Brightline Trains Florida discussion

[Paulus]

Not all the passengers are going the full length; they were anticipating total fares around $145 million. Operating revenue in 2012 was $246.8 million with a net loss of 13.3 million.

 

[Anderson]

Point taken, but they also seem to have a lower passenger count than I had thought:

With one-way tickets estimated in the $100 range, that would mean the Coral Gables-based company is expecting to carry nearly 1.5 million passengers between Central and South Florida within three years of its inaugural trip in 2015.

Moreover, I'm looking at Tampa-Orlando-Miami, not just Orlando-Miami...and it seems, at least from what I read in the article, that I got the ratio roughly right, just not what I needed to multiply the ratio by. $145m/1.5m is about $96/passenger.

 

[Paulus]

Point taken, but they also seem to have a lower passenger count than I had thought:

With one-way tickets estimated in the $100 range, that would mean the Coral Gables-based company is expecting to carry nearly 1.5 million passengers between Central and South Florida within three years of its inaugural trip in 2015.

Moreover, I'm looking at Tampa-Orlando-Miami, not just Orlando-Miami...and it seems, at least from what I read in the article, that I got the ratio roughly right, just not what I needed to multiply the ratio by. $145m/1.5m is about $96/passenger.

That's just the reporter making the exact same mistake.

 

[me_little_me]

Isn't that about the same proportion as the difference between NJT or SEPTA or Metro-North vs Amtrak where both the commuter and Amtrak trains go between the same cities?

e.g. in July, we went between PHL and Paoli on SEPTA and the regular fare was, I believe, $4 each way (we paid $1 as seniors) vs $8 for Amtrak (-15% for seniors).

Tri-Rail is $6.90 plus $2 Metrorail to get to downtown Miami...so $8.90 total. Hopefully AAF has enough amenities in addition to a one seat ~60 minute ride from West Palm Beach to downtown Miami (according to Google Maps, Tri-Rail+Metrorail is 140 minutes total and driving is 70 minutes + whatever delays from rush hour traffic) to attract the business commuter. Though, I imagine WiFi (Tri-Rail experimented with this in one of their cars, but I'm guessing it ended up being too expensive since it was never fully implemented), meal service, and arriving right at downtown without having to pay for parking will be pretty darn appealing.

 

[Brian_tampa]

The wonders of the Google Wayback machine! I happen to be reading today, again, AAF's website and their FAQ page. It struck me that they had changed the locomotive description to now say:

All Aboard Florida will select modern equipment that is compliant with the Federal Railroad Administration, is certified to operate at higher sustained speeds, and utilizes clean-diesel engines that meet stringent Tier 4 federal emission standards.

Now, as of August 1, 2013 on the Google Wayback cache webpage the AAF website was saying "to meet stringent Tier 3 ... standards". I wonder if this change is because the startup date has slipped and they recognize that they will need to buy 2015 MY locomotives in any case or does it mean AAF has now made a recent decision on the train sets and they can finalize the Tier standards level their equipment will be attaining?

 

[jis]

Tier 3 allows them to potentially buy equipment that needs much less modification to meet FRA requirements than meeting the old Tier 1 standard.

 

[Brian_tampa]

Tier 3 allows them to potentially buy equipment that needs much less modification to meet FRA requirements than meeting the old Tier 1 standard.

It is my understanding AAF will buy all new equipment - meaning it will be manufactured to the model year standards it is produced in. And if it is made in 2015, then any locomotives manufactured that year will have to meet Tier 4 standards. I am aware of only one other order for passenger locomotives that meet Tier 4, I believe that was for the Southern California commuter rail operation. Here is the link, and F125 Spirit series can run at 125mph.

 

[Anderson]

It's interesting...assuming 3m passengers and $145m in ticket revenue you get $48.33 in PPR. This is obviously a rough number, but it's interesting because it implies not only a lot of WPB-MIA traffic, but a huge share of the traffic at rates well under $100/ticket.

Even absent a Tri-Rail contract, I wouldn't be surprised if we were to see some sort of service addition WPB-MIA, simply due to the size of that market if this /does/ take off as a high-end, high-speed commuter service. Of interest on /this/ front is the following:
-Assuming one million passengers from the Miami area to Orlando at $100 each, you remove $100m from the $145m and remove 1m passengers from an estimate of 3m. This gives you 2m passengers on $45m in revenue, for PPR of $22.50.
-Even if we lowball the Orlando ticket price average down to $80, this would offer an average price of $32.50 (presumably inclusive of some higher WPB-ORL and whatnot fares).

