Derailment of Cascades #501, DuPont WA, 2017-12-18

[Lonestar648]

In viewing the media stories on line, I found ABC had a video that shows the position of the car and how they came to rest they way they did. The video shows the lead engine going off the track at the beginning of the bridge. Looking at the photos, post crash, clearly shows the tracks in the dirt long before the bridge. Also, some stories are equating the Conductor and the Engineer as the same person. It looks like the media is ready to convict. Waiting for the NTSB takes too long for the media in order to get the facts.

 

[jamess]

The talk of the day is about PTC...

But isnt there an issue with the speed signs used by the railroad? If the engineer didn't see them, that indicates they're too small, or badly placed, or both. Same in Philadelphia.

When a highway goes from 75mph to 30mph, it is signed to hell and back. Maybe the railroads should do a better job with their signage?

Also, it makes no sense that if youre going to spend so much money redoing a track for passenger, you'd leave a 30mph bridge in 79mph territory, when the topology clearly allows for a direct route.

Critical difference is that engineers are required to be qualified on a given territory. This isn't like you or me driving an unfamiliar road and missing a sign; Railroad personnel would already be well aware of the upcoming speed restriction.

Well thats the theory, it clearly hasnt panned out as planned.

Spending another $100 on a big *** speed sign seems like the prudent option when switching from 79mph to 30mph.

 

[dlagrua]

We are only talking theories here but the trains speed going into the curve has to be an issue. This accident gives credence to the argument that all Amtrak trains should have both an engineer and a conductor in the cab. It only takes one distraction for an accident to happen. This is certainly better than placing the burden on one man. Isn't this why planes have a co-pilot? It also needs to be asked how many times the engineer has run this route and how familiar he was with it?

 

[crescent-zephyr]

It seems very odd that brakes were never applied.. A 30 mph curve could have probably handled a 40-50 mph train... For sure it wouldn't have been this bad.

While situational awareness may have led the engineer on a new route to be going too fast leading up to the curve... You would think seeing the curve itself would have led to a brake application (as was the case in Pennsylvania).

I am in no way placing blame on anyone... It just seems very odd.

I'll also echo GML's thoughts that I wouldn't expect the engine to derail the way it did... I would have expected it to start into the curve way more than it did.

In the year(s) to come this will be a very interesting accident report to read.

 

[jis]

The line below is tangent to the track and ends up at about the position of the lead locomotive:

Scene 2.jpg

Imagery date per Google Earth is 5/22/17 and appears to be more recent than the one in Post # 196.

The Charger destroyed the signal tower that can be seen on that photo - before the added yellow line.We can see the destroyed tower, then where the loco then glanced to the left a bit off the embankment past the tower and in front of the silver box, in the photo in post # 167.

The Charger took out some trees and angled left a bit down onto I-5.

That all makes it look like the train came off the rails at the very start of the curve.

We do not know exactly what hit that tower and knocked it down. It could have been a jackknifing car or the locomotive. We will have to await NTSB's reconstruction of events.

Here is a neat simulation that has been presented based on the available photographing evidence.



be aware though that this is not based on deep analysis. For that we have to wait for the NTSB to complete its work.

 

[jamess]

While situational awareness may have led the engineer on a new route to be going too fast leading up to the curve... You would think seeing the curve itself would have led to a brake application (as was the case in Pennsylvania).

I feel that because the route is new, you'd be extra aware of your surroundings, especially knowing the media and suits are involved.

People "zone out" when a task becomes redundant and they become over confident.

 

[greatcats]

Don’t want to speculate too much, but a previous poster mentioned the engineer might have been under pressure to hurry up. I see the time for Olympia-Lacey is 7:15 am for Train 501. The accident occurred at 7:34 am, about 12-14 miles from Olympia. That would mean the train was running at least 30 Minutes late.

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[Rover]

The inaugural run was suppose to highlight just how much time the $180.7 million project shaved off the old/previous travel time. I have to wonder if the engineer was under pressure to do the run as fast as possible, so that the supporters could brag (show off) that the project was indeed worth it.

