one side of the train then immediately the doors open for the new arrivals.
Handicapped have a special line so they enter before the regular customers.

"Those going to WPB please line up under the Mickey sign. Orlando passengers line up where Goofy is". :giggle: :giggle: :giggle:

Eh, Orlando will be under Donald. Security belongs under Goofy. :giggle:

 

[Brian_tampa]

Looks like the preliminary ticket costs for MIA to ORL trip on AAF will be around 85 dollars. MIA to WPB will be around 20 dollars. Here is the link to miaimtodaynews.com article:

http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/130822/story2.shtml

Also I recently saw an article where AAF is bidding on a vacant lot (2 city blocks) to build a 23 story residential/office/retail center one block west of the MIA station. Here is the link from exmiami.org at:

http://exmiami.org/index.php/all-aboard-florida-cra-application-hints-at-downtown-station-plans/

The Details are here:

http://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/161596245

It is a 110 million dollar development. See the picture on page 13 of the scribd.com file. It shows several large buildings on the site of the MIA station. The tall building (in white) to the far north is a new proposed convention center and hotel to be connected via walkways to the station. That is a being developed by another developer. I believe the rest of the "white ghost" buildings are part of FECI developments related to AAF. Also note the letter of recommendation on page 80 from Bank of America that FECI has "sufficient liquidity in the high 8 figures" at that bank alone.

 

[Brian_tampa]

A new contract between OOCEA and the Deseret Ranches has been written and to be presented for approval at the OOCEA board meeting next week. This is the Declaration document:

https://www.oocea.com/Portals/0/2013%20board%20meetings/August%2028/Deseret%20-%20Declaration.pdf

It appears that alot has changed since the first agreement last month. It seems that Deseret Ranches wants the right to construct an "Independent Track" for the purpose of freight and/or commuter rail services. No more than 2 passenger tracks would be allowed in the ROW. However, AAF would be allowed to use spurs that connect to the freight track, if those are built. The way it reads, AAF would not be allowed to carry passengers between Brevard county and the Orlando airport without prior approval from Deseret Ranches. Presumably that would happen if they thought it would benefit their development plans. Not sure how the OOCEA fits in with commuter service, as they have recently claimed that AAF will take away toll revenue by diverting traffic onto e train. However, FECR or CSX could be allowed to operate freight service! Sounds like ALOT of horse trading back and forth between Deseret, OOCEA, and FECI (representing the interests of both AAF and FECR).

There is also the contract document that spells out the payment of 12 million for the property by OOCEA. What is interesting is that it no longer specifically mentions AAF in regards to who pays the 58 million dollar amount to be put into escrow for the future expansion of the Osceola County Parkway. That extension would greatly benefit the Deseret Ranches development plans.

https://www.oocea.com/Portals/0/2013%20board%20meetings/August%2028/Deseret%20-%20Contract%20of%20Sale.pdf

 

[Anderson]

It sounds like Deseret Ranches is willing to put some serious money behind potential commuter service and associated developments. Considering the amount of money that they likely have at their disposal (and the value of parts of their land in conjunction with development like that), I'm not shocked.

 

[chrsjrcj]

Tri-Rail is $6.90 plus $2 Metrorail to get to downtown Miami...so $8.90 total. Hopefully AAF has enough amenities in addition to a one seat ~60 minute ride from West Palm Beach to downtown Miami (according to Google Maps, Tri-Rail+Metrorail is 140 minutes total and driving is 70 minutes + whatever delays from rush hour traffic) to attract the business commuter. Though, I imagine WiFi (Tri-Rail experimented with this in one of their cars, but I'm guessing it ended up being too expensive since it was never fully implemented), meal service, and arriving right at downtown without having to pay for parking will be pretty darn appealing.

Looks like Amtrak fares from Miami to Orlando are about half the price of what AAF expects to charge, but AAF will also be 2 hours faster (4 if you're taking the Star) and offer much more frequent service. Expedia has the cheapest flight from MIA to MCO at about $140 (plus whatever fees airlines charge). So extremely competitive there.

Hopefully the project is a success, and I'm very optimistic about the West Palm Beach to Miami market. I love riding trains (when I ride Amtrak, I ride the Star if I can, so I can get the extra 2 hours of train time), but transferring from Tri-Rail to Metrorail to get to downtown Miami is awful! Every time I do the transfer, I end up missing the Metrorail train that arrives a few minutes after the southbound Tri-Rail train, because I spent the time I could've taken to walk up the stairs, trying to buy a ticket just to enter the turnstiles (I'm an occasional rider, and the new E-Card system which supposedly eliminates the need to buy another ticket is too confusing, so I always get a paper Tri-Rail ticket). Now I'm stuck waiting for the next train during off peak hours (about 10-15 minutes), then another 20 minute ride to Government Center (which feels like an eternity making stops every minute), and finally changing to Metromover. I'll gladly spend the extra $12 or so for a one seat ride to downtown, then make the (free) transfer to Metromover.

 

[Anderson]

Two observations:
(1) The corridor is roughly comparable to the services in VA both in terms of the market situation and in terms of travel times and road conditions. The only difference is that FEC is going to be a good bit faster.

(2) Actually, in terms of distance and speed, the FEC is going to be on par with the Acelas (and would probably beat them out but for being stuck with "only" 79 MPH service for a decent part of the route).

(3) FEC's revenue is presumably somewhere in the $300 million range right now. It can't be over $400 million (that would likely push it to Class I), though from what I can tell there's some fuzzy room between the "automatic class I" range and the "automatic class II" range to avoid roads switching back and forth. This is relevant because it looks like if the service runs as planned, passenger revenue could be quite close to 50% of the railroad's income ($85*3 million passengers is $255m), and that it will likely pass 50% should Tampa come to pass. From what I've heard, historically that's almost unheard of.

I mention point 3 because if you add in access fees and whatnot for a possible Tri-Rail service as well, I think there's a good chance that FEC might end up making a transition to being primarily a passenger rail company running significant freight on the side rather than the other way around, at least in terms of the company's main revenue source. How profitable the passenger service is (in terms of operating income and in terms of capital costs alike) is to be seen...but I think there's the potential to see a very unusual transition here in historical terms. Then again, there aren't too many "independent" railroads that have the majority of their right-of-way in both the condition that FEC's is (straight, few curves, etc.) and in an area as built-up as the areas along FEC's line.