Tri-Rail is currently $6.90 one-way on a weekday. To put a quick comparison down, a Trenton-NYP one-way ticket on NJT is $15.50. TRE-NYP on Amtrak is $31 with a two-week advance purchase, or $41/59/72/82 under normal conditions. This translates as $14 for an advance purchase on FEC, up to something in the $35 range. BC is another $20 for the trip. One other thing: Amtrak only drops a couple of minutes off the express NJT trains (though it's closer to 30 minutes off most of the non-expresses, to say nothing of the late-night locals). To my knowledge, Tri-Rail has no equivalent to those expresses...all the trains take around 100 minutes end-to-end (going to the Miami Airport stop from WPB).

So, for the FEC, seeing a fare of $20-ish for a ride that saves nearly an hour getting into downtown once you deal with other transfers seems likely to succeed. It also seems possible that they'd be able to sell a modest number of tickets MIA-FLL or FLL-WPB at a similar price...time savings would be closer to half an hour, but (A) you eliminate a transfer and (B) it's still half an hour or more in a lot of cases.

 

[Aaron]

Tier 3 allows them to potentially buy equipment that needs much less modification to meet FRA requirements than meeting the old Tier 1 standard.

It sounds like you're talking about the FRA crashworthiness standards, and Brian_tampa was talking about EPA diesel emission standards. It's confusing, because they both use "Tier 1", "Tier 2", etc.

The newest diesel emissions standards from the EPA are "Tier 4", and it's my understanding that a locomotive built in MY 2015 would have to be compliant with them.

 

[Brian_tampa]

A nice informational article about AAF and FECI. One interesting new bit of info from AAF themselves: as I and many have suspected, the interest in the MIA to Orlando route shown by construction/operator teams bidding on the failed HSR project between Tampa and Orlando was what got FECI to think about creating a passenger service for themselves.

http://www.floridatrend.com/article/16021/ticket-to-ride-on-fecis-all-aboard-florida?page=1

 

[jphjaxfl]

A nice informational article about AAF and FECI. One interesting new bit of info from AAF themselves: as I and many have suspected, the interest in the MIA to Orlando route shown by construction/operator teams bidding on the failed HSR project between Tampa and Orlando was what got FECI to think about creating a passenger service for themselves.
http://www.floridatrend.com/article/16021/ticket-to-ride-on-fecis-all-aboard-florida?page=1

Great Article, Brian, Thanks for sharing. I am looking forward to riding the train in a couple of years.

 

[jphjaxfl]

If the AAF/FECI model is successful, ,it may be tried in other areas with similar demographics. This is not a freight railroad operating passenger trains, rather, a development company that has trackage rights developing needed transportation system and the areas that access the transportation system. There is another post about "Could this save Amtrak? regarding development around Amtrak Stations. FECI is really thinking outside the box with AAF. Is Amtrak capable of doing that?

 

[The Davy Crockett]

If the AAF/FECI model is successful, ,it may be tried in other areas with similar demographics. This is not a freight railroad operating passenger trains, rather, a development company that has trackage rights developing needed transportation system and the areas that access the transportation system. There is another post about "Could this save Amtrak? regarding development around Amtrak Stations. FECI is really thinking outside the box with AAF. Is Amtrak capable of doing that?

Something like Baltimore?

 

[cirdan]

FECI is really thinking outside the box with AAF. Is Amtrak capable of doing that?

FECI is spending their own money and developing their own real estate.

Amtrak doesn't have that much real estate, and if they set out to buy the real estate first, we would very soon have all the Amtrak haters shouting and jumping about tax dollars being used for such a venture. I think it's a "you lose if you do and you lose if you don't" scenario.

 

[jphjaxfl]

I agree that FECI and Amtrak are 2 different entities, but Amtrak owns facilities on the NEC and Chicago Union Station. Could they do more with what they do own? Are there other FECI models that might develop some rail transportation systems such as CAHSR, for example.

 

[The Davy Crockett]

Could they do more with what they do own?

Ummmm... like they are doing in Baltimore? (This is a link)

Why do I have deja vu all over again? :giggle:

 

[MattW]

I don't think the circumstances that allow FECI to profitably build this system exist anywhere else. Amtrak owns bits and pieces of real estate, but not much. There also aren't any other freight railroads that run through as dense an area as the Foridian East Coast AND own enough real estate to make the train worth it.

 

[Anderson]

Well, there's also the lack of meaningful Amtrak competition as well. I suspect there are places that, if they wanted to, the Class Is could make a run of some corridor services and make them work...but in most cases, it's not like Amtrak would be interested in "getting out of the way" for them.