Well now, that, if true, reminds me of the time pressures of a Captain Edward John Smith on the inaugural run of the White Star Line ship, the RMS Titanic. But I digress...

 

[Cho Cho Charlie]

The weird thing about this crash is not that the train derailed; its where it derailed. The force overload happened too quickly. The locomotive should have entered the curve too fast, leaned a bit too far, and then overcome its wheel flange, leaving the track at an angle and leaning somewhat out of the curve, pulling cars with it. The effect would be even more pronounced if the brakes were applied at some point, but it should have happened with out braking force, too.

That is not what happened. What appears to have happened is the locomotive left the track almost immediately tangential to the curve, as if its wheels never evenbriefly followed the curve. 80 is nowhere near fast enough for that. The locomotive appears to have gone straight, dead arrow straight, right off of the track. It didnt appear to barrel roll. A few cars tried to follow it, but at some point the rest of the cars seem to follow the curve.

The physics before me do not make sense without some kind of external actor or equipment malfunction causing bizarre attitude prior to or upon the train entering that curve.

As always, news reports should be taken lightly, but I just saw a news guy doing a crash analysis, and he mentioned that the Charger left the tracks just where the new concrete ties end, and the old wooden ties start.

 

[PerRock]

One thing that keeps being repeated is that this was the first day Amtrak used this route. How long as Sounder been using this route? Not like seeing trains on this route was BRAND new...

Not quite, this is the first revenue run for Amtrak on this route. They've been running test trains on the line for the last week or so.

peter

 

[Ryan]

Also, Sounder doesn’t go south if Lakewood, so they wouldn’t ever traverse the site of the derailment.

 

[jis]

Another factor is that apparently there was a second person in the cab who would normally not be there. So there is the issue of distraction that is now relevant too.

I also learned that there is a pretty sharp downgrade approaching the curve, making the exercise of braking to the right speed that much more challenging. Apparently unless you start slowing down from about two miles out you are unlikely to succeed arriving at the curve at the right speed. For this there is a speed warning board two miles out.

 

[fairviewroad]

Don’t want to speculate too much, but a previous poster mentioned the engineer might have been under pressure to hurry up. I see the time for Olympia-Lacey is 7:15 am for Train 501. The accident occurred at 7:34 am, about 12-14 miles from Olympia. That would mean the train was running at least 30 Minutes late.

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It departed SEA 10 minutes late due to mechanical issue (according to a press report). It left TAC 32 minutes late.

I would assume the station stop in TAC was longer than usual due to the higher number of people detraining there. That's where quite a few media crews got off the train, having interviewed passengers between SEA and TAC (and presumably being picked up by colleagues or taking a Sounder back to SEA).

So, yeah, there may have been some internalized pressure to make up that time. I don't know for sure, but I think there's less padding in the new schedule? Before, you could leave VAN 15-20 minutes late and still essentially be on time into PDX.

 

[Ryan]

ID of one fatality released (Zach):

http://www.king5.com/mobile/article/news/local/first-amtrak-derailment-victim-identified-as-pierce-transit-employee/281-500638211

 

[jis]

ID of one fatality released (Zach):

http://www.king5.com/mobile/article/news/local/first-amtrak-derailment-victim-identified-as-pierce-transit-employee/281-500638211

Zach and Jim were best of friends, often traveling together, by train of course.

Here is an article that announces, among other things, Jim Hamre's unfortunate passing away in the accident. Announced by his brother Michael.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/19/us/amtrak-derailment-washington.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

 

[Jbpdx]

The curve is not sharp. Looks very gradual.

Have they interviewed the engineer yet? Is there video from the engine? I don’t buy the “hurry up” explanation.

If it was physical sabotage, what would be possible scenarios?

 

[jis]

The curve is not sharp. Looks very gradual.

Perhaps the route managers who posted a 30mph speed limit might disagree with you

It is a 750'/8+ degrees curve. Maybe in some books it is not sharp, bu it is plenty sharp for trying to negotiate it at 80mph.

 

[jis]

"Zack Willhoite & Jim Hamre: A Tribute to the Amtrak Crash Victims"

http://heavy.com/news/2017/12/zack-willhoite-jim-hamre-amtrak-victims-photos-derailment/

 

[daybeers]

Amtrak released a Service Disruption Alert at 9:30 AM PST (12:30 PM EST): https://www.amtrak.com/alert/service-disruption-south-of-seattle.html

 

[Cho Cho Charlie]

Have they interviewed the engineer yet? Is there video from the engine? I don’t buy the “hurry up” explanation.

All I have seen so far, is that the engineer has head injuries and his eyes are both swollen shut. IMHO, he might not be extensively grilled by authorities until those injuries have had a chance to heal a bit. Likewise, the only video mentioned so far, is from the Amtrak engine at the rear of the consist, showing only where the train has already been.

 

[fairviewroad]

Amtrak released a Service Disruption Alert at 9:30 AM PST (12:30 PM EST): https://www.amtrak.com/alert/service-disruption-south-of-seattle.html

Well, this (partially) answers the question of how they were planning to maintain the new frequency level given that one trainset will be out of service indefinitely (if not scrapped entirely).

Beginning Dec. 20, Cascades Service from Eugene to Portland, OR will be operating with substitute equipment and limited amenities, including no food service, checked baggage service, business class or bikes. Pets will still be allowed on board. Additionally, Trains 505 and 508, which were scheduled to operate as thru service between Eugene and Seattle, will now operate only between Seattle and Portland. New Trains 515 and 510 will be introduced on the segment between Portland and Eugene and will be a cross platform connection at Portland for passengers traveling north of Portland.

Any theories on what this means, specifically the "substitute equipment"? I assume it's the short Superliner set that sometimes runs between SEA and VAC when one of the Talgo sets is being worked on.

The new temporary schedule is already posted on the Amtrak website. It's marked as being effective Dec. 20 - Jan 2, but it's hard to imagine what will be different by Jan 2. The wrecked set surely won't be back in service by then?

 

[CCC1007]

Amtrak released a Service Disruption Alert at 9:30 AM PST (12:30 PM EST): https://www.amtrak.com/alert/service-disruption-south-of-seattle.html

Well, this (partially) answers the question of how they were planning to maintain the new frequency level given that one trainset will be out of service indefinitely (if not scrapped entirely).

Beginning Dec. 20, Cascades Service from Eugene to Portland, OR will be operating with substitute equipment and limited amenities, including no food service, checked baggage service, business class or bikes. Pets will still be allowed on board. Additionally, Trains 505 and 508, which were scheduled to operate as thru service between Eugene and Seattle, will now operate only between Seattle and Portland. New Trains 515 and 510 will be introduced on the segment between Portland and Eugene and will be a cross platform connection at Portland for passengers traveling north of Portland.

Any theories on what this means, specifically the "substitute equipment"? I assume it's the short Superliner set that sometimes runs between SEA and VAC when one of the Talgo sets is being worked on.

The new temporary schedule is already posted on the Amtrak website. It's marked as being effective Dec. 20 - Jan 2, but it's hard to imagine what will be different by Jan 2. The wrecked set surely won't be back in service by then?

Could they be looking to lease the Wisconsin sets as a stopgap while they look at their options?

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[Jbpdx]

Not sure if this is the same train model or what the curve radius is at the bridge. This is from Talgo for the Talgo XXI diesel tilting train:

 

[zephyr17]

One thing that keeps being repeated is that this was the first day Amtrak used this route. How long as Sounder been using this route? Not like seeing trains on this route was BRAND new...

Sounder service ends at Lakewood. Service south of Lakewood on the the Point Defiance Bypass (AKA Prarie Line), where the accident occurred, actually IS brand new.

 

[fairviewroad]

Could they be looking to lease the Wisconsin sets as a stopgap while they look at their options?

Hmmm. It's hard to imagine an arrangement like that coming together in less than 36 hours, but maybe they've put out some initial feelers. Even under the best-case scenario I find it difficult to see that equipment getting out here, and (presumably) tested on the route, in time to go into service by Jan 2.

My guess is that the Jan 2nd date allows them to get through the holiday travel period with some degree of certainty. The temporary schedule could easily be extended. There are probably others on here with a higher level of knowledge about possible options going forward.