 

[The Davy Crockett]

I suspect there are places that, if they wanted to, the Class Is could make a run of some corridor services and make them work...

Or maybe they still feel like James Hill, 'The Empire Builder,' did, who compared passenger trains to the male teat.

He said that neither were functional or particularly pretty! :giggle:

 

[George Harris]

I agree that FECI and Amtrak are 2 different entities, but Amtrak owns facilities on the NEC and Chicago Union Station. Could they do more with what they do own? Are there other FECI models that might develop some rail transportation systems such as CAHSR, for example.

Since the Pennsylvania Railroad could not turn a profit on the Northeast Corridor I would regard the chance of anybody else doing so as essentially nil. I think they were close to break even on variable costs, but at the time of the advent of Amtrak were in need of major investment in both equipment and fixed facilities to keep going.

On the other hand, that being said, there were a lot of things they could have done better. I remember the first time I saw it in 1970 with their many manned towers being just one example, my though was, "Suddenly it is 1920."

 

[Anderson]

I agree that FECI and Amtrak are 2 different entities, but Amtrak owns facilities on the NEC and Chicago Union Station. Could they do more with what they do own? Are there other FECI models that might develop some rail transportation systems such as CAHSR, for example.

Since the Pennsylvania Railroad could not turn a profit on the Northeast Corridor I would regard the chance of anybody else doing so as essentially nil. I think they were close to break even on variable costs, but at the time of the advent of Amtrak were in need of major investment in both equipment and fixed facilities to keep going.

On the other hand, that being said, there were a lot of things they could have done better. I remember the first time I saw it in 1970 with their many manned towers being just one example, my though was, "Suddenly it is 1920."

Well, and in the last 40-50 years there have been a lot of shifts. I'm not sure what the situation was with the NEC for the Pennsy in the 1920s (or 1940s/early 50s), but by the time you got to the late 60s you had a hard feedback loop going that sent ridership off a cliff due to bad track, rough rides, and an inability to maintain pricing points. High labor costs and bad maintenance practices didn't help, either, and neither did the proliferation of expressways.

 

[me_little_me]

I agree that FECI and Amtrak are 2 different entities, but Amtrak owns facilities on the NEC and Chicago Union Station. Could they do more with what they do own? Are there other FECI models that might develop some rail transportation systems such as CAHSR, for example.

Since the Pennsylvania Railroad could not turn a profit on the Northeast Corridor I would regard the chance of anybody else doing so as essentially nil. I think they were close to break even on variable costs, but at the time of the advent of Amtrak were in need of major investment in both equipment and fixed facilities to keep going.

This is the same Pennsylvania Railroad that couldn't even make it as a freight line, right?

Per Wikipedia:

In 1968, PRR merged with rival NYC to form the Penn Central Transportation Company, which filed for bankruptcy within two years.

 

[Brian_tampa]

An interesting account of travel on Amtrak in south Florida and general info on AAF at biscaynetimes.com

http://www.biscaynetimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1579%3Alife-in-the-rail-world&catid=46%3Afeatures&Itemid=1

the writer has obviously done his homework and pretty much sums up where AAF is at now.

 

[The Davy Crockett]

From miamitodaynews.com:

... according to Rusty Roberts, vice president of corporate development [for FECI]... trains will be less than 1,000 feet long, have two locomotives and seven passenger cars...

This is the first I've heard this, though I'm not sure if it is buried in this thread somewhere.

 

[Brian_tampa]

From http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/130822/story2.shtml]miamitodaynews.com[/url]:

... according to Rusty Roberts, vice president of corporate development [for FECI]... trains will be less than 1,000 feet long, have two locomotives and seven passenger cars...

This is the first I've heard this, though I'm not sure if it is buried in this thread somewhere.

Yes it was buried alright! It was in the draft EA report on page 19 from last November (and possibly in other documents as well). See the footnote from page 19 below:
Link to EA report:

http://www.allaboardflorida.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/EnvironmentalAssessment_AAF_Passenger_Rail_Project_from_WPB_to_Miami.pdf

Page 19 footnote:

"Note that the length of 725 feet contemplates a train set consisting of two locomotives, each 65 feet long, and seven passenger cars, each 85 feet long, while the approximately 900 feet contemplates the possible addition of two passenger cars to the set."

I have seen different AAF spokesmen talk about 7 and 9 car trains. Also, they have mentioned running special event trains as well. I believe the standard platform design calls for 1000 foot long platforms for AAF trains. I don't recall where I read that off hand.